$JPN225: Nikkei setting up for a rallyAs China reopening looms, maybe we get a boost too Japanese equities from here onwards...There's some interesting names, like Casio, whose line of luxury and more fashionable watches has been successful as of late. Definitely worth looking into it more. The index futures chart has a potential bottom signal in the short term at least, and with news of COVID zero being phased out, we might get the pop that is needed to kick start a Santa Rally here. Entries and stops and take profit levels on chart.
Best of luck!
Ivan Labrie.
NIKKEI225 trade ideas
Nikkei225 short term bullish?The Daily RSI is pretty low
BoJ didn’t raise the interest rates
The market is trading withing range for over six months now.
With low Christmas volatility, the buyers might move the market to 27100- ish.
This is not a trading advice. Trading is risky, always do your own analisys before opening the trade.
Buying Nikkei at previous support.NIK225 - 20h expiry - We look to Buy at 27510 (stop at 27290)
Selling pressure from 28166 resulted in all the initial daily gains being overturned.
The current move lower is expected to continue.
The medium term bias remains bullish.
We therefore, prefer to fade into the dip with a tight stop in anticipation of a move back higher.
Our profit targets will be 28030 and 28460
Resistance: 28460 / 29235 / 30220
Support: 27425 / 26700 / 26470
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The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
Selling Nikkei into a rally.NIK225 - 20h expiry - We look to Sell at 28080 (stop at 28260)
Although the bulls are in control, the stalling positive momentum indicates a turnaround is possible.
This is negative for short term sentiment and we look to set shorts at good risk/reward levels for a further correction lower.
The hourly chart technicals suggests further upside before the downtrend returns.
Preferred trade is to sell into rallies. Although the anticipated move lower is corrective, it does offer ample risk/reward today.
Our profit targets will be 27565 and 27110
Resistance: 27925 / 28425 / 29240
Support: 27520 / 27110 / 26610
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
NIKKEI225 Weekly Volatility Analysis 12-16 Dec 2022 NIKKEI225 Weekly Volatility Analysis 12-16 Dec 2022
We can see that currently the implied volatility for this week is around 3.16%, up 2.05% from last week according to DVOL data
With this in mind, currently from ATR point of view we are located in the 38th percentile,
while according to VIX, we are on 25th percentile.
Based on this, we can expect that the current weekly candles ( from open to close ) are going to between:
Bullish: 1.82% movement
Bearish: 1.74% movement
At the same time, with this data, we can make a top/bot channel which is going to contain inside the movement of this asset,
meaning that there is a 22.4% that our close of the weekly candle of this asset is going to be either above/below the next channel:
TOP: 28309
BOT: 27170
Taking into consideration the previous weekly high/low, currently for this candle there is :
73% probability we are going to touch previous high 27955
27% probability we are going to touch previous low 27419
Lastly, from the technical analysis point of view, currently from
Weekly timeframe indicates 64% BULLISH trend from the moving averages index
Daily timeframe indicates 21% BULLISH trend from the moving averages index
4H timeframe indicates 7% BEARISH trend from the moving averages index
Selling Nikkei at swing high.NIK225 - 21h expiry - We look to Sell at 27925 (stop at 28140)
Buying pressure from 27410 resulted in prices rejecting the dip.
With the Ichimoku cloud resistance above we expect gains to be limited.
Preferred trade is to sell into rallies.
Although the anticipated move lower is corrective, it does offer ample risk/reward today.
Our profit targets will be 27415 and 27110
Resistance: 27925 / 28425 / 29240
Support: 27515 / 27110 / 26610
Disclaimer – Saxo Bank Group.
Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like any and all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site (including those from Signal Centre) are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Such technical analysis are believed to be obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not warrant their respective completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of any and all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
Please also be reminded that if despite the above, any of the said technical analysis (or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/through this site) is found to be advisory or a recommendation; and not merely informational in nature, the same is in any event provided with the intention of being for general circulation and availability only. As such it is not intended to and does not form part of any offer or recommendation directed at you specifically, or have any regard to the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of yourself or any other specific person. Before committing to a trade or investment therefore, please seek advice from a financial or other professional adviser regarding the suitability of the product for you and (where available) read the relevant product offer/description documents, including the risk disclosures. If you do not wish to seek such financial advice, please still exercise your mind and consider carefully whether the product is suitable for you because you alone remain responsible for your trading – both gains and losses.
Nasdaq going back to 1989 - Japanese Nikkei 225Sometimes reality is clear in front of everyone you just need to rewind and take a look at history.
Cycles are like human habits they do not change unless the environment around them changes.
Enjoy the good times while they last, we have only months left.
We Have Learned Nothing.
Nikkei to fakeout?NIK225 - 21h expiry - We look to Sell at 28455 (stop at 28650)
We are trading at overbought extremes.
A lower correction is expected.
Previous resistance located at 28339. Preferred trade is to sell into rallies.
Although the anticipated move lower is corrective, it does offer ample risk/reward today.
Our profit targets will be 27895 and 27515
Resistance: 28425 / 29240 / 30175
Support: 27925 / 27515 / 27110
Disclaimer – Saxo Bank Group.
Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like any and all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site (including those from Signal Centre) are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Such technical analysis are believed to be obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not warrant their respective completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of any and all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
Please also be reminded that if despite the above, any of the said technical analysis (or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/through this site) is found to be advisory or a recommendation; and not merely informational in nature, the same is in any event provided with the intention of being for general circulation and availability only. As such it is not intended to and does not form part of any offer or recommendation directed at you specifically, or have any regard to the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of yourself or any other specific person. Before committing to a trade or investment therefore, please seek advice from a financial or other professional adviser regarding the suitability of the product for you and (where available) read the relevant product offer/description documents, including the risk disclosures. If you do not wish to seek such financial advice, please still exercise your mind and consider carefully whether the product is suitable for you because you alone remain responsible for your trading – both gains and losses.
JP225 IDEAHELLO GUYS THIS MY IDEA 💡ABOUT JP225USD is nice to see strong volume area....
Where is lot of contract accumulated..
I thing that the buyers from this area will be defend this LONG position..
and when the price come back to this area, strong buyers will be push up the market again..
UP TREND + Resistance from the past + Strong volume area is my mainly reason for this long trade..
IF you like my work please like and follow thanks
Buying Nikkei in a bullish channel.NIK225 - 22h expiry - We look to Buy at 27675 (stop at 27360)
Although the bears are in control, the stalling negative momentum indicates a turnaround is possible.
Trading within a Bullish Channel formation.
Our expectation now is for this swing lower to continue towards the bottom of the trend channel, to complete a correction before buyers return.
Preferred trade is to buy on dips.
Our profit targets will be 28580 and 29240
Resistance: 28360 / 29240 / 30175
Support: 27370 / 26930 / 26385
Disclaimer – Saxo Bank Group.
Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like any and all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site (including those from Signal Centre) are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Such technical analysis are believed to be obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not warrant their respective completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of any and all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
Please also be reminded that if despite the above, any of the said technical analysis (or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/through this site) is found to be advisory or a recommendation; and not merely informational in nature, the same is in any event provided with the intention of being for general circulation and availability only. As such it is not intended to and does not form part of any offer or recommendation directed at you specifically, or have any regard to the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of yourself or any other specific person. Before committing to a trade or investment therefore, please seek advice from a financial or other professional adviser regarding the suitability of the product for you and (where available) read the relevant product offer/description documents, including the risk disclosures. If you do not wish to seek such financial advice, please still exercise your mind and consider carefully whether the product is suitable for you because you alone remain responsible for your trading – both gains and losses.
NIKKEI 225 CFD BEARISH PATTERNJapan is currently facing an inflation high not seen in 40 years. The weak yen and the increased cost of foreign supply for industrial commodities and manufacturing parts are slowing down the economy of the country.
On the technical front the index has broken the support of the triangle pattern and a bearish move might be expected. RSI indicator is heading below 50 neutral line and MACD histogram is below 0.
If the pattern continues the price might test the support levels of 27831. In the opposite scenario, the price might try to reach its previous resistance at 27929.50
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There is no bottom in the stock without a bottom in the bond
My Dashboard on Tradingview
www.tradingview.com
where I am monitoring the entire bond market in the world with my magma indicator, country by country.
When investing for the long term I first look the bond market before leaping in the stocks.
There are few simple and important rules to follow in this market.
1. Higher Bond yields = Lower Bond Prices = Bottom in the bond market is more bottom
2. Short-mid term bond yields is closing to long-term yields (example 2-Years yield = 10-Years yield) = This means flattening = not good for long-term investment, stay alerting for your paper profits.
3. Short-mid term bond yields is greater than long-term yields (example 2-Years yield is greater than 10-Years yield) = This means inversion = not good, imminent fear of recession (remember: stock market does not perform well during recessions)
4. Short-mid-term bond yields is less than long-term yields (example 2-Years yield is less than 10-Years yield and going lower) = That's fine, economics sounds good for long-term investments
What I see now: United States, Canada, Brazil are countries with the most prolongated inversion areas (highlighted with red circles in the figure above).
5. More prolongated inversion = not good, even more.
Flattening areas (yellow circles) have to be carefully monitored.
Few examples currently are showing good news (green circles) : Japan long-term and mid-term yield curves are fine and in the good direction. Same as in Australia.
NIKKEI 225 Monthly Forecast Movements 1-30 November 2022 NIKKEI 225 Monthly Forecast Movements 1-30 November 2022
We can see that for this month, the implied volatility is around 4.56%, rising 3.68% of last month.
This is currently placing us in the 25th percentile according to ATR and 83th according to JNIV
Based on this percentile calculation, on average the monthly movement for the candle(from open of the candle to the close of the candle) is:
BEARISH Candle : 4.7%
BULLISH Candle : 3.1%
With this in mind we can expect with a close to 23.4% probability that our close of the monthly candle is going to close either above or below the next channel:
BOT: 26600
TOP: 28630
Lastly, based on the calculations that we had for touching the previous candle high and low values, we can estimate that there is a :
80% chance that we are going to touch the previous monthly high of 27600 (already happened yesterday)
25% chance that we are going to touch the previous monthly low of 25600
Selling JP225 into swing highs.NIK225 - 22h expiry - We look to Sell at 27390 (stop at 27610)
Although the bulls are in control, the stalling positive momentum indicates a turnaround is possible.
We are trading at overbought extremes.
Previous resistance located at 27397.
A lower correction is expected.
The hourly chart technicals suggests further upside before the downtrend returns. We look to sell rallies.
Our profit targets will be 26810 and 26385
Resistance: 27370 / 28360 / 29240
Support: 26385 / 25500 / 24485
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
Range bound Nikkei, Bullish mean revThe range bound Nikkei is rebounding off support at 25,750 and heading back to the mean at 27,875 and possibly to the resistance at 30,000. The last pivot low has created bullish hidden divergence which could mean the Nikkei breaks out of its range and rallies higher.