SPX & SPX BEAR FLAG ALERT Did we just set up for a Bear Flag rejection for GDP tomorrow? At the 200DMA & Daily 35EMA
Let's close a little bit up from here on the day and then let's go!!
USSP500CFD trade ideas
Not bottom if no market haltWe haven’t seen anything yet, it may go back up a little due to dead cat bounce buying but if there is no market halt, I don’t see anyone even contemplating wasting good money buying long yet.
Liberation or Obliteration?Notice the pattern here, the last time we had a fed pivot the market went up for a couple of months and then a huge draw down. History doesn’t always repeat but it often rhymes. We are being held up by the 0.382 Fib, so we are technically still bullish believe it or now.
What’s next? If the tariff issues are not resolved we will get a total melt down, the likes of which we haven’t seen before.
So if you are hopeful that the tariffs will be resolved, this is an excellent opportunity to buy the dip. I was largely long gold but I have not almost exited my position, please look at my trade idea on gold which was a textbook long.
Now I’m putting that cash to work and slowly buying up the best assets the market has to offer. I will add to my long term investment in the AI companies, data center and top class software names. But I’m not going all in, I’m reserving dry powder for more draw downs. For now this technical analysis suggests now is the time to be slowly deploying.
Not financial advice, do what’s best for you.
Two ideas.With the recent price fall, it gives us two Elliott waves ideas.
An ending diagonal, which should take the price down to the $4800/ $4500 level, in a Wave 4. Then a muted Wave 5, which would complete the big wave pattern.
Or this drop is a C wave in an expanding flat pattern. This is a dramatic pattern, which should take the price down to the $3650- $3227 range, and very quickly, before the bull market continues.
4,700 Then Bounce200 W SMA seems like solid support. The trend line looks like it meets there in June, maybe sooner if next week is like this week.
SHORT TERM BOTTOM/BUYZONE w/SELL ZONE.Charting a short-term bottom (3mos. - 6mos.) We may quest to 5000. However, I believe this to be the end of a two part measured move to the downside.
Trump’s Triumph or Tragedy?Introduction
The S&P 500 recently faced a sharp decline, with many rushing to blame renewed trade war tensions under President Trump's second term. But is this downturn truly a political reaction — or was it already baked into the market’s DNA?
A deeper dive using Elliott Wave Theory suggests something far more structural: the recent fall is part of a broader wave pattern, and the real crash hasn’t even begun.
A Look Back: How the Market Reacted to Tariffs in Trump's First Term
During Trump’s first presidency:
First Tariff Hike caused an 11.77% drop
Second Tariff Hike led to an 8.35% decline
China’s reaction triggered a 20% fall
Despite this turbulence, the market rebounded sharply, climbing 44% post-trade war — forming a textbook Wave 5 extension.
This historical context is crucial: event-based declines often align with technical wave structures, not random panic.
Why the Market Fell Now (and Not Earlier)
Trump’s second term victory wasn’t unexpected. Neither was his return to tariff-heavy policies.
So why didn’t the market react earlier?
📉 Because this isn’t about tariffs. It’s about Wave 4.
The current market downturn coincides with the natural Wave 4 correction of a multi-decade Elliott Wave cycle. This phase is often sharp and emotional — yet incomplete. The final Wave 5 rally is still ahead, possibly pushing the index to new highs above 7,000.
The Calm Before the Storm: What Comes After Wave 5
Following the euphoric rally of Wave 5, the market is expected to face a massive correction — Wave II — projected to be as severe as the 2008-09 financial crisis, if not worse.
Potential triggers:
Overleveraged markets
Global debt bubbles
Geopolitical instability
Inflation shockwaves
AI and tech overvaluation
Conclusion: Trump’s Triumph or Tragedy?
This wave analysis raises the question: will Trump’s second term be remembered for a market rally or a devastating crash?
The answer may be both.
✅ Short-term triumph via Wave 5
⚠️ Long-term tragedy via Wave II
The smart investor will ride the wave — but also prepare for the fall.
Key Takeaways:
Current decline = Wave 4, not the final crash
Wave 5 (upside) may still take S&P to new highs
Post-Wave 5 = Major correction, possibly like 2008
Trump’s tariffs are catalysts, but not the root cause
Technical patterns > political events in long-term moves
Absolute craziness ! SP500 retesting 6k and SHORTHello fellow traders
This idea is mainly based on an assumption this craziness can't go any longer! Look at RSI, the divergency overheated level tested, price channel?? Early recession signs, AI bubble, etc
Please protect your capital, have a SL which won't cause you sleepless nights :D
This is just an idea not a trading advise! Good luck anyone who's with me
Markets hate tariffs but traders love discounts
SPX500 is down over 12.2% YTD
Volatility Index (VIX) is above 40 — elevated fear in the market
SPX support zone likely around 4,888
Historical patterns show strong rebounds near similar volatility spikes
This could be a prime entry point — keep your cash ready
With tariffs back in play, volatility could spike — stay ready for discounted entries
Trump’s Triumph or Tragedy?The S&P 500 recently faced a sharp decline, with many rushing to blame renewed trade war tensions under President Trump's second term. But is this downturn truly a political reaction — or was it already baked into the market’s DNA?
A deeper dive using Elliott Wave Theory suggests something far more structural: the recent fall is part of a broader wave pattern, and the real crash hasn’t even begun.
A Look Back: How the Market Reacted to Tariffs in Trump's First Term
During Trump’s first presidency:
First Tariff Hike caused an 11.77% drop
Second Tariff Hike led to an 8.35% decline
China’s reaction triggered a 20% fall
Despite this turbulence, the market rebounded sharply, climbing 44% post-trade war — forming a textbook Wave 5 extension.
This historical context is crucial: event-based declines often align with technical wave structures, not random panic.
Why the Market Fell Now (and Not Earlier)
Trump’s second term victory wasn’t unexpected. Neither was his return to tariff-heavy policies.
So why didn’t the market react earlier?
📉 Because this isn’t about Tariffs . It’s about Wave 4.
The current market downturn coincides with the natural Wave 4 correction of a multi-decade Elliott Wave cycle. This phase is often sharp and emotional — yet incomplete. The final Wave 5 rally is still ahead, possibly pushing the index to new highs above 7,000.
The Calm Before the Storm: What Comes After Wave 5
Following the euphoric rally of Wave 5, the market is expected to face a massive correction — Wave II — projected to be as severe as the 2008-09 financial crisis, if not worse.
Potential triggers:
Overleveraged markets
Global debt bubbles
Geopolitical instability
Inflation shockwaves
AI and tech overvaluation
Conclusion: Trump’s Triumph or Tragedy?
This wave analysis raises the question: will Trump’s second term be remembered for a market rally or a devastating crash?
The answer may be both.
✅ Short-term triumph via Wave 5
⚠️ Long-term tragedy via Wave II
The smart investor will ride the wave — but also prepare for the fall.
Key Takeaways:
Current decline = Wave 4, not the final crash
Wave 5 (upside) may still take S&P to new highs
Post-Wave 5 = Major correction, possibly like 2008
Trump’s tariffs are catalysts, but not the root cause
Technical patterns > political events in long-term moves
SP500- Don't be fooled by yesterday's pumpThe markets reacted strongly to Jerome Powell's latest commentary, sparking a notable rally. However, traders should be cautious before assuming this marks the beginning of a new uptrend. While there has been a slight shift in market structure, the broader trend remains intact. Overlooking the strength of the next resistance level could prove to be a costly mistake.
The Big Picture: S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis
Examining the TRADENATION:US500 posted daily chart, the key question is: has the trend truly reversed? While a green-bodied candle signals some bullish momentum, SP500 remains below critical resistance levels. Notably, it closed beneath what I call the "Do or Die" zone—an area that aligns with prior lows and, more importantly, the daily 200 SMA. This suggests that what we’re seeing could be a lower high forming within the broader downtrend.
Hourly Outlook:
On the hourly chart, we see a strong reversal from 5500, but the move appears corrective rather than impulsive. It seems to be forming an ABC-style correction, with the market currently in wave C. Calculating the potential top of wave C, we find it aligns perfectly with a key resistance level and the 200-day SMA.
Conclusion:
While we may see some upside heading into the end of the week, I believe this rally will be short-lived. Once SP retests the broken support—now acting as resistance—I expect the downward trend to resume, with my target remaining at 5200 (as previously discussed).
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analyses and educational articles.
Capitulation Might be Close, but A Big Low Could Be Also.I've explained for a while my idea if 5500 isn't support for SPX then we see a capitulation period to the 5100 sort of area.
I think the case for this is picking up increasing merit. For a while I've not really been sure what to expect if that happened. My natural tendency to fade moves would make me naturally bullish but some different outcomes I considered would have that move being an important break and us only consolidating before heading lower.
With the way all of this is shaping up, I think if I see a capitulation period now I have a strong bull bias. I do think we might be setting up a much larger decline overall but a sharp drop here would usually give some sort of bull trap.
There are different ranges of bull traps. Shallow, mid and deep and spike out. Modern day markets run perpetually on hard-mode so it's reasonable to expect the most tricky one.
Big bull bias for the immediate term if we put in a capitulation swing.
I built up a position into the rally today. Which was not a lot of fun during sections of the day and harrowing for a moment late in the day but has me positioned well into the rally. I'm looking for a move down to under 5200 and close to 5100. My target would be 5150 or so at biggest with aggressive locking in near 5200.
If this move hits (especially if it hits with bad news), will be super bullish for the near term - but I would consider this an important bear break if it comes.
Deja Vue: Exactly the same as Trump 1 Tarif's till nowJust copy and scale... It's constructed and nothing else!
What are Tariffs? How They Work and Why They Matter to You?For centuries, tariffs have played a crucial role in global trade, safeguarding domestic industries, shaping international relations, and influencing economic policies. While they often dominate headlines during trade wars and economic policy debates, many people still don’t fully understand what tariffs are, why they are used, and how they impact the economy.
This comprehensive guide covers:
⦿ What tariffs are and how they work
⦿ Different types of tariffs
⦿ Why governments impose tariffs
⦿ The economic, political, and social effects of tariffs.
⦿ Historical and modern examples
⦿ The debate between protectionism and free trade
⦿ Tariffs in different economic systems
⦿ The future of tariffs in a globalized world
By the end of this article, you’ll have a decent understanding of tariffs and their role in the global economy.
🤔 What Are Tariffs?
A tariff is a tax imposed by a government on imported goods and services. The primary purpose of tariffs is to increase the cost of foreign products, making domestically produced goods more attractive to consumers. This serves several economic and political functions, such as protecting domestic industries, generating government revenue, and addressing trade imbalances.
👍 How Do Tariffs Work?
A government sets a tariff rate on imported goods (e.g., 25% on foreign cars).
Importers must pay this tax when bringing goods into the country.
This increases the cost of imported goods, enhancing the competitiveness of domestic alternatives.
Domestic industries benefit from reduced foreign competition.
The government collects revenue from the tariff.
🦸♂ Who Pays the Tariff?
Importers: These businesses or individuals directly pay the tariff when they bring goods into the country. This increases their costs.
Businesses: Since importers face higher costs, businesses that rely on imported goods often pass these costs onto consumers by increasing prices.
Consumers: Ultimately, the general public bears the cost as they pay higher prices for goods affected by tariffs.
🔎 Types of Tariffs
Governments employ various tariffs depending on their economic goals and trade policies. Some of these are:
1️⃣ Ad Valorem Tariffs
An ad valorem tariff is a percentage-based tariff calculated on the value of the imported goods. The tax amount increases or decreases with the price of the product.
Example: A 10% tariff on imported TVs means a $1,000 TV incurs a $100 tariff.
Usage: Commonly used for luxury goods, automobiles, and consumer electronics.
2️⃣ Specific Tariffs
A specific tariff is a fixed fee charged per unit of imported goods, regardless of price.
Example: $3 per barrel of imported oil.
Usage: Often used for commodities like oil, wheat, and alcohol.
3️⃣ Compound Tariffs
A compound tariff includes both a percentage-based tax (Ad valorem) and a fixed fee on imports (Specific). This means importers pay a fixed fee per unit as well as a percentage of the item’s value.
Example: A 5% tax plus $2 per imported cheese wheel.
Usage: Applied to goods where both quantity and value affect the market, such as food products and industrial materials.
4️⃣ Tariff-Rate Quotas (TRQs)
A TRQ allows a limited quantity of an imported good to enter at a lower tariff rate. After the quota is reached, extra imports are taxed at a higher rate.
Example: One of the most well-known examples of a TRQ is the U.S. Sugar Tariff-Rate Quota. The United States allows a certain quantity of sugar to be imported each year at a lower tariff rate. Any sugar imports within the quota limit are subject to a low tariff (e.g., 5%).
However, once the quota is exceeded, any additional sugar imports face a much higher tariff (e.g., 20%). This system ensures that domestic sugar producers remain competitive while still allowing controlled imports to meet demand.
Another example is the European Union's TRQ on Beef Imports. The EU permits a specific amount of high-quality beef imports (e.g., from the U.S. and Canada) at a lower tariff. Once this quota is filled, any additional beef imports are taxed at a significantly higher rate. This policy helps protect EU cattle farmers while maintaining trade agreements with international suppliers.
5️⃣ Protective Tariffs
A protective tariff helps local industries by making imported goods more costly, reducing foreign competition.
Example: The U.S. imposed a 25% tariff on Chinese steel to protect domestic steel manufacturers.
Usage: Commonly used in industries facing strong foreign competition, such as steel, automotive, and textiles.
6️⃣ Revenue Tariffs
A revenue tariff is mainly designed to raise money for the government, not to shield local industries.
Example: In the 19th century, tariffs were the main source of revenue for the U.S. government before income taxes were introduced.
Usage: Often applied to goods that do not have strong domestic competition but are widely consumed, such as alcohol and tobacco.
❓ Why Do Governments Impose Tariffs?
1️⃣ Protecting Domestic Industries
Tariffs shield local businesses from cheaper foreign competitors, helping domestic industries grow.
Example: U.S. steel tariffs in 2018 benefited domestic steel manufacturers.
2️⃣ Generating Government Revenue
Before modern taxation systems, tariffs were a key source of revenue for governments.
Example: In the 1800s, tariffs accounted for 90% of U.S. federal revenue.
3️⃣ National Security Concerns
Some industries, like defense and technology, are crucial for national security, and governments impose tariffs to reduce reliance on foreign suppliers.
Example: The U.S. limits imports of rare earth minerals to ensure a domestic supply chain for defense technologies.
4️⃣ Retaliation in Trade Wars
Countries impose tariffs to address unfair trade practices or economic conflicts.
For instance, during the trade war between the United States and China, both countries imposed taxes on each other's goods
5️⃣ Preventing Dumping
Dumping occurs when a country exports goods at below-market prices to eliminate competition.
Example: The U.S. imposed tariffs on Chinese solar panels due to concerns about dumping.
⚖️ Pros and Cons of Tariffs
Pros
✅ Protects local jobs and industries
✅ Encourages domestic production
✅ Generates government revenue
✅ Enhances national security by reducing reliance on foreign goods
Cons
❌ Increases prices for consumers
❌ Can lead to trade wars and economic retaliation
❌ Encourages inefficiency in domestic industries
❌ Disrupts global supply chains
📕 Historical and Modern Examples of Tariffs
1. The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act (1930)
The U.S. imposed tariffs on over 20k imported goods.
Result: Other countries retaliated, global trade dropped by 66%, and the Great Depression worsened.
2. Trump’s Tariffs on China (2018-2020)
The United States levied tariffs on $360 billion worth of Chinese goods.
China retaliated, affecting U.S. agriculture exports.
Result: Some U.S. industries benefited, but consumers faced higher prices.
3. The European Union’s Tariffs on U.S. Goods (2021)
The EU imposed tariffs on American whiskey, motorcycles, and jeans in response to U.S. steel tariffs.
Result: Brands like Harley-Davidson saw reduced sales in Europe.
⚙️ Tariffs vs. Free Trade: The Big Debate
The debate between tariffs and free trade is a fundamental discussion in global economics and trade policy. This debate revolves around whether governments should impose tariffs (taxes on imported goods) or embrace free trade (minimal to no restrictions on imports and exports).
◉ Free Trade (No Tariffs)
Free trade is the unrestricted movement of goods and services across borders without tariffs or other trade barriers. Advocates argue that it fosters economic efficiency and global cooperation.
✅✅ Advantages of Free Trade
Lower Prices for Consumers – Without tariffs, imported goods are cheaper, leading to more affordable products.
Increased Economic Growth – When countries trade freely, they specialize in what they do best, leading to higher productivity and economic expansion.
More Competition = Better Products – Companies must compete on quality and innovation rather than relying on government protection.
Stronger Global Relations – Open markets encourage cooperation between nations, reducing the risk of economic conflicts.
Access to More Goods and Services – Consumers enjoy a greater variety of products at lower costs.
❌❌ Disadvantages of Free Trade
Job Losses in Unprotected Industries – Domestic industries that can't compete with cheaper imports may shrink or shut down.
Dependence on Foreign Suppliers – A country may become overly reliant on other nations for essential goods (e.g., medical supplies, electronics).
Potential Trade Deficits – Countries that import more than they export may struggle with imbalances in trade.
◉ Protectionism (Using Tariffs)
Protectionism refers to economic policies that restrict imports through tariffs, quotas, or other barriers to shield domestic industries from foreign competition.
✅✅ Advantages of Tariffs
Protects Local Jobs and Industries – Domestic businesses have a better chance to compete without being undercut by cheaper imports.
Reduces Dependence on Foreign Competitors – A country can maintain its own manufacturing and production capabilities, especially in critical industries like steel, energy, and food.
Generates Government Revenue – Tariffs provide a source of income for governments, which can be reinvested in public services.
Prevents Dumping – Tariffs discourage foreign companies from flooding the market with artificially cheap goods to destroy domestic competition.
❌❌ Disadvantages of Tariffs
Higher Prices for Consumers – Since imported goods are taxed, businesses pass the extra costs to customers.
Risk of Trade Wars – When one country imposes tariffs, others retaliate, leading to economic conflicts that hurt all parties involved.
Encourages Inefficiency – Without foreign competition, domestic companies may become complacent and innovate less.
Disrupts Global Supply Chains – Many industries rely on international suppliers; tariffs can increase production costs and delays.
❇️ The Future of Tariffs in a Globalized World
As economies become more interconnected, tariffs are often seen as barriers to global trade.
Emerging industries, such as digital services, face new trade policy challenges that traditional tariffs do not cover.
With globalization, many nations favor free trade agreements (FTAs) like USMCA and the EU single market to reduce trade barriers.
Climate-related tariffs, such as carbon border taxes, may become more common as nations try to incentivize environmentally friendly trade practices.
📌 Closing Thoughts
Tariffs remain one of the most powerful - and controversial - tools in economic policy. Like a thermostat for trade, they can be adjusted to protect domestic industries, but risk overheating the economy with unintended consequences.
History shows that while tariffs can provide temporary relief for specific sectors, they often create ripple effects across the entire economy. The steel tariffs of 2018 helped some American mills reopen, but made cars and appliances more expensive for everyone.
Neither free trade nor tariffs are perfect solutions. A balanced approach, where tariffs are selectively used for strategic industries while promoting open markets in others, is often the best path.
Each country must decide based on its economic strengths and priorities. For example, developed nations might push for free trade, while developing nations use tariffs to protect growing industries.
As trade policies continue evolving, understanding tariffs gives citizens and businesses crucial insight into how globalization affects prices, jobs, and economic security. The debate isn't about whether tariffs are "good" or "bad," but rather when and how they should be used strategically.
What are your thoughts on the ongoing U.S. tariff war? Share your opinions in the comments! 📩
SP500 Plunges 8% in a day!! Oversold or more pain ahead?The SP500 has suffered a massive 8% drop, currently trading around 5158 at the moment, after market turmoil triggered by Trump's new tariff war. Panic selling has pushed the 30-minute RSIto an extreme oversold level of around 28, signaling potential short-term exhaustion.
Possible Scenarios:
🔹 Short-Term Bounce? The RSI suggests a possible technical rebound, with key resistance around 5200-5250 if buyers step in. Watch for volume confirmation.
🔹 Further Downside? If panic continues, the next major support lies at 5100, followed by 5000 psychological level, where institutional buyers might defend price.
⚠️ Caution: Markets remain highly volatile! A dead-cat bounce is possible, but uncertainty surrounding tariffs could fuel more downside pressure. Stay sharp!
📊 What’s Your Take? Will SP500 recover or break lower? Drop your thoughts below! 🚀🔥
#SP500 #StockMarketCrash #Tariffs #Trading #TechnicalAnalysis #RSI
Recovery or Pain?Will this be the infliction point or breaking point? Here we have multiple points of importance. Will this be a bounce or a crash?
S&P 500 Crash Idea / Opportunity Cumulation PeriodIf we are lucky, there will be three levels and three opportunities. I am also waiting to see if this really happens and we see a market crash and the SPY go down about 35-40% from its all-time high. We were heavily getting the Tesla options one year prior.
+10% from tomorrow till mid-MaySPX is getting ready to rebound with around 10% till mid-May. Invalidated if breaks below 5400.
Your daily DON'T PANIC reminderHi fellow traders.
This is your daily reminder not to panic. STICK to your strategy.
We're on the elevator down, but WE WILL climb the stairs back up. zoom out on an S&P or Nasdaq chart. STONKS GO UP. It hurts now, but this is also the time to accumulate stocks you have always wanted.
Look for the levels. Don't panic. STICK TO YOUR STRATEGY!
Are These the Three Black Crows Signaling More Pain Ahead? The S&P 500 has just printed three consecutive long-bodied red candles following a brief uptrend. This classic "Three Black Crows" formation could be a powerful bearish reversal signal—one that historically hints at a deeper correction on the horizon.
📊 What does this pattern mean?
Appears after an uptrend or rally.
Consists of 3 bearish candles closing near their lows.
Suggests strong seller control and trend reversal potential.
🔍 Current context:
The S&P is already under heavy pressure from macroeconomic and geopolitical concerns.
This pattern adds further bearish sentiment, especially if we see continued follow-through on volume.
🚨 If confirmed, we could be looking at the continuation of a larger downtrend. But remember: confirmation is key. Watch closely how price reacts in the next 1–2 sessions.
🧠 Do you see this as a real warning—or just a pause before the next leg up?
#SP500 #ThreeBlackCrows #CandlestickPatterns #BearishSignal #TechnicalAnalysis
Big Bear Leg Coming if this is ABC This looks like it might be a big corrective ABC leg inside of a downtrend. While markets have had a very bullish tone to them recently we've not really bounced that much and the daily trend is still down on big swings.
Perhaps the corrective period is over and new bear waves are forming. If so, this should be about the high of them here.
S&P 500 Faces Increased Bearish Pressure as Trade War BeginsThe S&P 500 has formed a downtrend channel following the break below the 5700 support level. Trump's new aggressive tariff policy raised the minimum tariff on China to 54%, while China responded with equally aggressive 34% tariffs. The trade war has now officially begun.
This escalation is clearly negative for the stock market. Recession risks have risen significantly, and it remains uncertain how much the Fed can cut rates while tariff-driven inflationary pressures persist. Rapid rate cuts could help soften the slowdown but may also risk fueling another inflation surge. That would be the more optimistic case for equities. However, the Fed is likely to proceed cautiously, suggesting that bearish pressure could continue for several quarters.
In the short term, the downward trend remains intact. If the S&P 500 breaks the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, it may decline further toward the lower boundary of the new trend channel, where a potential bounce could occur. As long as the trend holds, bears remain in control.
Note: Powell is expected to speak today. His remarks carry even more weight following the tariff moves by both the U.S. and China.
