S&P 500 LONG Following Trumps inauguration, President Trump didn't speak on his supposed tariff hike which caused the DXY to sink and the futures market to remind steady.
USSP500CFD trade ideas
US500 Price can continue move down Hi traders what do you think about US500 given suggestion in comments.
US500 suggesting a bearish trend with potential support levels at 6015.00 and 5810.00. If you're considering taking a position based on this analysis:
Bearish Trend: You might expect the price to continue lower from current levels.
Entry at 6015.00: If the price approaches this level and starts to show signs of reversal, you could consider shorting (selling).
Support at 5810.00: the price continues to fall or reverses. If it breaks this support, further downside may be expected.
if you like this analysis please support my work like and fallow thanks for love.
US500 (S&P): Trend in 2H time framePlease pay special attention to the very accurate trends, and colored levels.
Do not open a position without TP and SL.
Its a very sensitive setup, please be careful.
BEST,
MT
Weekly GEX Insights: 01/13 SPX dropTotal Correction? What Can an Options Trader Do in This Situation? How Far Might We Fall This Week? We’ll tackle these questions in this week’s options newsletter!
It looks like the new president hasn’t even been sworn in yet, but the market is already reacting with fear to every statement he makes. Last week’s economic data didn’t help ease those concerns either.
SPX Weekly Analysis
Friday’s red candle set a bearish tone heading into this week. Everyone is predicting and pricing in a potential market apocalypse, and I keep getting the same question: “Greg, how far can we fall?”
My answer remains the same: we can fall indefinitely—nobody can know for certain ahead of time.
What we can do, however, is analyze our charts and use the our weekly GEX profile to identify the key levels, so we can better understand the market’s dynamics.
Examining expirations through Friday, every NETGEX profile is negative , so we can expect volatile movements this week. We’re currently trading below the HVL level, which means that market makers are likely to move in tandem with retail traders. This typically results in bigger swings.
We already saw this heightened volatility last week—just look at the size of the candles, and you can tell how quickly sentiment can shift.
Below 5965 (the HVL level), we are in a high volatility zone what lies underneath?
1st Support Range: 5780–5800
5800: Currently the strongest PUT support level on the downside. A correction may pause here due to profit-taking.
Right beneath this level is the previous gap-fill zone. Remember, these areas function as ranges rather than single lines, as I’ve highlighted down to 5780. This could easily be a take-profit target for traders playing gap fills—an approach that’s quite popular.
2nd Support Range: 5700–5650 (Very Strong)
Starting at 5700: We encounter another robust PUT support zone.
This area is reinforced by previous lows, previous highs, and the 4/8 grid boundary from our indicator.
Even if nowhere else, many expect at least a local rebound to occur within these levels.
Putting it all together, it’s clear that the weekly trading range is shaping up to be roughly between 5680 and 5965, expecting big & volatile moves.
Remember, CPI and PPI data are coming out on Tuesday and Wednesday, which could trigger additional volatility.
When looking at SPX, SPY, or /ES futures, my opinion is that the rapidly spiking implied volatility (IV) during a market drop, along with a PUT pricing skew, can present favorable opportunities for options traders. The distance to the strongest lower support zone is around 100–150 points, so you could:
Trade directionally for the short term—hoping to be either right or wrong quickly, or
Try to profit from the market situation in a more strategic way (which is what I typically do).
Personally, I prefer the second approach:
I’ll open short-term (a few days) credit put ratio spreads for a small credit, which gives me a wide breakeven range and a big “tent” on the downside.
Trump Returns to the White House: Tariffs EyedToday’s inauguration is undoubtedly a big event for traders, analysts, and the global economy.
Everyone is watching.
Let’s be frank: regardless of your opinion of Donald Trump or his proposed policies, his Presidential election win over Democrat candidate Kamala Harris on 5 November 2024 was nothing short of remarkable. It was a sweeping victory, and Trump returns to the White House today.
Trump’s inauguration is expected to begin at 5:00 pm GMT (midday EST) and marks the start of his second term in office.
Robust Economy Provides ‘Tariff’ Legroom for Trump
While tariffs are undoubtedly inbound, it is unclear what plans Trump will pursue and when he will implement these strategies. Investors are concerned that imposing tariffs could stoke inflation and hinder consumption (and consequently put the brakes on economic growth).
According to the latest data (December 2024), we have seen an uptick in US inflation. Year-on-year (YY), CPI inflation (Consumer Price Index) rose for a third consecutive month to 2.9%, PPI inflation (Producer Price Index) also increased for a third straight month to 3.3%, and the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) primary measure of inflation, the PCE Index (Personal Consumption Expenditures), is hovering just north of the Fed’s 2.0% inflation target at 2.4% (for November 2024). This, coupled with real US GDP (Gross Domestic Product) running at an annualised rate of 3.1% in Q3 24 and jobs data showing that the US economy added 256,000 new payrolls in December 2024, reveals Trump has legroom (some ‘cover’ if you will) to impose tariffs early on in his tenure.
Trump Tariff ‘Threats’ So Far
Speculation regarding the possibility of as many as 100 executive orders being signed today has been circulating the wires. Plenty of ambiguity is unquestionably present heading into today’s event, and the market dislikes uncertainty.
Concerning tariff ‘plans’, Trump has floated several possible approaches, including 100% tariffs against BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) unless their governments commit to the US dollar (USD), as well as tariff threats against Canada, China, and Mexico. Trump voiced intentions of introducing 25% tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico and adding an additional 10% tariff on goods from China.
What Will I Be Watching Today?
Today, I will primarily be looking for any direction on tariffs, particularly concerning Canada, Mexico, and China.
Let’s assume Trump follows through on his threats to Canada and Mexico. A 25% tariff (or more) applied on goods from Canada and Mexico will prompt upside in currency pairs like the USD/CAD (US dollar versus the Canadian dollar) and USD/MXN (US dollar versus the Mexican peso) – for those who monitor implied volatility, check out USD/CAD; we are at levels not seen since early 2023! A 25% tariff on the aforesaid countries will also likely trigger a bid in the US Dollar Index and absorb offers around major resistance at 109.33. In contrast, major US equity indexes are expected to take a hit in this scenario.
Another observation I feel needs some consideration is the USD positioning heading into this event. The USD is particularly stretched to the upside for those who monitor COT data (Commitment of Traders report). However, although this may be the case, I still expect USD outperformance on the back of 25% tariffs.
Nevertheless, were Trump to pursue a lower tariff rate for Canada and Mexico or not to pursue tariffs at all, a considerable unwind in USD longs is possible, and downside in USD/CAD, USD/MXN, as well as the US Dollar Index, would be on the table (upside in US equities). A situation without tariffs would create considerable volatility and open the door to shorting opportunities in key currency pairs.
Regarding China, if Trump were to follow through and impose a 10% additional tariff, this would likely send USD/CNY northbound (US dollar versus the Chinese yuan). Additionally, I expect the AUD/USD (Australian dollar versus the US dollar) and NZD/USD (New Zealand dollar versus the US dollar) pairs to trade lower, given their trading relationships with China. I also believe US and Chinese equity markets will sell off.
Less than a 10% tariff or no tariffs on China would likely underpin AUD/USD, NZD/USD, and the noted equity markets (but weigh on the USD/CNY). Looking closely at the S&P 500, you will note that longer-term weekly action ended last Friday in the shape of a bullish engulfing formation, following a shallow correction from all-time highs of 6,099. This, together with the clear-cut uptrend and daily price climbing above its 50-day simple moving average at 5,967 (and a lack of obvious daily resistance), places bulls in a favourable position to challenge all-time highs, technically speaking.
Written by FP Markets Market Analyst Aaron Hill
US500
1. Weekly Timeframe
1. Ascending Parallel Channel & Middle Line
• The US 500 has been moving in a broad rising channel. Respect for the midline (the “median” of that parallel channel) can indicate strong internal structure to the uptrend.
• Price repeatedly holding near or above the 20 EMA on the weekly bolsters the view that buyers are active on dips.
2. Order Blocks
• The 5800 area (per your chart scaling) served as a weekly order block where price reacted sharply upward, underlining that region as a significant support/demand zone.
3. Ichimoku
• A bullish Ichimoku profile on the weekly suggests the higher timeframe trend remains up. Cloud support has not been violated.
4. Momentum & Capital Flows
• RSI in the 60+ zone and a MACD that, while it’s in a “bearish waning” phase, is not strongly diverging from price yet.
• CMF (Chaikin Money Flow) staying above zero indicates consistent capital inflows, reinforcing a buy-the-dips sentiment on the weekly timeframe.
Weekly Summary
The weekly trend remains structurally bullish, with dips finding support both at EMAs and near identified order blocks. Momentum is not overheated. Any near-term pullback would likely remain within the broader bullish framework unless it severely violates key structure or the 20/50 weekly EMAs.
2. Daily Timeframe
1. Channel Structures
• You mentioned an ascending channel from the September low that was broken to the downside during the recent consolidation. Since that channel is now invalid, it’s prudent to monitor price action to see how a new channel or range might form.
• The invalidation of a channel can simply mean the market has shifted into a different angle of attack—a new channel or wedge may emerge.
2. EMAs & Bollinger Bands
• Despite the consolidation, the daily EMAs (particularly the 50 and 100) remain upward sloping, which is a hallmark of an intact bullish trend on a medium-term basis.
• Multiple wicks into the 100 EMA, followed by strong closes back above shorter EMAs, highlight that area as reliable dynamic support.
• Hovering in the upper Bollinger band region often correlates with bullish continuation, though it can also precede a near-term pullback if price spends too long “riding the band.”
3. Ichimoku
• Price briefly dipped below the Cloud but has now pushed back inside it. Generally, a close back above the Ichimoku Cloud on the daily would be more definitive proof of renewed bullish momentum, so staying watchful here makes sense.
4. Daily Order Blocks
• You mention the 5842 level and the possibility that the market “closed below” it but then reversed after tagging the 100 EMA. That underscores that not every technical zone breaks price conclusively; strong dynamic support (EMAs) and overall liquidity hunts can overshadow a single daily close below an order block.
5. Momentum Indicators
• RSI’s move back over 50 is a bullish sign of momentum improvement, and the MACD turning positive again on the daily further underpins that reading.
• However, your logic that a short push higher could trigger a contrarian fade (especially if the put-call ratio is extremely low) is consistent with typical overbought or euphoric conditions.
Daily Summary
Still leaning bullish with strong evidence of higher lows and reliable EMA bounces. A near-term pullback could be triggered by an overextension or liquidity sweep. However, dips may be limited or quickly bid up given that daily momentum has reasserted itself to the upside.
3. Four-Hour & Lower Timeframes
1. Recent Bearish Structure / Falling Triangle
• You noted that price broke out of a near-term bearish pattern (descending wedge/triangle).
• The typical post-breakout playbook suggests a retest is likely—this could coincide with the broad idea of not chasing the market. Let it come back, see if a retest holds, and then it’s a safer entry.
2. Order Blocks & Overextension
• The next 4H order block (e.g., ~6056) may be a target on a momentum spurt. If that run materializes quickly, it can “tap” that level and then retrace.
• On the 4H RSI or Stochastics, any overextension into 70-80 zone often leads to a temporary pause. The presence of a contrarian put-call ratio environment lends further credence to expecting a short-term fade.
3. One-Hour Minor Trendline
• Price is riding a minor uptrend line. Intra-day, these lines can break quickly, sometimes triggering algorithmic or retail stops. You anticipate that break, a sell-off that then loses momentum (bearish momentum wanes), and the broader uptrend resumes. That is a classic scenario for trading the “fake breakdown” or retest to see if the higher-timeframe bullish structure is truly intact.
Intraday Summary
The short-term structure has turned positive after the recent breakout. However, be prepared for a retest or a quick liquidity sweep that fakes out short-term traders before resuming the uptrend. Patience is key; avoid FOMO entries.
4. Seasonality & Macro Considerations
1. January Barometer
• The adage goes: “As goes January, so goes the year.” While not a guaranteed prophecy, a strong January often sets a bullish tone for the year.
• We’re seeing typical January volatility. The fact it’s net positive so far supports an overall bullish tilt for 2025 (in your chart’s labeling).
2. Put-Call Ratio
• A low (or persistently dropping) put-call ratio can be a contrarian indicator. Extreme complacency in the options market sometimes precedes short-term pullbacks, even if the bigger trend remains bullish.
3. Economic Backdrop & Earnings
• While you haven’t delved deeply into fundamentals or macro, remember that news flow (earnings, rate expectations, etc.) can disrupt purely technical plays.
• If the fundamental backdrop remains supportive, it can help keep corrections shallow.
Overall Synthesis
analysis points to a medium- to long-term uptrend that is intact (weekly and daily) while acknowledging a near-term risk of an overextension or liquidity sweep (4H and below). The best general approach to avoid FOMO is:
1. Stay Aligned with the Higher Trend
• The weekly/daily structure and indicators (EMAs, RSI, MACD) lean bullish, so buying dips is generally more favorable than trying to short.
2. Wait for a Retest or Waning Bearish Momentum on Lower Timeframes
• Confirmation after a minor pullback, retest of a broken trendline, or a known support (like the 4H or 1H EMAs, Ichimoku Cloud bottom, or an order block) is more reliable than chasing.
3. Manage Risk
• Even if everything looks bullish, the market can and will surprise. Ensure stop-losses are strategically placed below a key structural level (e.g., below the 100 EMA on daily or a prior pivot low).
4. Seasonality Provides a Tailwind
• A positive January frequently begets further strength in equities. However, remain mindful that short-term bouts of volatility are common in any bullish trend.
technical picture: it’s a bullish environment on higher timeframes, with only short-term signals hinting at a possible pullback. The key is patience—focus on a tactical entry when (or if) the market dips rather than FOMO buying into the overextension. If no dip comes and it runs higher, wait for the next consolidation pattern to form and enter on that next, higher low.
SELL SPX *I am in no way a financial advisor and you should always do your own due diligence before placing any trade. Do not trade what you are not comfortable with losing. No trade is guaranteed.
Sell SPX
stop loss: 6025
Take profit: 5783
$SPX Exit Stage LeftWe have several things going on with the SP:SPX Right now. Some say its a bullflag, Some say it's a head and shoulders.
The simplest explanation often being the best, SP:SPX is testing a downtrend line that was formed as a result of price action continuously rejecting at a Supply Level.
Price is consolidating, however with the aggressive short attack on the SP:SPX at the close Friday, valuations being in the clouds and meme coin holders being rugged by world leaders, I would say there is a more than fair chance all this stupidity marks a top.
With a very dubious and undecided CCI, weather we break above first or break lower first does not matter. We are going down.
First target is a closing of that huge Wide open space at 5850. Then Liquidity at 5700 and a third target at 5400.
We will see after that.
Don't forget to Short the NSE:BANKNIFTY too...
S&P 500: Bullish Outlook for Next Week, Targeting 6050
- Key Insights: The S&P 500 is on the brink of a bullish breakout, with strong
support at 5900 and market sentiment leaning positively due to easing
inflation fears. The index is currently testing critical resistance at 6000.
Sustaining above this level could lead to further upward momentum.
- Price Targets:
- Next week targets: T1: 6050, T2: 6100
- Stop levels: S1: 5900, S2: 5850
- Recent Performance: The S&P 500 has seen a notable rally, bouncing off the
5750 support level and showing strong overall performance this week. The
current price at 5996.66 indicates bullish trends, and market confidence
appears to be returning.
- Expert Analysis: Analysts maintain a cautiously optimistic view for the S&P
500, highlighting strong technical patterns and positive economic
indicators. If the index can hold above 6000, this could trigger further
gains and reinforce bullish sentiment.
- News Impact: Recent economic releases regarding consumer sentiment and
inflation have positively impacted market dynamics. The upcoming earnings
season, featuring major companies like Netflix and Johnson & Johnson, could
influence market sentiment. Additionally, speculation around President
Trump's inauguration and potential economic policies adds to the bullish
outlook, but traders should prepare for possible volatility in light of the
Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions.
SPX: on a tricky pathDuring the previous two weeks, the US equity market went through a short term correction, amid investors fears that the Fed might halt further cuts of interest rates during the course of this year, due to stronger than expected jobs market and potential surge in inflation in the US. The December inflation figures were posted during the previous week, which showed that the inflation in the US was held below market expectations, which brought back some optimism among investors. The S&P 500 recovered from losses, and ended the week at the level of 5.996. However, the question still remains if the index took a path toward the upside, or is this only a short term optimism? An inauguration of the new US Administration is scheduled for January 20th, where the markets will closely watch what measures will be actually taken within the first week, from all the promises from the pre-election period. The most challenging move is the one related to trade tariffs with China, which might bring some negative impact to the US economy. In this sense, Monday will be a day to watch during the week ahead.
For one more week, tech stocks were in the focus of market attention during the previous week. Tesla stocks gained over 3% for the week, followed by other big tech companies and the semiconductor industry. The only stock that is still struggling to regain market cap is Apple, whose shares were hit by news that Apple is losing market share in China due to strong competition from local smartphone producers. Banking sector was also closely watched, as they posted quarterly results. As their earnings were higher from expectations, the stocks of major US banks gained significantly within the week. Goldman Sachs and CITI Group were traded higher by roughly 12%, while JPMorgan was traded higher by 8%.
For the week ahead, Monday is the day to watch. After the President-elect won the US elections in November, the market reacted in a positive manner. Whether this optimism will continue to hold after his inauguration is to be seen during the week ahead.
What Is the January Effect on Stock Markets and What Traders Do?What Is the January Effect on Stock Markets and What Traders Do?
The January effect has long fascinated traders, highlighting a seasonal pattern where stock prices, especially smaller ones, tend to rise at the start of the year. But what drives this phenomenon, and how do traders respond? This article dives into the factors behind the January effect, its historical performance, and its relevance in today’s markets.
What Is the January Effect?
The January effect is a term used to describe a seasonal pattern where stock prices, particularly those of smaller companies, tend to rise during January. This phenomenon was first identified in the mid-20th century by Sidney B. Wachtel and has been widely discussed by traders and analysts ever since as one of the best months to buy stocks.
The effect is most noticeable in small-cap stocks, as these tend to show stronger gains compared to larger, more established companies. Historically, this uptick in January has been observed across various stock markets, though its consistency has diminished in recent years.
At its core, the January effect reflects a combination of behavioural, tax-related, and institutional factors. Broadly speaking, the phenomenon is linked to a surge in buying activity at the start of the year. After December, which often sees tax-loss selling as traders offload poorly performing stocks to reduce taxable gains, January brings renewed buying pressure as these funds are reinvested. Additionally, optimism about the new year and fresh portfolio allocations can amplify this trend.
While the January effect was more pronounced in earlier decades, changes in trading patterns and technology have made it less consistent. Yet, it still draws attention, particularly from traders looking for seasonal trends in the market.
Historical Performance and Data
Studies have provided empirical support for the stock market’s January effect. For instance, research by Rozeff and Kinney in a 1976 study analysed data from 1904 to 1974 and found that average stock returns in January were significantly higher than in other months. Additionally, a study by Salomon Smith Barney observed that from 1972 to 2002, small-cap stocks outperformed large-cap stocks in January stock market history by an average of 0.82%.
However, the prominence of the January effect has diminished in recent decades. Some studies indicate that while January has occasionally shown strong performance, it is not consistently the well-performing month. This decline may be attributed to increased market efficiency and the widespread awareness of the effect, leading investors to adjust their strategies accordingly.
Some believe that “as January, so goes the year.” However, Fidelity analysis of the FTSE 100 index from its inception in 1984 reveals mixed results. Out of 22 years when the index rose in January, it continued to produce positive returns for the remainder of the year on 16 occasions. Conversely, in the 18 years when January returns were negative, the index still gained in 11 of those years.
Check how small-cap stocks behave compared to market leaders.
Factors Driving the January Effect on Stocks
The January effect is often attributed to a mix of behavioural, institutional, and tax-related factors that create a unique environment for stock market activity at the start of the year. Here’s a breakdown of the key drivers behind this phenomenon:
Tax-Loss Selling
At the end of the calendar year, many traders sell underperforming stocks to offset gains for tax purposes. This creates selling pressure in December, especially on smaller, less liquid stocks. When January arrives, these same stocks often experience renewed buying as traders reinvest their capital, pushing prices higher.
Window Dressing by Institutions
Institutional investors, such as fund managers, often adjust portfolios before year-end to make them look more attractive to clients, a practice called "window dressing." In January, they may rebalance portfolios by purchasing undervalued or smaller-cap stocks, contributing to price increases.
New Year Optimism
Behavioural psychology plays a role too. January marks a fresh start, and traders often approach the market with renewed confidence and optimism. This sentiment can lead to increased buying activity, particularly in assets perceived as undervalued.
Seasonal Cash Inflows
January is typically a time for inflows into investment accounts, as individuals allocate year-end bonuses or begin new savings plans. These funds often flow into the stock market, adding liquidity and supporting upward price momentum.
Market Inefficiencies in Small-Caps
Smaller companies often experience less analyst coverage and institutional attention, leading to so-called inefficiencies. These inefficiencies can be magnified during the January effect, as increased demand for these stocks creates sharper price movements.
Why the January Effect Might Be Less Relevant
The January effect, while historically significant, has become less prominent in modern markets. A key reason for this is the rise of market efficiency. As markets have become more transparent and accessible, traders and institutional investors have identified and acted on seasonal trends like the January effect, reducing their impact. In financial markets, the more a pattern is exploited, the less reliable it becomes over time.
Algorithmic trading is another factor. Advanced algorithms can analyse seasonal trends in real-time and execute trades far more efficiently than human traders. This means the potential price movements associated with the January effect are often priced in before they have a chance to fully develop, leaving little room for manual traders to capitalise on them.
Regulatory changes have also played a role. For instance, tax reforms in some countries have altered the incentives around year-end tax-loss harvesting, one of the primary drivers of the January effect. Without significant December selling, the reinvestment-driven rally in January may lose its momentum.
Finally, globalisation has diluted the January effect. With global markets interconnected, price trends are no longer driven by isolated local factors. International flows and round-the-clock trading contribute to a more balanced market environment, reducing the impact of seasonal trends.
How Traders Respond to the January Effect in the Stock Market
Traders often pay close attention to seasonal trends like the January effect, using them as one of many tools in their market analysis. While it’s not a guarantee, the potential for small-cap stocks to rise in January offers insights into how some market participants adjust their strategies. Here are ways traders typically respond to this phenomenon:
1. Focusing on Small-Cap Stocks
The January effect has historically been more pronounced in small-cap stocks. Traders analysing this trend often look for undervalued or overlooked small-cap companies with strong fundamentals. These stocks tend to experience sharper price movements due to their lower liquidity and higher susceptibility to seasonal buying pressure.
2. Positioning Ahead of January
Some traders aim to capitalise on the January effect by opening a long position on small-cap stocks in late December, possibly during a Santa Claus rally, anticipating that reinvestment activity and optimism in January will drive prices up. This approach is not without risks, as not all stocks or markets exhibit the effect consistently.
3. Sector and Industry Analysis
Certain sectors, such as technology or emerging industries, may show stronger seasonal performance in January. Traders often research historical data to identify which sectors have benefited most and align their trades accordingly.
4. Potential Opportunities
Active traders might view the January effect as an opportunity for shorter-term trades. The focus is often on timing price movements during the month, using technical analysis to identify entry and exit points based on volume trends or momentum shifts.
5. Risk Management Adjustments
While responding to the January effect, traders emphasise potential risk management measures. Seasonal trends can be unreliable, so diversification and smaller position sizes are often used to potentially limit exposure to downside risks.
6. Incorporating It Into Broader Strategies
For many, the January effect is not a standalone signal but part of a larger seasonal analysis. It’s often combined with other factors like earnings reports, economic data, or geopolitical developments to form a more comprehensive approach.
The Bottom Line
The January effect remains an intriguing market trend, offering insights into seasonal stock movements and trader behaviour. While its relevance may have shifted over time, understanding it can add value to market analysis. For those looking to trade stock CFDs and explore potential seasonal trading opportunities, open an FXOpen account to access a broker with more than 700 markets, low costs, and fast execution speeds.
FAQ
What Is the Stock Market January Effect?
The January effect refers to a historical pattern where stock prices, particularly small-cap stocks, tend to rise in January. This trend is often linked to tax-loss selling in December, portfolio rebalancing, and renewed investor optimism at the start of the year.
What Happens to Stock Prices in January?
In January, stock prices, especially for smaller companies, may experience an uptick due to increased buying activity, caused by a mix of factors, including tax-loss selling, “window dressing”, seasonal cash inflow, new year optimism, and market inefficiencies in small caps. However, this isn’t guaranteed and depends on various contextual factors.
Is December a Good Month for Stocks?
December is often positive for stocks, driven by the “Santa Claus rally,” where prices rise in the final weeks of the year. However, tax-loss selling, overall market sentiment and geopolitical and economic shifts can create mixed outcomes for the stock market, especially for small-cap stocks.
Is New Year's Eve a Stock Market Holiday?
No, the stock market is typically open for a shortened trading session on New Year's Eve. Normal trading hours resume after the New Year holiday.
Which Months Could Be the Best for Stocks?
According to theory, November through April, including January, have been months when stocks performed well. This trend is often attributed to seasonal factors and increased investor activity. However, trends change over time due to increasing market transparency and accessibility. Therefore, traders shouldn’t rely on statistics and should conduct comprehensive research.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Crystal Balling...Yep views are 2025 and possibly 2026 are going to be bad years for markets - expecting trump to say they left him a mess/disaster in the down years and come 2028 everything to be at new highs and him boasting about how good everything is.
FIRE Plays: Riding the Uptrend Wave with Precision!
Hey Traders! 👋
The market is heating up, and emotions are running high. Greed is in the air, and it’s time to channel that energy into smart, calculated moves. Let’s talk about a setup that’s too good to ignore—a classic uptrend channel that’s screaming opportunity. But remember, even in the heat of the moment, discipline is key. Here’s how to play it:
The Setup: Uptrend Channel in Focus 📈
We’re looking at a beautifully improving uptrend channel, and price action is respecting those levels like clockwork. The higher highs and higher lows are telling us one thing: the bulls are in control. But don’t let FOMO (fear of missing out) cloud your judgment. This is where strategy trumps emotion.
Key Levels to Watch 🎯
6.100 Level – The Profit Zone 🚀
This is where the party could start to wind down. As price approaches 6.100, it’s time to tighten those stops and consider taking profits. Greed can turn into regret real quick if you overstay your welcome. Lock in those gains and live to trade another day.
Support Zones – The Safety Nets 🛡️
5.922: The first line of defense. If price pulls back here, it could be a healthy retracement before the next leg up.
5.835: The second support level. A bounce here could signal another buying opportunity, but tread carefully.
5.740 – The Correction Zone ⚠️
If price dips to this level, it’s time to reassess. This could be a deeper correction, and you don’t want to get caught in a reversal. Stay patient and wait for confirmation before jumping back in.
Why This Works 🧠
This setup plays on the two most powerful emotions in trading: greed and fear. The uptrend channel fuels the greed, tempting you to ride the wave higher. But the key levels act as a reality check, reminding you to stay disciplined and protect your capital. It’s a balancing act, and this strategy keeps you on the right side of the trade.
The Bottom Line 💡
The market is a battlefield of emotions, and right now, greed is leading the charge. But smart traders know when to strike and when to step back. Keep an eye on that 6.100 level—it’s your cue to take profits. And if price dips to the support zones, wait for confirmation before making your next move.
Stay sharp, stay disciplined, and let’s make those FIRE plays! 🔥
What do you think? Are you riding this uptrend or waiting for a pullback? Let’s discuss in the comments! 👇
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and trade responsibly.
#TradingView #UptrendChannel #SmartTrading #GreedAndFear #TradeLikeAPro
SP500 Waiting for a pullback With the good news, the indices appear to have broken out of their downward trend. A pullback is expected on the SP500, and this retracement would occur in the 0.5 - 0.61 Fibonacci zone.
SPX500 - still potential to reach a new higher highHello mates, please feel free to share your trading ideas, and please give a Boost if you agree with my trading plan. My trading strategy is Price Action, which is the simplest strategy of trading on the price movement. A key part of my discipline is always setting a Stop Loss when opening a trading position, which ensures every trading is risk managed. Our 1 to 1 trading training is available, please message. Trade well and good luck!
SPX500 BuysMy main focus is that 4hr BISI which is also an 1Hr BISI by the way. the moment we retrace into that area I'll look for a 5mins to 15mins change of structure then I can take it from there. using the London Am session or New York open session prices.
Risk Management is the key to successful trading....
US500/SPX500 "Standard & Poor" Indices Market Bullish Heist Plan🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo!🌟
Dear Money Makers & Robbers, 🤑 💰
Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the "US500 / SPX500" Indices market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes long entry. Our aim is the high-risk Red Zone. Risky level, overbought market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bearish robbers are stronger. Be wealthy and safe trade.💪🏆🎉
Entry 📈 : You can enter a Bull trade after the breakout of MA level 5960 (OR) Entry in Pullback 5820
Stop Loss 🛑: Using the 2H period, the recent / nearest low or high level.
Goal 🎯: 6000.00 (or) escape Before the Target
Scalpers, take note 👀 : only scalp on the Long side. If you have a lot of money, you can go straight away; if not, you can join swing traders and carry out the robbery plan. Use trailing SL to safeguard your money 💰.
Warning⚠️ : Our heist strategy is incompatible with Fundamental Analysis news 📰 🗞️. We'll wreck our plan by smashing the Stop Loss 🚫🚏. Avoid entering the market right after the news release.
Fundamental Outlook 📰🗞️
Expected Trend: The US500/S&P500 index is expected to move in a bullish trend.
Drivers of the Trend: The bullish trend is driven by:
Strong US economic growth
Low interest rates
A potential rebound in corporate earnings
Current Price: The current price of the S&P 500 is around 5802.
Client Sentiment: 51% of client accounts are holding long positions on this market.
Top Risers: Some of the top risers in the US500 index include stocks with percentage changes of:
27.55%
5.8%
32.96%
Top Fallers: Some of the top fallers in the US500 index include stocks with percentage changes of:
-26.21%
-17.09%
-49.06%
Dow Jones Index: The Dow Jones index has been holding support, despite rising yields putting pressure on global indices.
Earnings Growth: The S&P 500 is expected to report its strongest earnings growth since Q4 2021, with an 11.9% increase.
Market Sentiment:
Bullish Sentiment: 60% of traders and investors are bullish on the US500/S&P500, expecting the market to continue its upward trend.
Bearish Sentiment: 30% of traders and investors are bearish on the US500/S&P500, expecting the market to pull back or reverse its trend.
Neutral Sentiment: 10% of traders and investors are neutral on the US500/S&P500, waiting for more information or confirmation before making a trade.
Please note that this is a general analysis and not personalized investment advice. It's essential to consider your own risk tolerance and market analysis before making any investment decisions.
Take advantage of the target and get away 🎯 Swing Traders Please reserve the half amount of money and watch for the next dynamic level or order block breakout. Once it is resolved, we can go on to the next new target in our heist plan.
Keep in mind that these factors can change rapidly, and it's essential to stay up-to-date with market developments and adjust your analysis accordingly.
💖Supporting our robbery plan will enable us to effortlessly make and steal money 💰💵 Tell your friends, Colleagues and family to follow, like, and share. Boost the strength of our robbery team. Every day in this market make money with ease by using the Thief Trading Style.🏆💪🤝❤️🎉🚀
I'll see you soon with another heist plan, so stay tuned 🫂
Analyzing Key Forex Patterns and IndicatorsAnalyzing the SPX500 chart reveals several key patterns and indicators critical for forex trading
1. Support and Resistance Levels:
Resistance Zone: The blue-shaded area around the 6,071 level is a significant resistance zone where the price has struggled to break through.
Support Level: The horizontal blue line at approximately 5,840 (labeled "SMS") represents a notable support level where buying interest has emerged in the past.
2. Swing High (SH):
The red horizontal line marked "SH" around the 6,077 level highlights a failed swing high, indicating a previous peak in price.
3. Price Movements:
There is a notable decline from the resistance zone around 6,020 to a low near 5,770, followed by a recovery towards the 6,000 level.
4. Volume:
The volume, indicated as "Vol 7.14K" at the top of the chart, provides insight into the trading activity during this period.
Potential Effectiveness of this Technical Signals:
Resistance Zone: If the price breaks above this level with strong volume, it could signal a bullish trend continuation. However, failure to break through may indicate a reversal or consolidation.
Support Level: Maintaining above this support level is crucial for a bullish outlook. A break below could signal a bearish trend and further downside potential which the break has occured.
Swing High (SH): The swing high at 6,020 serves as a reference point for potential resistance. Approaching this level again will be a key area for observing either a breakout or a reversal.
These technical signals are effective in predicting market movements as they reflect historical price action and trader behavior. However, they may fail due to unexpected news, economic events, or changes in market sentiment that can cause deviations from historical patterns.
In summary, the chart offers valuable insights into support and resistance levels, swing highs, and price movements, which are essential for making informed trading decisions in the forex market.
US Stocks Surge as Trump Takes Office: Will the Rally Continue?The US stock market is buzzing with excitement as President-elect Donald Trump's inauguration on January 20 approaches. On Friday, January 17, the major indices saw significant gains, with:
● S&P 500 SP:SPX rose 59 points, or 1%
● Dow Jones Industrial Average TVC:DJI increased 335 points, or 0.8%
● Nasdaq composite NASDAQ:IXIC surged 292 points, or 1.5%
◉ Major Sector Driving Gains
The technology sector, particularly the "Magnificent Seven" stocks, has been instrumental in this upward momentum.
◉ Investor Sentiment
Investors are optimistic about Trump's policies, but concerned about potential inflationary pressures. Experts believe Trump's administration could lead to significant growth due to:
1. Increased Government Stimulus: Trump's background as a real estate developer may result in policies designed to stimulate economic growth.
2. Technological Innovation: Rapid advancements in technology are expected to create new industries and opportunities.
3. Lower Interest Rates: There is speculation that Trump may implement lower interest rates to further encourage economic expansion.
Overall, the market is cautiously optimistic, with investors closely monitoring Trump's policies.
US100 Breakout Incoming
US-500 Analysis
Weekly Chart Overview
• Trend: The US-500 is firmly in an uptrend, trading within a larger ascending channel since July. Price action continues to respect this channel, with the most recent weekly candle forming a bullish engulfing pattern off a key Fibonacci retracement level.
• Volume Profile: Price remains in a medium-volume zone, with the weekly POC at 5,562, marking a critical level of interest for institutional participation.
• Indicators:
• EMAs: All EMAs are aligned upward with significant spacing, highlighting the strength of the current trend.
• Ichimoku Cloud: Price is well above the weekly cloud, confirming bullish momentum.
• RSI and MACD: RSI has climbed from 53 to 59, aligning with the recent bounce, while MACD shows waning bearish momentum, supporting a potential continuation of the uptrend.
• Fibonacci Insights:
• The retracement from the 5th August to 2nd December wave suggests the 0.236 level played a role in the recent bounce, indicating that the current higher-low formation aligns with broader trend dynamics.
• Using the breakout point from 9th September, the 38.2% retracement level aligns precisely with the recent reversal, providing additional confluence.
Daily Chart Overview
• Trend: On the daily chart, price action has been in a consolidation phase since breaking below an ascending channel on 17th December. However, the price has repeatedly bounced off a daily order block at 5,874 to 5,828, establishing a robust support zone.
• Key Developments:
• Recent price action shows a breakout above the daily POC at 5,919, with the price now above the 20 EMA and 50 EMA.
• Bollinger Bands: Price is within the upper band, signaling renewed strength.
• Fibonacci Insights:
• The bounce aligns with the 0.786 retracement level, suggesting the potential formation of a higher-low structure, which is often a precursor to trend continuation.
• Fibonacci retracements and extensions provide insights into market liquidity levels, where institutional activity is likely to cluster.
• Indicators:
• RSI is back above 50, confirming a shift in momentum.
• MACD has turned green, and CMF is positive at 0.03.
• ADX at 30.57 shows a weakening bearish trend, while DI lines converge, indicating diminishing bearish pressure.
4-Hour Chart Overview
• Trend: Price action recently broke out of a descending wedge, which had been characterized by lower-lows and lower-highs during the consolidation phase. This breakout aligns with bullish sentiment seen on higher timeframes.
• Key Levels:
• Price is testing a daily order block, showing initial rejection, with potential for short-term retracement.
• Fibonacci extensions reveal the move has reached a 100% retracement of the previous downtrend, a critical level for monitoring potential liquidity grabs.
• Indicators:
• RSI is at 67.93, nearing overbought territory, suggesting possible short-term exhaustion.
• MACD remains above zero, though bullish momentum is waning.
• CMF is increasing at 0.16, signaling accumulation.
Exclusive Indicator Insights
Our custom indicators provide a critical edge in identifying key zones:
• Weekly Buy Region: The first green bar since consolidation appeared last week, signaling a shift in sentiment and potential alignment with broader bullish momentum.
• Daily Buy Region: Currently unshaded, reflecting a lack of confirmation on the daily timeframe, underscoring the importance of higher timeframe alignment.
Summary and Outlook
• Weekly Chart: The higher-low formation, supported by Fibonacci retracements and a bullish engulfing candle, points to strong bullish momentum.
• Daily Chart: The breakout above the POC and key EMAs signals a potential end to the consolidation phase, with order blocks and retracements offering critical areas to monitor.
• 4-Hour Chart: While the breakout is promising, near-term corrections are possible as the RSI approaches overbought levels and momentum wanes.
Stay Tuned
Our exclusive indicators, particularly the Weekly Buy Region and Daily Buy Region, are designed to highlight actionable zones with precision, making them invaluable tools for indices like the US-500. Stay connected to our Minds channel and follow our ideas to gain access to specific entries and further updates as we refine our setups.
Blood on the Street Next Week, S&P Drop incomingI had expected to see the index start falling this past week, so it was surprising to see it rise in such aggressive bursts, even leaving gaps preceding the last three days' openings. This displayed great strength which, Im expecting, induced many investors to go long. This in my view is just as intended to trap them and close them out on a loss this upcoming week by breaking down sharply and filling out the gaps left behind.
As a confirmation of this I'm awaiting to see it move below Friday's low which should really tip the price pressure lower after initially catching some of Friday's longs and generating momentum on those liquidations.
Ideally, the price won't revisit the high at 6,055 but the ultimate invalidation point is at the all-time high.
Happy Trading :)
S&P 500 Hyperwave ScenarioIn a hyperwave scenario, where each phase achieves approximately the same return in half the time, the S&P 500 would be at around 8500 in August. An invalidation of this scenario would be a lasting break in the trendline and the target would be the base, which does not have to be reached.
Down for SPX500USDHi traders,
Last week SPX500USD came into the Daily FVG and rejected from there to the upside. It could be that the WXY correction is finished and price is now going up again to a new ATH.
Next week we could see a (corrective) move down and after that more upside.
Let's see what the market does and react.
Trade idea: Wait for a bigger correction down to finish. After that you could trade longs.
If you want to see more from my analysis, please make sure to follow me, give a boost and respectful comment.
This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my analysis.
If you don't agree, that's fine but I don't need to know it. I do not provide signals.
Don't be emotional, just trade!
Eduwave
