USDX trade ideas
DOLLAR INDEX (DXY): One More Bearish Movement
Dollar Index keeps updating the lows on a daily.
With a strong bearish movement, the price violated a key horizontal support yesterday.
Probabilities are high that the market will continue falling.
Next support - 106.15
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U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) Technical Analysis1. Long-Term Uptrend & Ascending Channel
The DXY has been respecting a well-established ascending channel for over two decades, with price action bouncing between the upper and lower trendlines. This suggests a macro bullish structure, despite periodic corrections.
2. Wave Structure for Clarity
The green waves highlight significant price swings within the trend.
These waves illustrate market cycles of expansion and correction, showing how DXY has moved through phases of strength and retracement.
The current movement suggests a similar pattern is playing out, with a likely correction before the next potential leg higher.
3. Key Price Levels
Resistance at ~113.07: A major historical level where the index has faced selling pressure.
Support Zone (~100-102): The blue area represents a critical support region that has acted as a demand zone in previous corrections.
Lower Trendline (~98): If selling pressure continues, the lower boundary of the channel (~98) could act as the final line of support before a potential reversal.
4. Potential Market Scenario
The price has recently rejected the upper region and is heading toward support.
If the 102-100 range holds, a bounce toward the upper trendline (~113) is likely.
If broken, the next target would be the lower channel support (~98) before a possible long-term recovery.
DOLLAR DXYImpact of Tomorrow's Data on DXY and USD Trade Directional Bias
The upcoming data releases, including Average Hourly Earnings, Non-Farm Employment Change, Unemployment Rate, and speeches by FOMC members, can significantly influence DXY and DXYtrade directional bias. Here's how these data points might impact the markets:
Data Releases:
Average Hourly Earnings (m/m):
Forecast: 0.3%
Previous: 0.5%
Impact: Lower-than-expected earnings growth could suggest a slowing economy, potentially weakening the USD. Conversely, higher earnings could support the USD by indicating wage inflation and potentially leading to higher interest rates.
Non-Farm Employment Change:
Forecast: 159,000
Previous: 143,000
Impact: A stronger-than-expected jobs report could boost the USD by indicating economic resilience. A weaker report might lead to a decline in the USD as it could signal economic slowdown.
Unemployment Rate:
Forecast: 4.0%
Previous: 4.0%
Impact: No change in the unemployment rate is expected, but any deviation could influence market expectations of future monetary policy.
FOMC Member Speeches:
Impact: Comments from FOMC members can provide insights into future monetary policy decisions, influencing market expectations and potentially impacting the USD.
Consumer Credit m/m:
Forecast: $15.6 billion
Previous: $40.8 billion
Impact: A significant change in consumer credit could reflect consumer spending trends and economic health, potentially influencing the USD.
Departments Responsible for Data Releases:
Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS): Responsible for releasing employment data, including Non-Farm Employment Change and Unemployment Rate.
Federal Reserve: FOMC members' speeches are part of the Federal Reserve's communication strategy.
Federal Reserve: Also responsible for Consumer Credit data.
BLS: Average Hourly Earnings data is also released by the BLS.
Impact on EUR/USD:
Strong US Data: If the employment data and earnings growth are stronger than expected, it could lead to a stronger USD, potentially weakening AUDUSD,USDJPY,GBPUSD,USDZAR,USDCAD,EURUSD
Weak US Data: Conversely, weaker-than-expected data might lead to a decline in the USD, supporting EUR/USD,AUDUSD,USDJPY,GBPUSD,
Trading Strategy:
Short EUR/USD.AUDUSD,GBPUSD ,: If US data is strong and FOMC members signal a hawkish stance,
Long EUR/USD,AUDUSD EURUSD: If US data is weak .
Long for the stronghold of King DollarDollar fled crazy when Trump is taking in control. He wants weak dollar, but will the Fed let him achieve his goal??
This is a long term trade advice, I expect dollar will get strong before summer and remain strong towards the end of the year
Key Dollar Upward reversal - beginning 6th March
long term weekly timeframe break of structure to the upside. Price has retraced to fill fair value at the 61.8 retracement. Will rebound up off of the longterm trendline. Entry at the key level with a price action signal. Looking for an hourly break of structure and a 4 hourly engulfing. Happy hunting... TVC:DXY
DXY Trading Journal March 7 Analysis DXY Trading Journal
March 7 Analysis
Price has shown strong willingness to seek lower prices. Showing a willingness to come to the FVG pointed out by ICT which it rebalanced in Thursday’s delivery.
Take aways from tape reading this were when there is a liquidity run in play Price showed no signs of retracement to the session 50 level. It shouldn’t if the underlining premise is bearish.
I suspect the FVG failed.
Today is NFC. Will Price seek lower after 3 strong days of dropping. I will wait to see what price does at the previous days session 50 level. We coming up to the .70 level on the HTF. On the HTF this looks like it could be a measured move. Price broke out of the tight range bound after trading in it for a few years, so will it break sept lows and go lower. We are 3 months into a seasonal trend of bearish conditions.
I note the timing of this drop the week Trump spoke to congress. HMMM
DXY Vs TRUMPDXY Vs TRUMP
Indicator DXY on the MONTHLY/ Dates ATH / Trump at the white house
BTC ATH - Bull 2017 - DIC
BTC ATH - Bull 2021 - NOV
BTC last ATH - Bull 2025 - DIC
Beginning Trump´s 1st period- JAN 2017
Beginning Trump´s 2nd period- JAN 2025
DXY SWING LONG|
✅DXY is approaching a demand level of 103.500
So according to our strategy
We will be looking for the signs of the reversal in the trend
To jump onto the bullish bandwagon just on time to get the best
Risk reward ratio for us
LONG🚀
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USD index $DXY to 100In this blog space we have discussed the FX:EURUSD and TVC:DXY index on 9th Feb. We said it looks like the FX:EURUSD is forming a local bottom, and the chart was showing lot of resilience. And we said that the next stop on FX:EURUSD will be 1.062 which it has recently surpassed. We also prophesized that because 60% of the TVC:DXY is EUR we might see more weakness in USD.
And now we see the TVC:DXY is below its 0.612 Fib retracement level @ 105. In the short term it is heading to 0.5 in the short term @ 102. We have seen that the index always bounced back when TVC:DXY is @ the psychological level of 100. If the TVC:DXY breaks below the support level @ 100 then it might go to 99 and eventually to 95.
But this USD weakness is not bringing any good news to the Stocks and Crypto. We have to wait until we see a final capitulation in $DXY.
If TVC:DXY goes to 95 then FX:EURUSD above 1.15.
the gap closedTVC:DXY CAPITALCOM:DXY
After breaking the trend, which was previously identified, the target areas were reached and the gap was closed.
The bleeding may continue, we are waiting for the behavior at 103, and if the price breaks this area and we do not witness a rebound from here, I think we will continue to decline to 100.
here the chart when the price was at 107 and these areas were pre-defined .
DXY chart Anylisis 1Hour check captain DXY chart Anylisis 1Hour idea 💡
Bearish trande
Use proper money management 🤠
U.S Dollar index technical analysis.U.S Dollar index technical analysis h1 time frame next move possible. Not financial advise.
$DXY 103.6finally at our line in the sand and confluence of 200 ema on the 3 day
wee bounce here then we break the 200 ema and start moving like jagger
first reaction assuming some sort of squeeze of shorts before more downside
DXY (Bitcoin - Alt Season - Bullish) everyone suddenly started posting DXY chart so I figured I should give my 2 cents on it as well.
People are finding hopes in DXY but main charts are still BTC.D and USDT.D
Monthly Chart has the whole picture
Weekly Chart (above) is what interests us
Breaking that Green Macro Trendline will be the 1st step towards success!
remember how yesterday everyone and their mothers were bearish except me?
This drama will continue, ignore the noise...
The US Dollar Index has lost momentumThe US Dollar Index has lost momentum. We previously saw optimism and bullishness around the time of the elections. However, after the new President took office, the signing of numerous executive orders and discussions on tariffs led to a decline in trust in the US dollar. We might see a reaction when prices reaches to to historic election pump.
USD Down, but bounce expected. Intraday Update: The DXY hit the 161% extension of the Jan 27th lows to Feb 2nd highs. It's also the longer term 50% retracement. This "confluence" may allow for a bounce back to the 106.00 level before downside resumption.
Your current most important DXY target until...The first target scenario in my mind for DXY is the Monthly fair value gap.
Market structure is now aligned for that too to play out.
- A monthly bullish gap is present below current price (inside the monthly accumulative range)
- A weekly bullish gap is being disrespected to the downside (indicating the lack of momentum, leaving this range)
- On the daily, price respects and creates bearish PD arrays.
I'm bearish on the higher timeframes, targeting the Monthly fvg, as long as price is closing below the Daily gap outlined in the chart.
(This is not to say that there are no high quality trades on the lower time frames, such as targeting the most recent daily gap to the upside)
Ok be safe byyyyyyy
check the trendIf a trend change occurs within the current support level, the beginning of an upward trend will be likely. Otherwise, the continuation of the downtrend is possible.
DXY March 4 London 2 Marco backtesting the session reactionsDXY
March 4
London 2 Marco backtesting the session reactions
Price came down took sell side liquidity and rebalanced 15M FVG in Asia. Price came up to the range CE and 50 level and rejected. Price had clear targets of sell side liquidity.
Price was weaving in a wick imbalance. Price
At 2 macro Price comes up to the .70 OTE level and into a first presented FVG. Price is so heavy and should be obvious that it is a bear market.
Note- Price did not want to retrace to the previuos range however in backtesting just to the 50 on the RB 50. If truely in a bear market this is a indicator. Touches the 50 and rejects-it should.
Price came through the volume imbalance
Price came through 3 sell stops I had noted.
Price came down to ICT's FVG she noted 3 weeks ago.
Price is respecting the session 50 level.
All great learning.
Very messy chart and it for study
DXY Long-Term Analysis (1988-2024): Post-US Election Price CycleBased on a 36-year historical analysis of the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), a clear cyclical pattern emerges in relation to U.S. election cycles.
Key Observations:
Election Year Impact:
After every U.S. election, DXY tends to move in one clear direction (either bullish or bearish) for the first 1 to 2 years.
Reversal Phase:
Following this initial move, the next 1 to 2 years typically see a reversal, where the price trends in the opposite direction of the first phase.
Consistent Historical Trend:
This pattern has repeated consistently across multiple election cycles since 1988, making it a significant factor to consider when analyzing DXY’s medium-term trends.
Practical Implications:
If the post-election trend is bullish for the first 1-2 years, traders should anticipate a potential bearish shift in the following 1-2 years—and vice versa.
This can be used as a macroeconomic roadmap to align trading strategies with historical probabilities.
Exception: 1996-2000 – Why It Did Not Follow the Seasonal Pattern
The 1996 to 2000 period is the only major exception in this 36-year analysis. Instead of following the typical 1-2 year trend-reversal pattern, DXY remained bullish throughout the entire Clinton second term (1996-2000).
Here’s why this period did not comply with our seasonal analysis:
Unprecedented U.S. Economic Strength ("Clinton Boom")
The late 1990s saw an extraordinarily strong economy, driven by the Dot-Com Boom, technological advancements, and record corporate profits.
Unlike other election cycles where economic slowdowns or policy shifts led to reversals, the U.S. economy kept accelerating, keeping the USD strong.
Federal Reserve’s Tight Monetary Policy (Rising Interest Rates)
From 1997 to 2000, the Federal Reserve aggressively raised interest rates to control inflation.
Higher rates made the USD more attractive, increasing foreign capital inflows and preventing a mid-term reversal.
Global Financial Crises (1997 Asian Crisis & 1998 Russian Default)
These crises caused global capital flight to the U.S. dollar as a safe-haven asset.
Instead of a seasonal decline in DXY, the USD kept rising as investors sought stability in U.S. assets.
Foreign Investment in U.S. Markets (Tech Stock Bubble)
Foreign investors poured money into U.S. stocks and bonds, increasing demand for USD.
This prolonged DXY’s bullish trend, overriding the usual election-based trend reversals.
Conclusion:
The DXY's movement post-elections follows a structured two-phase cycle: initial directional trend (1-2 years) → reversal phase (1-2 years). So you guys can plan your trades accordingly and take advantage of this repeating pattern to maximize profitability.
