USDX trade ideas
DXY Update - H & S Pattern & FEDDear Friends,
Keynote = Fed Interest Rate Decision: 29th of January.
How I see it:
I've indicated the gap on the 1D TF -
It might be insignificant, or
It might only be filled on the next swing return.
The head and shoulder pattern + 1D candle body
close below key support might indicate further downward pressure.
107.000 to 108.000 is a very big key area of confluence.
A strong "breakout and hold" on either side, will offer
strong confirmation of direction.
Thank you for your time reading my analysis !
DXY Trading Journal DXY Trading Journal
Weekly Analysis
Price is delivering to a premium on the HTF M, W.
Price kissed the HFT .70 level last week, which is also the 75% quarter mark of the M SIBI from 2002. Must be random....lol
Price continued this week to seek lower prices rebalancing inefficient delivered price and take out the clean equal lows. Finishing in a discount wicking to the .618. Fridays candle body stoped on the CE of the W BISI.
Could be break of structure on HTF, or price following algorithmic price theory weaving between premium to discount.
With Price delivering to a discount on the daily range and potential of a institutional quarterly shift, Im going to be patient to read if price is going to bounce up off that .618 or start trending to a bear market.
DXY Will Go Up! Buy!
Here is our detailed technical review for DXY.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The price is testing a key support 107.464.
Current market trend & oversold RSI makes me think that buyers will push the price. I will anticipate a bullish movement at least to 109.437 level.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
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Trading Idea for EUR/USD with Confirmation from DXYThe DXY chart shows a QML (Quasimodo Level) already confirmed through a BOS (Break of Structure). The next step is a return to the OTE (Optimal Trade Entry) zone, where the daily order block (OB) is located. On DXY, we expect a reaction to the daily OB or the 4-hour GAP, signaling further index downside and confirming long entries on EUR/USD.
Scenario for EUR/USD:
DXY reacts to the daily OB or 4-hour GAP, confirming its decline.
This confirmation supports opening long positions on EUR/USD.
Entry on EUR/USD is made at the OTE zone from the daily OB.
An additional entry point is the 4-hour FVG on EUR/USD.
Strategy:
Confirmation: Reaction to the daily OB or 4-hour GAP on DXY.
Entry: Long EUR/USD from the daily OB or 4-hour FVG.
Stop-loss: Beyond the OB boundary.
Take-profit: At the true supply level.
Using DXY’s reaction as confirmation helps minimize risks and improves entry precision.
DXY on high time frame
"Regarding DXY, the price has reached the (FVG) on the monthly chart and is displaying signs of rejection. On the daily timeframe, candle formations indicate bearish momentum."
If you have any specific questions or if there are particular aspects you would like me to focus on, feel free to let me know!
Dollar Index for Next 2 yearsThe Dollar Index (DXY) has been a critical gauge of the U.S. dollar's strength, and its movements are closely monitored by traders worldwide. Based on my analysis, I believe the next two years will bring significant challenges for the dollar, potentially leading to a heavy decline.
In my view, the DXY will struggle to hold above 120, even in the case of temporary fake breakouts or sharp rejections. This level represents a strong historical resistance zone, and any attempt to break higher is likely to face immense selling pressure. However, what’s more concerning is the potential for a deep bearish trend, with the index dropping below 95 during this period.
Several factors could contribute to this scenario. A pivot by the Federal Reserve toward more accommodative policies, slowing U.S. economic growth, and the growing global efforts to reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar in international trade could all weigh heavily on the index. Technically, the long-term charts indicate that the dollar is already facing structural resistance, and a break below key support levels could accelerate the decline.
If the DXY does drop below 95, it could trigger ripple effects across global markets, impacting currencies, commodities, and equities alike. This level represents a critical threshold that could reshape market sentiment and trading strategies.
Disclaimer:
This analysis reflects my personal opinion and is not financial advice. The markets are highly volatile, and unexpected macroeconomic or geopolitical developments could drastically alter this outlook. Always conduct your own research and manage risk carefully when trading.
Let me know your thoughts in the comments—do you see the Dollar Index heading for a crash, or do you have a different outlook? Let's discuss!
#DXY #Forex #DollarIndex #TechnicalAnalysis #TradingView
DXY Possible Daily Formation?This may just be a massive rationalization but let me know what your thoughts are please.
I feel that maybe this is a very sideways H&S, with NFP data earlier today price shot higher into a big daily resistance, thus making me feel it will reject and complete this pattern. Unless of course it continues to break ceilings, then we can give the dollar a new name. Bitcoin.
This is not an idea for marking TPs and SLs i am just curious if fellow traders could see this as a possibility.
Feedback greatly appreciated. Preferably kind feedback lol. Ive noticed trading view minds and ideas are quite aggressive and condescending at times in the replies to others ideas.