DXY HAS VIOLATED KEY SUPPORT ZONE As DXY has violated key support zone. 94.648 which appears to be the next key level must hold, otherwise we may be approaching the 89 zone.
USDX trade ideas
DXY Is Bearish - But A Retest is Highly ProbableThere is no denying that the overall trend is still bearish. However, price is currently respecting an H4 demand zone - which might continue to apply pressure to the upside for a minor correction.
Of course, if this correction does not happen and the H4 demand zone breaks, then we continue to ride the trend to the downside and all the way to the next weekly TF demand zone.
#TheTrendIsYourFriend
DXY Update: Monthly Low Retest on the RadarIn our previous update, we mentioned that our target had been reached and even noted the potential for higher prices. However, we also emphasized the need to wait for fresh signals at that point. After hitting the target, the price faced a sharp drop followed by another sell-off rally.
At the current level, we’re seeing a slowdown in DXY’s selling momentum. However, this alone isn’t sufficient to determine direction. While momentum may be fading, if sellers remain dominant, we’ll see bearish signs on the chart. If buyers regain control, bullish signs will emerge. With this straightforward logic in mind, we’re currently watching for a potential return to the fractal low level at 97.921, which was swept on the monthly chart.
Since it’s monthly close day, sharp intraday pullbacks may occur. As July opens, we believe there’s a possibility of a retracement toward the 97.921 level.
We’ll share any volume-based confirmations in the comments under this post.
Dollar Bullish Correction To $103 - $105While we expected to see some Dollar upside in Q2, the economy was in such a bad state that the Dollar could not hold its value. Since the start of 2025 the Dollar is down 12% and this is only the beginning.
I believe we will see more downside in the future. But for the coming quarter there is a chance for the Dollar to get some breathing space & recover in the short term. Overall, the trend of the Dollar remains bearish, so what we want to keep an eye on is small pumps (short term recovery) into price zones which will allow us to short the Dollar back down.
I want to see a dip lower towards $96 - $94 before sellers lose bearish momentum. If this move takes place, then we can slowly see buyers step back into the market & start pushing back to the upside. Once price hits our ‘Supply Zone’ of $103 again, it’ll give us a more clear indication of what the Dollar will do next; whether that’s a longer term uptrend or a continuation to the downside.
KOG - DXYQuick look at the Dollar index.
We've applied the red boxes to it and and we'll wait for the defence to break. If we can break this upside, our target level to the dollar is way up.
As always, trade safe.
KOG
Skeptic | Weekly Watchlist : DXY Triggers & Pro SetupsLast week, DXY played out our bearish scenario perfectly, breaking the short trigger at 98.530 and delivering a strong downward move . With Higher Wave Cycle (HWC) and Minor Wave Cycle (MWC) now bearish, I’m leaning heavier on short positions with tighter risk management. Let’s break it down with no FOMO, no hype, just reason. 📊
Daily Timeframe: The Big Picture
The key support at 98.801 was decisively broken, and we’ve confirmed below it—the major trend is now fully bearish. The next daily support lies at 96.478 , but I expect range-bound action early this week, especially after last week’s big move. Patience is key—let the market form a clear structure before jumping back in.
Key Insight: The bearish trend is locked in, but early-week consolidation is likely. Wait for the market to signal its next move.
4-Hour Timeframe: Long & Short Triggers
Zooming into the 4-hour chart, let’s pinpoint Low Wave Cycle (LWC) and triggers for long and short setups:
Short Trigger: Break below 4-hour support at 96.995 , confirmed by RSI re-entering oversold. Want to wield RSI like a pro? Check out my RSI Masterclass —it’s a game-changer! 😏
Long Trigger: Break above resistance at 98.215 . This is riskier since it’s against the bearish trend—set a wider stop-loss and take profits quickly. Why? HWC and MWC are bearish, so the first uptrend wave risks stop-loss hunts or fakeouts. I’ll drop an HWC/MWC/LWC guide soon to optimize entries, stops, and more—stay tuned!
Pro Tip: For longs, expect volatility in the first wave. Shorts align with the trend, so they’re the safer play—focus on 96.995.
Final Vibe Check
This Weekly Watchlist sets you up to trade smarter, not harder. DXY’s bearish momentum is our focus, but patience will unlock the best setups. I’ll keep you updated daily as markets evolve. Protect your capital—max 1%–2% risk per trade, no exceptions. Want the HWC/MWC/LWC guide or another pair? Drop it in the comments! If this watchlist sharpened your edge, hit that boost—it fuels my mission! 😊 Stay disciplined, fam! ✌️
💬 Let’s Talk!
Which setup are you eyeing this week? Share in the comments, and let’s crush it together!
DXY Weekly ForecastDXY Weekly Forecast
- Go for up move if setup given
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I’ll be sharing high-quality trade setups for a period time. No bullshit, no fluff, no complicated nonsense — just real, actionable forecast the algorithm is executing. If you’re struggling with trading and desperate for better results, follow my posts closely.
Check out my previously posted setups and forecasts — you’ll be amazed by the high accuracy of the results.
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USDX-BUY strategy 6 hourly chart Reg. ChannelThe index is near the bottom of the channel and indicators are positive.
It worthwhile to look at this carefully, as it will help us in deciding on the other pairs. The current support is a bit lower than the close 97.26 and we can expect 98.30-98.60 area as our objective.
Strategy BUY @ 97.00-97.40 and take profit near 98.50.
DXY ANNALSIS OUTLOOK BULLISH POSIBLE MOVEWS 28/6/2025strong buy 97.000
buy 96.800
going on bullish moves
buyers and sellers
ready to new months new week's
buy 97.000
take profit 97.400
take profit 97.800
take profit 98.500
stop los 96.600
DXY Risk Reversal Blueprint: Monthly Chart Analysis
The DXY is currently 6.5% above the midpoint of a critical confluence zone ("the box") on the monthly chart, where multiple trendlines and a key 50%/61.8% Fibonacci retracement level align to form a powerful support/resistance area. The monthly timeframe amplifies this zone’s strength, with price repeatedly respecting these trendlines (marked with arrows), confirming their reliability. The recent large retracement in the DXY signals a potential major move as it approaches this mega support. In 2017 and 2020, the DXY entered the box, consolidated for ~300 days, and then reclaimed higher, resuming an upward trend. I expect a similar pattern this time: a 6.5% drop to the box’s midpoint (aligned with the 50%/61.8% Fib zone), followed by ~300 days of consolidation and an upside breakout, potentially signaling a market top for risk assets. This high-conviction setup serves as a blueprint to de-risk and guide portfolio decisions, such as trimming or adding to positions in stocks and crypto. Given the DXY’s inverse correlation with risk assets, a move into the box could favor accumulating risk asset positions, while an upside reclamation could prompt trimming to reduce exposure. Once the DXY nears this mega support, I’ll analyze lower timeframes (e.g., weekly, daily) for bottoming signals to confirm the reversal. Monitoring price action, volume, and candlestick patterns near the box is crucial for precise timing.
#DXY #TechnicalAnalysis #Fibonacci #Stocks #Crypto #HighConviction
DXY 4Hour TF - July 6th, 2025DXY 7/6/2025
DXY 4hour Bearish Idea
Monthly - Bearish
Weekly - Bearish
Dailly - Bearish
4hour - Bearish
All timeframes are suggesting we are sitll very much bearish. Going into this week we can spot two scenarios that will consider DXY either bullish or bearish.
Bearish Continuation - Ideally we can see price action stay below our 97.500 resistance zone which is also our 38.2% fib level. Look for price action to reject 97.500 with strong bearish conviction. This will most likely confirm a bearish dollar for the week ahead. Keep in mind, price action can push up to the 98.000 zone and still remain bearish.
Reversal - This is the less likely move for the week ahead but not impossible. For us to consider DXY bullish again on the 4hour timeframe we would need to see price action push above our 98.000 resistance area with a confirmed higher low above. Look for strong bullish rejection above & off of 98.000 acting as support. This is the first step for DXY in becoming bullish again.
DXY 4hour TF - June 29th, 2025DXY 6/29/25
DXY Bearish Idea
All significant timeframes (monthly,weekly,daily 4hr) appear bearish for now.
Last week on June 25th, 2025 we saw price action break through our 98.000 zone confirming more bearish movement. This week we have two likely options that we will wait for confirmation on.
Bearish Continuation - Ideally we keep with the trend and look for lower highs below 98.000 for further confirmation. If we can spot rejection from this zone it is likely we will see DXY continue bearish for the week ahead.
Reversal - This is less likely but still possible. Price action could punch back through the 98.000 resistance and begin retesting previous highs. If this happens look for candlestick confirmation above 98.000 and expect a more bullish DXY for the week ahead.
DXY This is a strong increase in short positions (more than double).
DXY Sentiment: Bearish
Momentum: Increasing bearish pressure
(Speculators are more confident the dollar will weaken)
Dollar Index (DXY) Bearish Trend IntactThe Dollar Index (DXY) cycle, originating from its September 2022 peak, remains incomplete and exhibits a bearish outlook, signaling potential for further declines. The descent from the May 29, 2025 high is currently unfolding as a five-wave impulse pattern. From this high, wave ((i)) concluded at 98.35, followed by a corrective rally in wave ((ii)). The rally formed as an expanded flat, peaking at 99.43 as depicted on the one-hour chart below.
Subsequently, the Index extended lower, forming a nested structure. Within this decline from wave ((ii)), wave i bottomed at 97.7, with a corrective wave ii rally reaching 98.2. Wave iii then drove the Index lower to 97, followed by wave iv peaking at 97.49. The final leg, wave v, completed at 96.37, marking the end of wave (i). Currently, a corrective rally in wave (ii) is underway, aiming to retrace the decline from the June 23, 2025 peak. This rally appears to be unfolding as a zigzag pattern, with wave a concluding at 97.15 and wave b dipping to 96.69. Wave c is expected to target the 100%–161.8% Fibonacci extension of wave a, projecting a range of 97.45–97.9.
Should the Index reach this zone, it may encounter selling pressure, potentially leading to further downside or a three-wave pullback. As long as the pivot high at 99.4 remains intact, any rally is likely to falter in a 3, 7, or 11-swing structure, reinforcing the bearish bias for additional declines.
USD Index preparing for fresh YTD lows?As shown on the daily chart of the USD Index, the currency has been biased to the downside for most of this year and recently met with 1M support at 96.80. This has caused the Index to modestly rebound and retest a 6M resistance at 97.39. Given this level's significance and trend direction, sellers could show from 97.39 and refresh year-to-date lows towards 1Y support at 95.67.
- FP Markets Research Team
Dollar Index Bearish to $96The DXY has been in a downtrend for a while & that bearish pressure is not over yet. I expect more bearish downside towards the $96 zone, before we can re-analyse the market for any signs of bullish takeover.
⭕️Major Wave 3 Impulse Move Complete.
⭕️Major Wave 4 Corrective Move Complete.
⭕️Minor 4 Waves of Major Wave 5 Complete, With Minor Wave 5 Yet Pending.
DXY QUITE BEARISH ON WEEKLY DXY might just drop to previous low of May 2021 at the 89 if this weekly downtrend continues
Why I haven't posted this week:Hey all,
So, for those of you who watches my videos and market commentary will have noticed that I haven't posted anything this week, event though there were some awesome opportunities to highlight and discuss.
The reason for this is because I am currently conducting work training and was unable to record, however, rest assured that I'll be back next week to break down these markets with you and take advantage of the opportunities lining up.
Up until then keep well and bye for now
Long-term view for DXY!The current market sentiment isn't favorable for the dollar, but it still presents a good buying opportunity for long-term investors—especially for those looking to purchase USD from exchanges without using leverage or taking on trading risks.
The Bessent Effect Explained: Weaken the Dollar The Bessent Effect Explained: Weaken the Dollar
There’s no coincidence that the U.S. dollar has had its worst first half of the year since the dawn of free-floating currencies in the 1970s. And if anyone knows how currencies tick — or unravel — it’s Scott Bessent, the man who once stood behind George Soros during the legendary short of the British pound in 1992. Now, three decades later, Bessent sits at the helm of the most powerful economy in the world, steering the U.S. Treasury through a historic moment: where America is trying to boost exports, undercut foreign currency manipulation, and lighten the crushing weight of debt — all while keeping inflation from boiling over.
Of course, no Treasury Secretary will ever say “we want a weaker dollar”, but if one wanted to do it strategically, they'd need to be part economist, part hedge fund manager and part illusionist.
Enter: The Bessent Effect.
📊 Charting the Decline
• After Election Day (BLUE LINE), the DXY marched upward, peaking near 109 — a reflection of market optimism or a dash of geopolitical anxiety.
• By Inauguration Day (REDLINE), that trend began to unwind. Investors started to squint at the fiscal roadmap and didn't love what they saw.
________________________________________
Debt Strategy Rhetoric: PURPLE LINE
In early February, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent addressed the U.S. debt issuance strategy. While he openly criticized his predecessor’s reliance on short-term debt, his first major move was paradoxical: he continued that very approach, opting to maintain a heavy focus on short-term issuance while holding off on extending maturities. This subtle decision screamed one thing for markets: rollover risk. What if rates stay high? What if inflation persists? What if buyers disappear?
Result? The dollar started sliding faster.
________________________________________
Liberation Day: YELLOW LINE
On April 2, “Liberation Day” tariffs were announced. Potential retaliation from China and Mexico, and now you've got cross-border chaos. Trade wars spook global markets, slash demand for U.S. assets, and drive capital into gold and foreign currencies. The dollar’s dominance doesn’t vanish overnight — but the cracks begin to show.
________________________________________
Easing of SLR Announced: PINK LINE
On May 23, just when the DXY needed a break, Bessent went on Bloomberg and said, “We are very close to moving” on the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR). Translation? Banks may soon face eased capital rules, making it easier for them to buy Treasuries.
Markets took it as regulatory backdoor stimulus — a shadowy workaround to support Treasury demand without triggering money printers. But it also raised fears about systemic risk, inflation, and policy overreach. The DXY barely blinked before continuing its methodical march lower.
________________________________________
But What If...
What if Bessent’s moves aren’t missteps, but part of a calculated devaluation strategy? A weaker dollar makes U.S. exports more competitive, revives domestic manufacturing, and reshapes global trade dynamics. By subtly bending the rules (instead of breaking them), Bessent may be re-engineering the dollar's role—less as a global anchor, more as a tool for national advantage. By easing the SLR, he may have discovered a subtle way to bring down the long end of the yield curve.
If it’s not currency destruction. Maybe it’s precision macro strategy?
________________________________________
What’s Next?
Sure, the DXY might bounce a little — even bad news needs a break. But what could drive it even lower?
How about the loss of Federal Reserve independence?
Luckily, that’d only happen if there were whispers of a “shadow Fed chair” waiting in the wings. But that’s just conspiracy talk... right?
Follow on X: @TheAlphaView
just slightly kidding, yes or no DXY MONTHLYjust slightly kidding, yes or no DXY MONTHLY\
bullish. so very bullish
let us know!
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U.S. dollar index DXY analysis- daily time frame ✅ U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) Analysis — Daily Timeframe
👤 A TVC:DXY trader’s perspective:
When I look at this chart, several key points immediately stand out:
1️⃣ Long-Term Trend
On the weekly and daily timeframe, the major trend has turned bearish after peaking around 114. We see a clear series of lower highs and lower lows confirming the downtrend.
The sharp rally from 89 to 114 in the past was a strong impulsive move, which is now undergoing a deep correction. Currently, price is hovering around a major historical support near 96.
2️⃣ Key Support Zone
The current price near 96.7 is sitting right at a significant support area that has triggered considerable buying interest in the past.
If this support decisively breaks, the green zone marked as DD (around 93–95) represents a strong long-term demand zone and will likely be the next liquidity target for buyers.
3️⃣ Resistance (Supply Zones)
The four red-marked 4HR zones between 97 and 101.9 clearly show significant supply zones where sellers have stepped in on lower timeframes.
Should the price attempt a bounce from current levels, these resistance areas may act as a strong barrier to further upside.
4️⃣ Price Structure and Liquidity
Looking more closely, the market seems to be moving from a consolidation phase toward lower support liquidity. That means there is a high probability of a liquidity grab toward the 93–95 area before a potential fresh bullish leg.
At higher levels, unless the price can break and hold above 98 and then 100, we cannot confirm a trend reversal.
🔹 Summary
✅ Overall downtrend remains dominant
✅ 96–97 is a critical support zone
✅ A break below this support targets 93–95
✅ Trend reversal only possible with a confirmed break and hold above 98, and then 100–101
✅ The 4HR resistance zones (97–101) are strong hurdles for any bullish retracement
✅ As long as price remains below 98, any rally is likely just a corrective move
⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell. All trading decisions are solely your own responsibility.
