Markets Open, Guinness Poured—Can SPX Deliver a Perfect Finish?Markets Open, Guinness Poured—Can SPX Deliver a Perfect Finish? | SPX Analysis 17 Mar 2025
SPX feels like it’s stuck on a broken record—a little up, a little down, an occasional intraday yo-yo… and then back to square one. But this time, history might repeat itself—again.
📌 A bullish breakout isn’t off the table, but it needs to clear 5650.
📌 Until then, I’m riding the bear swing lower, watching for a final push.
📌 Friday’s rally took us to the upper range, but futures are hinting at weakness.
I’ve rolled some experimental GEX trades since I’ll be away from the desk Monday, checking in from St. Paddy’s Day festivities.
And if we get one last bearish flush while I’m raising a pint anf splitting the G? Even better. 🍻
Let’s break it down…
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Deeper Dive Analysis:
At this point, the market feels like a Netflix show that’s dragging out an episode—we know something big is coming, but when?
📌 The Setup – A Familiar Pattern, A Familiar Plan
We’ve seen this before.
SPX is back in the same range, teasing another bearish repeat.
Friday’s rally was nice, but futures are already softening.
ADD is at its bullish extreme—suggesting a drop or more sideways churn.
The question is whether this is just a rerun or the start of something new.
📌 The Trade Plan – Patience Pays… and So Does my Guinness
I’m favouring the bearish move for now because:
✅ I still have an open bear swing that’s in play.
✅ I’ve rolled some Friday GEX trades to extend my duration.
✅ A move lower to 5550/5500 would be ideal for exits.
As for the bullish swing, if it plays out:
✅ I won’t need to take action until Tuesday.
✅ 5650 needs to break, and a clear pullback entry to confirm.
📌 Looking Ahead – Let the Market Come to Me
For now, I’m happy letting the market do its thing while I enjoy my long weekend.
If SPX pushes lower, I’ll cash out and move on.
If it grinds sideways, my positions stay in place.
And if it rallies, I’ll reassess on Tuesday.
Either way, my trades are set, my strategy is solid, and my Guinness is cold. 🍀🍻
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Fun Fact
📢 Did you know? The New York Stock Exchange was once closed every St. Patrick’s Day—until 1953, when they decided traders probably shouldn’t get an official day off for drinking.
💡 The Lesson? Markets may evolve, but traders will always find a reason to take a break when they can. 🍻
