USDX trade ideas
Potential bullish rise?US Dollar Index (DXY) has reacted off the pivot which has been identified as a pullback support and could rise to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 107.90
1st Support: 107.12
1st Resistance: 108.93
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
DXY - Gap to Fill, "UP then Down"?Dear Friends,
How I see it:
If support holds between 108 & 107, Index will fill the gap first.
Then continue to test support below 108.
I deeply appreciate you taking the time to study my analysis and point of view.
$DXY Dollar on Deck: Will Tariffs Ignite or Undermine the Green TVC:DXY Dollar on Deck: Will Tariffs Ignite or Undermine the Greenback? 🔥💰
Is the U.S. Dollar about to flex its muscles like the Incredible Hulk—or get knocked out by global trade tensions? Let’s find out. 💪⚡
1/
Is the U.S. Dollar about to “Hulk out” 💪 or trip over its own shoelaces? Let’s break down the latest on the Dollar Index ( TVC:DXY ) after new tariff chatter. 🧵
2/
Markets briefly cheered Trump’s slower tariff rollout, fueling an S&P rally. But lingering threats against China, the EU, & NAFTA partners keep investors on edge—and that spells potential volatility for the dollar. ⚠️
3/
Near-term catalyst? February 1. Tariffs could jump to 10% on Chinese imports & 25% on Canada/Mexico. Higher import costs might boost the dollar (safe-haven appeal + inflation expectations), but watch for global retaliation. 🌐
4/
Tariffs + inflation = possible dollar strength. When prices rise, the greenback often flexes. But if the global economy slows due to aggressive trade policies, the TVC:DXY could feel the burn. 🔥
5/
Currency manipulation reviews by April 1 add more spice. If the U.S. takes action against “manipulators,” some see it as bullish for the buck. Others fear a global trade skirmish that drags everyone down. 🤔
6/
From a technical angle:
• Watch key support/resistance levels.
• Safe-haven flows could drive TVC:DXY up.
• Swift reversals are possible if markets sense overreach or a global slowdown. 📈📉
7/
Where do you see TVC:DXY heading with these tariff moves?
A) Strong rally ahead 🚀
B) Short spike, then slump ⬇️
C) Range-bound and choppy 🤷♂️
Tell us in the comments
Analysis of the dollar indexMy analysis with goals
The index updated after seeing the goals,everything is clear
DXY, what, when & why?, through patternsH!, trying to give some reasons behind the DXY movement during previous few months and weeks using patterns
going to add few more graphics below
hope u like it
thanks
Why Tariffs & Why Now?Trump's tariffs aim to reshape international trade. They target imports from China, Mexico, and Canada starting February 1.
The president sees tariffs as both a policy tool and a growing revenue stream. By imposing fees on foreign goods, he hopes to protect U.S. industries and encourage fair trade practices. U.S. manufacturers face an uneven playing field when compared to foreign counterparts like those in Mexico and China, due to differences in regulations and quality controls.
For instance, China doesn’t have strict regulations like OSHA, which ensures worker safety and environmental standards in the U.S. Additionally, Chinese manufacturers often don't face the same level of quality control scrutiny that domestic manufacturing companies do. These disparities make it difficult to directly compare commodities, as U.S. manufacturers shoulder higher costs to comply with regulations, while foreign manufacturers benefit from fewer restrictions. As a result, domestic manufacturers and distributors struggle to compete on price, which is one of the reasons tariffs are viewed as protecting national strategic interest.
Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, in a CNBC interview today from Davos, Switzerland, where the World Economic Forum is taking place said, “I would put in perspective: If it’s a little inflationary, but it’s good for national security, so be it. I mean, get over it.”
Citation: www.cnn.com
Tariffs are not new to Trump’s strategy. The trade war with China in 2018 established a framework for using tariffs to gain leverage. This latest round builds on that approach, with broader goals for economic influence. Trump has proposed a 10% tariff on Chinese goods. The reasoning ties to China’s fentanyl production and export practices.
This decision follows conversations with China’s President Xi Jinping. Trump urged stricter measures against fentanyl production and shipping, linking it to broader trade concerns. American businesses already face up to 25% tariffs on many Chinese imports. These new fees would add further strain to supply chains, raising prices for consumers. However, it will promote domestic manufacturing and bulster this important sector of the economy.
Mexico and Canada are also in Trump’s sights. He plans to impose 25% tariffs on goods imported from these neighboring countries. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has expressed concerns saying that Canada supplies vital materials like oil, steel, and lumber. He went on to claim that the U.S. Tariffs could disrupt this trade and raise costs for American industries.
Both nations aim to avoid direct trade conflict while protecting their economies from potential damage. Trump’s tariffs serve multiple purposes. They are designed to pressure trade partners, reduce deficits, and address what he views as unfair practices. Tariffs also play a role in domestic revenue generation. They are a tax on imported goods, and higher tariffs mean more money for government programs. Economists warn of potential downsides, including higher consumer prices. Some argue that the inflationary effects could complicate the Federal Reserve’s plans for interest rate cuts. Let's explore that further now.
What does the data say concerning Tariffs?
The ISM Manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) is a key economic indicator that measures the health of the U.S. manufacturing sector. Compiled through surveys of supply chain executives, it tracks new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries, and inventory levels. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while a reading below 50 signals contraction. As a barometer of economic activity, the PMI provides valuable insight into broader economic trends and business conditions.
Since the second half of 2022, the ISM Manufacturing PMI has been in contraction territory, reflecting ongoing struggles in the manufacturing sector. Factors such as high interest rates, which increase borrowing costs for businesses, and weaker global demand have weighed heavily on production. Tariffs, while aimed at protecting domestic manufacturing, could potentially exacerbate these challenges by raising input costs, further pressuring profit margins. Critics argue that higher tariffs could contribute to inflation, limiting the Federal Reserve’s ability to lower interest rates and support broader economic growth.
A strong dollar has also added to manufacturers' woes, echoing the environment during Trump's 2017 inauguration. A strong dollar makes U.S. exports more expensive and imports cheaper, reducing competitiveness for domestic manufacturers. In 2017, the dollar weakened after initial strength leading into the Trump inaguration, providing a temporary boost to manufacturing by making exports more affordable and imports pricier. A similar trend today could aid the sector, but its timing and magnitude remain uncertain, leaving manufacturers navigating a complex and challenging economic environment.
A strong dollar is closely tied to domestic interest rates, as higher rates make U.S. financial assets more attractive to global investors. With the Federal Reserve’s benchmark interest rate, or Fed Funds Rate, at elevated levels, there is a strong incentive for multinational corporations and foreign investors to acquire dollars to purchase U.S. Treasuries.
These assets offer a combination of safety and competitive yields, drawing capital inflows that drive up demand for the dollar. For instance, the U.S. 2-year Treasury yield currently sits at 4.295%, significantly higher than China’s 2-year yield of 1.26%. This wide yield differential makes U.S. Treasuries a far more appealing investment, strengthening the dollar in the process.
The Fed’s success in controlling inflation has further bolstered the dollar's appeal. As inflation trends downward toward the 2% target, the relative stability of the U.S. economy enhances confidence in dollar-denominated assets. This dynamic creates a feedback loop: high interest rates attract foreign capital, which strengthens the dollar, making U.S. exports more expensive and imports cheaper. While this helps curb inflation, it poses challenges for domestic manufacturing by eroding competitiveness. This delicate balance underscores the complexity of managing monetary policy while considering its ripple effects on trade and the broader economy.
One bright spot for domestic manufacturing is that it appears to have hit rock bottom after years of sharp declines. Similar to the transportation sector, which shows signs of recovery as reflected in the recent ATA tonnage index, manufacturing seems to be stabilizing. The worst may be over, and the sector is finally showing signs of life. New orders for manufacturing have moved back into growth mode, offering hope for a sustained rebound. This shift signals that demand is returning, which could provide a foundation for manufacturers to rebuild and capitalize on future opportunities.
DXY Will Go Up! Buy!
Here is our detailed technical review for DXY.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The price is testing a key support 107.464.
Current market trend & oversold RSI makes me think that buyers will push the price. I will anticipate a bullish movement at least to 109.437 level.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
DXY SELL ENTRY MODULEThe DXY is currently testing a key demand level. If a further drop is to unfold, I anticipate a valid retest before it taps into the supply OB and continues its descent. Watch for the price to enter our expected zone, confirm the setup, and then execute your trade.
Always set a stop-loss for your trades to protect your capital and manage risk effectively.
Always use proper money management and proper risk to reward ratio.
#DXY 1H Technical Analyze Expected Move.
Head and Shoulders pattern on the 4-H, for DXY US Dollar IndexTVC:DXY This chart shows a clear Head and Shoulders pattern on the 4-hour time frame for DXY (US Dollar Index), which is a bearish reversal pattern. Here's a short analysis:
Key Levels:
The neckline is at approximately 108.000, acting as a crucial support zone.
A breakdown below the neckline would signal further bearish momentum.
Pattern Confirmation:
Wait for a breakout below the neckline, followed by a possible retest, to confirm the pattern.
Bearish Target:
The measured move from the head to the neckline can be projected downward, aligning with the next key support levels around 107.000–106.500.
Invalidation Zone:
If price breaks above the right shoulder high (around 108.800–109.000), the bearish scenario could be invalidated.
Would you like to explore specific trade setups based on this pattern?
Here’s how you can structure trade setups based on the Head and Shoulders pattern visible in the chart:
1. Bearish Setup (Breakout Strategy)
Entry: Enter a short position after a confirmed breakout below the neckline (108.000). Wait for a strong bearish candle close below this level.
Stop Loss: Place the stop loss above the right shoulder high at 108.800–109.000, depending on your risk tolerance.
Take Profit Targets:
1st target: 107.500 (psychological level and near-term support).
2nd target: 107.000 (projected move based on pattern).
3rd target: 106.500 (long-term support zone).
The dollar is very weak, it broke 108.575, now it is considered The dollar is very weak, it broke 108.575, now it is considered neutral
Technical Take: USD Support in Play across Key TimeframesAccording to the US Dollar (USD) Index, the USD finished the week on the ropes, down 1.8%. Despite the growing sense that US President Trump may not live up to the hype of his pre-inauguration statements – placing a question mark on USD upside – technical studies appear to favour bulls.
Long-Term Technicals Favour Bulls
Technically speaking, I have been banging the drum for monthly resistance at 109.33 for quite some time now, which, as you can see, recently entered the fray and held ground. For anyone interested, I am a staunch advocate of yearly opening levels, and 109.33 has demonstrated a solid track record as a support and resistance – extended from as far back as 2001. However, while a notable area, several technical factors support USD bulls. This includes the overall trend facing to the upside, clear (local) support at 105.91-107.39, both the 50-month (101.09) and 200-month (91.16) simple moving averages (SMAs) rotating higher (the 50-month SMA has also been north of the 200-month SMA since early 2017), and, finally, the monthly chart’s Relative Strength Index maintaining position north of the 50.00 centreline since 2021 (positive momentum), albeit scraping the threshold several times since 2023. Consequently, it would appear that sellers have their work cut out for them.
Daily and H1 Support Enters the Fight
Across the page on the daily chart, Friday wrapped up the session probing through bids at support from 107.77 (now marked resistance) and touched gloves with the 50-day SMA at 107.58, as well as a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement ratio at 107.24 (note that support is also present nearby at 107.05). Although you could argue that the earlier break of trendline support (extended from the low of 100.18) may fuel further technical downside, current support between 107.05 and 107.58 is not an area to overlook, particularly when it blends with the upper edge of monthly support (107.39). Were buyers to take control here, 107.77 resistance is an obvious hurdle before confirming a bullish scenario on the daily scale, while rupturing support could unearth another support as far south as 105.62.
Shorter-term flow on the H1 chart is in a clear downtrend, consisting of a series of lower lows and lower highs. Given the break of clear lows around 107.70ish (blue oval area), this intensified downside pressure through tripped long positions and fresh breakout selling. I have been monitoring a key support level from 107.25 for a while, and I believe it may be a platform where buyers begin building a position. This is due to where we are trading from on the bigger picture (monthly and daily support) and fresh liquidity available from the break of short-term lows at 107.70. As you can see, together with the H1 support, a 1.618% Fibonacci projection ratio at 106.86 (harmonic traders may recognise this as an ‘alternate’ AB=CD bullish setup) and a 100% projection ratio at 106.84 (equal AB=CD formation) resides below current support, which buyers may use as their lower threshold to construct a support zone with 107.25. We have already witnessed some buying from 107.25 on Friday. Still, if the daily resistance from 107.77 is consumed, this would likely encourage buying and eventually pave the way toward the monthly resistance mentioned above at 109.33, closely shadowed by another layer of daily resistance from 109.53.
Written by FP Markets Market Analyst Aaron Hill
dxy on supportdxy is on support area
by the arrow on chart we can see the final point of Us Dollar
here is a powerful support for dxy and in H4 timeframe it have a upward price Chanell
Increase in U.S. Unemployment ClaimsThe recent data on initial unemployment claims in the United States introduces a note of caution amid an economic outlook that, until recently, appeared robust. Contrary to the narrative of U.S. economic exceptionalism that dominated the first half of January, initial unemployment claims have risen for the second consecutive week, with continuing claims reaching their highest level since November 2021. This increase raises questions about the relative strength of the labor market presented by the December NFP report and its potential impact on the country’s economic trajectory.
Data from the U.S. Department of Labor shows that initial claims increased by 6,000, reaching 223,000 for the week ending January 18, slightly exceeding market expectations of 220,000. Beyond the weekly figure, the standout data point is the rise in continuing claims, which climbed to 1,899,000, marking the highest level in over two years. This increase suggests that unemployed workers are taking longer to find new job opportunities, an indicator warranting close monitoring.
This rise in continuing claims is a figure that deserves attention. Prolonged periods of unemployment could negatively affect consumer spending and confidence.
While this data tempers the optimism generated by the strong December NFP report, it’s crucial to place it within a global context. The U.S. economy, compared to other developed economies, still shows a relatively strong performance. However, this uptick in unemployment claims dampens the narrative of economic exceptionalism.
In the realm of monetary policy, these data points are unlikely to significantly influence the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) in its upcoming meeting, where interest rates are expected to remain unchanged. Similarly, market expectations for 2025 rate cuts remain centered on the second half of the year, with a forecast of a single 25 basis point cut.
The U.S. dollar experienced slight additional downward pressure following the release of this data, adding to the pressures from signs of easing inflation and the absence of targeted tariff measures at the start of the Trump 2.0 administration. The DXY index registered a slight decline of 0.05%.
Market attention will now turn to next week’s FOMC meeting and, in particular, to Chairman Jerome Powell’s remarks. Additionally, uncertainty persists over the potential implementation of punitive tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada, a measure that could have significant implications for trade and the economy.
While it is premature to suggest a trend reversal, this data serves as a reminder of the importance of maintaining constant vigilance over labor market developments and their broader economic impact.
Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
Bullish bounce?US Dollar Index (DXY) has bounced off the pivot and could potentially rise to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 107.16
1st Support: 106.51
1st Resistance: 107.92
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Dollar Index Weekly Recap!U.S. Dollar Index:
•Dollar Weakness: The DXY experienced a decline this week, influenced by Trump’s calls for immediate rate cuts & extreme tariff policies.
DXY SINGLING DANGER!Any Time The Dollar Gets In This Range Bad Things Happen!
With the exception of the 2008 GFC which confirmed we have entered Debt Deflation (Meaning the Gov will need to borrow more and more, faster and faster without any benefit to the real economy). A strong dollar is signaling something very bad is coming.
Gun to head I would guess something like an Asian Currency Crisis. Russian ruble & economic collapse is now a certainty! Russia has lost the war no matter what they are trying to do on the battlefield it is irrelevant as the economy is now suffering from Dutch Disease. (So Much for the BRICS fantasy!)
Most Americans believe a strong dollar is good. They are wrong. Here are a few things to know about a strong US Dollar.
1. A strong dollar weakens exports, costing American jobs as everything America made becomes more expensive to the rest of the world.
2. US Imports increase as everything internationally made becomes cheaper.
3. Acquiring USD as foreign reserves becomes much more difficult and expensive. As exporters to the US have to produce more for less $s.
4. US investment in international currency collapses, forcing inflation, rates higher making borrowing/investment in foreign economies weaker. Leading to a snowball effect.
5. Commodities are traded in USD. As such energy/food to many poor nations will become a problem as they are net importers with already limited access to NYSE:S it will be magnified.
6. Finally (I could go on but I won't you get the point) when everyone leans on one side of the boat it capsizes. Meaning when everyone is running to invest in the US & the dollar.
Techanically how high can the USD go?
-120 is likely. (hopefully not much more)
-Longer term if things get bad enough it can break all-time highs of 165 as we have this massive bottoming inverse HEAD & SHOULDERS in place. CARNAGE!
- What I hope will happen is that it hits previous recent highs of 115 and that will be it for the upside. HOWEVER!
We do have a rising structure that needs to be corrected. As such when it does correct there is a good possibility it tests previous lows.
For now, if you live in the US. enjoy dollar strength and think about how much worse inflation would have been if the $ was weakening. ))
Levels discussed on Livestream 22nd Jan 202522nd January 2025
DXY: consolidating between 108 and 108.20, below 107.80 could trade down to 107 support level. (price should stay below 108.50)
NZDUSD: Buy 0.57 SL 20 TP 80 (hesitation at 0.5750)
AUDUSD: Look for retracement and reaction at 0.6300
GBPUSD: Sell 1.229 SL 40 TP 120 (hesitation at 1.2230)
EURUSD: Buy 1.0480 SL 40 TP 120 (hesitation at 1.0540)
USDJPY: Range bound between 155 and 156.50
EURJPY: Buy 163 SL 40 TP 150
GBPJPY: Do nothing for now
USDCHF: Could trade lower down to 0.9020 support
USDCAD: Sell 1.4290 SL 30 TP 60
XAUUSD: Needs to break 2760 to trade up to 2775 (CHOPPY CHOPPY)
Weekly analysis The coming week is all correction and all rise Weekly analysis The coming week is all correction and all rise
DXY is going to drop !#DXY has a nice pattern the market made a 5 waves like a rising wedge and also a break out with a gap !
I think that this means a correction so we have to look for demand zones as our targets for short positions
ICT/SMC Analysis DXYRight now at Weekly OB+FVG , if today closed bearish then our structure on daily will be bearish... potentially could be retracement/consolidation in the area below ...
DXY at Crossroads? Break in Trend Points to Dollar WeaknessUnless we see a significant rally into Friday’s close, the US Dollar Index (DXY) weekly chart suggests the cycle high may already be in. The current three-candle pattern resembles a textbook evening star, often seen at turning points. An opposite morning star signal in early December proved accurate, as did the evening star in late June last year.
This latest signal is notable, especially as it coincides with a break in the uptrend that followed Trump’s election win. Adding to the bearish case, the RSI (14) uptrend from September has been broken, and while not yet confirmed by MACD, it too appears to be in the early stage of rolling over.
Traders should watch for a potential break of support at 107.75, a level DXY has bounced off in three of the past four weeks. If that level gives way, downside targets include 106.736 and 105.44.
Although not technical, it’s worth noting the market has trimmed expectations for Fed easing this year, dropping from six cuts to fewer than two since September. This shift leaves the dollar vulnerable given how much bullish sentiment towards the US economy is already priced in.
