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USSP500CFD trade ideas

S&P 500 (SPX500USD) – Liquidity Sweep or Continuation? | Probabi🕒 1H Chart | Smart Money Concepts | Volume | ORB Framework We are currently trading around 5,888, after a recovery from the equilibrium zone near 5,760–5,770, which served as a strong reaction point. Here's how we at WaverVanir International LLC are assessing probability-based outcomes using our DSS and institutional concepts: 🔍 Key Levels & Observations: 🟥 Premium Supply Zone: 5,925–5,945 shows signs of multiple CHoCHs (Change of Character), BOS (Break of Structure), and prior liquidity grabs. This zone is now a potential trap for late buyers. Prob. of rejection: ~70% based on historical confluence. 🟦 Discount Demand Zone: 5,742–5,770 is our equilibrium/discount reaccumulation zone with a high-probability reaction area. Swept liquidity clean on May 24–27 with volume spike confirmation. Prob. of support: ~75% short-term if price retraces with exhaustion. 📈 Trade Ideas (Probability-Weighted): Short Setup (Reactive) Entry: 5,928–5,940 (inside premium) Stop Loss: Above 5,950 (above weak high) Target 1: 5,860 Target 2: 5,785–5,765 (equilibrium zone) Confidence: 65–70% Long Setup (Reversion Play) Entry: 5,765–5,745 (bottom of imbalance) Stop Loss: Below 5,729 Target 1: 5,859 Target 2: 5,910–5,920 Confidence: 70% if sweep occurs with declining vol. 🔄 ORB Confluence: Opening Range Breakout (0930–0945) shows recent buy-side aggression, but this move is suspect unless volume continues climbing. A fade below 5,859 without impulsive volume confirms seller re-entry.
FX:SPX500Long
by Wavervanir_International_LLC
SPX500USD - Key Levels to Watch Ahead of Major US Data!The S&P 500 Index (SPX500USD) is currently trading near a significant supply zone around 5885–5925. Price has shown clear rejection here multiple times, indicating strong selling pressure from institutional players. Key Levels: Resistance Zone: 5885–5925 (Supply Zone) First Support: 5659.1 – former resistance, now turned key support Major Demand Zone: 5355.3 – 5400, marked by high-volume accumulation (Visible Range POC) Bearish Scenario: If price fails to break above the 5925 resistance, we may see a potential sell-off toward 5659 first, and possibly down to the 5355 demand zone, especially with upcoming US economic data later this week (as marked by the calendar icons). Watch For: Rejection candles or bearish engulfing around 5885–5925 Break and close below 5659 for further downside confirmation Strong bullish momentum only above 5930 to invalidate bearish bias Bias: Bearish unless 5930 is broken convincingly. Technical Tools Used: Supply & Demand Visible Range (LuxAlgo) Volume Profile Support Zones Price Action Structure (1H) What do you think? Will SPX500 hold the resistance or break to new highs? Let’s discuss! #SPX500 #SP500 #TradingView #Forex #Indices #TechnicalAnalysis #SupplyAndDemand #PriceAction #SwingTrading
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by FrankFx14
S&P 500 and the 200-Day Moving Average – A Simple Trend SignalLooking at the daily chart of the S&P 500 with the 200-day moving average (turquoise line), you could build a very basic—but often effective—trend-following system: ✅ Price above the 200-day MA = Bull trend ❌ Price below the 200-day MA = Bear trend 🔄 Price oscillating around it = Possible trend change ________________________________________ 📊 Current Setup: We’ve broken sharply below the 200-day MA and have seen only a minor bounce back above it—with little follow-through. This kind of price action typically suggests a weakening bull trend. ⚠️ If we break below the 200-day MA again (currently around 5773), I’d start viewing that as a bearish signal. Right now, I’m watching this level very closely, as the next move could offer a strong clue about the market’s direction. Disclaimer: The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
SP:SPX
by The_STA
S&P 500 at Key Inflection Zone: Golden Pocket vs. Breakdown RiskPrice is hovering around the 0.618 Fib retracement and the 200-day MA — Bulls' eye 6.5% to ATH, Bears target a -16% drop. Critical decision point ahead. If reclaimed, a breakout above 6,151.74 would initiate a new bullish leg. S&P 500 (SPX) multi-decade chart (2-week time frame), the chart overlays key historical highs, major corrections, and media sentiment headlines—all critical for a macro-technical assessment. Below is an expert-level breakdown integrating price action, moving averages, sentiment analysis, and cyclical behavior. 📊 Macro Technical Assessment of the S&P 500 (SPX) 🟢 Trend Analysis (1973–2025) The chart illustrates a long-term secular uptrend, anchored by consistent support above the 200-period moving average (blue line) and a decades-long upward-sloping trendline (green). Despite several deep corrections (marked in red boxes), the trend has always reverted to and eventually bounced above the 200 MA—a key signal of structural strength. The current price is well above the MA200 but appears extended, similar to other historical peaks (e.g., 2000, 2007, and 2021–2022). 🔻 Historical Bear Market Corrections (Measured from Highs): Year Peak-to-Trough Decline Event 1973–74 -51.9% Oil embargo, stagflation 1987 -37% Black Monday 2000–2002 -49% Dot-com bubble burst 2007–2009 -57% Global Financial Crisis 2020 -35% COVID crash 2022 -27% Fed tightening, inflation spike 2025 (so far) -21% Ongoing correction from all-time high Each correction marked a reversion to or below the MA200, before initiating a fresh long-term leg up. 🧠 Psychological Sentiment Integration (Text Boxes & Headlines) 📰 Headlines & Crowd Sentiment Patterns 2000-2002: Dot-com euphoria followed by collapse—media and public overconfidence. 2007–2008: Financial crisis—major media disbelief in downside risk until it materialized. 2020–2022: Post-COVID rally labeled as “most hated in history” – a contrarian bullish signal. 2025: Present headlines again show skepticism despite all-time highs – echoing 2020 sentiment. 📌 Insight: The presence of bearish headlines at highs often indicates a disbelief rally, which historically results in short-term corrections but long-term gains if fundamentals catch up. 🔄 Current Price Context (2025) Current Pullback: -21% from the recent ATH. Support levels to watch: MA200 (approx. 4,100–4,300 zone) – historically strong buy zone. Trendline support dating back to the 1980s (~4,600). The market is mid-correction, with a structure resembling 2000 or 2022, but not yet as deep. 📉 Bear Market Probability in 2025? The current pullback is less severe than historical bear markets. The media pessimism and overextension from MA200 could still trigger deeper corrections. However, until the trendline and MA200 are broken decisively, this remains a correction in a bull market. 🔎 Key Takeaways ✅ Bullish Long-Term Signals: Decades of higher highs/lows. Strong respect for MA200 as dynamic support. Recurring recoveries after panic-driven declines. ⚠️ Bearish Short-to-Mid-Term Risks: Extended rally with rising skepticism (echoes of 2000/2007). 21% pullback already in place, which could deepen. Failure to hold 4,600–4,300 range may open the door to full bear market correction (30–40%). 🧭 Strategic Outlook Timeframe Bias Reason Short-term (1–3 months) ⚠️ Neutral-to-bearish Ongoing correction phase, sentiment bearish, overextension unwinding Mid-term (6–12 months) 🟡 Cautiously bullish If trendline + MA200 hold, dip-buying opportunity like 2011, 2020 Long-term (1–3 years) ✅ Bullish Structural uptrend intact, secular bull likely to resume here's a technical assessment of the S&P 500 (SPX) Daily Chart based solely on the image and technical levels shown: 🎯 Chart Summary: Instrument: S&P 500 Index (SPX) Timeframe: Daily (1D) Key Levels: Fibonacci retracements, 200-day MA, support/resistance zones Price Context: Currently in a pullback phase after attempting to reclaim the 2025 high (~6,151.74) 🔍 Technical Analysis Breakdown 📏 Fibonacci Retracement Zones: The Fibonacci retracement is drawn from the recent swing low (~4,837.88) to the 2025 high (~6,151.74), measuring the key pullback levels. Level Price Interpretation 0.236 ~5,120.12 Minor retracement – early warning 0.382 ~5,302.91 Medium support; possible bounce zone 0.5 ~5,455.40 Key support – equilibrium zone 0.618 ~5,612.28 Golden pocket – strong institutional interest 1.0 ~6,151.74 All-Time High (ATH) resistance The price recently hit resistance near ATH and is pulling back toward the 50%-61.8% retracement zone, which is technically the "golden zone" for potential bullish reversal. 📉 Moving Average – 200-Day MA: The blue line on the chart indicates the 200-day moving average (~5,612). Price is sitting right on this MA, and this is crucial. The 200MA is one of the most respected institutional indicators—a breakdown below it could accelerate selling. If price holds above this level, we may see renewed bullish momentum. ⚖️ Risk/Reward Profile Upside potential: +6.5% toward ATH (~6,151) Downside risk: -16% toward retracement lows (~5,120 and lower) This sets up a skewed risk profile: unless strong buying steps in soon, the downside is significantly larger than the remaining upside. 🧭 Market Sentiment and Probability Scenarios ✅ Bullish Scenario (6.5% Upside): Holding the 200MA + 0.618 Fib (~5,612) confirms this level as dynamic support. This could attract dip buyers and institutional re-entry, pushing toward the ATH. If reclaimed, a breakout above 6,151.74 would initiate a new bullish leg. 🚨 Bearish Scenario (-16% Downside): If price loses the 200MA and falls through Fib 0.5 and 0.382, then a move toward 5,120 or even sub-5,000 becomes likely. Break of structure = short-term trend change. A bearish engulfing candle or momentum rejection will confirm this shift. 🧠 Expert Insight: This setup represents a technical inflection point. The confluence of: Fibonacci golden zone (0.5–0.618), 200-day MA support, and recent ATH rejection ...makes this a critical decision zone for the S&P 500. Traders should watch volume, macro catalysts, and market breadth indicators closely over the next few sessions. If buyers step in here with conviction, a short-term rally is plausible. However, a clean break below these technical levels could open the door for a multi-week correction.
SP:SPXLong
by InsightMarket
2
S&P 500 Wave Analysis – 26 May 2025 - S&P 500 reversed from support level 5775,00 - Likely to rise to resistance level 5970,00 S&P 500 index recently reversed up from the pivotal support level 5775,00 (former resistance from March, which formed the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Evening Star). The support level 5775,00 was strengthened 20-day moving average and by the 38.21% Fibonacci correction of the previous upward impulse from April. S&P 500 index can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 5970,00, top of the previous minor impulse wave 1 from the middle of May.
CBOE:SPXLong
by FxProGlobal
SPX AND WHAT WE STAND TO GAIN OR LOSE!⚡ Hey hey, hope all is well. Don't have too much time right now so just want to get a quick idea out, we'll keep this short and concise, thank you. ⚡ First thing's first, we're gonna take a quick Big picture look at our SP:SPX chart for today and we can take a look back on our ascending channel which helped propel us for most of 2024 into 2025 before we finally exited that channel in February and lost our 200 EMA. ⚡ The 200 EMA was our main tool for the last year or so, keeping above that gave traders and investors the confidence to keep things pushing and essentially kept the market on this wave which is simply rode up, everyone was making money and that money was going back into more investments further propelling things before we saw our SP:SPX hit an all time high in February at $6,200. ⚡ So we had the 200 EMA below us, we had much of the market making money, and with trump entering office, much of the market was understandably optimistic and things we're continuing pretty strong January through into February. We then had trump make his remarks on a possible recession and we started getting talks on tariffs which understandably prompted much of the market and market makers to take profits and we sort of got this reversal which I spoke more on in a previous idea which I'll link below for reference: ⚡ Before I continue and as a disclosure, none of this is meant to be taken in a political stance or with any bias, like I said, we're simply looking at the facts and the technical, that's all that matters. ⚡ To continue on, as the referenced idea represents, once that news hit the market sentiment shifted and we can see the descending channel that ensued with that which also prompted us to lose our 200 EMA, something we haven't seen happen since 2023 on the daily chart which puts us in a precarious position. ⚡ The market's basically lost two advantages. The last year or so that 200 EMA kept below the chart never converging which helped bulls alongside our ascending channel which was a significant component in this push for the all-time-high (ATH). So we 've basically lost both of those advantages which is what helped bulls climb so much ground the last year or so. ⚡ We already know the 200 EMA crossover is important but now it'll likely create a broader impact now that we have no channel to look. Instead, we'll likely see a number of traders more than likely looking out for those Bullish and Bearish crossover's for making plays which is already happening. ⚡ If we look at the beginning of April for example where we had that first 200 EMA crossover we can see just how dramatic the sell-off was, investors just weren't sure how far things we're going to go and once we got another crossover and regained that 200 EMA the buy-in action, volume was also dramatic signifying a market that's being led by sentiment rather than technical which again was the main driver for us the last year or so. ⚡ That being said technical of course is still playing a role, but we're seeing sentiment drive price action and being taken into account a lot more the last few weeks, especially with everything going on with Trump and the tariff war we had which put much of the market and investors on edge trying to figure out whether or not things we're looking optimistic or not for the market before China and the US we're able to ultimately come to an agreement helping put many minds at ease. ⚡ Next few weeks I'll be watching that 200 EMA to see if we get a bearish crossover or if we can avoid that and regain ground to which I'll be looking to my Fib. chart for as referenced below: ⚡ Next is a descending channel I've added to the daily chart which hopefully doesn't come into play again. ⚡ Can already see how that descending channel impacted us the second tiem around in April so main thing is that we avoid losing that 200 EMA again, and we keep away from that descending channel else we'll more than likely get dragged down further if we we're to reenter that channel much like we saw happen with the sell-off in April. ⚡ Have to run but just wanted to give quick technical look at our big picture idea here for the $SP:SPX. Current goal is to see a retest of $5,900 and avoid another convergence with that 200 EMA on the daily else we risk losing our footing and reversing. ⚡ As always, thanks so much for all the support, appreciate you all and wishing all the best till next. Don't just make it a good day, make it a great one. Best regards, ~ Rock'
SP:SPX
by Rocksorgate
1
Bullish continuation?S&P500 has bounced off the support level which is a pullback support that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and could potentially rise from this level to our take profit. Entry: 5,784.04 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level that lines up with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss: 5,689.40 Why we lik eit: There is a pullback support level that is slightly above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Take profit: 6,003.35 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
VANTAGE:SP500Long
by VantageMarkets
Hellena | SPX500 (4H): SHORT to 38.2% - 50% Fibo lvl 5489.Colleagues, I have reviewed the waves a bit and I believe that when the strong psychological level of 6000 is reached, a reaction and correction in wave “2” is possible. I propose to consider this movement as a strong five-wave movement. Wave “1” will be over soon. I consider the 38.2% - 50% Fibonacci levels of 5489 to be the main target of the correction. Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by Hellena_Trade
5
SPX: tariffs, againPrevious week was relatively calm when macro data were in question, however, the peace was interrupted with a new narrative regarding trade tariffs. The US Administration plans to set trade tariffs with the European Union at 50%. The US President recently noted that these tariffs are currently not negotiable. Such a narrative imposed a drop in the value of the US equity markets. The S&P 500 was traded with a negative sentiment during the week, dropping from 5.962 down to 5.802 at Friday's trading session. Another news hit Apple shares, when the US President commented that this company has to pay 25% on all IPhones which are not produced in the US. After this post, shares of Apple dropped by 3% on Friday. Analysts involved in a matter are commenting that the transfer of IPhones production from China to the US would increase the price of IPhones by 25%. On the other hand, the company United States Steel surged by 21% after the US President's announcement of a deal and “partnership” with Japanese Nippon Steel. At this moment analysts are in agreement that the market is set for a sell-off in case of any news related to trade tariffs. The positive sentiment is extremely fragile and this might continue for some time in the future.
SP:SPX
by XBTFX
Monday Bounce from 4H Demand ZoneAfter taking a controlled loss on Friday, I came into Monday focused and clear-minded. Price tapped into a clean 4H demand zone and printed a strong bullish engulfing candle — a textbook rejection from imbalance. I waited for the 4H candle close before entering long. Risk was tight below the demand zone, with a clear target above — offering a high RR setup. This trade wasn’t about the day of the week; it was about respecting structure, imbalance, and confirmation. Pair: US500 Timeframe: 4H Setup: Bullish engulfing off 4H demand zone + imbalance fill Entry: After 4H candle close Stop Loss: Below demand wick Take Profit: Major clean high above imbalance Risk-to-Reward: Over 3R This is why I trade the 4H. One clean move. No stress. No noise. Just structure + patience. – THE 4H TRADER
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by Austin-August
SPX500 H1 | Overlap resistance at 61.8% Fibonacci retracementSPX500 is rising towards an overlap resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower. Sell entry is at 5,881.33 which is an overlap resistance that aligns close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss is at 5,945.00 which is a level that sits above the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and a swing-high resistance. Take profit is at 5,823.81 which is an overlap support. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
TRADU:SPX500Short
by Tradu
Looking at Examples of 4.23 Breaks If markets continue to make shallow dips and rally higher, or even if there's a big sell off and false break of the lows that makes a V recovery then we're seeing a whole lot of things up-trending above massive inflection points. In this post I want to show you some different examples of what has happened on 4.23 breaks. The 4.23 level is a very high probability level to trade off. Even on an intra day basis this will most often have at least reactions and can have full reversals off it. You can see in the SPX chart that the 2022 top came off the 4.23. When a 4.23 is going to be a reversal level it will often react to the 4.23 spike it out. Come back under and hold a retest. Forming a head and shoulders pattern with 4.23 as the shoulders. That setup when successful is a fatal setup for the trend. When inside the 4.23 head fake you're inside the end of the trend. Interestingly, not only is SPX at this 4.23 level but so are lots of other things. Bitcoin is, for example. BTC is often a good proxy for risk on/off so it's interesting this is at this big decision level along with SPX is interesting. In the 4.23 reversal the rejection of rallies can be so strong and abrupt there's not a chance to do anything during it. You really have to think about it in advance. But if the 4.23 break it's extremely easy to the upside for the foreseeable future. Let's start with looking at the different 4.23 decisions in AAPL over the years. This first one shows how the head fakes can be the end of rallies. This correcting relatively shallow compared to the full risk. Holding the 2.61. From this pullback and 4.23 break AAPL went up 200% without any sizable pullbacks. Advancing to the further swing. In this one AAPL began to go parabolic in the run to the 4.23. Got a bit above it. Crashed back to it. Held retests and then went into a big boom move. Almost every week closed higher in this period which continued until over 100% above the 4.23. We advance the swing again and ... what's the chances? AAPL last top is 4.23 and now we're retesting the 4.23. Now ... there are different things that can happen. But if you were to assume the 4.23 pattern in AAPL continues it'd have to do this. And if you believe that is possible (and it's possible) then the SPX chart in the OP makes a lot of sense, right? Expecting BTC would do this would be obvious if indices made that move. Look at NVDA. To overlook the risks of rejection would be fatal if wrong (this could be a simple head and shoulders like pattern) but viewed through the lens of a 4.23 pullback this would have a hyper bullish forecast to it. Over and over again you can make this case for things doubling without any major pullbacks. Candle after candle up-trends. It would not be a time to be a bear! Here's a look left on NVDA. If you had fibs from the crash range here was the 4.23 decision. We could be somewhere like here in NVDA. These are things you certainly have to respect the risk of as an active shorter of things. It'd not be good. And they're such massive outsized opportunities if they form like this that it'd be insane to not prep for what to do in this. If week after week after week is closing green and we never trade under the last week - a smart trader can build a massive position in that. Think about the positions you could build in these periods where the market never crosses your entry again. And then wait and start to trail stops when it goes parabolic. During this period there will be 10% jumps up and the trend of shallow pullbacks will continue. Carrying a bear bias into this would be bad because although the trend never breaks there a enough pullbacks to mean you can easily end up bearish in the worst rally zones. If betting on things like bull traps/spike outs. These moves above the 4.23 are very common. A sharp doubling of the trend happens above the 4.23 a lot! If SPX is going to break it and have the common reaction - everything is going vertical. There are lots of things that are at the 4.23 zones now and you can add 100% onto the 4.23 and think it's probable it will get to there and head fake over it a bit. 100% should be a fairly "Safe" target for the 4.23 break. More speculative ideas would be to look for things that are currently down a lot and draw a fib from the high to the low of those. If we enter into a mania condition where indices are up every week then we might see mania in the hyper speculative things that were in favour previously. Example; Not think this sort of thing works on doge? We have a current 4.23 top and a drop to the 1.27. That's the full predicted correction off a 4.23. It's not always the bottom - but this is the target for a 4.23 drop. Doge may have completed a full 4.23 cycle and be heading into the next. Absolutely possible. If that were true, this would be set to begin to trend very hard. The consideration has to be what if SPX is here. It'd be fair to say the odds of this are low but how high would they have to be to make it worth considering? People act as if the idea of considering massive downside risk means you're scared to take upside risk. Which isn't the case. If anything, I am advocating for more aggressive upside risk betting on the solid trend continuation with tight trailing stops if the breakout is made. Inside the area where we have most chance of a pullback in an uptrend and a wipe out top in a reversal I'm extremely aware of what those risks might look like, but I won't be "Side lined" in a breakout. It means I don't want to broke if the extreme risk thing happens. Indices could more than double or more than half off the 4.23 decision. We're in a really interesting time. If we break I plan to trade as if we're going to be up and up every week. Only take long setups. Maybe have a few macro short levels along the way but be mainly a perma bull. If we get the consistent buying weeks I'll expect all dips will be bought and the uptrend will turn into a parabolic run, I'll act accordingly. And if we start to get massive 10 - 20% weekly candles somewhere over 10,000, I'll suspect that may be blow off action and start to think about fading. By this time we'll be at the next set of important fib levels and I'll use a very similar form of analysis. If you use any half decent trend strategy with a stop loss you really can't lose money in a typical 4.23 breakout. Even those mindlessly buying with no downside control can run up a lot (although it's questionable if they get to keep it or not). The fact this is a possible outcome for bears if the resistances fail at this level is something I think macro bears should consider, deeply. Because you don't have to "Be wrong" for this to happen. If your thesis this is all a big stinking bubble - your biggest risk isn't you're wrong, it's you're right! And we're inside the bubble. Not at the end of it. Bubbles FREQUENTLY double into their end points. This would be a major opportunity for any who embraced it. I do think seeing this happen would be warning things were going to get ugly later but the money to be made in the 5000 - 10,000 run would be exceptional. Accumulating intra day/week with trailing stops would probably see you hit trailing stops about three times most of them you getting in lower and you could end up making 1.000% for the 100% the market went up - and do this while keeping risk capped low since you're always trailing stops to lock in profit. The opportunity isn't in the price forecast/% as such. It's more in the fact that if it is right it should be evidenced by those periods of extremely consistent trend. These will go on for a long time. Be interrupted. Chop / drop and then resume. The amount you can make in those types of trends if you expect them is off the page. And it'd be easy. There's a few times it'd be tricky and these can be deal with by simply waiting - because later it will be easy. What makes this all the more important to consider for bears I think is the fact that we could say the highest probability way that SPX makes this move is by dumping under the last low to retest the 4.23 first. Which would feel very bearish. Very "I should sell the rip" ish. The move that this would make is one I already have marked in as a warning that we could end up going significantly lower. I have to understand all those conditions could fill and even although it all looks exactly like a bear setup, it's actually a 4.23 retest. Very different things for the next swing. Every major high and low in SPX during the last decade has interacted with the fibs from the 2008 low. They've marked out the highs/lows better than anything else. We're now at the most important one of those. It hit in 2022 and since then we've been inside the suspense period of it. The 4.23 reaction didn't tell us all that much. A 4.23 spike out doesn't tell us all that much. Both of these things happen in the bull and bear moves. But the actual decision after the attempt to break 4.23 matters a lot. Whatever happens here is likely to be the most pivotal decision point so far.
SP:SPXLong
by holeyprofit
1
S&P 500 Weekly PotentialVolatility, expressed through standard deviation, quantifies market elasticity and presents a level of probability and precision that humbles us all. This week with SP:SPX bi-weekly trends have risen to just below our monthly values and are currently expansive over the markets IV prediction. Right now as I see it, HV10 is going resonate alongside our monthly values showing continued strength over IV. We could full regression to quarterly means as we move our of corrective territory then see consolidation to cool the markets down. BOOST the post, drop a follow and comment, BUT don't circle back at the end of the week to revisit and observe how our trending markets preformed!
SP:SPX
by splitmyIVandmelt
Up again for SPX500USDHi traders, Last week SPX500USD retested the 4H FVG once more and made a (corrective) move down into the Daily BPR. This was exactly the move I've predicted and I hope you took some value from it. Now price rejected from the Daily BPR so next week we could see this pair go up again to the higher Daily FVG. Let's see what the market does and react. Trade idea: Wait for a bullish change in orderflow and a small correction down on a lower timeframe to trade longs. If you want to learn more about trading FVG's & liquidity sweeps with Wave analysis, then please make sure to follow me. This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my technical analysis. Don't be emotional, just trade your plan! Eduwave
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by EduwaveTrading
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of May 23, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook: The S&P 500 Index demonstrated a consistent downward trend during this week's trading session, reaching a significant target at the Mean Support level 5828. The index is currently trending lower, targeting the Inner Index Dip at 5730, with additional marks identified at the Mean Support levels of 5660 and 5600. Conversely, the index has the potential to rebound from its present position, advancing toward the Mean Resistance level of 5860 and retesting the previously completed Outer Index Rally at 5955.
SP:SPX
by TradeSelecter
Is Trump Triggering a Mini Market Crack to Drive Capital into Tr📉 Is Trump Triggering a Mini Market Crack to Drive Capital into Treasuries? Recent remarks by former President Donald Trump — including threats of 50% tariffs on EU goods and pressure on Apple to manufacture domestically — have sparked sharp red moves across the U.S. markets. Which leads to a serious question: 👉 Could this be a deliberate strategy to induce fear in the stock market and push both institutional and retail money toward U.S. Treasury bonds? In a context where the U.S. government needs to issue and absorb massive debt, and where yields are rising to attract buyers, a sell-off in equities might: 💰 Boost demand for Treasuries 🔥 Justify aggressive fiscal or monetary actions 🎯 Reposition political actors as “economic saviors” I’m not making claims — just thinking out loud... Are we witnessing a calculated move to reroute capital from equities into U.S. debt, using fear as the vehicle? What do you think — coincidence… or strategy?
VANTAGE:SP500
by perezliz37