Dollar Bullish BiasThe USD Index will start rallying from the double bottoms. We want to see price rise quickly from Mon 27th Jan, 2025.
USDX trade ideas
The DXY broke up in October and pin point nailed the 702 After the DXY broke up in october, and markets have been bleeding for almost two months (expect from the election hype in november) the DXY just hit the 702 retracemnt and turned around. Expect it to re visit the lows. IF markets are booming under this retracemnt i expect the dxy lows to hold, and reverse to the up side when markets collapse on them selfs.
DXY Will Move Higher! Buy!
Here is our detailed technical review for DXY.
Time Frame: 12h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is approaching a key horizontal level 109.412.
Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 110.871.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
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DXY on high time frame
"Regarding DXY, the price has reached the (FVG) on the monthly chart and is displaying signs of rejection. On the daily timeframe, candle formations indicate bearish momentum."
If you have any specific questions or if there are particular aspects you would like me to focus on, feel free to let me know!
EUR/USD: My walk of shameHello traders
I am still long AUD/JPY from 96.96 as mentioned before.
So, why the shame?
Because I missed out on the EUR/USD bounce to 1.0277, the after NFP print high and also close to a breakdown point.
I am located on the USA west coast, so by 2pm, I tune out because conditions become extremely liquid when NZ opens, with spreads of up to 9 points on EUR/USD and up to 30+ points on JPY/major pairs.
I therefore missed out on the bounce to short EUR/USD as NZ and presumably early bird Tokyo traders became active, completely forgetting that they were not trading during NFP'S.
But I had a good workout at the gym.
I did go short at 1.0255 though with a stop above 1.02777. Lesson learnt. Don't make assumptions. And I am not too hard on myself because I gave up trading NFP releases a long time ago.
Fundamentally, Euro is still on the backfoot and I expect at least a retracement to 1.0192 on the 4hr chart.
The release of USD CPI will be the highlight of this week.
Keep in mind that both Central Banks are making back to back rate decisions in about two weeks+
We may become rangebound up until then. Watch those Bollinger Bands.
Best of luck all.
DXY correctioncompleted the Elliot 5 waves. as you can see exactly based on it moved.
it would start the correction for ABC wave. after confirmation we will proceed to hunt it.
DXY Possible ideaDXY has been bullish for quite some time now. From what we can see, it has been breaking highs with momentum. It has recently retraced back just above an unmitigated demand zone, where lots of liquidity is currently hovering above. It could use this liquidity to fuel its move to the upside after it mitigates this demand area, breaking the latest weak high that awaits a liquidity run.
Global Markets Show Moderate OptimismGlobal markets closed the week with a tone of moderate optimism, driven by President Trump's statements at the World Economic Forum, where he advocated for an immediate reduction in interest rates and a softer approach to imposing tariffs on China. However, uncertainty regarding the trade and fiscal policies of the new U.S. administration, coupled with mixed economic data, kept investors cautious.
Stock indices record weekly gains
Major global stock markets ended the week in positive territory, with the S&P 500 reaching new all-time highs. Optimism fueled by Trump's remarks, along with strong corporate earnings, boosted stocks. The German DAX extended its winning streak to nine consecutive days, while the French CAC 40 reached its highest level in seven months. In Asia, Hong Kong's Hang Seng posted weekly gains thanks to Beijing's support for the stock market.
The dollar weakens against stronger counterparts
The U.S. dollar weakened against major currencies, hitting a one-month low. The strength of the euro, British pound, and Oceanic currencies reflected uncertainty surrounding Trump's policies and optimism from economic data in Europe and other regions. The Japanese yen also appreciated following the Bank of Japan's decision to raise interest rates.
Key movements in Latin America
In Latin America, the Brazilian real appreciated to an eight-week high, supported by foreign direct investment inflows and easing inflationary pressures. The Colombian peso also strengthened, while the Mexican peso posted significant weekly gains. However, Mexico's economic activity slowed more than expected in November, raising concerns about the recovery pace of Latin America's second-largest economy.
Mixed trends in commodities
Gold approached its all-time high, driven by the weak dollar and Trump's comments on interest rates. Silver also appreciated, while copper showed operational weakness due to supply concerns. Oil recorded a weekly decline due to Trump's pressure to lower crude prices.
Economic data and monetary policy
Economic data released during the week painted a mixed picture of the global economy. Private sector activity in the Eurozone unexpectedly expanded, while German manufacturing contracted at a slower pace. In the UK, services sector activity exceeded expectations, though employment growth remained weak.
Regarding monetary policy, the Bank of Japan raised interest rates and hinted at further increases. The European Central Bank is expected to cut rates next week, while the Bank of England may follow suit in February. The U.S. Federal Reserve meets next week, and while rates are expected to remain unchanged, investors will closely monitor signals regarding future policy directions.
Key factors to watch in the future
Markets will closely follow the Trump administration's policies, particularly regarding international trade and fiscal policy. The trajectory of the global economy, decisions by central banks, and geopolitical tensions will also be critical factors to watch in the coming weeks.
In summary, global markets remain in a state of cautious optimism. Mixed signals from the Trump administration, economic data, and uncertainty about the future of the global economy keep investors on alert.
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The dollar started correcting the fifth wave towards 0.618. He The dollar started correcting the fifth wave towards 0.618. He feels confident.
DXY Long term Bullish biasWhy the Dollar Index is Likely to Rise in the Near Term:
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is poised for potential gains in the near term, driven by a combination of factors:
Strong U.S. Economic Data: Recent economic reports show resilient U.S. growth, with solid GDP numbers and strong labor market data supporting the dollar’s upward trajectory.
Fed's Hawkish Stance: The Federal Reserve remains committed to combating inflation, keeping interest rates elevated and signaling further tightening if necessary. Higher rates generally make the dollar more attractive to investors.
Global Risk-Off Sentiment: Increasing geopolitical tensions and market uncertainty often push investors toward the U.S. dollar as a safe haven asset. This trend tends to drive up demand for USD during times of global instability.
Euro Weakness: As the Eurozone faces its own economic challenges, including inflation concerns and weaker growth prospects, the Euro may remain under pressure, providing additional support to the dollar.
Given these factors, the dollar appears well-positioned to strengthen in the short term, likely driving the DXY higher.
US Dollar Bearish Trend: Key Insights Analyzed**Is the US Dollar Heading for a Bearish Turn? Key Insights to Watch**
The US dollar has been a hot topic lately, and for good reason. With Donald Trump back in office and the motto being *AMERICA FIRST*, the currency’s trajectory is under scrutiny. As many of you know, the Trump administration has historically favored a weaker US dollar and lower interest rates. The rationale? A weaker dollar can boost exports, while lower rates are seen as a way to stimulate economic growth. This approach was a hallmark of Trump’s first term, and it looks like we might see a repeat.
Another key factor to consider is Trump’s focus on increasing crude oil and natural gas production. Higher energy output could lead to lower energy prices, which would further support economic growth. However, this could also weigh on the dollar, as lower energy prices often correlate with a weaker currency.
Looking back to 2016–2017, when Trump first took office, the US dollar initially surged but then reversed sharply in January 2017, marking the start of a prolonged bearish trend. Fast forward to today, and we’re seeing similar patterns emerge. The wedge formation on the Dollar Index suggests limited upside potential, and a break below key support levels—specifically 108 and 107.58—could confirm that a bearish trend is underway. If those levels fail to hold, the next area to watch would be the 107 to 106 demand zones.
This scenario aligns with what we’ve been discussing over the past few weeks. If the Dollar Index breaks below these critical levels, it could signal the completion of the wedge pattern and the beginning of a new bearish phase for the US dollar.
What does this mean for traders and investors? Keep a close eye on the Dollar Index and watch for those key support levels. A break below them could present significant opportunities, but it’s also a reminder to stay cautious and informed.
What are your thoughts on the US dollar’s trajectory? Do you think history will repeat itself, or are there other factors at play? Let’s discuss in the comments!
#USD #Forex #Trading #Economy #Trump #DollarIndex #Investing #Markets
DXYThe U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is a measure of the U.S. dollar’s value relative to a basket of six major foreign currencies:
• Euro (EUR) – the largest component (~57.6%)
• Japanese Yen (JPY)
• British Pound (GBP)
• Canadian Dollar (CAD)
• Swedish Krona (SEK)
• Swiss Franc (CHF)
DXY rises when the U.S. dollar strengthens against these currencies and falls when it weakens. It is widely used by traders, investors, and policymakers to assess the dollar’s strength in global markets.
DXYDXY - U.S Dollar Index
Order Block
Falling Wedge as an Corrective Pattern in Short Time Frame
Break of Structure
Completed " 12345 " Impulsive Waves
Change in Characteristics
My Analysis of the DXY ChartLooking at this chart, the DXY is moving within an ascending channel defined by the two white trendlines. Based on my analysis, there are a few key levels to watch, especially the Fibonacci retracement levels.
First, if the price starts to drop from the upper boundary of the channel, it is likely to retrace down to the 0.61 Fibonacci level. This is an important support zone, and the price might bounce back up from here.
However, if the 0.61 Fibonacci level doesn’t hold, the price could continue falling towards the 0.78 retracement level. This level is a much stronger support and could trigger a significant reversal if the price reaches it.
Finally, the lower boundary of the channel, marked by the white trendline, serves as the ultimate area of support. If the price falls this far, there’s a strong chance it will bounce back upward within the channel.
This analysis highlights the key zones where the price is likely to react and helps identify the next potential moves for the DXY
#DXYGiven the filling of both liquidity shown in the large FVG area where we previously saw a good pump, it seems that the dollar index will once again have the ability to rise to fill the gap that has arisen.
USDX has formed a head and shoulders topOn the 4-hour chart, USDX forms a head and shoulders top pattern, and the downside risk in the future is relatively large. At present, we can pay attention to the downtrend line resistance near 109.0. If the rebound is not broken, it is expected to continue to fall, and the downside target is 106.7-107.2 area.
Dollar Index Technical AnalysisThe Dollar Index (DXY) has reached a key weekly resistance zone around 110.26, as shown in the chart. Here's a breakdown of the technical analysis:
Resistance at 110.26:
This level has acted as a critical barrier, causing the current pullback. The index has struggled to sustain momentum above this zone, indicating potential exhaustion for bulls.
Trend Reversal Signals:
The large rejection candles at resistance indicate seller dominance. If the weekly close remains below 109, we could see sustained bearish momentum.
Support Levels Below:
105.35–105.66: Key support zone acting as the next likely target for bears.
103.33–103.82: A significant level to watch if the decline accelerates, providing a potential buy zone.
Shift in COT Data:
The bearish shift in the COT index aligns with the resistance rejection, adding fundamental weight to the technical setup.
Outlook:
With Trump’s policy announcements expected soon, the DXY is at a critical turning point. A break below the immediate support at 108.79 could lead to a drop toward the 105 range. Conversely, if bulls defend this zone, we might see a retest of the 110 resistance.
Trade with caution, as geopolitical and policy events may drive volatility in the coming weeks.
DXY RECOVERS AFTER TRUMP’S INAUGURATIONAs markets adjust to the new U.S. administration, “a dawn of a new era," DXY recovers after Trump’s inauguration. After experiencing a decline of over 1%, the index found support around 107.56 and is now trading at 108.40 as of 3:43 PM GMT+4 (Dubai time), marking a 0.61% increase.
From a fundamental standpoint, President Trump's second administration is anticipated to have a significant impact on the U.S. economy, with a strong emphasis on key economic policies. This includes but not limited to his announcement of a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico, effective February 1, 2025, alongside maintaining existing tariffs on Chinese goods.
Additionally, his declaration of a "National Energy Emergency" highlights a push to expand oil drilling and deregulate the energy industry. This initiative aims to achieve energy independence and reduce costs but raises concerns about environmental impact and potential legal challenges.
In terms of immigration, stricter enforcement and increased deportations are expected to affect labor markets, particularly in industries heavily dependent on immigrant workers. This could result in labor shortages and higher production costs.
While these policies aim to stimulate economic growth, they come with potential risks, such as inflationary pressures, trade conflicts, and labor market disruptions. The overall impact will depend on how effectively these policies are implemented and their reception both domestically and internationally.
UPCOMING CATALYST
On Thursday, January 23rd, the U.S. unemployment claims are scheduled for release at 5:30 AM GMT+4, followed by the crude oil inventory report at 8:00 PM. The next day, Friday, will feature the release of Manufacturing and Services PMIs at 6:45 PM, and to close the week, existing home sales and consumer sentiment reports will be released simultaneously at 7:00 PM. These data points have the potential to significantly influence market movements, underscoring the importance of cautious analysis and strategic decision-making.
TECHNICAL VIEW:
From a technical perspective, the DXY is recovering from the previous day's losses, which had strengthened major currency pairs such as EUR/USD, AUD/USD, and GBP/USD. Currently, the index is trading around 108.40, with 108.80 acting as a key resistance level. Given the upcoming data releases, a favorable outcome could propel the DXY above 108.80, with potential targets at 109.09, 109.44, and 109.81 in the coming weeks. However, a correction is still a possibility. Conversely, a negative reading could further weaken the dollar, with potential downside targets at 107.48, the psychological level of 107.00, and 106.56. Analysts suggest that breakouts in either direction are possible, depending on the data's impact.
check the trendIt is expected that a trend change will take place within the current support range and we will witness the start of an upward trend.
Otherwise, the downward trend will continue until the next support range.
$DXY Our outlook for the week is that the price will initially rise to a premium PDA, setting the stage for a downward movement toward the discounted PDA of the monthly range, which we consider our long-term target (DoL).
100 K ANALYSIS.Due to the new president, we will witness a bullish dollar trend back to strong prices like the 2001"s. We're still in the retracement process, so lower prices are expected at least for February.
"Golden Era" - Donald Trumt.
New home sales that affect dollarIf the data realese higher than forecast, dollar may go to bulish but its just become correcton before continue the bearish trend.
