DXY 4Hour TF - July 6th, 2025DXY 7/6/2025
DXY 4hour Bearish Idea
Monthly - Bearish
Weekly - Bearish
Dailly - Bearish
4hour - Bearish
All timeframes are suggesting we are sitll very much bearish. Going into this week we can spot two scenarios that will consider DXY either bullish or bearish.
Bearish Continuation - Ideally we can see price action stay below our 97.500 resistance zone which is also our 38.2% fib level. Look for price action to reject 97.500 with strong bearish conviction. This will most likely confirm a bearish dollar for the week ahead. Keep in mind, price action can push up to the 98.000 zone and still remain bearish.
Reversal - This is the less likely move for the week ahead but not impossible. For us to consider DXY bullish again on the 4hour timeframe we would need to see price action push above our 98.000 resistance area with a confirmed higher low above. Look for strong bullish rejection above & off of 98.000 acting as support. This is the first step for DXY in becoming bullish again.
USDX trade ideas
DXY Short From Resistance! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
DXY made a nice rebound
From the lows but will soon
Hit a horizontal resistance
Around 97.900 from where
We will be expecting a
Local bearish correction
Sell!
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Decision Zone for DXY This Week: Around 97.600After a significant downward expansion in DXY, we observed a consolidation around last week's low. This week, the market opened with a pullback.
The first stop for this pullback appears to be the current daily fractal high candle and the weekly bearish FVG on the chart. We can assess potential selling pressure from this area on lower timeframes. We'll be monitoring the wicks within this zone, along with any newly forming FVGs.
If the price breaks above this area, our next points of interest will be the gaps within the zone above the 0.5 swing level, and ultimately the swing high itself as the final target.
Given the current setup, we believe there are promising trading opportunities on EURUSD.
Take care until the next update!
DXY (Dollar Index) longs to shortsThe dollar has been bearish for several weeks, but we’re now starting to see signs of a potential retracement due to price being in oversold territory. Last week, DXY reacted from a key weekly demand level, suggesting that we could see some short-term bullish movement before any continuation to the downside.
I’ll be watching closely for price to either push higher into liquidity or retrace slightly deeper into more discounted demand zones for a cleaner long setup. This would also align with my short setups across other major pairs, making DXY strength a key narrative this week.
Confluences for DXY Longs:
DXY has been bearish for an extended period — now showing signs of accumulation on higher timeframes
Price may retrace upwards to collect liquidity before continuing its macro downtrend
Recently reacted from a major weekly demand zone
Imbalances and liquidity above, including Asia highs, remain untapped
P.S. If price fails to react from any of my current POIs, I’ll patiently wait for new zones to develop and adjust accordingly — always staying aligned with what price tells us.
Let’s stay sharp and crush the week ahead!
We can expect such a move if the event I mentioned in the captioHello friends..
In the analysis we had previously told you about the dollar index on this page, it started a downward trend right from the specified area (you can visit the page)
Now, after a long time has passed since that analysis, we are now in a suitable range in the dollar index.
See, on the weekly time frame, the index number has hit a strong support area, but we should not make a trading decision by seeing this support unit.
As you can see in the image, if the index number suffers in this range, we can expect a turn in the index.
You can change the trading decisions you have had so far in the event of a turn in the index.
This is just a view from our team, do not attach it to your trades.
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#Dollar / #Bitcoin correlation I've previously described the correlation, and it's clear to everyone: a weaker DXY is positive for BTC.
📝Recently, the dollar has grown significantly and seems close to a local maximum (the chart is inverted). This demonstrates the strength of Bitcoin, as it was able to rise even against a strengthening dollar.
💡Imagine its movement when the new administration plans to lower the dollar price like they did last time. I think we will see a similar scenario as in 2017, when the dollar, from a local maximum, begins to provide a tailwind to the movement of assets that trade against it.
DXY LOCAL SHORT|
✅DXY is about to retest a key structure level of 98.000
Which implies a high likelihood of a move down
As some market participants will be taking profit from long positions
While others will find this price level to be good for selling
So as usual we will have a chance to ride the wave of a bearish correction
SHORT🔥
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Relation between DXY BTC TOTAL#📄 Analysis of three price charts and comparison between dates and movement
◀️ So far, the anticipated rise in alternative currencies has not occurred, and the rise that has happened is considered small and weak since the bottom of 2022
📄 In the first price chart, we see the movement of the US Dollar Index (DXY)
🔽 Each time the index breaks below the 100.00 level, it has a path to test 90.00, and this path has been achieved twice before during the periods of 2017 - 2018 and 2020 - 2021, with each time lasting approximately 320 days
◀️ At the moment we are in, there has been a break below the 100.00 level in DXY, and we are currently on day 84 of this break
⭕️ In the first break between 2017 - 2018, Bitcoin moved up by 2128%, and alternative currencies moved up by 3030%
⭕️ In the second break between 2020 - 2021, Bitcoin moved up by 608%, and alternative currencies moved up by 1668%
⭕️ In the current third break, which is still in its early stages, Bitcoin has moved up by 48%, and alternative currencies have moved up by 23%
⌛️ This period may extend into the first quarter of 2026, and it is essential to monitor developments closely with daily and weekly follow-ups
DXY: Bears Are Winning! Short!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse DXY together☺️
The recent price action suggests a shift in mid-term momentum. A break below the current local range around 96.860 will confirm the new direction downwards with the target being the next key level of 96.760.and a reconvened placement of a stop-loss beyond the range.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
Potential USD Strengthening Ahead | DXY vs BTCUSD Outlook
⚡ The DXY has now reached the lower boundary of its long-term ascending channel, a historically significant technical zone where rebounds have occurred in the past.
💡 If this pattern holds, a strong rebound towards the 121 level on the DXY looks probable in the coming months.
What does this mean for BTC?
Historically, a strengthening USD has often resulted in a reciprocal effect on BTCUSD, leading to downward pressure on Bitcoin prices. The chart suggests that if the DXY rebounds as expected, BTCUSD could witness a significant decline proportionate to the USD's strength.
Key Takeaways:
✅ DXY at crucial technical support – rebound likely.
✅ Target for DXY: 121 zone.
✅ BTCUSD may face downside pressure as USD strengthens.
✅ MACD showing early signs of bullish reversal potential for DXY.
Note: This is a technical analysis-based view. Always use risk management and combine multiple factors before trading decisions. For Educational purpose only.
💬 What are your thoughts? Will the USD rally put pressure on Bitcoin again? Share below!
Check the trend It is expected that a trend change will form at the current resistance level and a continuation of the downtrend will form. Otherwise, the continuation of the uptrend to the specified resistance levels will be possible and then there will be a possibility of a trend change at the specified resistance levels.
DOLLAR INDEX The dxy is the measure of the united state dollar relative to basket of six majors foreign currencies, it was originally developed by U.S Federal Reserve in 1973 to provide a trade -weighted average value of the dollar against global currencies.
the six currencies are EURO 57%,JPY 13.6%,GBP 11.9%,CAD 9.1% SEK 4.2% CHF 3.6%
The index rises when the dollar strengthens against these currencies and falls when it weakens ,its used to gauge the overall strength of the us dollar in the global market.
US10Y
THE US10Y ,the treasury note yield is the interest rate the U.S government pays to borrow money for 10 years ,it serves as a crucial benchmark for other interest rates and is a key indicator of the investor sentiment about the economy, in context it reflects the return an investor expect for lending money to the U.S. government for a decade .
the interest is paid semi annually at a fixed coupon rate and the yield moves inversely to bond price; when bond price fall the yield rises, and vice versa .
this have a direct effect on borrowing cost across the economy ,including mortgage rates and corporate loans .
when yield is rising investor optimism is high about the economic growth and inflation ,while failing yield indicates economic caution and recession fear and concern
technical interpretation of the monthly chart
the dxy is in buy back position on ascending trendline line ,but price remains below supply roof and if we get monthly retest of broken demand floor we could see price selling off.
trading is 100% probability.
DXY Weekly ForecastDXY Weekly Forecast
- look for down move when reaching 98.00 level
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DXY LONG TERM ANALYSISI anticipate dollar to trade down towards 80. After which we shall look for longs towards 144. This is a long term outlook.
1. first we trade down towards sellside liquidity at 87.
2. Next key level is the 3 month fair value gap at 84
3. Eventually hitting the 25 DRT of the current dealing range at 80.
4. Then we can look to go long targeting 75 DRT of the parent Dealing Range.
5. We shall be coming here weekly to review and correct course as the market unfolds.
THANK YOU.
DXY July 6 AnalysisDXY
July 6
Parent Bias Bear
WEEKLY ANALYSIS
*Good example to witness price trend for the second week-the pull back I was anticipating did occur just not to the level I had suggested in last Sundays journal
*Note Price wicked to the .70 level on the monthly
*Price took key equal lows and rebalanced a FVG from Feb 22
*Monday/Tuesday Price seek lower prices
*Mid week consolidation-expected
*Thursday price took equal highs I was anticipating
*Friday Asia
*PM session of NY price retraced to close in consolidation
*Thursday expansion to buy side then on Friday reversal
WEEK AHEAD IDEAS
*Price closes in a consolidation on the previous days range 50%
*I suspect that price could seek the minor equal highs/FVG potentially reach for the gap from Thursday possible target should it really expand - this could be Sundays delivery
*could price expand for higher prices beginning of the week
*No news until Wednesday
*Sundays delivery can affect my ideas stay open
USD Index preparing for fresh YTD lows?As shown on the daily chart of the USD Index, the currency has been biased to the downside for most of this year and recently met with 1M support at 96.80. This has caused the Index to modestly rebound and retest a 6M resistance at 97.39. Given this level's significance and trend direction, sellers could show from 97.39 and refresh year-to-date lows towards 1Y support at 95.67.
- FP Markets Research Team