TrumpFreeze: The biggest rise since 2008 replicates todayBy Ion Jauregui - Analyst ActivTrades
The global financial market experienced one of its most intense days in years following the unexpected announcement by President Donald Trump, who decreed a 90-day pause in the “mega-tariffs” applied to his main trading partners. The decision, which contradicts official statements issued only 48 hours earlier, has been interpreted as a first step towards the de-escalation of the trade war that began in mid-2024, and has generated a domino effect in all stock markets around the world.
Reaction in the United States: historic rally on Wall Street
The first response came from Wall Street, where the main indexes experienced a session that will go down in the financial history books. The S&P 500 soared 9.52%, marking its biggest daily advance since the 2008 financial crisis. The Nasdaq 100 staged an even more spectacular rise, up 13%. The Dow Jones also followed the upward trend, rising 8.9%. This rebound reflects not only the relief of the tariff pause, but also the immediate repositioning of investors, who see this truce as an opportunity to recalibrate their portfolios. Risk perceptions fell sharply, as evidenced by the nearly 20-point drop in the VIX index, its largest decline so far this century. The VIX, which had exceeded 50 points in recent days, is now back to more contained levels, reflecting an improvement in market sentiment.
Impact in Asia: mixed optimism, pressure on China
The Asian reaction was swift. The Japanese Nikkei rose by nearly 9%, benefiting from both the US rally and expectations of less global trade tension. The same was not true in China: both the Hang Seng and the CSI 300 were barely up around 2%, affected by Beijing's exclusion from this tariff truce. In addition, the yuan continues to weaken, approaching lows not seen since 2007, in anticipation of new stimulus measures from the Chinese authorities.
Hedges, currencies and investor sentiment
Portfolio repositioning has also been reflected in the currency markets. The dollar has strengthened against the euro, while safe-haven assets such as the Japanese yen or the Swiss franc have shown a partial reversal, a sign that investors are moving out of “panic” mode towards a more neutral stance. At the macroeconomic level, this truce offers a window for diplomacy and trade policy realignment. Exporting economies, especially in Asia and Europe, could benefit from moving towards a more structural solution. However, the exclusion of China, coupled with the fragility of the yuan, suggests that much remains to be resolved.
Europe: strong opening and technical potential
In Europe, futures anticipated an opening with significant bullish gaps. The EuroStoxx 50 and the German DAX showed gains of more than 7.5% before the bell. In Spain, the Ibex 35 opened with a rise of 3.4%, trying to recover some of the ground lost since the March highs at 13,515 points. From a technical point of view, the Spanish selective index could bounce up to the 12,320 or even 12,555 points, levels that coincide with 38.2% and 50% Fibonacci retracements, respectively.
Nevertheless, the environment is still dominated by high volatility. In general the European open could well be considered for novices and the American close especially like yesterday's is for professionals to “sign” due to extreme volatility with all indicators at extremes and trading ranges soaring. It is always interesting to trade them but risk management must be incisive to avoid that we have to take the situation out of the usual conditions. It is a bit reminiscent of what happened in Donald Trump's first term, which worked on the back of Twitter/X and today it seems that these communications seem to be having much greater effects.
Technical Analysis EuroStoxx50
As we commented the European index yesterday in the American session started the session strongly with an average of 9170 with a high of 17600 ticks. The RSI became overbought at 75% at the time of President Trump's statement, having corrected the price during the Asian session by -2.92%. The European session start has continued to consolidate cold losing another -2.39% so it has lost about half of what was recovered in yesterday's American session. If we look at the crosses of averages, early this morning we could witness how the 50 average overcame the 100 average, which may mean that despite this correction the market seems to want to hold the price, despite a clear downtrend. If we go to the Checkpoint we can see that this is located around 4,620 points the trading zone after yesterday's upward correction. If we see the pressure of the delta zones we can see that the zone of greater pressure is located around 4700 points being the support the area of the checkpoint, so we could see corrections in the American session that continue a slightly bearish European session, in the face of this price consolidation.
Conclusion: nuanced pause, market in unstable equilibrium.
Although Trump's strategic shift has momentarily restored optimism to the markets, the environment still calls for caution. This tariff pause does not represent a definitive solution, but a temporary truce. Markets move on headlines, but they are built on facts. And in a context where price moves faster than certainties, the disciplined investor must continue to manage his exposure rigorously.
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