Dollar I Daily CLS I Model 1 I KL OB I Target TRCandleYo Market Warriors ⚔️
It's risky, re-entry, but scared money makes no money.
if you’ve been riding with me, you already know:
🎯My system is 100% mechanical. No emotions. No trend lines. No subjective guessing. Just precision, structure, and sniper entries.
🧠 What’s CLS?
It’s the real smart money. The invisible hand behind $7T/day — banks, algos, central players.
📍Model 1:
HTF bias based on the daily and weekly candles closes,
Wait for CLS candle to be created and manipulated. Switch to correct LTF and spot CIOD. Enter and target 50% of the CLS candle.
For high probability include Dealing Ranges, Weekly Profiles and CLS Timing.
Trading is like a sport. If you consistently practice you can learn it.
“Adapt what is useful. Reject whats useless and add whats is specifically yours.”
David Perk aka Dave FX Hunter
💬 Don't hesitate to ask any questions or share your opinions
USDX trade ideas
Dollar I Daily CLS I KL - OB I Model 1Yo Market Warriors ⚔️
Fresh outlook drop — if you’ve been riding with me, you already know:
🎯My system is 100% mechanical. No emotions. No trend lines. No subjective guessing. Just precision, structure, and sniper entries.
🧠 What’s CLS?
It’s the real smart money. The invisible hand behind $7T/day — banks, algos, central players.
📍Model 1:
HTF bias based on the daily and weekly candles closes,
Wait for CLS candle to be created and manipulated. Switch to correct LTF and spot CIOD. Enter and target 50% of the CLS candle.
For high probability include Dealing Ranges, Weekly Profiles and CLS Timing.
Trading is like a sport. If you consistently practice you can learn it.
“Adapt what is useful. Reject whats useless and add whats is specifically yours.”
David Perk aka Dave FX Hunter
💬 Don't hesitate to ask any questions or share your opinions
USD Falling Wedge Breakout - Bulls Continue to Turn the TideThe USD showed oversold conditions via RSI on both the daily and weekly chart as we began Q3. But, so far, the new quarter has shown a change-of-pace, as the currency has continued to rally with another topside breakout today around CPI data.
The breakout today happened at a big spot - as the long-term fibonacci level at 97.93 had previously helped to hold support back in April, leading to the bounce that ran into May. More recently that price had come in as resistance, until this morning's breakout. And it was in the immediate aftermath of the CPI release that buyers came in to hold the low at that exact level five minutes after the data dropped, and that led to a strong breakout in the USD as bulls took over.
The move is still fresh, however, as we haven't yet seen 23.6% of the sell-off from H1 get clawed back. The retracement from that move plots at 99.63, with the 100.00 level sitting overhead. Below that price, the 99.39 level remains notable as this was a June swing high, and now functions as a follow-through resistance level.
Bigger picture, it's the 101.65-102.00 zone that bulls will need to show up at to make this into anything more than a corrective pullback in a broader bearish trend. - js
DXY may rebound significantly soonDXY Likely to Rebound Significantly Soon
Technical Perspective:
DXY recently broke below its previous low, forming a lower low, with both EMAs signaling a downtrend. However, the price has now reached a 14-year-old long-term ascending trendline support , which reflects the strength and effectiveness of this tool. So, we can expect a reaction at this line. Additionally, the RSI has entered the oversold zone (for the third time) and a Bullish Divergence has formed, supporting the possibility of a rebound in DXY in the near term.
However, any rebound may only be short-lived due to the recent strong bearish momentum and the steepness of the downtrend. A pullback following the rebound may occur, possibly retesting the ascending trendline before a more sustained trend reversal can take place (unless the price breaks below the trendline, which would indicate a bearish continuation following the prevailing downtrend).
The rebound, if it happens here, can target around the psychological level near 100 ±1 before pulling back again, which, if the pullback in the next shot does not result in a new low, it could signal the end of the downtrend, though this may take some time to materialize. (Please do not forget that we are looking at a weekly timeframe where each leg may take weeks or even months)
Hence, this level may mark the bottom of the current DXY downcycle or, at the very least, trigger a significant rebound.
Fundamental Perspective:
The key factor behind recent US dollar weakness has been President Trump's tariff policies, which have raised concerns over US assets. However, negotiations with major trade partners have been progressing, and many are nearing resolution. This is helping reduce investor concerns over a potential disruption to the global economic system.
The market appears to have passed its peak panic phase. Thus, further downside surprises are unlikely, as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently remarked, the reciprocal tariffs announced are currently at the highest level. Over time, markets are expected to start pricing out the concerns, which could lead to a rebound in the US dollar.
An overlooked risk is the sizable US government bond maturities from June to August 2025, which may strain rollover demand. A smooth passage of this period could restore dollar confidence and support DXY. (This suggests that the reversal may take 1–3 months before a clear uptrend emerges.)
Some may argue that potential Fed rate cuts may pressure the dollar, but with two cuts largely priced in, the impact could be limited. A rebound may follow as markets shift from "buy the rumor, sell the fact."
Finally, please remember that President Trump’s tariff policies are aimed at reducing the US trade deficit—an objective that is likely to be met. As the effects of tariffs start to show in trade balance data by Q4 or beyond, confidence in the US dollar could return, accelerating DXY's recovery momentum.
Call for Action: This zone presents potential for accumulating positions due to a potential reversal, for both short-term and long-term investors, with the added advantage of a high risk-reward ratio.
Analysis by: Krisada Yoonaisil, Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
Weekly DXY OutlookWeekly DXY Outlook - Updated
DXY is still bullish and is rising slowly
On the weekly chart, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has reached a critical zone that was last tested in February 2022.
While a rebound is not guaranteed, the fact that the DXY has declined nearly 12% over just six months—despite a resilient U.S. economy—suggests the potential for renewed strength in the dollar.
I think the index could begin a recovery toward key levels at 100.00, 101.97, and possibly 106.00/
It’s worth noting that the broader bearish trend began with the trade tensions initiated during the Trump administration, which strained relations with several major trading partners.
Given that this is a weekly chart, it should be used more as a reference point rather than a trading signal.
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
A Closer Look at the Role and Recent Volatility of the (DXY)A Closer Look at the Role and Recent Volatility of the US Dollar Index (DXY)
We don’t even need to say that the US Dollar Index (DXY) is one of the most influential benchmarks in global currency markets. The index, which measures the value of the US dollar against a basket of six major currencies, experiences heightened volatility and presents potential opportunities.
Understanding the DXY: A Macro Lens on the Dollar
The DXY tracks the relative strength of the US dollar versus a weighted currency basket including the euro, Japanese yen, British pound, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona, and Swiss franc. Although the euro comprises nearly 58% of the index, the DXY reflects broad USD strength or weakness across global markets, not just against a single currency.
Traders and analysts use the DXY as a key macro indicator—to track policy divergence between central banks, to hedge USD exposure, and to assess broader market sentiment. Rising DXY levels often signal tightening US policy or global risk aversion, while declines may reflect weakening growth expectations, dovish Fed policy, or geopolitical stress. In volatile environments like 2025, the DXY serves as a real-time barometer of global confidence in the US economy and dollar-based assets.
Recent Price Swings: Tariffs & Policy Uncertainty Shake the Dollar
Since April, the US Dollar Index has faced one of its most volatile stretches in years, driven by a convergence of Federal Reserve policy uncertainty and new trade tariffs announced by President Trump.
April: “Liberation Day” Tariffs Trigger Market Shock
On 2 April, the announcement of sweeping “Liberation Day” tariffs—10% on nearly all imports, with higher duties on selected countries—jolted currency markets. The DXY fell over 2% in a single day. In the following weeks, the index continued to decline as business confidence deteriorated and early signs of recession risk emerged.
May–June: Policy Headwinds Compound Dollar Weakness
As the tariff package took effect, the dollar extended its slide—marking a ~10% drop from its late‑2024 peak, the worst first-half performance in over 50 years. Investors reassessed US growth prospects amid the pressures of trade friction. The Fed responded with a hawkish pause, while President Trump publicly urged for rate cuts, further muddying the policy outlook and pressuring the dollar.
July: Uncertainty Builds
By early July, the DXY had fallen below 97, tallying an approximate 11% year-to-date decline. Analysts cite a “perfect storm” of expanding fiscal deficits, erratic trade decisions, and growing doubts over US policy credibility as key reasons for the dollar’s fall from favour.
Why DXY Matters Now More Than Ever
The DXY has become a real-time gauge of market confidence in US policy stability. The dollar’s sharp decline in 2025 underscores how fragile that confidence can be in the face of aggressive trade measures and uncertain monetary direction.
The introduction of Trump’s tariffs has raised structural concerns among investors:
- Growth expectations have been cut due to higher input costs and supply chain friction.
- The so-called safe-haven appeal of the USD has eroded, with flows shifting to the euro, Swiss franc, and gold.
- Foreign demand for dollar assets has softened, as fears of a prolonged trade conflict and fiscal indiscipline mount.
In this climate, the DXY has evolved into a barometer for geopolitical tension, inflation fears, and investor sentiment towards US leadership.
Bottom Line
The DXY is not just a tool for dollar specialists—it's a key reference for any trader dealing with macro-sensitive instruments. As the global rate environment continues to shift and the US economy shows mixed signals, the DXY may become one of the most revealing indicators to watch and trade in the second half of 2025.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
DXY (USD Basket) - 3 Month - Short Squeeze In Play?Technicals:
The last 3-month candle closed above the major resistance that tends to hold according to historic levels going back to the year 1967.
Golden Cross is almost complete (50 MA crossing the 200 MA).
Fundamentals:
The dollar has only been more shorted once in history (2018), setting things up for a potential "Short Squeeze" and triggering a "Risk Off" scenario. Tends to hurt risk assets quite hard—for example, tech stocks, crypto, and other leverage plays.
A rise in the DXY could potentially trigger a "Short Squeeze" for foreign countries, companies, and investors that borrow in USD, creating "economic panic" in other countries that get their currency devalued relative to their obligations.
Countries that need USD to service their debt. With the current tariffs, the flow of dollars in the world will change. The question is: what will the effect look like in August when these tariffs start to go live? Like I mentioned before, other countries need the dollars in order to service their debt. If it gets more expensive for US consumers to import (caused by the tariffs), the exporting countries won’t get those dollars—setting it up for a buying cycle that could potentially drive the USD (DXY) higher, even to all-time highs.
Current narrative:
The narrative right now is that the USD will get "worthless," setting the stage to take more risk and use more leverage, maybe without even hedging. A surprise variable to this narrative could be devastating to the financial markets—not just in the US, but even to the world. IF/When this happens, everyone will hunt the USD once again, creating a new bullish narrative for the USD, and everyone will be forced to return to the reserve currency.
Nothing in this post should be considered financial advice. Always do your own research and analysis before investing.
DXY Tests Key Support – What’s Next for the Dollar?
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the dollar’s performance against a basket of major currencies, recently broke below its 50-month moving average based on the monthly chart —a significant technical signal. After this drop, the index is now bouncing off a key support zone near 96.50.
This area has acted as a pivot point in past cycles, and a sustained bounce could indicate the dollar regaining strength. If risk sentiment fades—due to weaker equity markets, geopolitical tensions, or stronger U.S. data—the dollar might find new momentum.
On the flip side, failure to hold 96.50 could open the door toward the 90.00 zone, a major long-term support level. Such a move would likely reflect expectations of looser U.S. monetary policy or further deterioration in economic confidence.
For now, price action near 96.50 will be decisive. A rebound could shift sentiment back in favor of the dollar, while a deeper decline may trigger broader adjustments in FX markets. Traders should closely monitor upcoming macro data and risk sentiment for cues on the next leg.
DXY strengthens but can it break THIS key level?The US dollar has gained ground this week, with the Dollar Index rising to retest the previously broken April low near the 97.92 level—an important technical zone. The short-term bias would flip to being bullish if this area breaks.
The greenback’s strength has been underpinned in part by unexpectedly strong economic data. For instance, Thursday’s weekly jobless claims came in at 227,000, below the forecast of 235,000. This marks the fourth consecutive weekly decline and the lowest reading in seven weeks, reinforcing the view that the US labour market remains tighter than anticipated.
Adding to this backdrop are President Trump’s threats of higher tariffs and expansive fiscal plans—described as “big, beautiful” spending and tax initiatives. These factors increase the risk of more persistent inflation.
While the Federal Reserve is still widely expected to initiate rate cuts in September, the rising inflationary pressures could slow the pace of easing thereafter. This shift would likely provide support for the dollar so long as investors don't lose trust in US monetary policy.
By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
Dollar Index Analysis – Trump, Hegemony & a Dangerous Disconnect🇺🇸💣 Dollar Index Analysis – Trump, Hegemony & a Dangerous Disconnect 📉⚠️
Hey Traders,
FXPROFESSOR here with a deep-dive update on the Dollar Index (DXY) – and this one hits both technicals and macro geopolitics.
🧠 Macro Context:
For decades, the U.S. strategically outsourced much of its basic manufacturing capacity to China—everything from screws, cables, plastics, and circuit boards. This freed America to focus on high-margin sectors like technology, finance, and defense innovation.
But this efficiency came at a cost: dependency. You can't be the military and economic hegemon of the world if you don’t manufacture your own basic components. That’s the foundation of hard power—and Trump understands this well.
🔁 Now Trump is trying to reverse that.
He knows America can’t win long-term without reclaiming production and export competitiveness – and a strong dollar kills that dream.
So what’s the play?
✅ Trump brings the volatility
✅ Fed stays cautious
✅ Dollar weakens... but without actual rate cuts
That’s the scary part 👇
📉 💵 Dollar Strength vs. Treasury Stress
This is also why the U.S. Treasury market is under stress. If the U.S. wants to rebuild domestic production, reduce trade deficits, and support massive fiscal spending, it needs to weaken the dollar and attract internal capital—not depend on foreign buyers of debt.
A strong dollar = trade imbalance, hollowed industry, and rising debt service costs.
A normalized dollar = controlled exports, internal manufacturing, and a potential realignment of global capital flows.
📉 The Chart: "The Year of the Normalized Dollar"
🟡 This is a continuation of the same chart I published over a year ago.
Key Rejection Zone: 100.965 (former support, now resistance)
Current Trajectory: Approaching my long-held target at 94.677
Macro Message: The dollar is dropping without a Fed pivot
Worrying Signal: If we hit major support while the Fed stays tight... the entire market may need to reprice expectations. That could shake equities and crypto alike.
🧊 This is not a clean-cut dollar short anymore . It’s already priced in, and that’s why I’m spooked.
🧭 What I’m Watching:
Will Trump’s trade war accelerate this move?
Will Powell finally cut in September—or double down?
Will the support at 94.5 hold, or break and open a much larger macro shift?
This chart is no longer just technical. It’s political. It’s strategic. It’s a chessboard for hegemony.
🎥 FULL 20-min video breakdown is now live!
I cover DXY, Bitcoin, tech stocks, gold, silver, DAX, BTC.D and much more
Watch it if you want the full map of what I’m thinking this week.
One Love,
The FXPROFESSOR 💙
Disclosure: I am happy to be part of the Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Awesome broker, where the trader really comes first! 🌟🤝📈
Potential bullish rise?US Dollar Index (DXY) has reacted off the pivot and could rise to the 50% Fibonacci resistance.
Pivot: 97.81
1st Support: 97.19
1st Resistance: 99.25
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Tariff Wars Pushing USD HigherThis is the Weekly FOREX Forecast for the week of July 14 - 18th.
In this video, we will analyze the following FX market: USD Index
The latest headlines tell the story. The tariffs are triggering a slow run to the USD safe haven, but the inflows from investors are moving the needle. The previous week closed strong, with buyers in control. There's a good chance we'll see more of the same this coming week.
Look for the strength in USD to continue to be supported by fundamental news, and outperform the other major currencies.
Buy USDxxx
Sell xxxUSD
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
July 7 - 1th: Sell The RIPs, Buy The DIPs! (PART 1)This is Part 1 of the FOREX futures outlook for the week of July 7 - 11th.
In this video, we will analyze the following FX markets:
USD Index, EUR, GBP, AUD, NZD, & CAD.
Last Friday was a bank holiday, so the price action is discounted. This Monday has no red folders on the calendar, so the environment is set for a day of misdirection. Be careful to take only trades that confirm your directional bias!
USD is still weak, and analyst have determined the FED will put off cutting rates until September. Tariffs wars may start up again July 9th. And Trumps Bill can add 3+ trillion to the debt.
None of this supports the USD!
Look to buy the dips xxx USD, and look to sell the rips vs USD xxx.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
DOLLAR MONTHLYTHE monthly chart of dollar index reflect the economic health of the united states and the strength of the us dollar .
its key and critical to the direction and trade directional bias of AUDUSD,USDJPY,EURUSD,GBPUSD,USDZAR NZDUSD,USDCAD.
if this monthly chart is true expect a reversal on all the mentioned pairs.
GOLD could be exception as a top tier asset and store of value .
#dxy #dollar
DXY eyes on 97.847 - 97.903 : Exact zone to break the DownTrend The Dollar has not been so mighty since Trump.
But there are signs of a possible bottom forming.
Key is the well known battle zone 97.847-97.905
Break and clean Retest would signal the bottom.
Rejecting here would start next leg southward.
Is the world really going to De-Dollarize? Nope.
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Bearish continuation?US Dollar Index (DXY) is risng towards the pivot which is a pullback resistance and could drop to the 1st support.
Pivot: 99.21
1st Support: 96.50
1st Resistance: 100.58
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.