DXY Clear LiquidityI'll still be going long on USD/XXX pairs as I see we still have room for some more upside on the dollar. Need to be paying close attention this week as we have NFP and election date is approaching. Patience!!!
USDX trade ideas
How does the dollar's strength endure amidst domestic turmoil?
A Resilient Currency
Despite a tumultuous political climate and growing social divisions, the U.S. dollar has shown remarkable strength, particularly in recent months. As measured by Bloomberg's Dollar Spot Index, the greenback has surged approximately 3.1% in October alone. This resilience is surprising, given the erosion of trust in American institutions and the increasing polarization of the country.
Why is the Dollar So Strong?
Several factors contribute to the dollar's enduring strength:
1. Safe-Haven Status: The U.S. dollar has long been considered a safe-haven asset. In times of economic uncertainty or geopolitical turmoil, investors often flock to the dollar as a reliable store of value. The current global landscape, marked by geopolitical tensions and economic volatility, has solidified the dollar's status as a safe haven.
2. Interest Rate Differentials: The Federal Reserve's monetary policy plays a crucial role in influencing the dollar's value. By raising interest rates, the Fed makes it more attractive for investors to hold dollar-denominated assets. As a result, the demand for the dollar increases, leading to appreciation.
3. Global Economic Disparity: The U.S. economy, while facing its own challenges, remains relatively strong compared to many other major economies. This economic disparity can lead to capital inflows into the U.S., further boosting the dollar's value.
4. Global Currency Reserve: The U.S. dollar is widely used as a global reserve currency. Central banks around the world hold significant amounts of U.S. dollars, which helps to maintain demand for the currency.
The Disconnect Between Currency and Country
The dollar's strength can be seen as a paradox, given the growing political polarization and social unrest in the U.S. However, it is important to distinguish between the country's political and social climate and its economic fundamentals. While the former may impact investor sentiment in the long run, the latter has a more immediate impact on the currency.
As long as the U.S. economy remains relatively stable and the Federal Reserve continues to pursue sound monetary policies, the dollar is likely to maintain its strength. However, it is essential to monitor geopolitical risks, global economic conditions, and domestic political developments that could potentially impact the dollar's value.
A Word of Caution
While the dollar's current strength is impressive, it is important to remember that market conditions can change rapidly. A sudden shift in investor sentiment, a change in Federal Reserve policy, or a significant geopolitical event could lead to a decline in the dollar's value.
It is crucial for investors to stay informed about global economic and political developments and to diversify their portfolios to mitigate risk. By understanding the factors that influence the dollar's value and making informed investment decisions, individuals can navigate the complex and ever-changing global financial landscape.
DXY IndexPair : DXY Index
Description :
Completed " 1234 " Impulsive Waves
Break of Structure
RSI - Divergence
Fibonacci Level - 78.60%
Double Bottom as an Corrective Pattern in Long Time Frame
Demand Zone
EUR/USD Selloff CaseGood morning everyone.
Going to try to keep this short and sweet.
DXY, as of about 0830EST, broke through all hourly Camarilla resistance levels. The last being 104.560. The next targets would be at 104.795, 104.833, 104.871, and 104.987.
EUR/USD has broken through first 1HR/4HR support level at 1.0782. Next two levels would be 1.0772, and 1.0762. After these levels are broken. I'll look to trade to 1.07.
Going into this selloff, we were in a bearish symmetrical triangle.
Though I do not rely heavily on indicators, MACD, RSI (both reg. and sto.) are aligning with this downward momentum.
Stop loss around previous around 1.0830 which the hour 200-EMA is peaking under.
The DXY upward pressure is also supported by the election anticipation of Donald J. Trump winning.
Rising 10-year yield is also support the greenback.
BOJ is not looking to hike rates this week.
Listened to a few earnings calls. Everyone is beating earnings so far. VIX is up. Feels like risk-on but keep in mind that the market made a major move up prior to any reports. Folks getting greedy and anxious going into election and big data week.
Let's see if JOLTS today, IJC on Thursaday, and NFP on Friday still show a strong labor market. If so, definitely can forget about a 50 bps cut. 94.8% priced in for a 25 bps cut and 5.2% with no cut.
Of course, like Socrates, I'm objective and humble to accept that it's possible for none of this to happen. If we get a break back about 1.0805, a level got from my brother @ThePipAssassin I'm tracking resistance levels at 1.0825, 1.0851, 1.0877, and 1.0919. If we get anywhere near these, believe I'll be looking for 1.10 because I did identify a FVG to the downtrend in DXY.
Of couse none of this is to be taken as trading or financial advice. I am simple giving you my own analysis. Trade at your own risk and I encourage everyone to do your own research and check my thoughts. Please give feedback. Going to start doing this a lot more. Follow, like, and share por favor. God is love!
DXY bullishIn my opinion
For buy,
4hr close and break above 104.1 target 104.2, 104.5 and 105.2 next high point.
For sell,
4hr close and break below 104 target 103.8, 103.6 and 103.4 low point
Good luck and trade safe
DXY: Local Correction Ahead! Sell!
Welcome to our daily DXY prediction!
We made our analysis today using SMC and ICT trading theories, which, combined with our trading experience all point to the downside. So we are locally bearish biased and the target for the short trade is 104.323
Wish you good luck in trading to you all!
DXY plan 📈 **USD Index Technical Outlook** 📈
The U.S. Dollar Index is approaching a critical resistance level, which previously triggered a substantial bearish response. However, recent price action reveals an inability to push lower, signaling a potential shift in momentum towards the upside.
- Key Level to Watch : 104.500 – A decisive break above this resistance could pave the way for further bullish movement, suggesting renewed strength in the dollar.
- Market Sentiment**: Failure to establish lower lows underscores increasing bullish interest, enhancing the probability of an impending breakout.
Ascending channel in USD may suggest upside breakout. Intraday Update: USD index is respecting the rising trend line which means that the 104.20 level is critical for bulls to hold, a break of the 104.56 level would be a bulls breakout as the trend line from the 2022 highs would be broken.
King Dollar Reigns Supreme: DXY Strategic Outlook🔸Hello guys, today let's review D1 price chart for DXY. We are trading
inside well-defined multi year range, currently closing in on range highs.
🔸Every EURUSD trader need to study this chart and bookmark it in
order to time his entries/exits for EURUSD. Dollar still reigns supreme.
🔸Range lows defined at 100.00 , range highs set at 106.75.
This is the active trading range for DXY since early 2023 it's
well-defined and it's very unlikely that price will exit this range
any time soon so traders should focus on trading based on key s/r
levels on the DXY price chart.
🔸Key Zones: S 100.25 / 101.25 / 102.75 R 105.25 / 106.50
🔸Currently I'm expecting pullback from overhead resistance 105.25
is the critical level where we can expect pullback in DXY, so that's
when you want to also go LONG EURUSD, when DXY maxes out / enters
pullback stage of the cycle.
🔸Recommended strategy position traders: when DXY hits resistance
at 105.25, BUY/HOLD EURUSD, target is 200/300 pips on BUY side for EURUSD. Once the pullback in DXY is over/complete at 102.70, short EURUSD, final target on sell side for EURUSD is 1.0500. Good luck traders!
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RISK DISCLAIMER:
Trading Futures , Forex, CFDs and Stocks involves a risk of loss.
Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Always limit your leverage and use tight stop loss.
DXY (US Dollar Index) Analysis Daily TimeframeDXY is currently sitting at a daily resistance level after a bullish run since last week.
we anticipate a potential move to the downside as the index shows signs of weakening, by creating a Doji candlestick, which indicates market indecision.
Remember: If the US Dollar Index turns bearish, EUR/USD and GBP/USD are likely to show bullish momentum.
Let's take a closer look at these pairs for potential buy setups.
Dollar indexHi traders in daily time-frame in dxy; we have an Engulf itself sign of market direction. Believe me!!
A Bullish Turn: Investors Embrace the DollarA Shift in Sentiment
In a surprising turn of events, hedge funds, asset managers, and other speculators have shifted their stance on the US dollar, moving into bullish positions in the week ending October 22nd. This significant shift, totaling approximately $9.2 billion in long dollar bets, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) compiled by Bloomberg, marks a dramatic departure from the previous week's net short position.
A $10.6 Billion Swing
This abrupt change in sentiment represents a substantial $10.6 billion swing from the previous week, when traders were actively betting against the greenback. The reasons behind this bullish pivot are multifaceted, primarily driven by a confluence of factors, including stronger-than-expected US economic data and heightened demand for safe-haven assets as the US election approaches.
A Recalibration of Fed Expectations
A series of positive economic reports released throughout October has forced a recalibration of previously dovish Federal Reserve expectations. The robust economic indicators have raised the possibility of a more hawkish monetary policy stance from the Fed, which could potentially lead to higher interest rates. Historically, a stronger US dollar has been correlated with higher interest rates, making the greenback an attractive investment for global investors.
Election-Year Uncertainty
As the US presidential election draws near, geopolitical uncertainty and market volatility tend to increase. In such times, investors often seek refuge in safe-haven assets like the US dollar. The dollar's perceived status as a reliable store of value, combined with the potential for increased market volatility, has likely contributed to the recent surge in demand for the currency.
Implications for the Global Economy
The shift towards a bullish dollar position has significant implications for the global economy. A stronger dollar can negatively impact emerging market economies that rely heavily on dollar-denominated debt. Additionally, it can make US exports more expensive, potentially hindering economic growth. However, for countries with strong economic fundamentals and current account surpluses, a stronger dollar can be beneficial.
A Cautious Outlook
While the recent bullish trend in the dollar is notable, it is essential to maintain a cautious outlook. The global economic landscape remains uncertain, and a variety of factors, including geopolitical events, trade tensions, and central bank policies, could influence the dollar's trajectory. As such, it is crucial for investors to carefully consider the risks and rewards associated with dollar-based investments.
In conclusion, the recent shift towards a bullish dollar position reflects a significant change in market sentiment. A combination of stronger-than-expected US economic data and heightened demand for safe-haven assets has driven investors to embrace the greenback. While the implications of this trend for the global economy are far-reaching, it is essential to remain vigilant and adapt to evolving market conditions.
Bearish DXY IntradayThe DXY is showing signs of potential downside pressure on the intraday charts, with recent economic data dampening bullish momentum. The index appears to be overextended after a strong run-up, and a pullback could occur as the market reassesses the U.S. dollar’s strength. I’m looking for a move down to retest support levels below, anticipating continued selling pressure as the index corrects intraday.
DXY: Strong Bullish Bias! Buy!
Welcome to our daily DXY prediction!
We made our analysis today using SMC and ICT trading theories, which, combined with our trading experience all point to the upside. So we are locally bullish biased and the target for the long trade is 104.315
Wish you good luck in trading to you all!
DXY Is Bullish! Long!
Please, check our technical outlook for DXY.
Time Frame: 4h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is testing a major horizontal structure 104.214.
The above observations make me that the market will inevitably achieve 104.676 level.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
US DOLLAR time to sell for real.Hi Everyone!
So the US dollar, has made a good looking second leg short, which would mean maybe finally its time to pullback, god damn. Why so much lies and manipulation coming from the feds.
Levels discussed on 28th October Livestream28th October
DXY: Retracing from top of 104.55, could trade down to 104.20 before retesting high again. Needs to stay above bullish trendline.
NZDUSD: Sell 0.5980 SL 25 TP 65 (Test and reject bearish trendline)
AUDUSD: Sell 0.6565 SL 20 TP 80
GBPUSD: Sell 1.30 SL 25 TP 90
EURUSD: Ranging between 1.0780 and 1.0840, could trade up in smaller timeframe
USDJPY: Retracing, could test 152.50, look for rejection, Buy 153.10 SL 50 TP 200
USDCHF: Buy 0.8705 SL 15 TP 45
USDCAD: Look for possible retrace and reaction at 1.3850
Gold: Likely to fluctuate between 2720 and 2747 while directional bias develops
DXY weekly direction for this weekLooking at the weekly in DXY ,looking for uptrend.
The PL might work as the rejection, the H1 line which you can will act as a support/resistance when market approaching that level.
If the market broke below the PL and H1 near PL. The market have shifted the direction to SELL.
Remember US election just around the corner.
Market will react to the economics events instantly.
So if any spike during this week and next week or rally towards to the upside or downside its normal during US Election season.
Beware with the trade SL when entering the trade. Always manage your RISK %.
DXY D1 - Short Signal DXY D1
Some large market gaps seen across US30 and US100, XAUUSD also gapping to the downside, trading as low as $2725/oz. DXY still remains below our area of resistance and supply, which trades at around 104.500 price. 105.000 would usually be a good technical psychological trading zone, that being said, there isn't much else on that price that would act as any real method of confluence for the moment.
Lets see what happens around this 104.500 price level, we have had a couple of days trading into that zone and a red engulfing candle close on that daily timeframe back on Thursday last week. Could we expect some dumps on DXY this week?
Dollar index bullish momentum continues now at major resistance Dollar index bullish momentum continues now at major resistance level
Viper Sunday Weekly UpdateWeekly breakdown on US30, DXY, Gold, WTI and Forex pairs like USDJPY, GBPJpy
Big news week coming up with NFP
Weekly Recap & Market Forecast $SPX (Oct 27th—> Nov 1st)Market Forecast (Updated 10/27/2024)
**SPX** - Tesla and NFLX started the tech earning season extremely bullish, The rest of the Mag 7 reports this week so there's def going to be volatility.
Next resistance: 5,913 and 5,940
Next support: 5,770, followed by 5,570
Weekly Sentiment: Oversold (Possible bounce week)
**Dollar Index:**
DXY- Canada and china just cut rates, and now ECB is considering a 50 BPs cut. So DXY may continue to see strength but that also puts more pressure for fed to more rates.
Next resistance: 104.60 and 106.10
Next support: 103.20 and 102.60
Weekly Sentiment: Bearish (cross to downside)
**Put to call Ratio: 1.60—> 1.39
Next FOMC date: 11-06-2024**
**Fear & Greed Index: 75—>59**
DXY Trade Idea👀👉 The US Dollar Index (DXY) has retraced and showing signs of upward momentum. We are looking to buy on this 4H pullback. Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any trading decisions.📊✅
