USOUSD trade ideas
Crude Oil Market Trend Forecast for Next WeekThe oil price continued its upward trend this week, despite a brief correction on Friday. As of Friday's Asian session, Brent crude oil futures dropped by $1.57, or 2%, to $77.28 per barrel. However, the cumulative weekly gain reached 3.9%, marking three consecutive weekly increases. Geopolitical risks continued to fuel market sentiment. Oil prices surged nearly 3% on Thursday after Israel bombed Iranian nuclear targets, following Iran's missile strikes on Israel after its earlier missile attack on an Israeli hospital. The focus of the current crude oil market has shifted entirely from supply-demand fundamentals to geopolitical risks. Although Iran's crude oil exports have not been substantially disrupted, investors have started to price in the worst-case scenario. If the situation further deteriorates and affects shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz, global energy prices may face a new round of sharp volatility.
In the short term, oil prices still exhibit upward potential, with the current trend maintaining an overall upward trajectory. The MACD indicator's fast and slow lines overlap with bullish bars above the zero axis, signaling robust bullish momentum. This suggests that the medium-term trend is expected to usher in an upward rally.
you are currently struggling with losses，or are unsure which of the numerous trading strategies to follow,You have the option to join our VIP program. I will assist you and provide you with accurate trading signals, enabling you to navigate the financial markets with greater confidence and potentially achieve optimal trading results.
Trading Strategy:
buy@72.0-72.5
TP:75.0-75.5
USOIL:Sharing of the Trading Strategy for Next WeekAll the trading signals this week have resulted in profits!!! Check it!!!👉👉👉
The U.S. strike on Iranian nuclear facilities Saturday may trigger an instinctive reaction in global markets upon reopening, pushing oil prices higher and sparking a safe-haven rush. Technicals show oil has broken above previous highs while holding above prior lows, forming a volatile rebound with persistent bullish momentum. The key focus next week is whether oil can sustain its upward breakout.
Overall, crude oil remains range-bound at elevated levels, with $76 resistance overhead and $72 support below.
Trading Strategy for Next Week:
Prioritize long positions on pullbacks.
buy@72-73
TP:75-76
Share accurate trading signals daily—transform your life starting now!
👇 👇 👇 Obtain signals👉👉👉
Crude Oil Market: Geopolitical Risk Premium Soars Sharply Crude Oil Market: Geopolitical Risk Premium Soars Sharply
(1) Strait of Hormuz: Global Energy Artery in Crisis
As the gateway for 20% of global crude oil transportation, every disturbance in the Strait of Hormuz grips market nerves. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard has now deployed missile boats and mine-laying vessels at the strait's narrowest point (just 33 km). The UK Maritime Security Agency warns that Iran may adopt a "gradual blockade"—first causing shipping chaos through electronic jamming, then escalating to mine blockades.
Historical experience shows that even partial blockades can drive tanker insurance premiums up by over 900% and increase transportation costs by 50-100%. Current ultra-large crude carrier (VLCC) freight rates have risen 22% from last month, with many shipping companies evaluating routes around the Cape of Good Hope, which would extend Asian crude oil arrival times by 15-20 days.
(2) Supply Side: Production Increase Plans Meet Geopolitical Storm
Although OPEC+ plans to continue increasing production by 411,000 bpd in July, market focus has fully shifted to Middle East supply disruption risks. Iran currently maintains exports of 1.1 million bpd, but if the conflict escalates, this figure could drop to zero within 48 hours. More crucially, alternative export channels for Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and other countries (such as the East-West Pipeline) have a total capacity of only 3.5 million bpd, unable to fully compensate for the shortfall from the Strait of Hormuz blockade.
U.S. shale oil also can't solve the urgent problem: although production just hit a record 9.33 million bpd, labor shortages and rising drilling costs have caused new well investments to fall by 12%, and analysts expect production growth to slow to below 3% in the second half of the year.
(3) Demand Side: Risk Aversion Overshadows Real Weakness
Despite U.S. gasoline demand hitting a five-year seasonal low and European imports falling 5.1% year-on-year, geopolitical risks have triggered panic buying. The near-month contract price of Shanghai crude oil futures jumped 12% this week, and the SC-WTI spread turned to a premium of $3.16/bbl for the first time, reflecting Asian market concerns about regional supply disruptions. More notably, Brent crude net long positions have increased to a ten-week high, with speculative funds wildly betting on geopolitical premiums.
Analysis of crude oil trend next week, hope it helps you
USOIL buy@74~74.5
SL:72
TP:75.5~76.5
Analysis of crude oil trend next week, hope it helps you I. Next Week's Crude Oil Trend Analysis
(1) Supply Side: Gas Stations Signal Shortages, but Refineries Keep Pumping More
The supply dynamics present a paradox. OPEC+ is like a massive refinery deciding to continue increasing crude oil production by 411,000 barrels per day in July, marking the third consecutive month of output hikes. Strangely, however, U.S. gas stations (crude oil inventories) saw a sudden sharp drop in supplies last week—ending June 13, inventories fell by 11.473 million barrels, the largest decline since November last year. A closer look reveals that refineries produced more gasoline, with inventories jumping by over 5 million barrels, indicating robust oil refining but weak consumer demand for gasoline, suggesting a supply glut.
Additionally, U.S. shale oil wells may be facing headwinds. Reports suggest that U.S. shale oil production might peak in the second quarter of this year and then gradually decline in the second half. This is analogous to farmers planting fewer crops when vegetable prices are low—oil wells reduce extraction when oil prices are deemed unprofitable.
(2) Demand Side: Summer Arrives, but Where Are the Fuel-Hungry Cars?
Logically, with summer in the Northern Hemisphere, more people driving for trips should mean a peak season for gasoline demand. But reality shows U.S. gasoline demand has dropped to its lowest level for this period in five years, akin to an ice cream shop seeing fewer customers in summer. Europe’s situation is grimmer, with crude oil imports down 5.1% year on year, as they aggressively develop clean energy like wind and solar power, reducing dependence on oil.
There’s also the U.S. dollar factor. Although the dollar weakened slightly last Friday (the U.S. Dollar Index fell 0.16%), it remains relatively strong overall. This is like shopping where the price tag stays the same, but your money buys less, making purchases feel costlier. As a result, other countries may cut back on U.S. dollar-denominated crude oil purchases.
Analysis of crude oil trend next week, hope it helps you
USOIL sell@74.5~75
SL:76
TP:73.5~73
Diversion def high_accuracy_signal(df):
df = df .rolling(10).mean()
df = df .rolling(50).mean()
df = compute_rsi(df , 14)
df = df .rolling(5).mean()
df = (
(df > df ) &
(df > 55) & (df < 70) &
(df > 2 * df )
)
return df [ ]
def compute_rsi(series, period=14):
delta = series.diff()
gain = delta.where(delta > 0, 0)
loss = -delta.where(delta < 0, 0)
avg_gain = gain.rolling(period).mean()
avg_loss = loss.rolling(period).mean()
rs = avg_gain / avg_loss
rsi = 100 - (100 / (1 + rs))
return rsi
USOIL: Strong Bearish Sentiment! Short!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse USOIL together☺️
The in-trend continuation seems likely as the current long-term trend appears to be strong, and price is holding below a key level of 73.969 So a bearish continuation seems plausible, targeting the next low. We should enter on confirmation, and place a stop-loss beyond the recent swing level.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
WTI POSSIBLE TRADE SETUPPotential Trade Setup on WTI
WTI has been on a strong 2-week rally, following the geopolitical escalation where Israel launched a preemptive attack on Iran. This event sparked a 2% surge, keeping prices hovering around $77 for the past two weeks.
Despite the bullish momentum, I am anticipating a healthy pullback before looking to engage.
My eyes are on two key zones:
- April High Region (Previous resistance turned support)
- 50% Fibonacci Retracement (Measured from recent rally low to high)
🧭 Trading Plan:
1. BUY: is currently the only play, and as I anticipate for a two-level of pullback on the 4H chart.
🟢 Risk-to-Reward:
Targeting 1:3 R/R on either entry.
Analysis of crude oil trend next week, hope it helps youNext Week's Crude Oil Trend Analysis
(1) Price Movement and Market Sentiment
The crude oil market on last Friday (June 21) resembled a roller coaster that slightly dipped at the end. WTI crude oil futures closed at $74.93 per barrel, down 0.28% from the previous day, but still up 2.67% for the entire week; Brent crude oil fell more, dropping 2.33% to close at $77.01 per barrel. This is analogous to driving uphill, slightly sliding back near the peak but still trending upward overall. Investors now have mixed feelings: while worrying that escalating Middle East tensions will push oil prices higher, they also believe the U.S. may not intervene in the conflict immediately, so oil prices may not rise temporarily. As a result, everyone is on the sidelines, hesitant to trade.
(2) Geopolitics: Where is the Switch on the Powder Keg?
The Middle East is now like a barrel filled with gunpowder, and whether the U.S. will throw a match has become crucial. Israel and Iran are still attacking each other—Israel bombed Iran's gas fields, and Iran struck Israel's refineries. More tensely, the U.S. said it would decide whether to join the conflict in the next two weeks, and five aircraft carriers have already headed to the Middle East, like placing a lighter beside the powder keg, ready to ignite the fire at any moment. However, the market thought the U.S. might not take action immediately last Friday, so oil prices fell slightly first.
There is also the critical Strait of Hormuz. Iran has been threatening to block it. If it actually does, 20% of global maritime crude oil transportation will be affected, and oil prices may soar like a rocket. Now the market is like watching a suspense movie, not knowing when Iran will press the "blockade" button or talk about a ceasefire with Europe.
Next week's crude oil market will swing between geopolitical risks and supply-demand changes. If Middle East conflicts ease, the impact of OPEC+ production increases may emerge, and oil prices may fall; if conflicts escalate, especially if Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices may rise sharply. Investors should flexibly adjust their trading strategies according to the actual market conditions and not stubbornly adhere to one view. At the same time, it is necessary to stay calm, not be affected by short-term market fluctuations, and avoid making impulsive trading decisions.
Analysis of crude oil trend next week, hope it helps you
USOIL sell@74.5~75
SL:76
TP:73.5~73
ALL EYES ON WTI Nice and simple: If this breaks up, Stocks and Crypto Dump. If this rejects, nice pump incoming...
What happens in the Strait.. will dictate all...
TP REACHED ON OUR TRADE ON OILThis morning I posted to sell on Crude Oil, and our TP got filled to close the week with 5 profitable days strike.
Follow for more!
Oil diggers?🚀💥 OIL-DIGGERS, where you at?!
WTI delivered a picture-perfect reversal off the ELFIEDT – X-REVERSION signal, printing a clean “UP” just before price launched over 300 ticks straight up!
This is what happens when you combine exhaustion, momentum shift, and smart signal logic — early entries, minimal risk, and maximum juice.
🎯 SL below the signal candle. No hesitation. Just execution.
🛢️ If you trade oil and didn’t catch this one… it’s time to add this tool to your chart.
#WTI #OilTrading #Reversion #ELFIEDT #SmartMoneyMoves #TradingViewScripts #TrendReversal #CrudeOil
WTI Oil H1 | Overlap resistance at 61.8% Fibonacci retracementWTI oil (USOIL) is rising towards an overlap resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 76.02 which is an overlap resistance that aligns closely with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss is at 78.00 which is a level that sits above a multi-swing-high resistance.
Take profit is at 71.40 which is a swing-low support that aligns closely with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Will oil prices fall after the sharp surge in crude oil?Oil prices corrected under the dual pressure of news-driven factors and inventory data. Brent crude oil futures traded in a narrow range, reaching $76.38 per barrel, while WTI July contracts edged down to $73.35 per barrel. With intensified geopolitical uncertainties, market sentiment remains dominated by wait-and-see attitudes. The unexpected increase in EIA crude oil inventories dampened market optimism. According to the latest data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), crude oil inventories in the U.S. increased by 2.6 million barrels for the week ending June 14, far exceeding the market expectation of a 1.1 million barrel decline, indicating weak demand. The rebound in inventories has exerted downward pressure on oil prices.
Oil prices have repeatedly crossed the moving average system, with the short-term objective trend showing a range-bound rhythm. In terms of momentum, the MACD indicator is intertwined near the upper side of the zero axis, reflecting weak bullish momentum. It is expected that crude oil prices will mainly maintain a consolidative pattern, with the trading range between 79.00 and 73.00.
you are currently struggling with losses，or are unsure which of the numerous trading strategies to follow,You have the option to join our VIP program. I will assist you and provide you with accurate trading signals, enabling you to navigate the financial markets with greater confidence and potentially achieve optimal trading results.
Trading Strategy:
buy@75.0-76.0
TP:78.0-79.0
oil price Rise to seeking to mitigate the $ 78.00 per barrelCrude oil extended its rally to over $76.5 per barrel, the highest in five months, as worsening geopolitical tension threatened the supply of energy from the key region. Israel and Iran continued to exchange missiles late in the week. President Trump struck a hawkish tone against Iran to maintain the possibility of US involvement, which would risk global conflict and cut off tanker activity through the Strait of Hormuz. The demand for the crude will be so high that it will drive the Barrel at around $ 78.00 per barrel,that being said i will be aiming for the following areas
Main target for the week
Buy zone @74.00
tp 1:@78.00
The wealth code of crude oil is: low and long
💡Message Strategy
According to market research, Iran's crude oil export infrastructure has not been directly hit yet, and most of the impact is still concentrated on shipping. However, analysts pointed out that once the conflict spreads to the entire region, oil prices are likely to rise further.
The Strait of Hormuz has become the market's biggest concern. It is the throat of about one-fifth of the world's crude oil supply. Although there is no sign that Iran is trying to block the channel, any escalation of the situation may pose a serious threat to the global energy supply chain.
"Trump's threat to Iran's supreme leader shows that diplomatic channels are no longer effective," said Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo Financial Markets Ltd. in Singapore. "If Iran's exports are interrupted, or even in the worst case scenario such as the Hormuz blockade, oil prices may soar rapidly."
The rise in geopolitical risks has also triggered turmoil in financial markets, with investors turning to safe-haven assets such as gold, and the volatility of the crude oil market has hit a three-year high. At the same time, crude oil producers have stepped up hedging operations, and futures and options trading volumes have surged.
The latest API crude oil inventory data showed that U.S. crude oil inventories fell sharply last week, further reinforcing market expectations of tight supply. According to data released by the American Petroleum Institute (API) in the early hours of June 18, U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 11 million barrels in the week ending June 14, far exceeding market expectations of a decline of 2.5 million barrels, marking the largest weekly drop since August last year.
📊Technical aspects
From a technical perspective, the daily chart of US crude oil (WTI) shows a clear bullish trend. After breaking through the previous high of $72, the price quickly rose and stabilized above $75, showing strong upward momentum. The current K-line has closed with long positive lines, and the red column of the MACD indicator has expanded, and the fast and slow lines have crossed, indicating that the bullish momentum continues to increase.
At the same time, the price has moved away from the 20-day and 50-day moving averages. There is a possibility of a technical correction in the short term, but the overall trend is still upward. If the geopolitical situation continues to be tense, the target may be raised to $77.5 or even the integer mark of $80, and the support will focus on the vicinity of $72.50.
💰 Strategy Package
Crude oil has reached our upward target of 74.00 yesterday and fell back. The current upward pressure on crude oil is around 75.50. If it breaks through upward, it will soon reach our second target of 77.50.
rend: Upward trend
Support: Around 72.50
Resistance: Around 75.50
Long Position:72.00-72.50，SL：71.50
The first target is around 75.00
The second target is around 77.50
USOILTrend: Bullish on Daily / 4H — making higher highs/lows.
However, price is now near a supply zone / local resistance at $75.60–$76.00.
You're executing a scalp short trade on a potential rejection at resistance before continuation.
USOIL – Short Setup in Bullish Context
Position: Sell (Short)
Entry: $75.672
Targets:
🎯 TP1: $74.600
🎯 TP2: $73.800
Stop Loss: ❌ $76.500
Trend Context: Medium-term bullish – shorting short-term resistance rejection
USOIL Bearish Reversal Setup from Rising Wedge Near Value AreaThis 1H chart of USOIL (WTI Crude Oil) shows a clear rising wedge formation approaching a strong supply zone near the $75.07 resistance level. The projection suggests a potential liquidity grab above the wedge, followed by a sharp bearish breakdown. The target for the drop is around $66.36, indicating a significant downside move after a failed breakout attempt. Price action traders should watch for bearish confirmation once the structure breaks.
Analysis of the latest crude oil market trendCrude oil prices stabilized after a sharp rise on Tuesday, with the market keeping a close eye on the potential escalation of conflicts in the Middle East. According to market surveys, Iran's crude oil export infrastructure has not been directly hit so far, and most of the impacts are still concentrated on shipping. However, analysts point out that if the conflict spreads to the entire region, oil prices are likely to rise further significantly. The current rise in crude oil prices is not only dominated by actual supply and demand but is highly influenced by geopolitics. Market sentiment is extremely vulnerable to disturbances from external events. As the global energy artery, the stability of the Strait of Hormuz provides strong support for oil prices. When the uncertainty of the geopolitical situation intensifies, attention should be paid to the release of U.S. official inventory data and the development of diplomatic processes.
Technical analysis of crude oil: The moving average system is in a bullish arrangement, and the medium-term objective trend direction is upward. The current trend is in the rhythm of the main upward trend. The fast and slow lines of the MACD indicator coincide with the bullish columns above the zero axis, indicating that the bullish momentum is currently full. It is expected that the medium-term trend is expected to usher in a rising rhythm.
you are currently struggling with losses，or are unsure which of the numerous trading strategies to follow,You have the option to join our VIP program. I will assist you and provide you with accurate trading signals, enabling you to navigate the financial markets with greater confidence and potentially achieve optimal trading results.
Trading Strategy:
buy@72.0-72.5
TP:74.0-74.5
WTI drops as Trump keeps markets guessing Despite a huge draw in US crude inventories - not that this was going to move the market given the focus being firmly fixated on the Middle East situation - oil prices fell as Trump kept markets guessing about US military involvement in Iran. The US president said: "I may do it. I may not do it. Nobody knows what I’m going to do." The US president also revealed that he told Israel PM Netanyahu to keep going, but has not given an indication that the US will provide more help. Meanwhile, Iran has issued an evacuation warning for residents of Haifa, Israel. This suggests that the conflict is far from over. But for now at least, the US is not getting involved, if one can believe Trump.
Anyway, WTI is now back at short-term support here, around the $72 handle. If it goes back above $73.00 again then we may see momentum build up again to the upside, especially if the war between Iran and Israel escalates.
By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
Oil Traders Brace for Impact: US War or Pullback?WTI Crude Oil – Intraday Update: Tension Builds Inside Rising Channel
1H Technical Outlook — June 18, 2025
🧭 Current Market Structure:
WTI is currently trading at $72.54, holding above key support but struggling to break through a strong intraday supply zone around $73.80–74.00. Price has formed a rising channel, gradually climbing with higher highs and higher lows—often a pre-breakout structure.
Momentum on the Stochastic oscillator is turning, suggesting the market is preparing for a strong directional move.
📊 Key Technical Levels:
Resistance Zones:
$74.00 – intraday supply
$76.00 – swing high zone
$78.00+ – war-driven extension target
Support Zones:
$70.00 – mid-channel & psychological level
$68.00 – previous breakout zone
$66.00 – bearish continuation target if war is ruled out
🔺 Scenario 1: US-Iran War Escalates (Bullish Breakout)
If the U.S. launches airstrikes or there is confirmed military escalation:
Expect immediate breakout above $74.00.
Price likely to test $76.00, followed by an impulsive move toward $78.00+.
Intraday traders should watch for breakout retest setups on lower timeframes (M15/M5).
🛢️ Market could price in a $5–$10 geopolitical premium per barrel within hours if conflict begins.
🔻 Scenario 2: No War / De-escalation (Bearish Breakdown)
If headlines signal de-escalation or diplomacy:
Rising channel may break to the downside.
WTI could fall back to test $70.00, and if broken, flush toward $68.00–66.00 support.
Watch for bearish engulfing candles, divergence, or momentum fading.
📉 Oil often unwinds risk premium quickly when fear fades — beware sharp selloffs.
🔁 Neutral Intraday Note:
Price currently consolidating between $72.00–74.00 inside an ascending channel.
Break above or below this range will dictate momentum.
Wait for confirmation candle close before entering breakout trades.
🛡️ Risk Management:
Avoid large overnight positions — news headlines can cause gaps or whipsaws.
Use tight stops if trading breakout/down; volatility is news-driven.
Consider options strategies for limited risk exposure (calls above $74 / puts below $70).
📢 If you found this analysis valuable, kindly consider boosting and following for more updates.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This content is intended for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
WTI Crude Oil bullish on geopolitical riskWTI Price: Trading around $74.60, extending gains in European trading hours.
Key Drivers Today:
Geopolitical Risk:
Tensions between Israel and Iran are rising.
Trump called for Iran’s “unconditional surrender,” increasing fears of US involvement.
Iran may shut the Strait of Hormuz — a key oil shipping route — which could disrupt supply and push prices higher.
Bullish API Inventory Data:
US crude stockpiles dropped by 10.1 million barrels last week (vs. -0.6M expected).
Signals strong demand or tighter supply, adding bullish pressure to WTI.
Trading Implication:
Geopolitical risk + surprise inventory draw = bullish bias for WTI.
Watch for momentum toward $77.20 resistance, with support near $71.80.
Eyes now on EIA data for confirmation and any new Middle East headlines for further upside.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 77.20
Resistance Level 2: 7940
Resistance Level 3: 82.00
Support Level 1: 71.80
Support Level 2: 70.00
Support Level 3: 69.00
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
usoil usoil is also in range for long we have to wait for 5 min candle should give closing above 73 so long trade we be active and for short if 5 min candle is giving closing below 72.500 the short trade will active
