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NAS100 trade ideas

NASDAQ 100 Short continuation or Start of next Bull Leg? 1. Top-Down Bias • Weekly (Long-Term) • Bias: Still in a primary uptrend (higher highs & higher lows, trading above key SMAs and the Ichimoku Cloud). • Current Pressure: Latest weekly candle shows a sharp pullback; momentum indicators (MACD, RSI) are rolling over from positive territory. • Daily (Intermediate) • Bias: Turned short-term bearish (clearly below daily Ichimoku Cloud, 10/50/100-day SMAs; lower highs & lower lows formed). • Key Pivot: 200-day SMA (~20,272). A sustained break below strengthens the intermediate downtrend; a defense of this level may spark a bounce. • 4H & 2H (Short-Term & Intraday) • Bias: Both are firmly bearish with a sequence of lower highs and lower lows, supported by high ADX and negative momentum readings. • Oversold Conditions: RSI and Stochastics are near oversold on lower timeframes, hinting at possible short-term bounces within a broader downtrend. Net Takeaway: • Long-term (Weekly) remains bullish. • Intermediate to short-term (Daily/4H/2H) is currently bearish. • Expect potential downward continuation unless the market reclaims key daily/4H resistance levels (around 21,000–21,200). 2. Key Levels & Confluences 1. Support Zones • Weekly/Daily Major Support: • 20,300–19,800 region: Aligns with the 200-day SMA (~20,272), 50% Fibonacci (~19,800), and previous bullish order blocks. • 19,500–19,200 area: Next layer of institutional demand if the 20k handle fails. • Deeper Weekly Support: 17,600–16,000 (if the sell-off becomes more pronounced). 2. Resistance Zones • Daily/4H Supply & Bearish Order Blocks: • 21,000–21,200: Confluence of broken support-turned-resistance, daily Ichimoku Cloud lower boundary, multiple SMAs overhead. • 22,000–22,200: Higher-timeframe supply zone where previous rallies failed. 3. Fibonacci Confluence • From the Weekly Swing (~17,378 low to ~22,206 high): • 38.2% (~20,362) near current price. • 50% (~19,796) is a critical deeper support. • Daily Extensions: If below 20,272, watch potential extension toward 1.618 (~19,475). 4. Trend Lines / Channels • Ascending Weekly Channel: Still intact overall, but price is testing lower bounds. • Broken Daily/4H Channel: Price has slipped beneath shorter-term ascending channels, reinforcing the current correction. 3. Scenario 1 (Bullish Continuation / Bounce) Despite the short-term downtrend, there is a chance that the weekly uptrend reasserts itself if price stabilizes above major support (particularly near the 200-day SMA or 19,800–20,300). Here’s how different risk appetites might approach a bullish scenario: 3.1 Narrative • Why Bullish? The weekly structure remains intact, and momentum oscillators (RSI, Stochastics) on lower timeframes are oversold. If price holds the 200-day SMA (~20,272) or the broader 19,800–20,300 demand zone, a relief rally could ensue—potentially aligning back with the higher-timeframe uptrend. 3.2 Aggressive / High-Risk Bullish Approach 1. Where/When to Enter • Look for early signals on 2H/4H near 20,300–20,500 (if tested and shows a bullish engulfing or strong volume spike). • Could also enter on a quick intraday bounce off 20,200–20,300 (if price wicks into that zone). 2. Stop-Loss Placement • Tight stop just below the most recent intraday swing low (e.g., below 20,200 or 20,100), giving minimal room for volatility. 3. Confirmation Level • Minimal confirmation: Possibly only a bullish candlestick pattern or a short-term RSI cross back above 30–35 (showing a slight momentum shift). 4. Pros & Cons • Pros: Best potential reward if you catch the exact turning point. • Cons: Higher chance of false break or whipsaw if price continues downward. 5. Target Levels & Profit Objectives • T1: ~20,900–21,000 (overhead Fib confluence + broken support). • T2: ~21,600–21,700 (daily middle Bollinger Band / cluster of SMAs). • Partial take-profit at T1; consider moving stop to break-even and aiming for T2 if momentum continues. 6. Invalidation • A decisive 4H close below 20,000 or the 200-day SMA being lost on a daily close with no immediate rebound. 3.3 Moderate-Risk Bullish Approach 1. Entry Conditions • Wait for a 4H candle close above a minor resistance or pivot (e.g., reclaiming 20,700–20,800). • Look for a bullish MACD cross or RSI returning above 40–45 on the 4H. 2. Stop-Loss Placement • Slightly below the newly formed higher low (once price confirms an upward pivot)—for instance, below ~20,400 if that level becomes an intraday support again. 3. Pros & Cons • Pros: Reduces the likelihood of entering on a dead-cat bounce. • Cons: Potentially misses the lowest entry if price rebounds sharply from 20,300. 4. Target Levels & Profit Objectives • T1: ~21,000–21,200 (near daily Ichimoku bottom/cloud edge). • T2: ~21,700–22,000 (upper daily Bollinger / major daily supply). • Scale out at T1 or tighten stop-loss; let the rest run if momentum persists. 5. Invalidation • A return below the 4H pivot or a break under ~20,300 after you’ve entered. 3.4 Conservative / Low-Risk Bullish Approach 1. Entry Conditions • Require a Daily close back above key resistance or the Ichimoku Cloud bottom (~21,200). • Multiple indicators aligned bullishly: RSI > 50 on 4H/Daily, MACD crossing positive, etc. 2. Stop-Loss Placement • Below the reclaimed pivot on the daily timeframe—e.g., below ~20,700–20,800 region—or beneath the 200-day SMA if you want an even wider stop. 3. Pros & Cons • Pros: Higher probability that the correction has ended. Fewer false signals. • Cons: Entering significantly higher reduces your initial risk/reward ratio. 4. Target Levels & Profit Objectives • T1: ~21,700–22,000. • T2: Retest of the most recent swing high around 22,200–22,400. • Could move stop to break-even after T1. 5. Invalidation • A Daily close back below ~20,700 or failing to hold the 200-day SMA on subsequent retests. 4. Scenario 2 (Bearish Reversal / Deeper Correction) Should the short-term downtrend continue, or if weekly support fails near 20k, the path of least resistance is lower. Below are approaches for different risk appetites. 4.1 Narrative • Why Bearish? Daily/4H/2H structure is decidedly bearish. If the 200-day SMA (~20,272) and nearby support (20,000–20,300) give way or fail to spark a sustained bounce, price could accelerate downward toward 19,800–19,500 or even lower. 4.2 Aggressive / High-Risk Bearish Approach 1. Entry Conditions • Short on minor bounces/retests of intraday resistance (e.g., 20,700–20,800) with minimal confirmation. • Possibly enter when 2H/4H candles show a quick rejection of the descending trend line or when RSI ticks back up to ~40 but fails to break higher. 2. Stop-Loss Placement • Tight stop just above the local swing high (e.g., above 20,900 or a short-term pivot). 3. Pros & Cons • Pros: Potentially large reward if price continues to drop swiftly. • Cons: Higher false-break risk if a sudden short-covering rally occurs. 4. Target Levels & Profit Objectives • T1: ~20,000–19,800 (major daily support, near 200-day SMA or Fib zone). • T2: ~19,500 or even 19,200 if momentum accelerates. • Consider partial profit at T1; let the remainder ride if the breakdown continues. 5. Invalidation • A sustained 4H close above 20,900–21,000 indicates short-term momentum shifting against you. 4.3 Moderate-Risk Bearish Approach 1. Entry Conditions • Wait for a 4H candle close below 20,400 or 20,300, confirming a new leg down. • Check that RSI remains < 50, MACD is negative, and no immediate bullish divergence. 2. Stop-Loss Placement • Above the retest zone near the breakdown point (~20,400–20,500), giving some room for volatility spikes. 3. Pros & Cons • Pros: Avoids jumping in on whipsaws; the downtrend is confirmed by a fresh breakdown. • Cons: May miss a portion of the initial move if price collapses quickly through 20,300. 4. Target Levels & Profit Objectives • T1: 19,800–19,500 range. • T2: 19,200 or lower, depending on volume flow and broader daily momentum. • Move stops to break-even after T1 if momentum continues. 5. Invalidation • A 4H close back above the breakdown level (~20,400–20,500) or a bullish crossover in MACD that breaks the downward structure. 4.4 Conservative / Low-Risk Bearish Approach 1. Entry Conditions • Wait for a Daily close below the 200-day SMA (~20,272) and/or sub-20k, plus a retest of that broken support that fails. • Indicators (RSI < 50, MACD negative) across Daily and 4H confirm sustained bearish control. 2. Stop-Loss Placement • Above the well-defined structural daily high (e.g., near 20,700–20,800) or above any retest zone. 3. Pros & Cons • Pros: High probability the trend is continuing downward without a sudden reversal. • Cons: You may enter significantly lower, reducing R:R if the biggest chunk of the move has already happened. 4. Target Levels & Profit Objectives • T1: ~19,500–19,200. • T2: If the weekly structure fully shifts, possibly mid- to upper-18k or even 17k in extreme scenarios. • Consider partial TP at T1, trailing the remainder for further downside. 5. Invalidation • A Daily close back above 20,400–20,500 or the 200-day SMA, negating the breakdown. 5. Risk Management & Position Sizing Guidelines 1. Volatility Awareness (ATR) • 4H ATR (~180) and Daily ATR (~379) indicate elevated volatility. If you choose tighter stops, consider reducing position size accordingly. • Alternatively, widen stops to accommodate swings, but reduce overall leverage to keep risk consistent (e.g., risk 1–2% of account). 2. Reward-to-Risk Ratios • Aim for at least 1:2 or better. • If uncertain about the next directional move, trade smaller or wait for confirmation. 3. Timeframe Alignment • When the Weekly and Daily align (bullish or bearish), you can consider a larger position size. • Currently, Weekly is bullish while Daily is bearish, so either trade smaller or adopt intraday strategies until clarity emerges. 4. Partial Profit Strategies • Scale out at T1 (first target) and trail your stop to break-even or near the entry. • Let the remainder run to T2 if momentum continues in your favor. 6. Extra Notes / Contradictions • Weekly vs. Intraday Mismatch: • The long-term chart is still bullish, yet daily/intraday charts are in a firm downtrend. Some traders may opt to only short intraday rallies until price reclaims key daily levels that align with the weekly uptrend. • News & Macro Catalysts: • Any significant economic releases or global risk events could abruptly shift technical setups. Be mindful of volatility spikes. • Ranging vs. Trending: • If the market churns sideways near 20,300–20,700, you might see multiple false breaks. Use higher-timeframe closes for clarity or reduce trade size if in doubt. 7. Final Summary 1. Top-Down Bias • Weekly: Bullish overall but momentum is fading. • Daily & Below: Bearish structure, with oversold indicators that might spark a short-term bounce. 2. Key Levels & Confluences • Support: 20,300–20,000 (incl. 200-day SMA), then 19,800–19,500. • Resistance: 20,700–21,000 for intraday bounces; 21,200–22,000 from daily order blocks. 3. Scenario 1 (Bullish): • Aggressive: Enter near 20,300–20,400 with minimal confirmation. Tight stops just below 20,200. • Moderate: Wait for a 4H close above 20,700–20,800. Stop below the higher low. • Conservative: A daily close above ~21,200 plus aligned indicators. Stop below the reclaimed pivot. 4. Scenario 2 (Bearish): • Aggressive: Short near 20,700–20,800 intraday bounces. Tight stop above swing high. • Moderate: Wait for a 4H close below 20,300–20,400. Stop above the retest zone. • Conservative: A daily close below the 200-day SMA and a failed retest. Stop above a daily pivot. 5. Risk Management: • Control position size based on ATR; keep R:R ≥ 1:2; consider scaling out at T1 and protecting capital. 6. Extra Notes / Contradictions: • A short-term bounce can occur at any time due to oversold indicators. Weekly remains structurally bullish, so watch for strong buying interest near 20k or 19.8k. Bottom line: The market is in a higher-timeframe uptrend but an active short-term correction. Traders can play a potential bounce off key support (Bullish Scenario) or join the short-term downtrend on rallies/fresh breakdowns (Bearish Scenario). As always, maintain disciplined stop-losses, manage position size relative to volatility, and let the market confirm your directional bias before committing significant capital. Disclaimer: This framework focuses on potential probabilities and technical triggers. No outcome is guaranteed; always adjust trade size and stops according to personal risk tolerance.
CAPITALCOM:US100
by EliteMarketAnalysis
A healthy retrace1- What a day yesterday! The bloodbath is not completed yet! Today is the end of D/W/M and it will be another huge red candle; another 800-900 points to the downside! 2- I was wrong about a retrace up; NVDA results were not sufficient to attract buyers. Market is pricing in the slowing down of US economy with a real risk of recession; all macro-data were bad recently. 3- This was fueled by US Tariffs. 4- Core PCE data came inline but higher than the previous reading. On the other hand, Trump mentioned the tax cuts which is very good for equities. Hence, this sell-off is not so bad; it's very healthy for the next move up. I will come back to this point during the Monthly/Weekly Analysis.
FOREXCOM:NAS100Short
by OTM-Fadhl
Is NASDAQ Losing Steam? A Reality Check for TradersHey Realistic Traders, Is CAPITALCOM:US100 Out of Steam? Let’s Dive Into the Analysis… On the daily timeframe, the Nasdaq remains above the EMA-100, which has served as strong support through multiple successful rebounds. Simultaneously, the price has moved above the bullish trendline, reinforcing the ongoing uptrend. Within wave 4, the price formed a falling wedge pattern, followed by a breakout. This signals the initiation of wave 5, which could potentially extend beyond the length of wave 1, given that wave 3 did not exceed the 1.618 Fibonacci ratio. Meanwhile, the MACD indicator has already formed a bullish crossover, adding further confirmation of a positive outlook for the Nasdaq. Considering these strong technical signals, the price is likely to move upward toward the first target at 23,538 , or potentially the second target at 24,356. However, this bullish scenario depends on the price staying above the critical stop-loss level at 20,833. Support the channel by engaging with the content, using the rocket button, and sharing your opinions in the comments below. Disclaimer: "Please note that this analysis is solely for educational purposes and should not be considered a recommendation to take a long or short position on Nasdaq."
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by financialfreedomgoals101
1
US 100 bias long bullish indications: making HHHL in day time frame, 4 hr : respected fib level 0.382 and retraced. Major support respected with morning star candle formation. Trend line resistance is broken. Forming a inverted head and shoulder pattern in 1 hr with MA21 being respected. There is a second formation of inverted head and shoulder in 30 min which indicates bullish move. 15 min shows clear bullish candle formation with IHS Bearish indications: Major resistance ahead to get the confluence for long . Based on the confluences pair shows bullish indications hence going long . Trade plan bias long @ 22106 SL:22050 TP1:22168 tp2:22211
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by gouthamkulal1
US100-bias short Bullish indications: Bullish inside bar candle in day time frame. Resistance broken at 21233 Bearish indications: Pair has made three black crows candles previously. Making LLLH in 4 hr time frame. in 2 hr : MA21 is getting respected which is a strong bearish signal , i should exit the trade immediately possible before it hits my SL . 4 hr : MA 21 is crossing over 200 indicates bearish 1 hr : strong bearish engulfer candle from resistance Trade plan bias short @21228 SL:21342 TP1:21118 TP2:21025
CAPITALCOM:US100Short
by gouthamkulal1
Nasdaq 100 Hits Yearly Low, Led by NVDA DeclineNasdaq 100 Hits Yearly Low, Led by NVDA Decline The Nasdaq 100 (US Tech 100 mini on FXOpen) has fallen below 20,500 for the first time since November 2024. Bearish sentiment driven by: → The latest US jobless claims report, which showed the highest figures of 2025. → Concerns over the destabilising and economically damaging potential of Donald Trump’s trade policies. Nvidia (NVDA) Among the Biggest Losers While the Nasdaq 100 lost over 2.5% in yesterday’s session, Nvidia (NVDA) shares plunged nearly 8% despite a stronger-than-expected quarterly report, as we noted yesterday. Technical Analysis of the Nasdaq 100 (US Tech 100 mini on FXOpen) The ongoing decline has resulted in a bearish breakout of the trendline (marked in blue) that originated in 2024. Based on key reversals (highlighted with red circles), the chart now outlines a descending channel. An attempted breakout (indicated by an arrow) failed, forming a bearish Rounding Top pattern. If bearish sentiment prevails—especially with focus on inflation data, as the Core PCE Price Index is set to be released today at 16:30 GMT+3—Nasdaq 100 (US Tech 100 mini on FXOpen) may drop further towards the lower boundary of the descending channel. Trade on TradingView with FXOpen. Consider opening an account and access over 700 markets with tight spreads from 0.0 pips and low commissions from $1.50 per lot. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:NDQM
by FXOpen
1
Price may continue to decline, wait for market rebound and entry(The following is solely a personal opinion and not investment advice. Please conduct your own analysis before making any decisions.) NVIDIA's earnings report exceeded expectations, yet the market saw a sharp decline on Thursday. The price broke below 20,800, indicating weakening bullish momentum and the potential for further downside. Given the significant drop in price, it would be prudent to wait for a market rebound before considering short positions. I will closely monitor price action in the 21,300–21,481 range.
OANDA:NAS100USDShort
by zygliu
US Tech 100 (NDX) Technical Analysis - Bearish Swing OpportunityThe Nasdaq-100 has reached a critical technical juncture presenting a high-probability short opportunity for the coming week. Multiple technical factors have aligned to suggest a significant downside move is developing. Key Technical Observations Price Structure Analysis Formation of a failed retest of broken uptrend support, now functioning as resistance Rejection from the Point of Control (POC) area around 21,122 Price failed to recapture the key Value Area Low (VAL) at 21,086 Clear lower highs and lower lows developing on the H4 timeframe Moving Average Configuration All major EMAs (8, 13, 21, 55, 200) are in bearish alignment Price trading well below the 55 EMA, confirming the bearish bias Recent price action showing rejection at the 21 EMA intersection Momentum Indicators MACD showing continued negative momentum and bearish divergence Volume profile indicates diminishing buying pressure during recent consolidation Momentum oscillators in oversold territory but showing no reversal signals Trade Setup Entry near 21,110 provides an excellent risk-reward opportunity with a stop above the recent swing high at 21,383. The primary target at 20,500 represents a significant support level and offers substantial profit potential. Macro Context Recent macroeconomic uncertainty combined with technical exhaustion after the recent rally creates an environment supportive of this correction. Key catalysts in the coming days could accelerate this move. Expected Price Behavior Look for initial support tests around 21,000 psychological level, followed by potential acceleration toward the blue box support zone. Expect periods of consolidation during this move, particularly at previous support levels around 20,950 and 20,750. This setup provides an excellent swing trading opportunity with favorable risk-reward dynamics and strong technical confirmation.
ICMARKETS:USTECShort
by FXCapitalClub