COCOA $11,000 next week, $12,656 by July.US Cocoa - Cash forum
COCOA $11,000 next week, $12,656 by July.COCOA Spot cocoa dropped below -2.53% past $9,504 on June 2nd, but deferred contracts rose:• July ‘25 (CCN25): +230 to $9,704
• Sep ‘25 (CCU25): +195 to $9,082
• Dec ‘25 (CCZ25): +161 to $8,451
The shift back into contango after weeks of backwardation is key, as it signals that institutions are not done accumulating.
We See:
– Short term selling pressure is targeting front-months (spec liquidations, margin calls, or inventory based fear).
– Institutions are quietly rolling into mid to long-dated contracts which is accumulation behavior.
Open Interest confirms it:
– July ‘25: 34,417
– Sept ‘25: 26,501
This is where the actual battle is. Not in the front-month flush noise but in Q3/Q4.
As long as CCN25 holds above $9,400, our long thesis remains intact. Shakeouts and whipsaws like we saw on June 2nd and today are to be expected.
June 13 and June 27 remain the key directional catalyst dates before July–September weather risk kicks in and the war begins.
COCOA Every day, the world is getting poorer. Look in the stores what is done with the chocolate that is no longer bought. Easter eggs and bunnies are still on sale at a reduced price because people no longer buy chocolate, especially now in the warm season... In the summer, fruits will be in power! I predict COCOA to go downhill, below 4k. God bless you all!COCOA Equaterra ResearchCOT reports are out. (Click Here)
Week 22 (May 27, 2025)
After we processed over 2000+ pages of COT data, the latest Commitments of Traders confirms what we suspected: this pullback wasn’t a sign of bearish momentum—it was a calculated pause.
Commercials reduced both long and short positions by exactly 2,375 contracts. That kind of perfect symmetry is extremely structural. It signals neutral rebalancing, likely tied to contract rollovers or delivery-cycle positioning, meaning they’re not exiting, they’re holding the range.
Managed Money trimmed exposure modestly—longs down 1,432, shorts down 340, net long interest down 1,092. This follows last week’s $600 rally into a pull back and reflects profit-taking, not trend rejection. Total open interest only dipped 1.5%, suggesting this is controlled rotation, not liquidation.
Other large traders also trimmed risk across the board, and retail participation increased slightly on both sides—indicating indecision. Meanwhile, index fund positions remained unchanged, and options activity stayed flat. No heavy re-hedging. No structural change.
We noticed the matching -2,375 contract symmetry in commercial long and short reductions as one of the clearest rollover or delivery-period rebalancing signals possible. In the current context, it suggests no structural bearish shift, a market pausing to clear exposure before reaccumulating, and clear signs of positioning prep into June—especially now that May options have expired.
All signs point to consolidation and preparation. Volatility is likely early in the week, but June remains a bullish window. Institutions aren’t backing out yet—they’re reloading.
Louis Rain
CEO, Equaterra Research
Disclaimer:
The content shared here is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as financial advice, investment recommendations, or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
COCOA Cocoa’s 5% Dip Looks Like a Final Institutional ShakeoutThere’s been no real catalyst for cocoa’s sharp 5% drop — which makes it look like a textbook flush by institutions to settle May put options in the money.
Big money was content building exposure above $10K for weeks. But to profit from cheaper puts, they needed a fast move under $10K. That’s what this week looks like: a shakeout for premium collection, not a change in trend.
From April 29 to May 20, COT data shows three straight weeks of rising fund longs, with only a slight trim on May 6. If Friday’s COT shows another increase, it’ll confirm the funds dumped just enough to scare retail — and are now reloading.
June 1st brings margin requirement cuts for many brokers, which could fuel retail re-entry. If the COT aligns with that, we may see the next leg up kick off by Monday or Tuesday — unless weather flips sentiment again.
Contract Absorption Rate: 65% Complete
Equaterra Research
Louis Rain
CEO, Equaterra Research
Disclaimer:
The content shared here is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as financial advice, investment recommendations, or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
COCOA Speculators increased longs by +5,730 and shorts by +2,682 which is a bullish tilt. Commercials added +1,990 shorts, signaling cautious hedging. Open interest jumped +7,533 to 104,424, marking strong market engagement.Strategic Read:
• Speculators are reloading — expect volatility.
• Commercials hedging — possible short-term ceiling.
• More liquidity = better trade efficiency.
We plan to stay in float preservation mode, harvesting volatility, and preparing for institutional positioning shifts as we approach June’s pivot.
Louis Rain
CEO, Equaterra Research
Disclaimer:
The content shared here is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as financial advice, investment recommendations, or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
COCOA A bearish move may have just begun for $COCOA. From my perspective, this could mean a potential shift in momentum into a corrective phase. This is not a trade idea, or financial advice, only a forecast based on the current market. tradingview.com/x/4MZQkqaP/
COCOA So the ICCO saying “five months remain” isn’t just a neutral update, that’s coded for volatility’s not over yet.What they’re really saying:
Uncertainty = there’s still no clear fix. The supply squeeze is alive — they’re just not spelling it out.
Five months = May through September which lines up perfectly with the volatility window we researched among October.
Our research found that Q1 grind data looks bad in the charts, but it’s only down ~3.5% YoY better than a lot of 2022. This suggests that the ICCO isn’t predicting stability, but stalling. That means price discovery is still on and funds are likely using this report as cover to suppress a breakout, reload at discount, and rinse weak positions again.
I’ll be eager to see how this plays out, as I continue absorbing contracts at low prices.
Louis Rain
CEO, Equaterra Research
Disclaimer:
The content shared here is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as financial advice, investment recommendations, or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
COCOA 2 da moon 🧨COCOA Although our research shows a bearish pullback is due, many bearish cocoa posts about Nigeria, South Sudan, and Papua New Guinea are premature. These remain highly speculative and years from having any meaningful impact. More likely, they're institutional sentiment plays not realities for this month. None threaten near-term supply on a macro-bullish scale. Soubre's rainfall is—and has been— misleading. Yes, 27mm was logged, but cumulative April/May rain remains far below the norm. Late rain does little if pod shrinkage has already set in and droughts have degraded soil quality. Even if production rises, ICE delivery standards, grading, and logistics remain major bottlenecks. Futures can't price beans they can't verify or ship. As for any $3,000/ton talk, it's noise. That's below breakeven and assumes a glut that doesn't exist. So vet everyone who posts here, including us if you like. You'd be surprised what you find. Funds are distorting sentiment to trap retail before the ICCO, let alone before the market even opens.Louis Rain
CEO, Equaterra Research
Disclaimer:
The content shared here is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as financial advice, investment recommendations, or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument.