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USSP500CFD trade ideas

S&P 500 Eyes New Highs: 43 ATHs and CountingTechnical Analysis The price has pushed up as we mentioned yesterday and is still moving toward a new all-time high (ATH). Notably, the S&P 500 has recorded 43 ATHs this year and continues to reach new highs. As long as it trades above 5931, it is likely to reach 6002 before starting a bearish trend. Alternatively, if the price drops from here and closes a 4-hour candle below 5931, it will support a bearish move toward 5891. Key Levels: Pivot Point: 5933 Resistance Levels: 5985, 6002 Support Levels: 5891, 5863, 5815 Trend outlook: Uptrend previous idea:
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by SroshMayi
S&P 500 Index: First Correction Since July 2023I was just looking at NVDA and the market has been bullish forever. A drop is approaching and I wondered, "Will this be a short lived correction or will it turn into a bear-market?" Good question isn't it? The last correction for the SPX happened between July and October 2023, after that, it has been 100% bullish with some retraces lasting a maximum of three weeks. So it is hard to think of a bear-market. From January 2022 through October 2022 the SPX entered a strong correction, a bear-market, it lasted 280 days. There you have it. How would that look like today? Let's see... Ten months would put us at August/September 2025, can you imagine? These markets are super resilient, and with money printing going on over-drive soon, it is possible that we only experience a correction. A correction can last several weeks to a few months maximum. Big correction or small correction, three weeks or ten months, the SPX is bearish and pointing lower in the coming days, weeks and months. Namaste.
SP:SPXShort
by AlanSantana
2
$SPX ANALYSIS, KEY LEVELS & TARGETS for 11.11.24All right. So the implied move over here today is between 5965 and 6030. 30 day average volatility, 5930 to 6060, fix is up right now almost 4% and stupid Willy is showing extreme overbought here 35 EMA is underneath the implied move and don’t forget, we returned to the 35 EMA all the time and we are due to hit that level so that is just underneath the implied move at 5965. There’s nothing else really in today’s trade range but let’s see where we close today. If we close towards the bottom then we’ll be retesting that election gap and remember that island bottom gaps tend to be a battle zone so the level around 5760 would be the next target.
SP:SPXShort
by SPYder_QQQueen_Trading
S&P 500 reversal target - 6151Looking at a potential reversal target for the S&P 500 as we move beyond the election year into 2025. When scanning backwards on the previous high from late 2021, we can see price action clearly retested the speed fib on multiple weeks before a final rejection that induced the mini bear market which ended Oct of '22. Following that same speed fib forward into 2024, we can clearly see price is NOW, once again, retesting this magnetic fib zone. To figure out where this is all going, let's measure from the Jan '22 high into the Oct '22 low. Here, we get a 1.854 and 2.0 fib extension which intersects with the speed fib in question. Making some assumptions that price will AGAIN, range and retest multiple times before resolving, we can overlay "bars pattern" (from Jan '21 HIGH - Oct '22 LOW) and see when and how this could play out. Now, we wait and see how this movie ends! Note: Not trading or investment advice. ENTERTAINMENT ONLY!
OANDA:SPX500USD
by tantamount
The U.S. Election: Why Investor Psychology Outweighs Politics?As the 2024 U.S. presidential election between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris draws to a close, discussions on its potential impact on the stock market are intensifying. The common belief is that elections like these have significant influence on market direction, with some expecting substantial shifts based on which candidate emerges victorious. Yet at Vital Direction, our perspective is that the market’s underlying forces—those stemming from social mood, collective psychology, and well-established cycles—play a far greater role than any singular political event. The Market’s Independence from Political Events There exists a widespread assumption that major political events, such as presidential elections, are central drivers of long-term market trends. This belief, though popular, fails to account for the market’s inherent self-direction. Stock markets don’t respond as simply as a cause-and-effect model would suggest; instead, they operate according to internal patterns and psychological shifts within the investor community. The Elliott Wave Theory offers an invaluable lens into this perspective. Developed as a way to understand market movements, it proposes that markets progress in identifiable cycles driven by waves of investor optimism and pessimism. These waves transcend individual events and reflect broader, longer-term patterns. Whether in response to an election or any other newsworthy event, the market’s primary direction remains bound to these underlying cycles, not to short-lived political fluctuations. Elections: Short-Term Volatility, Not Long-Term Direction The 2024 election will no doubt introduce some degree of short-term volatility. Markets may experience fluctuations in response to immediate reactions, whether from policy expectations or from shifts in investor sentiment. However, such volatility is more indicative of temporary emotional responses than a change in the overall trend. Historically, markets have witnessed reactions to elections, but these are typically fleeting. A notable example is the 2016 election: though it spurred temporary market movement, the longer trend was driven by broader cyclical forces, unaffected by any one political outcome. This view echoes what is outlined in Socionomic theory, which suggests that markets are less about reaction to events and more about reflecting the underlying social mood. This perspective implies that it is not political events but rather the collective psyche of investors that drives market cycles. In other words, while elections can spark volatility, they do not chart the course of long-term market movement. The Role of Investor Psychology and Cycles At Vital Direction, we place considerable emphasis on investor psychology as the core driver of market behaviour. Techniques such as Elliott Wave Theory and technical analysis allow us to understand this psychology in action, mapping market movements as a series of waves that reflect collective emotional shifts. Whether optimism, fear, or greed, these emotions unfold in repeating cycles, showcasing the natural rhythm of the market. Likewise, Socionomics further reinforces the concept that social mood—bullish optimism or bearish fear—shapes markets from the ground up, regardless of political events. By viewing the market through this lens, we see that people’s collective psychology builds self-perpetuating cycles that continue regardless of transient events. This view aligns with the insights of technical analysis, including the application of Fibonacci retracements and Hurst cycles, which help reveal recurring investor cycles. These analytical methods enable us to anticipate market behaviour based not on who wins an election but on how collective sentiment evolves over time. Tools like these reveal that the stock market has its own rhythm, largely impervious to the outcomes of political events. Concluding Thoughts: The Market’s Own Path To conclude, the U.S. presidential election, while undoubtedly an important social and political event, has a limited impact on the stock market’s overall direction. Political events might momentarily capture the headlines and trigger brief volatility, but the primary market trend persists, following its own inherent cycles. Whether Trump or Harris wins, we at Vital Direction expect the market to continue adhering to its established patterns, driven by the deeper forces of investor psychology. For investors, understanding this can be a powerful tool amidst the noise of election speculation. By focusing on the patterns and cycles inherent to investor psychology, traders can engage the market with a clear view that looks beyond short-term fluctuations, aligning instead with the stable, cyclical forces that guide the market’s enduring direction. In short, trust in the cycle, not the headlines. The market’s true course is set not by elections but by the collective sentiment of those who invest in it.
SP:SPXEducation
by VitalDirection
SPX: Presidential elections and FOMCThe US stocks had a relatively mixed week. The S&P 500 started the week with the negative sentiment, around the level of 5.840, and moved in Thursday trading session to the lowest weekly level at 5.705. Still, during Friday the index managed to gain some 0,4%, ending the week at the level of 5.728. The Non-farm payrolls were the major surprise for the markets during the previous week. The US economy added only 12.000 new jobs in October, which was the lowest level since the pandemic. Analysts are noting that such a weak performance is a result of hurricanes and labor strikes, and that the labor market in the US stands on solid grounds. Amazon was one of the companies which was in the spotlight of investors, with a weekly gain of 6,2%, as the company continues to strengthen its cloud and advertising business above market current expectations. Intel was another company which strongly outperformed market forecasts, gaining 7,8% for the week. Regardless of a bumpy start of November, this might continue for the week ahead. Namely, two quite important events for the US are scheduled for the week ahead - on November 5th the US Presidential elections and FOMC rate decision on November 7th. These two events are implying that higher volatility and market nervousness might continue for another week.
SP:SPX
by XBTFX
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Nov 8, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: During the current trading session, the S&P 500 index has exhibited significant strength by successfully filling the projected gap, as detailed in the S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis dated November 1. This upward movement has facilitated a substantial rebound, as the index has retested both the Outer Index Rally level of 5861 and the Key Resistance level of 5865. Furthermore, the index has completed the Outer Index Rally threshold 6000, suggesting a promising potential for additional increases toward Outer Index Rallies at 6123, 6233, and 6418. Nevertheless, it is essential to recognize that achieving the Outer Index Rally 6000 level may prompt a downward price movement towards the Mean Support level of 5929 before progressing into the subsequent phase of the bullish trend
SP:SPX
by TradeSelecter
S&P500 (Bearish Correction Amid Fed impact)Technical Analysis The price has risen approximately 210 pips, as mentioned yesterday. Today, as long as trades remain below 5989, a drop toward 5931 is expected, followed by consolidation between 5931 and 5989 until a breakout. Alternatively, if a 4-hour candle closes above 5989, it would signal bullish momentum with a potential move towards 6021. Key Levels: Pivot Point: 5989 Resistance Levels: 6002, 6021 Support Levels: 5950, 5931, 5891 Trend Outlook: Bearish Correction previous idea:
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by SroshMayi
Market SnapshotA month or so ago we published an idea titled, Election Surprise, that essentially said it does not matter who wins the U.S. election...the market is still setting up for a massive downturn What will be the catalyst? Don't know but if we had to guess it will materialize in the Banking sector Commercial Real Estate bubble finally bursting maybe? Again we don't know or care what causes the downturn..we just know that something is coming and we are preparing accordingly But hey..maybe we are wrong :)
SP:SPX
by Heartbeat_Trading
US500 SMART MONEY PLAY Smart Money Play for US500 The setup suggests a potential for continuation in the primary uptrend but warns of possible near-term exhaustion. This strategy focuses on monitoring support levels during a pullback to position for a high-probability entry in line with the trend. 1. Identify Key Support Levels for Potential Pullback • Daily HVN Nodes: The daily HVN nodes at 5831 and 5710 represent strong support zones. If price retraces to these levels, they are likely to act as points of buying interest, especially if aligned with bullish indicators on lower timeframes. • 4-Hour Ichimoku Conversion Line: Currently, price is testing the 4-hour Ichimoku conversion line. A sustained hold at this level would signal a continuation of the uptrend, while a breakdown could open the door for a deeper pullback. 2. Monitor ADX and DI for Trend Continuation or Exhaustion • Daily ADX: With an ADX of 22 and positive DI above negative DI, the daily trend is bullish but not overly strong, suggesting room for a potential continuation if support holds. • 4-Hour ADX: The 4-hour ADX at 50, with the ADX line well above both +DI and -DI, indicates possible trend exhaustion. This level, combined with bearish divergence on the RSI, suggests that a pullback or consolidation phase is likely before the trend resumes. 3. RSI and MFI as Momentum Indicators • Daily RSI: The daily RSI at 66 remains bullish but could retreat to 50-60 on a pullback while maintaining trend strength. A hold above 50 on the daily RSI would support re-entry at a favorable level. • 4-Hour MFI: With MFI rolling down from 80 to 74, it signals a reduction in buying pressure, consistent with an expected pullback. 4. Short-Term Signals on Lower Timeframes • 2-Hour MACD: The dark red bearish signal on the 2-hour MACD is an early warning for a short-term correction. If MACD starts to turn green after a dip, it could provide an entry signal. • 4-Hour RSI Divergence: Bearish divergence on the 4-hour RSI further supports a potential pullback. Waiting for a correction here before entering would minimize risk. Trade Ideas 1. Pullback Entry for Long Continuation: • Entry: Consider entering long near the HVN nodes at 5831 or 5710 if price stabilizes. Look for bullish signals on the 2-hour or 4-hour MACD and RSI to confirm that buyers are returning. • Stop-Loss: Place stops just below 5710 to account for volatility but avoid exposure if the pullback deepens. • Target: Aim for an initial move back towards the upper Bollinger Band on the daily (around 6000+) or even higher if the trend resumes strongly. 2. Alternative Short on Short-Term Weakness: • Entry: Consider a short position if price fails to hold the 4-hour Ichimoku conversion line, aiming for a target near the daily HVN nodes (5831 or 5710). • Stop-Loss: Tight stop just above the recent high at 5973, minimizing risk. • Target: Look for a retracement to the 5831 node, where support may resume. Summary of Smart Money Play 1. Trend Bias: Bullish overall but with caution for near-term exhaustion. 2. Setup: Wait for pullback confirmation to key support for a low-risk entry. 3. Entry Trigger: Use MACD and RSI on lower timeframes to confirm a resumption of buying pressure on pullbacks. 4. Risk Management: Stops below support for long positions and tight stops above recent highs for shorts, targeting the daily upper Bollinger Band on continuation or HVN nodes on retracement.
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by Shivsaransh1
The Trump Effect: S&P 500 Hits New Highs! What's Next?The market's momentum has taken the S&P 500 to fresh highs, but where do we go from here? 🤔 Here are the key resistance points to watch: 🔹 First hurdle: 2-month resistance at 5975 🔹 Psychological level: 6000, a tougher barrier 🔹 2024 resistance: Around 6070-6090 – likely to be a strong test 🔹 Major milestone: The top of a long-term channel on a logarithmic chart (since 2009), not reached until 6750! Eyes on the charts as we navigate these critical levels. 📊 Disclaimer: The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
CBOE:SPXLong
by The_STA
Is a 5 percent drop in markets on the way?Is a 5 percent drop in markets on the way? Currently, the European and American indices are approaching all-time highs. Right now, the chances of the market losing 5% are much higher than the reverse. One of the main drivers of the rise in U.S. stocks is Nvidia, which recently ranked first as the highest value stock in the world. Nvidia continues to be a dominant force in the technology market. However, investors may not be paying attention to the warning signs: the company recently reported weak guidance for the next quarter and the revenue growth rate is slowing. In addition, the price-earnings ratio is currently at 34, which is extremely high and could indicate a speculative bubble situation. Are the tech giants influencing the market? Let us continue with the example of Apple, one of the biggest players in the technology market. Early reviews for the new I-Phone 16 with Gen AI seem negative, which could lead to a possible failure of the product. At the same time, financial data show a PE ratio of 34 and revenue growth of 0.43 percent year-over-year, which seems unrealistic. These factors combined could be seen as signs of a rapidly expanding bubble. However, among the tech giants, Microsoft has suffered the most significant impact. After losing its investment in OpenAI and facing challenges such as dependence on Nvidia's infrastructure and other artificial intelligence issues, it was recently downgraded to third place. The recent growth of the S&P 500 is largely driven by the Gen AI theme, thanks to the important contribution of mega caps such as Apple, Nvidia and Microsoft. However, this dependence on large companies cannot last: they are overvalued and their growth is slowing. A healthier balance in the index is needed for sustainable growth. Vix and Germany send warning signals The economic situation in Europe is not favorable, as shown by the recent negative unemployment figure in Germany. The German unemployment index measures changes in the number of people out of work in the country. This latest figure shows an upward trend, pointing to a weak labor market that has a negative impact on consumer spending and thus on overall economic growth. Another important index to keep an eye on is the VIX, also known as the “fear index.” This volatility index is calculated using option prices on the S&P 500. When investors begin to worry about a possible stock market crash, they buy put options to protect themselves. This increases the demand for and prices of put options, and thus the VIX. In general, when uncertainty is low, the VIX stays below 15, indicating a macroeconomically stable bullish market. However, at times of increased uncertainty or fear of a recession, the VIX rises above 20. This was evident during the market's most critical periods in 2000, 2008, and 2020. Attention must be paid to the situation in the Middle East, as there are many unknowns. The worst case scenario is that Israel could attack Iran's energy infrastructure. This could lead to Iran retaliating by striking Israel's energy infrastructure and perhaps those of other oil-producing countries in the region. In either case, there would be a sharp rise in oil prices and the risk of a possible global recession, as happened in 1973. In summary, I expect a modest market decline of about 5 percent in November, followed by new highs in December thanks to the markets' traditional Christmas rally. If you would like to be notified whenever I post a new article, just click on “FOLLOW” above. Also, if you would like to elaborate on a particular topic or need some advice, please comment below the article and I will be happy to help.
SP:SPX
by Antonio_Ferlito