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DXY Potential Bullish Reversal – Target 99.456 DXY Potential Bullish Reversal – Target 99.456 🎯 Technical Analysis Overview: 🔹 Trend Structure: The chart illustrates a recent downtrend, which has been broken as price moved above the descending trendline, signaling a potential trend reversal. 🔹 Pattern Insight: A bullish harmonic pattern is visible (possibly a bullish Bat or Gartley), with the price reacting from the PRZ (Potential Reversal Zone), aligning with key support near 96.500. The market has respected this zone multiple times, evident from the orange highlighted circles showing price rejections. 🔹 Support & Resistance: Support Zone: ~96.500 Breakout Zone: ~96.985 (current consolidation near this resistance) Target Zone: Marked at 99.456, which aligns with previous structure and fib projection. 🔹 Market Sentiment: Price is consolidating after breaking the downtrend, forming a bullish rectangle (accumulation). The green arrows indicate bullish intent from buyers defending support levels. 🔹 Price Action Signal: Formation of higher lows. Break of structure and close above previous highs. Possible breakout pending above consolidation box. 📊 Conclusion: DXY shows bullish potential as it builds a base around strong support. A confirmed breakout above the rectangle could fuel a rally toward 99.456. Keep an eye on volume and confirmation candles for entry. ✅
TVC:DXYLong
by MrStellanSight
Dollar Testing The Channel Support It’s already Friday and the 4th of July, so US holidays are here, which means we could see thinner trading conditions later today. Still, the overall tone remains risk-on since yesterday, supported by better-than-expected Non-Farm Payrolls data and an ISM services reading at 50.8—still in expansion territory. So, there’s some optimism in the market, and this could continue if we get a positive outcome on the tariff front ahead of the July 9th deadline. On the back of strong economic data, US yields are moving higher, but the Dollar Index is trying to come lower. It’s currently retesting the lower trendline of a corrective channel—likely due to the strong rally in US stock indexes, which are keeping the dollar under pressure. On the daily chart, the Dollar Index still looks like it could head to new lows, but that move may not come today if holiday conditions slow down the market. We might have to wait until next week for a clearer breakout. GH
TVC:DXY
by ew-forecast
🇺🇸 Today's U.S. Data: Tariffs Starting to Bite?U.S. Data Journal – July 3, 2025 Today's U.S. economic releases showed a stronger-than-expected labor market, with Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) surprising to the upside, alongside increases in factory orders and a solid ISM Services PMI print. The combination of these indicators points to persistent demand strength across both goods and services. Moreover, the upward trend in factory orders and service sector activity suggests that tariffs are beginning to feed into cost structures, adding inflationary pressure from the supply side. While the labor market remains resilient, the risk is that sticky input costs—partly tariff-driven—may complicate the disinflation narrative and potentially delay any dovish policy shift from the Fed.
TVC:DXY
by mehrshad31
Why I haven't posted this week:Hey all, So, for those of you who watches my videos and market commentary will have noticed that I haven't posted anything this week, event though there were some awesome opportunities to highlight and discuss. The reason for this is because I am currently conducting work training and was unable to record, however, rest assured that I'll be back next week to break down these markets with you and take advantage of the opportunities lining up. Up until then keep well and bye for now
TVC:DXY
by DeanMuller
Dollar Index (DXY) Bearish Trend IntactThe Dollar Index (DXY) cycle, originating from its September 2022 peak, remains incomplete and exhibits a bearish outlook, signaling potential for further declines. The descent from the May 29, 2025 high is currently unfolding as a five-wave impulse pattern. From this high, wave ((i)) concluded at 98.35, followed by a corrective rally in wave ((ii)). The rally formed as an expanded flat, peaking at 99.43 as depicted on the one-hour chart below. Subsequently, the Index extended lower, forming a nested structure. Within this decline from wave ((ii)), wave i bottomed at 97.7, with a corrective wave ii rally reaching 98.2. Wave iii then drove the Index lower to 97, followed by wave iv peaking at 97.49. The final leg, wave v, completed at 96.37, marking the end of wave (i). Currently, a corrective rally in wave (ii) is underway, aiming to retrace the decline from the June 23, 2025 peak. This rally appears to be unfolding as a zigzag pattern, with wave a concluding at 97.15 and wave b dipping to 96.69. Wave c is expected to target the 100%–161.8% Fibonacci extension of wave a, projecting a range of 97.45–97.9. Should the Index reach this zone, it may encounter selling pressure, potentially leading to further downside or a three-wave pullback. As long as the pivot high at 99.4 remains intact, any rally is likely to falter in a 3, 7, or 11-swing structure, reinforcing the bearish bias for additional declines.
ICEUS:DXY
by Elliottwave-Forecast
dollar elliott wave countingdxy is falling since it peaked in Q4 2022 since their last 75bps hike dollar is constantly falling and stocks, gold, bitcoin constantly rising and making new all time high wave W = wave Y (equal in length, 100% projection for wave Y) since starting of the year due to trump tariff dollar is falling this is year in first half dollar saw biggest collapse since end of gold standard now 100% projection target for wave Y at 95 area is big static support level if dxy recover back to 100 area then this will be first sign of reversal
CAPITALCOM:DXYLong
by Sangam-Agarwal
USD Tries to Break the Tide at NFPIt's been a painful week and a half for the USD. Around the June FOMC meeting a hopeful bounce had built as the Fed sounded a bit less-dovish. While inflation remains below their expectations the labor market had held up relatively well, and with the threat of possible inflation from tariffs they didn't seem to be in any hurry to cut rates. But then last week opened with Michelle Bowman saying she supported a rate cut as early as July, and DXY put in a bearish engulfing pattern. And then into the end of Q2 it was constant bleeding as the currency continued to trip down to fresh three-year lows. Interestingly, the shocking miss on ADP data this morning illustrates weakness in the labor market, yet the USD is currently showing its first green day since last week's open. This is likely more due to just how oversold the currency has become but it sets the stage for NFP tomorrow. While that data point is a major driver, it's supply and demand, which is denominated by positioning, that pushes prices. For tomorrow the interest is in a better-than-expected NFP print bringing a short-term squeeze in the USD, after which markets will get a look to see just how aggressive bears remain to be. The big area of interest for this is the prior swing low, at the 97.91 level, which set support in April and then held the lows in June, until the late-month breakdown move. To date that spot still hasn't been tested for resistance and if sellers do get a chance to offer at that level, we get to see how aggressive they remain to be. - js
TVC:DXY
by FOREXcom
### **Bearish Analysis of DXY (U.S. Dollar Index)**### **Bearish Analysis of DXY (U.S. Dollar Index)** The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has recently shown a weak trend, with a prevailing bearish sentiment in the market. The primary factors driving this outlook include: ### **1. Rising Expectations of Fed Rate Cuts** - Recent weak U.S. inflation data (such as May's PPI and CPI) have reinforced market expectations that the Fed may cut rates as early as September. - Morgan Stanley predicts the Fed could implement a cumulative 175 basis points in rate cuts by 2025, further reducing the dollar's appeal. ### **2. Trade Policy Uncertainty** - The Trump administration has recently threatened new tariffs (e.g., 30% on imports) against the EU, Mexico, and other nations, escalating global trade tensions. - Wall Street institutions warn that Trump’s tariff policies could trigger capital outflows, putting additional pressure on the dollar. ### **3. Growing Recession Concerns** - Fears of a U.S. economic "hard landing" are intensifying, particularly due to deteriorating corporate orders, earnings forecasts, and capital expenditure plans, which could weaken the dollar’s safe-haven status. - The expanding U.S. fiscal deficit (reaching $1.36 trillion this fiscal year) is further eroding confidence in the dollar. ### **4. Technical Weakness** - Since the beginning of 2025, DXY has fallen by approximately **8.4%**, marking its worst annual start on record. - The index currently faces key resistance at the **97.80-98.00** range. A failure to break above this level could lead to further declines toward **96.50** or lower. - RSI and MACD indicators suggest weak short-term rebound momentum, maintaining a bearish bias. ### **5. Risk of Capital Outflows** - The U.S. "**899 Asset Tax**" proposal could increase costs for foreign investors holding dollar-denominated assets, potentially accelerating global divestment from the dollar. - Goldman Sachs estimates that the dollar remains **overvalued by ~15%**, leaving room for further depreciation. ### **Outlook** In the near term, DXY’s movement will depend on: - **June CPI Data** (A lower-than-expected reading could reinforce rate cut expectations, further weakening the dollar). - **Trade Negotiation Developments** (Escalating tensions may trigger risk-off sentiment, while easing could relieve dollar pressure). - **Fed Policy Signals** (More explicit dovish guidance could extend the dollar’s downtrend). **Conclusion:** Given multiple bearish factors, the U.S. Dollar Index is likely to remain weak in the short term. Traders should closely monitor key economic data and policy shifts.
TICKMILL:DXYShort
by trade1638