To the Mooooooon! I think we just bottomed and we'll now see a retest of the highs.
I'm still net super bearish but I think a trap is possible.
I've taken profit and bought under 5200.
USSP500CFD trade ideas
The S&P 500 Has Officially Entered a Bear MarketThe technical definition is simple:
✅ A decline of 20% or more from recent all-time highs.
That’s exactly where we are.
🔻 The S&P 500 has been free-falling and just hit that 20% mark.
🔴 The index is on pace to close the day deep in red — confirming what many feared:
We are in a bear market.
👀 What does this mean?
Expect continued volatility, emotional markets, and high sensitivity to macroeconomic news.
Historically, bear markets can last from a few months to over a year, depending on policy response and investor sentiment.
While painful, bear markets often plant the seeds of the next bull run 🌱 — but that doesn’t mean we’re there yet.
🧠 Time to zoom out, stay informed, and trade with caution. Capital preservation becomes just as important as returns.
What’s your strategy during bear markets? Averaging down? Hedging? Sitting in cash?
#SP500 #BearMarket #StockMarketCrash #TradingStrategy #MarketUpdate #InvestSmart
Tweet and idea (you can use it for prediction)Tweet and idea (you can use it for prediction)
💡 This trading idea is based on analyzing market reactions to news and tweets from influential figures — especially in the context of cryptocurrencies and stocks prone to speculative spikes.
📊 Core Strategy:
The model tracks sudden price movements triggered by public statements (e.g., tweets from Elon Musk, breaking news, etc.). After the initial reaction, a retracement or continuation pattern often forms, which can be used to enter a trade.
🧠 How to use it:
1. Monitor the news flow or social media activity related to the asset.
2. Identify the initial impulse on the chart (high volume, sharp movement).
3. Wait for consolidation or a minor pullback.
4. Enter on breakout or bounce, using a tight stop-loss.
📌 Best suited for high-volatility assets with frequent hype triggers (e.g., DOGE, TSLA, BTC).
S&P - WEEKLY SUMMARY 31.3–4.4 / FORECAST📉 S&P500 – 12th week of the base cycle (average 20 weeks), which started on the pivot forecast of January 13, currently in the 2nd phase. This bear is completing the prolonged 50-week cycle and the 4-year cycle. The delay in the cycles wasn’t an exception, as the maximum durations remained within statistical norms. Target levels are given in the post “Bear 2025 in Numbers”. Preliminary timing forecasts for the end of this base cycle were shared in the post from March 23.
☝️ I believe the presidential cycle played a role in the delay of the 4-year cycle, which was supposed to bottom in October 2024 or January 2025 based on timing. Markets simply weren’t ready to fall under a Democratic president.
⚠️ Keep in mind that the end of the current base cycle will mark the beginning of a new 4-year cycle. The start of any cycle, even a bearish one, is always bullish, and the start of a new 4-year cycle could be very energetic. But for how long? Interesting developments are likely in spring 2026 during the final stage of the 7-year crisis cycle.
⚠️ We are holding the short position opened on the extreme forecast of March 24 — the midpoint of Mercury retrograde. The next extreme forecast is on April 7. The next pivot forecast is on April 14 — the end of the Venus retrograde period, which has been very active this year.
Market Structure is broken - Another - 0 DTE Call Spread on SPXThis may be my last super aggressive Call Spread on SPX, then will watch how the market plays out rest of this week.
-5000 +5005 expires today, 18%
Everything is off atm.
Only options play this week, otherwise I'm a huge buyer of Crypto.
US500 Panic sell, Major support, psychological level LONG Hello fellow traders,
Yesterday was one of the darkest days for some of you who invested in market and had high hopes and once the price gone over certain levels the machines started selling selling selling and who knows what Monday will bring? Maybe on Sunday some salvation will come from USA! hahaha! Anyway, trading and chart wise- this is a major support zone for sp500 5000!! and look how the price has hit the trend line and look how the RSI is oversold and look...this is a Daily chart! I like going from daily to 4h and 1h intervals, Daily oversold is a good signal for a reversal at least for NOW, correction faze to 5400 perhaps and will see, for now my bet is on the Long position with the target 5,400
This is not a trading advise, just an idea and wait!- s/l advisable here I would say below 4650 being win to loss ratio slightly above 1:1
SPX In Free Fall. How Much More Pain Do We Have Coming?Hey my fellow traders and followers, hope all is well with you and your trading?
Let me shed some light on the dark times ahead.
I know some of you are asking ; How much more pain do we have to endure? Well, I'm here to give my opinion on what I see in the daily SPX/USD chart.
Like it or not we have another leg down to go. Sorry. We have on the chart a Head & Shoulder, or Inverted V pattern, Bearflag pattern after the first round of distribution. Second distribution will show in another leg down to 5343.4 area which will be our TP-1. TP-2 is ready for it?------
4981 area. Long ways to go yet. I see this playing out until anywhere from April 23 to April 30th.
Whether you want to believe this possibility or not, please be careful with your bias. Remember the Daily and Weekly are still bearish so understand the depth we can fall. My job is to tip you off on what is possible. Until next time please trade carefully if you choose as the market is in wide wide price swings that keep hitting retail trader's stops in both directions. If you are going to trade, trade the smaller TF's to avoid blowing up your account.
Best of luck in all your trades.
Cheers!
Wall Street's Difficulties: How It Impacts the Forex Market
Hello, I am Andrea Russo, Forex Trader, and today I want to discuss how the recent difficulties on Wall Street are influencing the global forex market.
The Storm on Wall Street
In recent days, Wall Street has experienced significant turbulence, with major indices sharply declining. This scenario has been driven by several factors, including:
Rising Interest Rates in the U.S.: The Federal Reserve, concerned about persistent inflation, has hinted at potential monetary tightening.
Geopolitical Tensions: Global uncertainties are unsettling investors and reducing risk appetite.
Signs of Economic Slowdown: Recent macroeconomic data have fueled fears of an imminent recession.
These elements have resulted in a decline in investor confidence, leading to heavy sell-offs in equity markets.
Effects on the Forex Market
The repercussions of this turbulence are already manifesting in the forex market. Here are the key implications:
Strengthening of the U.S. Dollar: The dollar has gained momentum as a safe-haven currency, particularly against emerging market currencies like the Brazilian real and Turkish lira.
Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc Rising: These haven currencies have seen increased demand, drawing monetary flows.
Pressure on Emerging Market Currencies: Reduced risk appetite has triggered sell-offs in the major currencies of emerging markets.
What Should Forex Traders Do Now?
In such a volatile environment, it's crucial for traders to:
Analyze the Data: Keep a close watch on U.S. economic indicators and Federal Reserve announcements.
Diversify Risk: Consider hedging strategies to reduce exposure to volatility.
Observe Safe Havens: Explore trading opportunities involving the yen and Swiss franc, which remain stable during uncertainty.
Reversal timeAs mentioned in my post earlier, we have seen the market pullback "https://www.tradingview.com/chart/SPX/EbczOtHO-Major-pullback-from-April/"
I now expect the buyers to start coming in and we will start to see a reversal of the overall market soon, probably even April itself. But this is when you start buying stocks and indices rather than wait for exact bottom.
Is the U.S. Stock Market Forming a Bottom? (April 7th 2025, YES)Is the U.S. Stock Market Forming a Bottom? (April 7th 2025 Analysis) - by Yuri Duursma
Market Overview: Indices in Bear Market Territory
After a strong start to the year, U.S. equities have stumbled extremely badly in recent weeks. The S&P 500 is currently down about 22% below its February 2025 all-time high (as the time of writing this, Monday 7 april 3AM EST time), the index is trading slightly above $4,800) , while the Nasdaq Composite has fallen roughly 26.5% from its peak – putting it deep into a bear market at $16,325 points. Even the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average is in a correction, having slid around 19%+ from its ATH. This broad decline has been accelerated by escalating trade tensions – notably sweeping tariffs announced in early April – which sparked a vicious selloff and the worst week for stocks since 2020 In just the two days following the tariff news, the S&P 500 plunged over 10%, wiping out trillions in market value (Hedge funds capitulate, investors brace for margin calls in market rout | Reuters). Such rapid, across-the-board declines have investors asking: Is the market finally near a bottom, or is there further pain ahead? This analysis will go over key technical indicators and sentiment gauges as of April 7, 2025 to assess whether a market bottom may be forming.
Volatility and Options Sentiment (VIX, Put/Call Ratio & Implied Volatility)
One classic hallmark of a market bottom is extreme volatility as investors capitulate. The Cboe VIX, Wall Street’s “fear gauge,” recently spiked to 60 on April 7, a level not seen since the early stages of the COVID crash in 2020 and the peak of the Global Financial Crisis in 2008. This move marks a significant shift in sentiment: while in the beginning of last week the VIX was in the low 20s, this surge indicates a full-blown volatility shock, consistent with historical capitulation events. Such a sharp spike strongly suggests the market is experiencing a climax in fear and forced liquidation. Over the past three decades, VIX readings above 50 have typically occurred only at major market bottoms.
This extreme VIX level adds to the growing body of evidence that fear has reached saturation, and we are potentially witnessing the formation of a durable bottom.
Another critical indicator is the put/call ratio, which reflects how aggressively traders are buying put options versus call options. Initially, the ratio hovered around 0.85, indicating moderate bearishness. However, as of April 6, 2025, the put/call volume ratio surged to 2.06 on SPY options specifically, based on live Barchart data. That means traders are buying more than twice as many puts as calls, a level not seen since the COVID crash.
Further reinforcing the signal, SPY’s open interest put/call ratio stands at 1.68 or 1.64 depending on the scource, with put open interest at 10.99 million contracts compared to 6.72 million calls, according to OptionCharts.io. This skew indicates extreme hedging behavior, consistent with historical panic conditions.
Even more striking is the implied volatility (IV) for SPY options:
• IV (30d): 38.52%
• IV Rank: 101.48%
• IV Percentile: 100%
• Historical Volatility: 27.98%
This means the current implied volatility is higher than 100% of the past year’s readings, signaling maximum premium demand for protection. When IV reaches such extremes, it generally implies that traders are paying record-high prices to hedge downside risk—a common occurrence at or just before market bottoms.
In summary, options sentiment now reflects not just fear, but full-blown capitulation:
• VIX at 60 (multi-year high, extremely rare event)
• Put/Call Volume Ratio at 1.68
• SPY IV at 38.52% with 101.5% IV rank
• Put open interest heavily outweighs calls
Taken together, these suggest an intense bearish consensus that, historically, often occurs just before a reversal. While no single metric predicts a bottom, the convergence of these extreme levels across volatility, positioning, and premium costs dramatically increases the probability that a capitulation low is forming or has just formed.
Market Breadth and Technical Trends
Broad market internals provide further clues about the selloff’s severity. Market breadth – the ratio of advancing to declining stocks – has deteriorated dramatically, reflecting how widespread the downturn is. In late March and early April, down-days were strikingly one-sided. For example, during the week of March 31 which, only 188 stocks on the NYSE rose while 2,662 fell, with a staggering 1,073 stocks hitting new 52-week lows (Markets Diary - WSJ). That means roughly 93% of all NYSE-listed issues declined over that period – an extremely weak breadth reading. Such lopsided selling (where virtually everything is “thrown out”) is often seen in the late stages of a bear move, as even high-quality names get caught in the capitulation. That said, some technicians look for 90% down days (when 90%+ of volume and issues are to the downside) as a classic bottom signal. So far we’ve seen readings in the 80-90% range (e.g. about 81% of S&P 500 stocks fell on March 31) (Wall Street searches for elusive signs that market bottom reached | Reuters), but not quite a definitive 90% washout on a single day. The breadth data thus indicates heavy selling pressure, if not a textbook capitulatory flush just yet. But keep in mind this was on march 31st. The real pain came the week after that, with the s&p500 falling 10% in 2 days, a decline I have rarely seen in my 7 year trading career.
Death Cross, might actually signal a bottom instead of a further decline
In terms of trend indicators, the major indices have decisively broken below key moving averages. The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow are all trading well under their 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which confirms the intermediate-term downtrend. In fact, the decline has been steep enough that the market turned into a so-called “death cross” pattern – where the 50-day average crosses below the 200-day average. This crossover is a lagging technical signal, but it underscores that momentum has flipped negative. (Notably, many high-flying stocks from last year have already seen “death crosses” of their own.) While ominous, it’s worth remembering that such signals often follow the bulk of a decline – i.e. by the time a death cross occurs, a significant amount of downside has typically already happened. Often, a death cross appears right when stocks are about to bottom. From a contrarian perspective, technical weakness itself can set the stage for a bottom, as oversold conditions and deeply negative momentum sometimes precede eventual stabilization. Still, at this juncture the price trend remains firmly downward, and bulls would want to see indices regain their moving averages or at least flatten out before declaring a true bottom.
Fear & Greed Index: Sentiment at Extreme Fear. REDICULOUS levels (4/100)
Perhaps the clearest evidence of the market’s psychological state comes from CNN’s Fear & Greed Index, a composite of seven market indicators (market momentum, stock strength, breadth, options activity, junk bond demand, volatility, and safe-haven demand). As of early April 2025, this index is deep in the “Extreme Fear” zone (Best Buys April 2025 - Compounding Quality ). In fact, the Fear & Greed reading has collapsed to levels last seen only during major crises – comparable to September 2008 (the Lehman collapse) and March 2020 (the COVID crash) (Best Buys April 2025 - Compounding Quality ). Such an abysmal sentiment reading of 4/100 indicates that investor psychology is extraordinarily bearish right now. Anecdotally, panicked retail investors and cautious institutions alike are exceedingly risk-averse – selling stocks, hoarding cash or Treasury bonds, and otherwise assuming the worst. Also, gold hit a new all time high on April 3rd, completely shattering the $3000 mark. Another sign of extreme fear in the markets.
From a contrarian standpoint, extreme fear is usually a super bullish signal. The famous adage by Warren Buffett, “Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful,” resonates strongly at moments like this (Market and Investor Sentiment for April 2025 | Certuity). An Extreme Fear reading implies that a lot of bad news and pessimism is already “priced in” to the market. Historically, when the Fear & Greed Index is this low, stocks have often been near a bottom or at least poised for a relief rally (because most investors who were inclined to sell have already done so). It suggests the market may be approaching maximum pessimism, a precondition for a durable bottom. However, sentiment alone doesn’t call the bottom – it’s necessary but not sufficient.
We need to also see actual buying interest returning (or catalysts improving) to confirm a turning point. As one market technician noted, “First you get the fear (capitulation), then you need the positive reaction to confirm a low has been made” (Wall Street searches for elusive signs that market bottom reached | Reuters). Right now we clearly have the fear, but we’re waiting to see if buyers step back in to establish a floor. Looking at the volume of the SPDR S&P500 retail ETF trust, we can see that the volume hit 217.97M. This is the highest volume we have seen since January 2022, which was the low before the index at least saw a significant bounce up.
Macroeconomic Backdrop and Market Psychology
Beyond technicals, the broader macroeconomic narrative and investor psychology cycle provide context for whether a bottom is forming. The current selloff has been catalyzed by a specific shock – a global trade war scenario – which raises uncertainty about economic growth and possibly higher inflation leading to raised interest rates. Newly announced U.S. tariffs and swift retaliation from China have led investors to price in a higher risk of recession (which J. Powell confirmed), shattering the complacency that prevailed in late 2024 (Stock Market on April 4, 2025: Dow plunges 2,231 points into correction territory while Nasdaq enters bear market; S&P 500 books biggest weekly drop since 2020 as China retaliates on tariffs. - MarketWatch) (Hedge funds capitulate, investors brace for margin calls in market rout | Reuters). Just a few months ago, many market participants were optimistic (perhaps overly so) about U.S. economic “exceptionalism” and continued earnings growth. Now, that optimism has flipped to extreme fear and disbelief. We see signs of capitulation on the institutional side: some hedge funds have reportedly liquidated their stock portfolios entirely to cut risk, citing a “chaotic” outlook and unclear future (Hedge funds capitulate, investors brace for margin calls in market rout | Reuters). Margin calls are forcing leveraged investors to sell into the falling market, adding to the sense of forced liquidation. This kind of “get me out at any price” trading behavior is typical of late-stage bear market panic. However, a chain reaction of margin calls could lead to even bigger losses. (this might also be the reason traders both institutional and retail are panicking)
On the psychological curve, markets appear to be transitioning from the “fear” to “capitulation” phase. Complacency (seen when investors kept buying dips earlier despite warning signs) has definitively evaporated. In its place, despair and panic are increasingly evident – but these are ironically the emotions that precede a market bottom in the classic Wall Street psychology cycle. The saying “darkest before dawn” applies: just when sellers are most exhausted and pessimistic, the groundwork for a bottom is laid. I think the article about margin calls for hedgefunds is a good indication of that. There are also early hints of a possible turn in narrative. For instance, the bond market was rallying tonight (this wasn’t the case onas money seeks safety, and traders are starting to anticipate Federal Reserve rate cuts to cushion the economy (Hedge funds capitulate, investors brace for margin calls in market rout | Reuters). Easier monetary policy or a breakthrough in trade negotiations could serve as a catalyst to stabilize stocks. Always keep the possibility of trade negotiations in mind with trump. You never know what he is up to. He could flip 180 degrees in a second, as we have seen his unpredictability in the first quarter of his presidency term.
It’s also worth considering what the next phase after a bottom might look like: often, markets experience a “disbelief rally” – an initial rebound that many mistrust, thinking it’s just a short-lived bounce. If a bottom is indeed forming around now, any rebound in coming weeks might be met with skepticism (investors calling it a “dead cat bounce” or expecting another drop). Such skepticism is normal in early recovery stages; only after the market consistently stops making new lows do investors shift from disbelief to cautious optimism. For now, though, the predominant macro mood is still one of shell-shock. Economic indicators (e.g. manufacturing data and consumer confidence) have weakened, and corporate earnings outlooks are guarded, all of which justify a cautious stance. The collective psyche has moved toward “prepare for the worst”, which, paradoxically, is what creates the conditions for things to start getting better.
Major indices have undergone a sharp correction, valuations have pulled back, and sentiment is extremely bearish – Fear & Greed is at extreme fear (Best Buys April 2025 - Compounding Quality ), put/call ratios are elevated (Wall Street searches for elusive signs that market bottom reached | Reuters), and market breadth shows widespread capitulation-like selling (Markets Diary - WSJ). Importantly, these are the kinds of conditions that historically precede market bottoms, as selling pressure eventually exhausts itself and opportunistic buyers step in. There are early anecdotes of capitulation (e.g. hedge funds giving up on stocks) and volatility has surged, indicating peak fear may be near.
However, it is equally important to note what’s absent or uncertain: No obvious positive catalyst has emerged yet to definitively turn the tide. The risk factors (e.g. trade war, recession odds) are still in play, meaning investors could remain skittish. In essence, the market might be forming a bottom, but it has not conclusively confirmed one. Bottoms are only ever obvious in hindsight. In real time, one can merely weigh the evidence. As of April 7, 2025, the evidence leans toward an aging selloff with growing contrarian appeal – the crowd is very fearful, and value is returning – but patience and caution are warranted. Traders will be watching for telltale confirmation signals of a bottom: stabilization of prices above recent lows, a drop in volatility, improvement in breadth (more stocks advancing), and the market’s ability to rally on bad news (indicating selling has dried up).
For investors, the current environment calls for a balanced, objective approach. The conditions are certainly closer to a bottom than they were a few months ago during the greed/complacency phase, but that doesn’t guarantee the exact bottom is in. It helps to remember that “being early” to a bottom is far better than being late to a panic. I think it is time to DCA aggressively into the markets as of 7 april 2025. With fear running high, long-term investors may find opportunities to start nibbling selectively at high-quality stocks trading at a discount, while keeping some powder dry in case of further downside (Wall Street searches for elusive signs that market bottom reached | Reuters). In summary, the U.S. stock market is showing classic signs of bottoming – extreme fear, heavy hedging, and broad weakness – yet until we see the market’s reaction stabilize (and some resolution to macro risks), it’s prudent to remain vigilant. A bottom could be forming, but confirmation will come only with time and subsequent market action, not simply the calendar. Investors should stay disciplined, focus on quality, and be ready for continued volatility as the market seeks out its true bottom.
Sources: Key market statistics and sentiment indicators were referenced from recent analyses and reports, including Reuters, MarketWatch, and investor sentiment surveys (e.g. CNN Fear & Greed Index) (Wall Street searches for elusive signs that market bottom reached | Reuters) (Stock Market on April 4, 2025: Dow plunges 2,231 points into correction territory while Nasdaq enters bear market; S&P 500 books biggest weekly drop since 2020 as China retaliates on tariffs. - MarketWatch) (Best Buys April 2025 - Compounding Quality ) (Wall Street searches for elusive signs that market bottom reached | Reuters) (Markets Diary - WSJ). These sources provide context on the April 2025 market conditions, highlighting the elevated volatility (Wall Street searches for elusive signs that market bottom reached | Reuters), bearish options positioning (Wall Street searches for elusive signs that market bottom reached | Reuters), weak market breadth (Markets Diary - WSJ), and extreme fear sentiment (Best Buys April 2025 - Compounding Quality ) that characterize the potential bottoming process.
Technical analysis TA:
As for the technical analysis, my self written indicator (which is also based on various community open scource trading view scripts) Shows that we are back in the equilibrium zone. Furthermore, the stochastic RSI has hit 0 on the weekly, and the regular RSI is sitting at 26.6, the lowest level since the 2020 covid crash. Furthermore the indicator printed an 8/9 on the weeikly chart, with 9 giving a checkmark. Usually an 8 or a 9 signals a bottom. The daily chart is sitting at a 7/9, which makes me think that we are at a bottom, if not EXTREMELY close to one. Right now, we have also hit a key support area, the 2022 all time high before the markets crashed like i predicted (see previous articles)
So TLDR: What is the plan?
Of course, timing the market is risky, however I think this is a good time to Dollar Cost Average very aggressively into the markets. Personally I did my first buy ins on Friday April 4th, and will continue to do so this week. EVEN if we end up crashing further, we will always experience a dead cat bounce. Stocks don’t go down in a straight line. As my stocks are in the profit, i will put my stop losses into the profit as well.
If the stop losses get hit into the profit, we wait what the market does. Maybe we buy again, a few weeks later maybe we will stay out and hold cash. Only time will tell what the best plan is when that happens. There is no point in deciding that right now. TDLR: Bottom is most likely in or VERY, Very close. BUY, but keep some cash at hand for if the market declines even further (or to keep healthy margin requirements if we end up buying with leverage, which is a bit riskier. Don’t time the market, but act appropriately. Opportunities like this create wealth for the brave in extreme fear situations. TIME TO BUY, DCA HARD INTO THE MARKETS, but keep a little bit of cash for if we do end up going lower!!!!!!!!!!!! Personally, I think blue chip stocks are a steal right now. And the buying doesn't stop there as mid caps also provide amazing opportunities right now.
It May Be Different This TimeStocks have recently experienced selloffs reminiscent of the subprime crash and Covid. However, there might be something different this time.
This monthly chart of the S&P 500 highlights the three moments in history. The Global Financial Crisis is marked in white. The coronavirus pandemic is in teal and the tariff selloff is colored yellow.
Simple price action on the stock index is mostly comparable, with large solid red candles revisiting levels from months (or years) prior.
Two other charts, however, paint a different picture. They represent risk-off “safe havens” that typically move a certain way versus the “risk-on” S&P 500. The U.S. dollar index typically climbs during sharp downturns in the stock market and the 10-year Treasury yield usually falls as bond prices rise.
The current period, however, has seen the U.S. dollar bleed lower. This is especially puzzling because higher tariffs should reduce imports, which in turn should reduce selling of the greenback.
The 10-year Treasury yield has also made a small move relative to the stock market’s dramatic volatility. TNX broke to multiyear lows during the last two crashes, but this time it’s holding levels from October.
Aside from the apparent anomaly, there could be a few takeaways from this price action.
First, GFC and covid happened during a major secular bull market in Treasuries. But since the pandemic, yields have shown signs of a longer-term upside reversal. If that new trend continues, it may weigh on stock sentiment well into the future.
Second, weakness in the greenback has corresponded to weakness in U.S. stocks. That may reflect capital outflows away from the U.S. as a general market.
Third, the labor market has been resilient. A continuation of that strength could prevent the Fed from cutting interest rates. In other words, it could be the opposite of Goldilocks: an economy that’s too cold to drive profit growth but too warm to justify rate cuts.
Given this potentially challenging mix of factors, investors may ask whether a new secular bear market has begun.
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$SPX Recap of Last Week A historic week with unprecedented tariffs not seen since right before the great depression.
SP:SPX We broke many supports and are looking for Support
Stay Tuned - Today's Trading Range is coming out.
Don't rush into a trader just to trade - But also, if you see a great opportunity take it.
Is the U.S. Stock Market Forming a Bottom? (April 7th 2025, YES)
Is the U.S. Stock Market Forming a Bottom? (April 7th 2025 Analysis) - by Yuri Duursma
Market Overview: Indices in Bear Market Territory
After a strong start to the year, U.S. equities have stumbled extremely badly in recent weeks. The S&P 500 is currently down about 22% below its February 2025 all-time high (as the time of writing this, Monday 7 april 3AM EST time), the index is trading slightly above $4,800) , while the Nasdaq Composite has fallen roughly 26.5% from its peak – putting it deep into a bear market at $16,325 points. Even the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average is in a correction, having slid around 19%+ from its ATH. This broad decline has been accelerated by escalating trade tensions – notably sweeping tariffs announced in early April – which sparked a vicious selloff and the worst week for stocks since 2020 In just the two days following the tariff news, the S&P 500 plunged over 10%, wiping out trillions in market value (Hedge funds capitulate, investors brace for margin calls in market rout | Reuters). Such rapid, across-the-board declines have investors asking: Is the market finally near a bottom, or is there further pain ahead? This analysis will go over key technical indicators and sentiment gauges as of April 7, 2025 to assess whether a market bottom may be forming.
Volatility and Options Sentiment (VIX, Put/Call Ratio & Implied Volatility)
One classic hallmark of a market bottom is extreme volatility as investors capitulate. The Cboe VIX, Wall Street’s “fear gauge,” recently spiked to 60 on April 7, a level not seen since the early stages of the COVID crash in 2020 and the peak of the Global Financial Crisis in 2008. This move marks a significant shift in sentiment: while earlier in the week the VIX was in the low-30s, this surge indicates a full-blown volatility shock, consistent with historical capitulation events. Such a sharp spike strongly suggests the market is experiencing a climax in fear and forced liquidation. Over the past three decades, VIX readings above 50 have typically occurred only at major market bottoms.
This extreme VIX level adds to the growing body of evidence that fear has reached saturation, and we are potentially witnessing the formation of a durable bottom.
Another critical indicator is the put/call ratio, which reflects how aggressively traders are buying put options versus call options. Initially, the ratio hovered around 0.85, indicating moderate bearishness. However, as of April 6, 2025, the put/call volume ratio surged to 2.06 on SPY options specifically, based on live Barchart data. That means traders are buying more than twice as many puts as calls, a level not seen since the COVID crash.
Further reinforcing the signal, SPY’s open interest put/call ratio stands at 1.68 or 1.64 depending on the scource, with put open interest at 10.99 million contracts compared to 6.72 million calls, according to OptionCharts.io. This skew indicates extreme hedging behavior, consistent with historical panic conditions.
Even more striking is the implied volatility (IV) for SPY options:
• IV (30d): 38.52%
• IV Rank: 101.48%
• IV Percentile: 100%
• Historical Volatility: 27.98%
This means the current implied volatility is higher than 100% of the past year’s readings, signaling maximum premium demand for protection. When IV reaches such extremes, it generally implies that traders are paying record-high prices to hedge downside risk—a common occurrence at or just before market bottoms.
In summary, options sentiment now reflects not just fear, but full-blown capitulation:
• VIX at 60 (multi-year high, extremely rare event)
• Put/Call Volume Ratio at 1.68
• SPY IV at 38.52% with 101.5% IV rank
• Put open interest heavily outweighs calls
Taken together, these suggest an intense bearish consensus that, historically, often occurs just before a reversal. While no single metric predicts a bottom, the convergence of these extreme levels across volatility, positioning, and premium costs dramatically increases the probability that a capitulation low is forming or has just formed.
Market Breadth and Technical Trends
Broad market internals provide further clues about the selloff’s severity. Market breadth – the ratio of advancing to declining stocks – has deteriorated dramatically, reflecting how widespread the downturn is. In late March and early April, down-days were strikingly one-sided. For example, during the week of March 31 which, only 188 stocks on the NYSE rose while 2,662 fell, with a staggering 1,073 stocks hitting new 52-week lows (Markets Diary - WSJ). That means roughly 93% of all NYSE-listed issues declined over that period – an extremely weak breadth reading. Such lopsided selling (where virtually everything is “thrown out”) is often seen in the late stages of a bear move, as even high-quality names get caught in the capitulation. That said, some technicians look for 90% down days (when 90%+ of volume and issues are to the downside) as a classic bottom signal. So far we’ve seen readings in the 80-90% range (e.g. about 81% of S&P 500 stocks fell on March 31) (Wall Street searches for elusive signs that market bottom reached | Reuters), but not quite a definitive 90% washout on a single day. The breadth data thus indicates heavy selling pressure, if not a textbook capitulatory flush just yet. But keep in mind this was on march 31st. The real pain came the week after that, with the s&p500 falling 10% in 2 days, a decline I have rarely seen in my 7 year trading career.
Death Cross, might actually signal a bottom instead of a further decline
In terms of trend indicators, the major indices have decisively broken below key moving averages. The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow are all trading well under their 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which confirms the intermediate-term downtrend. In fact, the decline has been steep enough that the market turned into a so-called “death cross” pattern – where the 50-day average crosses below the 200-day average. This crossover is a lagging technical signal, but it underscores that momentum has flipped negative. (Notably, many high-flying stocks from last year have already seen “death crosses” of their own.) While ominous, it’s worth remembering that such signals often follow the bulk of a decline – i.e. by the time a death cross occurs, a significant amount of downside has typically already happened. Often, a death cross appears right when stocks are about to bottom. From a contrarian perspective, technical weakness itself can set the stage for a bottom, as oversold conditions and deeply negative momentum sometimes precede eventual stabilization. Still, at this juncture the price trend remains firmly downward, and bulls would want to see indices regain their moving averages or at least flatten out before declaring a true bottom.
Fear & Greed Index: Sentiment at Extreme Fear. REDICULOUS levels (4/100)
Perhaps the clearest evidence of the market’s psychological state comes from CNN’s Fear & Greed Index, a composite of seven market indicators (market momentum, stock strength, breadth, options activity, junk bond demand, volatility, and safe-haven demand). As of early April 2025, this index is deep in the “Extreme Fear” zone (Best Buys April 2025 - Compounding Quality ). In fact, the Fear & Greed reading has collapsed to levels last seen only during major crises – comparable to September 2008 (the Lehman collapse) and March 2020 (the COVID crash) (Best Buys April 2025 - Compounding Quality ). Such an abysmal sentiment reading of 4/100 indicates that investor psychology is extraordinarily bearish right now. Anecdotally, panicked retail investors and cautious institutions alike are exceedingly risk-averse – selling stocks, hoarding cash or Treasury bonds, and otherwise assuming the worst. Also, gold hit a new all time high on April 3rd, completely shattering the $3000 mark. Another sign of extreme fear in the markets.
From a contrarian standpoint, extreme fear is usually a super bullish signal. The famous adage by Warren Buffett, “Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful,” resonates strongly at moments like this (Market and Investor Sentiment for April 2025 | Certuity). An Extreme Fear reading implies that a lot of bad news and pessimism is already “priced in” to the market. Historically, when the Fear & Greed Index is this low, stocks have often been near a bottom or at least poised for a relief rally (because most investors who were inclined to sell have already done so). It suggests the market may be approaching maximum pessimism, a precondition for a durable bottom. However, sentiment alone doesn’t call the bottom – it’s necessary but not sufficient.
We need to also see actual buying interest returning (or catalysts improving) to confirm a turning point. As one market technician noted, “First you get the fear (capitulation), then you need the positive reaction to confirm a low has been made” (Wall Street searches for elusive signs that market bottom reached | Reuters). Right now we clearly have the fear, but we’re waiting to see if buyers step back in to establish a floor. Looking at the volume of the SPDR S&P500 retail ETF trust, we can see that the volume hit 217.97M. This is the highest volume we have seen since January 2022, which was the low before the index at least saw a significant bounce up.
Macroeconomic Backdrop and Market Psychology
Beyond technicals, the broader macroeconomic narrative and investor psychology cycle provide context for whether a bottom is forming. The current selloff has been catalyzed by a specific shock – a global trade war scenario – which raises uncertainty about economic growth and possibly higher inflation leading to raised interest rates. Newly announced U.S. tariffs and swift retaliation from China have led investors to price in a higher risk of recession (which J. Powell confirmed), shattering the complacency that prevailed in late 2024 (Stock Market on April 4, 2025: Dow plunges 2,231 points into correction territory while Nasdaq enters bear market; S&P 500 books biggest weekly drop since 2020 as China retaliates on tariffs. - MarketWatch) (Hedge funds capitulate, investors brace for margin calls in market rout | Reuters). Just a few months ago, many market participants were optimistic (perhaps overly so) about U.S. economic “exceptionalism” and continued earnings growth. Now, that optimism has flipped to extreme fear and disbelief. We see signs of capitulation on the institutional side: some hedge funds have reportedly liquidated their stock portfolios entirely to cut risk, citing a “chaotic” outlook and unclear future (Hedge funds capitulate, investors brace for margin calls in market rout | Reuters). Margin calls are forcing leveraged investors to sell into the falling market, adding to the sense of forced liquidation. This kind of “get me out at any price” trading behavior is typical of late-stage bear market panic. However, a chain reaction of margin calls could lead to even bigger losses. (this might also be the reason traders both institutional and retail are panicking)
On the psychological curve, markets appear to be transitioning from the “fear” to “capitulation” phase. Complacency (seen when investors kept buying dips earlier despite warning signs) has definitively evaporated. In its place, despair and panic are increasingly evident – but these are ironically the emotions that precede a market bottom in the classic Wall Street psychology cycle. The saying “darkest before dawn” applies: just when sellers are most exhausted and pessimistic, the groundwork for a bottom is laid. I think the article about margin calls for hedgefunds is a good indication of that. There are also early hints of a possible turn in narrative. For instance, the bond market was rallying tonight (this wasn’t the case onas money seeks safety, and traders are starting to anticipate Federal Reserve rate cuts to cushion the economy (Hedge funds capitulate, investors brace for margin calls in market rout | Reuters). Easier monetary policy or a breakthrough in trade negotiations could serve as a catalyst to stabilize stocks. Always keep the possibility of trade negotiations in mind with trump. You never know what he is up to. He could flip 180 degrees in a second, as we have seen his unpredictability in the first quarter of his presidency term.
It’s also worth considering what the next phase after a bottom might look like: often, markets experience a “disbelief rally” – an initial rebound that many mistrust, thinking it’s just a short-lived bounce. If a bottom is indeed forming around now, any rebound in coming weeks might be met with skepticism (investors calling it a “dead cat bounce” or expecting another drop). Such skepticism is normal in early recovery stages; only after the market consistently stops making new lows do investors shift from disbelief to cautious optimism. For now, though, the predominant macro mood is still one of shell-shock. Economic indicators (e.g. manufacturing data and consumer confidence) have weakened, and corporate earnings outlooks are guarded, all of which justify a cautious stance. The collective psyche has moved toward “prepare for the worst”, which, paradoxically, is what creates the conditions for things to start getting better.
Major indices have undergone a sharp correction, valuations have pulled back, and sentiment is extremely bearish – Fear & Greed is at extreme fear (Best Buys April 2025 - Compounding Quality ), put/call ratios are elevated (Wall Street searches for elusive signs that market bottom reached | Reuters), and market breadth shows widespread capitulation-like selling (Markets Diary - WSJ). Importantly, these are the kinds of conditions that historically precede market bottoms, as selling pressure eventually exhausts itself and opportunistic buyers step in. There are early anecdotes of capitulation (e.g. hedge funds giving up on stocks) and volatility has surged, indicating peak fear may be near.
However, it is equally important to note what’s absent or uncertain: No obvious positive catalyst has emerged yet to definitively turn the tide. The risk factors (e.g. trade war, recession odds) are still in play, meaning investors could remain skittish. In essence, the market might be forming a bottom, but it has not conclusively confirmed one. Bottoms are only ever obvious in hindsight. In real time, one can merely weigh the evidence. As of April 7, 2025, the evidence leans toward an aging selloff with growing contrarian appeal – the crowd is very fearful, and value is returning – but patience and caution are warranted. Traders will be watching for telltale confirmation signals of a bottom: stabilization of prices above recent lows, a drop in volatility, improvement in breadth (more stocks advancing), and the market’s ability to rally on bad news (indicating selling has dried up).
For investors, the current environment calls for a balanced, objective approach. The conditions are certainly closer to a bottom than they were a few months ago during the greed/complacency phase, but that doesn’t guarantee the exact bottom is in. It helps to remember that “being early” to a bottom is far better than being late to a panic. I think it is time to DCA aggressively into the markets as off 7 april 2025. With fear running high, long-term investors may find opportunities to start nibbling selectively at high-quality stocks trading at a discount, while keeping some powder dry in case of further downside (Wall Street searches for elusive signs that market bottom reached | Reuters). In summary, the U.S. stock market is showing classic signs of bottoming – extreme fear, heavy hedging, and broad weakness – yet until we see the market’s reaction stabilize (and some resolution to macro risks), it’s prudent to remain vigilant. A bottom could be forming, but confirmation will come only with time and subsequent market action, not simply the calendar. Investors should stay disciplined, focus on quality, and be ready for continued volatility as the market seeks out its true bottom.
Sources: Key market statistics and sentiment indicators were referenced from recent analyses and reports, including Reuters, MarketWatch, and investor sentiment surveys (e.g. CNN Fear & Greed Index) (Wall Street searches for elusive signs that market bottom reached | Reuters) (Stock Market on April 4, 2025: Dow plunges 2,231 points into correction territory while Nasdaq enters bear market; S&P 500 books biggest weekly drop since 2020 as China retaliates on tariffs. - MarketWatch) (Best Buys April 2025 - Compounding Quality ) (Wall Street searches for elusive signs that market bottom reached | Reuters) (Markets Diary - WSJ). These sources provide context on the April 2025 market conditions, highlighting the elevated volatility (Wall Street searches for elusive signs that market bottom reached | Reuters), bearish options positioning (Wall Street searches for elusive signs that market bottom reached | Reuters), weak market breadth (Markets Diary - WSJ), and extreme fear sentiment (Best Buys April 2025 - Compounding Quality ) that characterize the potential bottoming process.
Technical analysis TA:
As for the technical analysis, my self written indicator (which is also based on various community open scource trading view scripts) Shows that we are back in the equilibrium zone. Furthermore, the stochastic RSI has hit 0 on the weekly, and the regular RSI is sitting at 26.6, the lowest level since the 2020 covid crash. Furthermore the indicator printed an 8/9 on the weeikly chart, with 9 giving a checkmark. Usually an 8 or a 9 signals a bottom. The daily chart is sitting at a 7/9, which makes me think that we are at a bottom, if not EXTREMELY close to one. Right now, we have also hit a key support area, the 2022 all time high before the markets crashed like i predicted (see previous articles)
So TLDR: What is the plan?
Of course, timing the market is risky, however I think this is a good time to Dollar Cost Average very aggressively into the markets. Personally I did my first buy ins on Friday April 4th, and will continue to do so this week. EVEN if we end up crashing further, we will always experience a dead cat bounce. Stocks don’t go down in a straight line. As my stocks are in the profit, i will put my stop losses into the profit as well.
If the stop losses get hit into the profit, we wait what the market does. Maybe we buy again, a few weeks later maybe we will stay out and hold cash. Only time will tell what the best plan is when that happens. There is no point in deciding that right now. TDLR: Bottom is most likely in or VERY, Very close. BUY, but keep some cash at hand for if the market declines even further (or to keep healthy margin requirements if we end up buying with leverage, which is a bit riskier. Don’t time the market, but act appropriately. Opportunities like this create wealth for the brave in extreme fear situations. TIME TO BUY, DCA HARD INTO THE MARKETS, but keep a little bit of cash for if we do end up going lower!!!!!!!!!!!! Personally, I think blue chip stocks are a steal right now. And the buying doesn't stop there as mid caps also provide amazing opportunities right now.
SP500 In Reverse: Unpacking the latest markets setbackThe SP500 continued its decline on Friday. The downward price action is now very violent and could continue in the coming days as well. No signs of recovery still..
S&P 500 Breakdown: A Critical MomentThe S&P 500 just hit a wall at 5,074—smack in the middle of a long-term rising channel. After a steady climb since 2020, this index is flirting with a critical resistance zone (the red band). Will it break through to new highs, or is a pullback looming? The stakes are high for retail investors watching this tug-of-war. I’m curious—what’s your take on this setup?
Typical ABC on SPY generally means a rally back upWe should see some short term relief. This is a place to buy oversold stocks after todays gap down.
Great Depression SituationAn idea suggesting that current actions by trump have induced a massive sell off situation
With losses coming in comparable to that of the 1920 depression
I think we are very over extended a pull back is necessary
Yearly chart
4900 best future supportI don't think tariffs will effect USA economy negatively and exaggeration about them in few weeks will fade. 4900 to 4930 will be good support.
S&P INTRADAY futures point to lower open Global stocks sold off sharply on Monday as investors rushed into safe-haven assets, driven by growing concerns over U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs. The market reaction is forcing Wall Street analysts to dial back their bullish outlook on U.S. equities.
Despite the market turmoil, Trump and his team downplayed fears of inflation and recession, remaining confident that strong economic growth lies ahead.
In response, China’s policymakers met over the weekend to discuss potential steps to support the economy, including speeding up planned stimulus measures, according to sources.
Meanwhile, traders are now expecting the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates this year, with some even betting on an emergency rate cut before the Fed’s next scheduled meeting, as recession fears mount.
Oil prices dropped for a third day, with Saudi Arabia cutting the price of its main crude grade by the most in over two years, adding to the bearish sentiment.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 5273
Resistance Level 2: 5379
Resistance Level 3: 5510
Support Level 1: 4815
Support Level 2: 4700
Support Level 3: 4585
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
spx 5100 targetAfter warning of 200 pnts drop yesterday for monday, the futures opened 200 pnts lower at 4800
But expect to see a green bar during the day or tomorrow with 5100 as target to fill some gap and many short sellers taking profit. 4800 is at 2022 peak so technically a strong support
5100 hundred would be a resistance for further downside
If it goes over 5100 and stays there, the trendline break rule fails. Then I will have to review my further downside targets and start being medium term neutral/bullish from bearish and consider 5300 as next target and 4800 as target for double bottom for being bullish
Modified Count to Reflect Recent DeclineIn truth, the levels we're seeing this morning when the SPX cash market opens, I was not anticipating seeing till the 3rd quarter of this year. Mid last week, we had positive MACD divergences on the intraday charts and was setting up to be almost a textbook bottom.
Nonetheless, the SPX cash market will not hold the must hold zone when it opens this morning. This means we will get a retracement higher in a minor wave B that should last some time. This will represent one the final opportunities traders will have to relieve themselves of excess portfolio leverage and risk.
We very well may spend the summer months retracing higher...but there is no doubt some of you reading this will assume this will result in the resumption of the previous bull market.
It will not be.
US Stocks Wipe Out $6.6 Trillion in Two Days—What Just Happened?Shoutout to the real MVPs of April: the traders who did absolutely nothing. You market wizards, zen masters of the sidelines — while others were busy buying the dip that kept on dipping, you outperformed the S&P 500 SP:SPX , avoiding the nastiest market faceplant since the Covid crash of March 2020.
Since April 2, Liquidation Day , Liberation Day , the S&P 500 SP:SPX has nosedived a brutal 10%. That’s officially a correction — the kind that makes you stare out your window like a philosopher, questioning your life choices, your portfolio, and whether you really needed that Nvidia NASDAQ:NVDA call.
This isn’t just a dip. It’s a market reality check served with extra salt. So raise a (half empty?) glass to the ones who stayed flat — you just made Warren Buffett proud . In a world of overtrading, doing nothing was the most alpha move of all.
Everyone who checked the market at least once on Thursday or Friday (even today when futures markets were all red ) knows what that is all about.
It’s Trump’s tariff rollout coming like a wrecking ball. While the US President portrays his efforts as a fair and even lenient response to other countries’ trade policies with the US, investors don't seem to think so.
In just two days, Thursday and Friday, the US stock market washed out $6.6 trillion. The violent selloff threw the Nasdaq Composite NASDAQ:IXIC into a bear market (down 20% from its peak) and the S&P 500 into correction territory. The broad-based Wall Street darling waved goodbye to 6% on Friday, extending its 4.8% loss from the previous day.
On Thursday, Trump unveiled his new plan to boost the US economy through reciprocal tariffs. China got hammered with a total of 54% , while Europe wasn’t spared either, slapped with a flat 20%.
Some uninhabited islands also made the list — Heard and McDonald Islands (Australia's icy outpost) and Jan Mayen (Norway's frozen Arctic rock) got served a 10% tariff.
Now, the thing with tariffs is, they tend to backfire. Because they are paid by the party receiving them, i.e. US companies, they hike the prices of imported goods, squeeze consumers, and isolate the country imposing them. They strain international trade relationships, disrupt supply chains, and — as history shows — often spark retaliation.
And that’s exactly what happened. On Friday, China hit back hard, launching a 34% tariff barrage on US imports — a sharp counter-strike against Trump’s escalating trade war tactics.
What did Trump say on the matter? “CHINA PLAYED IT WRONG, THEY PANICKED - THE ONE THING THEY CANNOT AFFORD TO DO!” he said on his social media platform.
Just as the markets were a dumpster fire on Friday, Federal Reserve boss Jay Powell gave a speech at a business journalists' conference. In his remarks, he said that Trump’s tariffs would cause “higher inflation and slower growth.”
“It is now becoming clear that the tariff increases will be significantly larger than expected. The same is likely to be true of the economic effects,” Powell said.
Trump's response?
“This would be a PERFECT time for Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to cut Interest Rates. He is always ‘late,’ but he could now change his image, and quickly,” Trump wrote in a post. “Energy prices are down, Interest Rates are down, Inflation is down, even Eggs are down 69%, and Jobs are UP, all within two months - A BIG WIN for America. CUT INTEREST RATES, JEROME, AND STOP PLAYING POLITICS!”
So here we are — $6.6 trillion lighter, futures in free fall, inflation fears reignited, and a full-blown trade war back on the table. The Fed’s caught in a political crossfire, Trump’s turning up the heat, and markets are flashing every red light imaginable.
On top of it all, corporate earnings are just around the corner with the big banks on Wall Street kicking off the first-quarter reporting at the end of this week. Keep track of all big reports in the Earnings Calendar .
One thing’s for sure: this isn’t the time to trade on hope or headlines. It’s the time to trade with eyes wide open, risk tightly managed, and a clear understanding that your next move could shape the rest of your year. Most of all, don’t panic .
Off to you now: are you sitting this one out like Buffett — or are you moving in before the smoke clears?
