SPX500 Will Fall! SPX500 made a swift
Bullish recovery from the
Lows but the Indice is now
Retesting a horizontal
Resistance level of 5555.01 we will be
Expecting a local
Bearish correction!
USSP500CFD trade ideas
S&P500 Short Setup with a Quick Long OpportunityThe S&P500 is approaching red line resistance, offering potential short opportunities. For those looking to flip the script, a quick long trade could be on the table after a retest of the green line support. Timing will be key here—watch for reactions at these crucial levels.
Stay tuned for more chart insights, and follow for updates as the price action unfolds!
*Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always trade responsibly!*
Detailed version of SPX stages as per the Minksy model. The popularity of indices have come a long way over the last decades.
Back when Bogle first marketed and popularised the idea, it was deemed to be "Un-American". Randomly allocating value to things based on their placing in an index. That's basically communism. That's the kinda thing that was being said back in the day. But Bogle persisted and the indices uptrended and here we are.
We now live in an age where indices are essentially considered to be magic. Can't go wrong as long as you're in it for the long term. Millions of people either choose to or are obligated to auto-invest into these indices on a monthly basis. It's gotten to a stage where society is heavily influenced by what these indices do.
Have the indices gotten safer as time has went on? Probably not. The weighted indices have had the default effect of allocating the most capital to the biggest stocks and facilitated the concertation of capital into these stocks - a form of malinvestment. "Removing price discovery" - as many have lamented in the recent years.
If it happened to be the whole idea of passive investing fit inside of the Minsky model - we'd now be in the extremely advanced stages of it.
S&P 500 Nearing Pattern TargetThe S&P 500 fell sharply on Tuesday, shedding more than -2.0%. This completed a double-top pattern at 5,651 (just shy of all-time highs of 5,669) and positioned the Index within striking distance of the pattern’s take-profit objective at 5,472, which could serve as support. Complementing this level is the 50-day simple moving average at 5,505 and support at 5,488.
As a result, traders will likely monitor support between 5,472 and 5,505.
FED Rate Cut Sept. 19: Market ImplicationsFed expected to cut rates ~0.5% on Sept. 19
Short-term outlook:
• Likely market correction before/during the event
• "Sell the news" expected
• Traders may capitalize on retail investors' optimism around the FED rate cut
Why? Historical patterns show corrections often precede rate cuts. this time might be no exception.
FED rate cut market dynamics:
• Institutional investors take profits around the rate cut
• Potential liquidity squeeze as positions unwind
• Volatility and TVC:VIX will increase
Long-term:
• Rate cuts generally bullish over time
• Lower rates can stimulate economic growth
• But full effects may take months to materialize
Strategic considerations:
• Market dip can be a buying opportunities
• Consider index ETFs like SP:SPX and NASDAQ:QQQ and stocks with fundamentals or even Bitcoin. Personally, I will also add the leveraged ETFs AMEX:SSO and AMEX:QLD
• Consider dollar-cost averaging during volatility
Markets are complex. This analysis isn't financial advice. Always do thorough research and consider your risk tolerance.
short term longsWe are expecting price to rally to the our supply zone located ath the highs of our higher time frames, this is a high risk high reward trade as it is taking during the selling pressure found on the LFT's
Very Important 2 Days ... Hi Everybody
We probably gonna see loads of volatility because of This employment Data ahead of us that volatility wave is gonna help to find market direction first, i would not jump into trade when things not clear PATIENCE is very important...!
Remember As a Trader we do not predict the future.!
I can still share my ideas in mean time but i would never stay in trade very long because we are not in trading market. There is loads of divergence market idea ( Bulls -Bears ) on the market this is why market is not trending ...
Best of Luck
Regards
$SPX Tomorrow's Trading Range in SPX for Sept 5 2024Tomorrow's Trading range is so interesting!! Welcome back, volatility... welcome back!!
Bearish divergence SP500 weeklyAs you can see there is a bearish divergence between SP500 and both RSI and MACD on the weekly chart.
It may take some time, but normally it doesn't look good for the stock market.
You Are a Puppet - How The Elite is Manipulating the MarketsWelcome back Future Demons
Let me make it very clear. I’m here to help you become a better trader, and make money. I’m not a fan of Wall Street, the Elite, the big asset management companies like BlackRock, Vanguard who own most of the biggest companies in the world.
They are known for manipulating the markets, to bait you in, and take advantage of you. They are ruthless. They have secret collabs with journalists around the world from big mainstream media, who will trick you with clickbait articles. But there is way more..
Also there is a big misconception, that the big American asset management companies only hold Western stocks.
No, my friend. They hold Russian and Chinese stocks as well. They try to disguise it of course via shadow companies and banks.
The Elite in USA, Europe, Russia and China are all "working together", and all have part in the world’s biggest companies and share the same goal. More money and more power.
This is NOT a war between sides - East vs West - as they will portrait it in the mainstream media. They have and will continue to brainwash you to believe in this narrative, while they are making money, and the people are dying in war.
This is in reality a war between up and down. The elite vs the people.
Historically it has always been like that. The church vs the illiterate people. The Kingdom vs the peasents.
And there is no difference this time.
——
Why am I telling you this?
We haven’t seen a bear market in 15 years, which is unheard of. We have been very close many times, but suddenly came COVID, which made the markets blossom again. The small businesses went bankrupt, while the giants made money again.
After some time we saw a decline again. Russia invaded Ukraine, and USA (NATO), didn’t try to stop the war. They rejected any kind of diplomatic negotiations.
Why? Obviously because they knew, that especially a proxy-war is good for the markets. All the weapons US has sold to Ukraine, made the markets recover.
Then again very conveniently Israel had an excuse to use their power against Palestine, which meant more war-money, and again the market managed to recover.
The recent little trick is now the 600,000 polio-vaccines UN will give to the Palestinian kids, who are suffering in Gaza. There is catch though, that many is not aware of.
The polio vaccine is made by a French company Sanofi. It only takes a Google search or 2 to find out, who the biggest investor is: Dodge Cox, owned by Johnson, Wells Fargo, Alphabet (Google), Microsoft and more.
Last but not least, let me also state, that the AI hype lately has been the main reason the markets has increased.
But with this post I just want to make it clear, that the Elite, the Deep State, whatever you want to call them, will do whatever it takes to make money. And they are ruthless.
What to do now?
If you are out of the markets, stay out! If you are in the markets secure profit. We have no idea how high we will go, but there is no doubt imo, that this is a huge bubble, and we will most likely soon go into a Depression like we did 100 years ago in the 1930s.
War has historically always been the last instrument before a crash.
Kind Regards
LaPlaces Demon
PS. I know that some people might disagree with my analysis, which is totally ok. What I have learnt the last 10 years trading is to follow the money. And market psychology is my biggest strength.
Inside candle but not redI posted that we could have a potential red inside candle by the end of the month. In this case it was an inside candle but was green which is just consolidation. Lets see how it goes this month. Has to close red inside to be a reversal.
September Weakness and Potential DeclineSeptember Weakness and Potential Decline
The chart clearly shows a historical pattern of weakness in September for the S&P 500 index. Based on this seasonal trend, there's a strong possibility that the index will continue to decline throughout the month.
Historical September Performance
Looking at the seasonality data at the bottom of the chart, we can see that September has consistently been a challenging month for the S&P 500:
The average September performance over the years shown is -1.83%
In recent years (2020-2023), September returns have been negative, ranging from -4.76% to -9.34%
Current Market Situation
The chart indicates that the index has already begun to show signs of weakness:
There's a visible downward trend in the most recent candlesticks
A red arrow pointing downwards suggests a bearish outlook
Projected Decline
Given the historical data and current market conditions, it's reasonable to expect:
A continued downward trajectory throughout September
A potential decline that could mirror the average September performance of -1.83%, or possibly more severe, considering recent years' trends
Consistency of Decline
The consistency of the decline may follow the pattern observed in previous years:
A steady, gradual decrease rather than sharp drops
Possible short-term fluctuations, but maintaining an overall downward trend
It's important to note that while historical patterns and current indicators suggest a bearish outlook for September, market conditions can change rapidly due to various economic and geopolitical factors. Traders should always consider multiple data points and remain vigilant to potential market shifts.
Bear Pressure Remains (Key Levels to Watch - SPX, NDX)Tuesday - Bear Candle breaking support
Wednesday - weak re-test of the support (now becoming resistance)
Bearish pressure remains firm with key levels lower on the major indexes.
Near-term bearish until price proves otherwise. Taking stops, protecting profits and managing hedges.
JPY "unwinding" is also back on the radar. I'll be watching the JPY strength and Nikkei correlation. I still hold long FXY through 2026 (call options)
Thanks for watching!!!
S&p 500 for shortTwo equal highs on the weekly time frame. We expect a sell to the downside to the weekly trendline.
SPX Analysis for Today: What’s Next After Yesterday’s Big Drop?Wow! Yesterday was brutal for us all on SPX with a major bearish move that probably left a lot of traders scratching their heads. So, what’s the game plan for today? Let’s break it down.
1. Technical Picture After the Drop
Yesterday’s sell-off took SPX to key levels, and now we’re sitting in some interesting territory. The 5550-5570 range is what we’re watching closely—this could act as support, but if it cracks, we might be heading lower, potentially toward 5500.
On the flip side, if buyers step in, we could see a bounce back toward 5550, which was previous support but might now act as resistance. Traders should keep an eye on whether we break out of that range or get rejected.
2. The News That Matters
A lot of today’s action depends on what’s going on in the broader world. Are we getting any new data on inflation or jobs? If inflation numbers come in hot, the market could get nervous again, anticipating more rate hikes from the Fed. But if the data is lighter, we might get a relief rally after yesterday’s beatdown.
Also, keep an eye on any big headlines—geopolitical tension, tech earnings, or even Fed commentary. All of these could be wildcards that drive sentiment today.
3. Sentiment Check
We’ve got VIX (the fear gauge) pretty elevated right now, so people are still pretty nervous. Watch for whether that calms down today—if it does, we might get some relief in SPX. But if VIX stays high or climbs further, brace yourselves for more volatility.
The Bottom Line:
If today’s news stokes more fear, we could see another push lower. But if the market takes a breather, we might get a short-term bounce. Either way, buckle up—it’s going to be another interesting session!
Fed Rate Cut, Ultra Bullish? Yes But...Are we there yet?
Positive news, positive developments, a bullish market... The FED will cut rates soon, is this an ultra-bullish development for the stocks and Cryptocurrency market?
The market moves in cycles and grows with or without the FED.
In 2023 the FED was raising rates and the stocks and Cryptocurrency market experienced growth the entire year.
Long-term, cuts to the FED rates is super bullish but watch-out for the short-term.
Here is how it works:
👉 Since the FED is going to cut rates soon, traders and market participants take profits before/during the event. They capitalize on the fact that the general populace see this as a bullish development (thanks to the media which is already in a campaign to mislead everybody) and use it to sell at high prices. There is always a major crash/correction before the change in FED policies takes place.
I repeat, the financial markets tend to crash before/during the event.
So, instead of ultra-bullish, expect a major crash all across. After the crash, we will have bullish for sure.
Just remember, all the markets were growing when the rates were the highest; Bitcoin grew from November 2022 through March 2024; the stock market is at all-time highs and has been growing for years with interest rates at their highest.
When the cuts become real, this will be a major bearish event.
Just in case you are reading the news, because they are telling it in reverse.
Protect your capital. Stay safe.
Namaste.
SPX500 SELLSLooks like further pressure sell offs this week. Entered on pull back to further anticipate price to drive down
Tech sell-off dents risk appetite US stock indices marked the end of summer and the first full trading session of September by closing sharply lower yesterday. All the majors came under sustained selling pressure, with the biggest losses suffered by tech. The NASDAQ 100 fell 3.3%, closely followed by mid-caps, with the Russell 2000 shedding 3.1%. Market darling NVIDIA slumped 9.5%, taking its total decline from its all-time high back in June to 23.3%. Have we seen peak-NVIDIA, or is this simply a healthy correction? Much depends on growth in generative AI, along with the ability of other chip makers to offer up some competition. Stock indices closed near their lows last night, not helped by yesterday’s ISM Manufacturing PMI, which, while up on last month’s reading, was below expectations, and remains firmly in contraction territory. The selling has continued this morning with the S&P 500 briefly breaking back below 5,500. Last week, the index came frustratingly close to taking out its record high of 5,670 from mid-July, shortly before the stock market plunge from a month ago. That sell-off was triggered by the unwinding of the Japanese yen carry-trade, followed by an unexpectedly weak US Non-Farm Payroll number. The latter suggested that the US economy may be slowing faster than anticipated, just after a Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting left the key Fed Funds rate unchanged. Fast forward a month and equity markets had recovered most of their early August losses, until yesterday. And this Friday sees the latest update on Non-Farm Payrolls, with the next Fed rate decision to come less than a fortnight later. There is some nervousness out there as investors prepare for the payroll release. But before that, we have the latest JOLTS Job Openings update this afternoon, with weekly Unemployment Claims and the monthly ADP report tomorrow. Further weakness in the labour market won’t raise the probabilities of a rate cut this month, as that already stands at 100%. But it could shift the dial as far as expectations for 25 or 50 basis points is concerned. If this week brings evidence of a sharp slowdown in the labour market, then that will increase the probability of a 50 basis points cut. While the market has been pricing in aggressive rate cuts since last October, they may not react favourably to a large reduction, as this could signal problems for the US economy going forward.
US500: Bears Are Taking Control of Prices - Harmonic PatternUS500: Bears Are Taking Control of Prices - Harmonic Pattern
The US500 recently tested its all-time high zone, last reached on July 15, 2024.
The initial price reaction was notably strong and bearish, increasing the likelihood of a more significant bearish movement.
What’s next?
You can watch the analysis for further details
Thank you:)
#S&P500 $GSPC Falls 2.12% to 5528.93The Magnificent Seven tech stocks are no longer outperforming the rest of the 493 stocks in the S&P500. Shares in Nvidia plunged nearly 10% on the first trading day after the Labour Day weekend holiday wiping nearly 300 billion dollars off the firm’s value in the largest single-day value drop in US stock market history.
US stock futures (#DJI , #IXIC, #GSPC) edge lower on Tuesday. Markets are looking ahead to the avalanche of economic data due out this week, including August's jobs report this Friday, September 6.
Crucial jobs report kicks off a new month:
The August jobs report, due out on Friday, will headline economic releases in the week ahead as investors look to see whether the signs of slowing in the July jobs report were overstated or an early warning of a broader slowdown.
Updates on job openings and private wage growth are also on the schedule, as well as activity checks from the services and manufacturing sectors.
(The S&P hadn't cleared the July high - trading in a narrow range - but this changed today with an clear undercut of this range, and a close at converged 20-day and 50-day MAs support. It would be a good time for a bounce, particularly if there is a bullish candlestick like a dragonfly doji or bullis hammer at these moving averages. Technicals are net bullish).
