possible C wave After the president started speaking we had a stop run spike and then reversal - often this means a C wave is beginning. While I don't think it would crash, the market may get to under 5300 by Friday if it doesn't recover overnight.
USSP500CFD trade ideas
pre market thoughtsA small bounce at open is expected but lower into the rest of the day to complete the pattern is likely as of now.
Cycles and PatternsThe pattern seems to be a WXY (abc X abc) I expect a low Monday with a good bull trapping bounce, but then a lower low at the end of the week.
2pm updateqqq has filled it's gap, spy hasn't Some megacaps are at strong support, where usually buyers would step in. No guarantee this reverses. Monday may be a flush to 535 on SPY
S&P 500 Struggling Ahead of Key Economic ReportsThe S&P 500 is showing signs of weakness as it approaches a critical juncture ahead of tomorrow’s economic reports. After a sharp V-shaped recovery, the index is now facing resistance and struggling to maintain upward momentum. If key support levels fail to hold, we could see further downside in the coming sessions.
Key Levels to Watch:
5,700 - 5,720: A significant resistance zone where recent rallies have stalled. A break above this level could signal renewed bullish momentum.
5,650 - 5,670: A minor support area that previously acted as a pivot. Losing this level could increase selling pressure.
5,520 - 5,504: A major support zone that must hold to prevent further downside. If broken, it could trigger a larger sell-off.
5,350 - 5,400: A potential next area of support if the index continues to slide. This level aligns with previous consolidation zones.
4,790 - 4,800: A worst-case scenario target if market sentiment deteriorates significantly.
Technical Breakdown:
The current price action suggests a potential reversal if support levels do not hold. The index has failed to reclaim key resistance and is now at risk of breaking down further. Volume has increased during recent selling, indicating stronger downside pressure.
The next move will likely be dictated by tomorrow’s reports. If economic data comes in weaker than expected, it could fuel concerns of a slowdown, leading to further selling. Conversely, stronger-than-expected data may provide temporary relief, but resistance levels still need to be reclaimed for the uptrend to resume.
Market Sentiment and Strategy:
A break below 5,504 could trigger a wave of selling, making downside targets more likely.
If support holds and we see a strong bounce, it could offer a short-term buying opportunity.
Given increased volatility, traders should be cautious and monitor key levels closely.
With economic data on the horizon, the S&P 500 is at a critical decision point. The next 24-48 hours will determine whether the recent recovery holds or if further downside is ahead.
SPX developing a wedge similar to 2022As I write this futures are sharply down to 5440 and ViX is at 40. I expect to see a short technical bounce to about 5550, being at major trendline. The wedge formation is similar to 2022. A breakout from Wedge would be sharp either way. If it holds at this level for a couple of weeks then I expect to see a bounce to 5775.I had said earlier in my vix analysis we are in 2022 mode.
Market could see a relief rally only to realise that there are still many unknowns.
The impact on labour market due to immigration policies, retaliation of other countries and negotiation results thereof, impact on consumer sentiments and extent of inflations due to tariff. Weakening of US dollar will only add to inflation pressure. Trump has only accelerated BRICS agenda of moving away from USD
Citadel,Millennium and many other hedge fund are having liquidity problems and FED is been asked to setup a bailout fund for these crooks. They are the highest leveraged entities. A weaker market will precipitate another financial crisis. So far the financial sector hasn't been devalued liketh tech and semi's. I think their turn will come once the market have finished dealing with tech valuations. Once market gets this, it will see a sharp selloff, which is better than slow grind down over months as far as I am concerned
When trump says, he doesn't care about the stock market, I think he knows it is overvalued, just like Warren Buffet did last year and sold off most his positions and now sitting on largest cash in history, waiting for it to come to his level of expectation which to to my mind cant be just 10%
bat rather like 30% write off in the en, to entice savvy investors like Buffet and Michael Burry to re-enter and clean out the garbage investors like the hedge funds
$SPX BOOOM Perfectly Nailed the Bottom in last nights video
5505/5485 Bull put spreads were the money play today on that drop. And of course that would have been the place to go long on the day.
new indicator using options data ++ some project i'm working on.
# Analysis of the S&P 500 Trading Dashboard Data
I'll explain the key data elements used in this technical analysis dashboard and how they contribute to the trading conclusions.
## Key Price Levels and Their Significance
The dashboard identifies several critical price levels for the S&P 500:
- **Max Pain ($5,785)**: This represents the price level where options writers would experience the least financial pain (i.e., where the fewest options contracts would be in-the-money). The distance from the current price ($5,557.41) to max pain suggests significant upside resistance.
- **Resistance Levels ($5,700 and $5,650)**: These represent areas where selling pressure is expected to increase. The $5,700 level is backed by data showing 13,877 call option contracts at this strike, creating a "wall" of resistance.
- **Short Entry Zone ($5,595)**: This level was previously support that has been broken, making it a high-probability entry zone for short positions following the principle that broken support becomes resistance.
- **Battle Zone ($5,550)**: An area with heavy options activity on both sides (puts and calls), indicating potential price volatility and uncertainty.
- **Critical Support ($5,500)**: A psychologically important round number that also represents a significant technical level.
- **Target Levels ($5,450 and $5,400)**: Projected price targets for short positions based on previous support levels and technical measurements.
## Options Market Data
Two key options metrics are used to inform the analysis:
1. **Put/Call Ratio (1.80)**: This is significantly elevated above the typical range of 0.7-1.2, indicating:
- Unusually bearish sentiment
- Hedging activity by institutional investors
- Potential for a contrarian bounce if it exceeds 2.0
The high ratio suggests market participants are purchasing put options for downside protection at an elevated rate compared to call options, confirming bearish positioning.
2. **Gamma Exposure (-$17.37 Billion)**: This negative value indicates:
- Market makers are net short gamma
- They must sell more futures as prices fall to maintain delta hedges
- This creates a self-reinforcing downward spiral effect
Gamma exposure represents the rate of change in delta (directional exposure) for options market makers. The large negative value suggests that downward price movement will accelerate as market makers must sell more futures to remain hedged, creating a "cascade effect" amplifying price movement.
## Technical Indicators and Their Interpretation
The dashboard incorporates several technical analysis components:
### Price Action & Moving Averages
The analysis indicates price is trading below all major moving averages (20/50/100/200 EMAs), a classic sign of bearish momentum across timeframes. When price trades below all these moving averages in sequence, it creates what traders call "bearish alignment," a strong confirmation of downtrend.
### Momentum Indicators
- **RSI (Below 30)**: Indicates oversold conditions but in a strong downtrend, oversold conditions can persist. The analysis correctly warns against fighting the trend despite the oversold reading.
- **MACD (Below signal line)**: Confirms negative momentum is in place, suggesting continued downward pressure.
- **ACWF (Negative)**: A specialized momentum indicator showing continued bearish pressure.
### Volume Analysis
- **On-Balance Volume (Declining)**: Indicates more volume on down days than up days, suggesting distribution (selling pressure).
- **Volume on Down Bars (Increasing)**: Higher volume on declining price moves is a classic sign of seller control and distribution.
### Chart Patterns
- **Head & Shoulders Pattern (Completed)**: A reversal pattern that typically projects further downside after completion.
- **Elliott Wave Count (Wave 3)**: Wave 3 is typically the strongest and longest wave in Elliott Wave theory, suggesting significant continuation of the downtrend.
## Volatility Assessment
The ATR (Average True Range) values of 9.18-98.75 indicate elevated and increasing volatility, which informs the risk management recommendations:
- Reduce position size
- Use wider stop losses
- Expect larger price swings
This is prudent risk management in high-volatility environments, as normal position sizing could lead to premature stopouts due to wider price swings.
## Trading Recommendation Logic
The primary strategy (65% probability) of continued downside is based on the confluence of:
1. Bearish technical indicators across multiple timeframes
2. Negative gamma exposure creating a self-reinforcing downward spiral
3. Broken support levels and completed bearish chart patterns
4. Wave 3 Elliott Wave structure which typically has the strongest momentum
The strategy recommends:
- Entry at $5,590-5,600 (former support, now resistance)
- Stop loss above $5,625 (limiting risk to approximately 30 points)
- Targets at key support levels: $5,500, $5,450, and $5,400
- Reduced position size due to high volatility
The alternative strategy (35% probability) acknowledges the potential for a reversal at the $5,500 psychological support level, but only with confirmation signals like volume decline and stabilization patterns.
## Educational Elements
The dashboard incorporates several educational elements:
1. **Elliott Wave Theory**: The identification of Wave 3 of a 5-wave downtrend sequence suggests the current move is likely the strongest part of the larger bearish structure.
2. **Options Market Mechanics**: Explanation of how negative gamma exposure creates a self-reinforcing price action effect as market makers hedge their positions.
3. **Technical Analysis Patterns**: Clear labeling of patterns like the Head & Shoulders and broken uptrend line, along with their implications.
4. **Risk Management**: Specific recommendations for position sizing and stop placement in a high-volatility environment.
This analysis combines price action, options market data, technical indicators, volume analysis, and chart patterns to create a comprehensive trading approach with specific entry, exit, and risk management parameters.
SPX500 Technical Analysis🔹 Trend Overview:
SPX500 has been in a strong downtrend, and the price has already broken the 5,599.30 support level, confirming further bearish momentum. The next key support to watch is 5,506.40 (2025 lowest point).
🔹 Key Levels:
📈 Resistance: 5,599.30 (now turned resistance), 5,679.90
📉 Support: 5,506.40 – If broken, the sell-off could accelerate further.
🔹 Market Structure:
⚠️ Bearish scenario: Since 5,599.30 has already been broken, the price is likely to continue down to 5,506.40. A break below this level could push the market into new 2025 lows.
🚀 Bullish scenario: If the market pulls back above 5,599.30 and reclaims it as support, a temporary bounce to 5,679.90 could occur.
📌 Risk Management:
-Wait for price action confirmation before entering new positions.
-Monitor for potential retests of broken levels.
Bullish Entry Spotted – Now We Wait...Bullish Entry Spotted – Now We Wait... | SPX Analysis 28 Mar 2025
Imagine the market dressed like Jack Nicholson in One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest—slack-jawed, glassy-eyed, and strapped into a straightjacket made of indecision. That’s been the vibe all week. SPX continues to shuffle back and forth around 5700 like it's lost its meds and forgot where it was going. But if you’ve been following the plan, none of this should be surprising.
We mapped it out on Monday, discussed it live in our Fast Forward mentorship call, and here we are watching it all play out with popcorn in hand. Today’s action may seem like “not much ado about anything,” but if you know what to look for… there’s gold in this grind.
---
The end of March has the feel of a market that’s had one too many – not enough to fall over, but just enough to slur its way through price action.
All week we’ve been dancing around the 5700 level – and for good reason. It’s acting as a triple threat:
The GEX Flip Point
The prior range high
And now, the Bollinger Bands have closed in to confirm this as a possible launch (or rejection) zone.
Add in the emergence of a pinch point, and what we’ve got is a market that’s coiling like a spring… but refusing to actually bounce.
📈 Bullish Swing Activated:
During Monday’s Fast Forward group session, we mapped out a key level to watch for pulse bars. Lo and behold, the market obliged. I entered a bullish swing trade after seeing those bars fire right at the expected spot. No surprises, no panic – just execution.
🐻 Bear Swing Trigger Set:
If the market does decide to do a dramatic nosedive, I’ve marked 5675 as my bear/hedge trigger – just under Thursday’s lows. Until then, it’s a game of “wait, watch, and get ready to stack the next trade.”
💤 Nothing Much? Still Profitable:
Look, I get it – this week’s been slower than a BBC period drama. But just because things move at glacial speed doesn’t mean there’s nothing to do. As always, it’s about planning the trade, then trading the plan – not reacting to every twitch like a caffeinated squirrel.
And if you’re wondering how the market feels…
Let’s just say the “moves” this week have been scratchier than usual, so I’ll be looking for a special cream over the weekend.
---
The first “stock ticker” was powered by telegraph wires and clock springs. It was invented in 1867 by Edward Calahan… who was just 22 years old at the time.
Before computers, before real-time data feeds, and way before Robinhood traders turned market moves into meme fodder – we had the ticker tape. Edward Calahan, a young telegraph operator, created the first stock ticker machine using the same tech that powered telegrams. It printed stock prices on a long ribbon of paper, allowing traders to see “live” quotes for the first time.
This primitive marvel revolutionised Wall Street – traders no longer had to wait hours (or days) for price updates. And now here we are, trading from our phones while sipping lattes and watching pulse bars ping in real-time. Technology, eh?
--
Happy trading,
Phil
Less Brain, More Gain
…and may your trades be smoother than a cashmere codpiece
p.s. Ready to stop scratching your head and start stacking profits?
If you want to trade with clarity – not confusion – then it’s time to get serious about structure.
🔥 Join the Fast Forward Mentorship – trade live, twice a week, with me and the crew. PLUS Monthly on-demand 1-2-1's
📺 Or watch the free training to see the SPX Income System in action.
No fluff. Just profits, pulse bars, and patterns that actually work.
S&POne last trade for the day, same as NAS100 this pair just swept sellers and went for buyers if this is an inverted sell we'll move with it
Trade War PerspectiveSure, tune in to your favorite youtube finance doomer or the news, and it will sound like the end of the world has arrived.
I personally feel like this tariff crisis is cover to air out all the dirty laundry that's been hidden the last few years. The AI bubble, the stimmy repayment, the imaginary gold, the "forgot how to grow economy" (credit that last one to Eurodollar University), etc etc.
Take a look at this chart. If this is "the end" we have BARELY begun the descent. These types of corrections happen routinely. The point is, don't panic. STICK TO YOUR STRATEGY and don't get emotional.
Good luck out there. Don't get flushed down the tariff toilet.
S&P 500 Wave Analysis – 1 April 2025
- S&P 500 reversed from support area
- Likely to rise to resistance level 5700.00
S&P 500 index recently reversed from the support area located between the support level 5500.00 (low of the previous wave (A)), lower daily Bollinger Band and the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the uptrend from August.
The downward reversal from this support area stopped the earlier short-term impulse wave 1 of the downward impulse sequence (C) from the end of March.
Given the improving sentiment across the equity markets and the strength of the support level 5500.00, S&P 500 index can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 5700.00.
0 DTE Call Spread - SPX0 DTE Call Spread
-5755 +5760
4.48% gain on cap invested
Started at 0.5 Delta
S&P500 BuysI've set a buy limit on this indice based on the ICT concept the sell to buy model mixed with the MMBM
SPX500 H4 | Bullish uptrend to extend further?SPX500 is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 5,704.90 which is a pullback support.
Stop loss is at 5,590.00 which is a level that lies underneath an overlap support and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit is at 5,848.75 which is an overlap resistance that aligns close to the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement.
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Nikkei, S&P500, Nasdaq, Hang Seng Short: Educational UpdateThis is really an extra video that I made because I see some educational value. I use Nikkei 225 to show repeating of patterns and the fractal nature of the market, S&P and Nasdaq to demonstrate the usage of Fibonacci levels and study of historical support and resistance, and finally Hang Seng to discuss on placing stop losses and how noise in lower time frames may require us to ignore certain "unclean" waves.
Overall, I still put this idea as a short because all the indices used are still short ideas in my opinion.
Good luck!
S&P 500 Index(USA) AnalysisI have analyze S&P500 index from USA market. And it is looking weak. I have used various technique to analyze it and then reached conclusion for this target. Stop loss is 5775. Target is given as Apple below.
Midpoint Gap Theory 3/26/2025Start with the assumption we hit 6165 on 3/31/2025.
Continue with assumption that tomorrow we gap up.
The middle of that gap is the middle of the entire move.
Hence the target set.
[W] SP500 - 24.3.2025This has been an unusually disturbing prediction that I have ever made, and yet so long expected. It's also probably for the first time, I do it on a weekly chart! The huge question mark here, is how FED will react to stagflation turning into a recession, and to recession with a looming threat to progress further. At some point, they might be tempted to act with low rate and EQ, which will further increase already high Gini index and might eventually cause defaults on loans and mortages. Thus, causing a crisis not seen since 2008. The current president Donald Trump might want to distract from the increasingly worsening domestic situation by seeking and external (and internal) enemy, further strengthening his grip on power. While the entire situation might provide a temporary boost to the defense sector alongside with utilities, foreign capital and trade will likely diminish. Unlike the 2008 crisis that was caused predominantly by internal factors, this case might be marked by geopolitical isolation which threatens to leave a much deeper scar.
S&P nearing the 38% retracement and flag top! Intraday Update: The S&P futures are up today following possible tariff news being factored in from some weekend headlines about "targeted reciprocal tariffs" for April 2nd, which is allowing for the S&P to near the 38% retracement which would be the top of the beer flag pattern and setup.
SPX Death Cross Late April?If you look at the 200 and 50 MA we can see they will be converging in late April. If there is a relief rally, it will most likely top out around the 100 MA level. Either way it is not looking good right now.
