The dollar started to rise with the correction of the second wavThe dollar started to rise with the correction of the second wave to complete the rise to the third wave out of the three waves.
USDX trade ideas
DXY BEARISH STILL 107.000Hey there on 2HTF we can see DXY will touch sell zone now and we can expect near go 107.000
1. On DXY limit for bearish level is 109.700 and other support 109.900
2. When the possibly bullish candle will seems there demand support zone
Will be 107.300
We can see some manipulation in these days
Good luck🤞🤞
My DXY updates How does it work?
1. DXY is negatively correlated with spy and bitcoin.
Bitcoin goes 👆 + SPY 👆= DXY 👇
Vix 👆 = Fear = Volatility = DXY👆 OR DXY 👇
I will publish the DXY here as a confluence for entering a trade on ES! and Bitcoin.
The Axis of RESISTANCEI have drawn an imaginary ascending parallel channel. The midline of this ascending channel seems to be acting and a giant Resistance at the moment. Breaking above this resistance level is going to send the DXY flying to the moon, which can drown the stock and the crypto market. On the other hand DXY is struggling to break above this resistance level and it is forming a divergence in the 4H RSI chart. The EMA 150 on the daily chart is pointing to a support at around 105-106 level. The interesting part is that the price chart also agrees that 105-106 level is a strong support area to study. DXY has been crushing the crypto market specially the alt coins for the past few weeks. A break below the ascending channel and a visit to the 105-106 support area will give the stock market and the crypto market the chance to breathe.
DXY Daily AnalysisDxy Trend is upward. we expcet it to reach higher levels.
consider all Support and resistance levels on the chart.
DXY bullish scenarioThe dollar is in a rush to return above 110.00 soon, while the picture suggests that it could continue to 115.00 during this year.
DXYDXY - U.S Dollar Index
Bullish Channel as an channel as an Corrective Pattern in Short Time Frame
Break of Structure
Completed " 12345 " Impulsive Waves
RSI - Divergence
Change of Characteristics
Dollar Index: A Turning Point Ahead?From the recent Commitment of Traders (COT) data, it's evident that the Dollar Index (DXY) has shown significant bullish sentiment in prior weeks. However, as we approach a key resistance zone, there's been a notable shift in the COT index. This drastic change raises the question: what could be driving this potential reversal?
One major event looming on the horizon is Trump’s inauguration in a week’s time. While political shifts often stir the markets, the real focus for traders should be on how the weekly candle closes. A bearish close could signal the beginning of USD weakness in the early part of 2025.
I don't anticipate any major shocks in the stock market this year, but there is the possibility of a sharp correction. If that happens, knowing where to buy will be critical—such opportunities could offer excellent long-term holds for the next 11 months.
For now, I’m watching the DXY closely for signs of exhaustion at resistance and potential bearish momentum in the weeks ahead. Stay sharp and manage risk carefully as this pivotal period unfolds.
What are your thoughts on the DXY and USD trends for 2025? Let me know in the comments!
Dollar breakout means trouble for traditional markets- long consolidation that has been resolved to the upside confirming re-accumulation
- weekly anomalies (white stripes) have been nothing but buys which indicates the health of the overall uptrend
- confirmed break of the head and shoulders formation on the SPX (comments)
The dollar fell to 109.500, trying to rise but it did not succeeThe dollar fell to 109.500, trying to rise but it did not succeed.
change the trendIt is expected that the upward trend will end within the current resistance range and we will see the beginning of the correction.
Dollar Index (DXY): One More Clear Sign of Strength
Looks like Dollar Index is going to continue rising.
After an extended accumulation within a horizontal parallel channel,
the market violated its upper boundary on Friday.
Bullish trend will most likely continue.
Next goal - 110.5
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Levels discussed during livestream 10th Jan 202510th January 2025 (Pre NFP)
DXY: Consolidating below 109.40
strong nfp: break 109.40 trade up to 110
weak nfp; needs to break 108.80, to trade down to bottom of channel at 108.40
NZDUSD: Sell 0.5570 SL 30 TP 60 (DXY strength)
AUDUSD: Look for reaction at 0.62 support area, Sell 0.6255 SL 20 TP 50 (rejection of trendline)
GBPUSD: Sell 1.2250 SL 30 TP 60 (DXY strength)
EURUSD: Sell 1.0270 SL 25 TP 60 (DXY strength)
USDJPY: Sell 157.80 SL 30 TP 120 (DXY weakness MASSIVE Counter Trend)
EURJPY: Do Nothing
GBPJPY: Buy 195.50 SL 60 TP 250
USDCHF: Buy 0.91430 SL 30 TP 60
USDCAD: Buy 1.4390 SL 20 TP 70
XAUUSD: Continuation higher, break above 2678 to trade up to 2690
#DXY bullish dollarstrong economic activity and interest rate hike decision offers bullish momentum. Expected to move to the previous monthly highs!! BUY Low.
It will take some time .
DXY Trading JournalDXY Trading Journal
Jan 13
Price is in a Premium. Price is rebalancing a HTF M SIBI. Price ended Friday in consolidation in a Premium.
I would like to see come up take buy side liquidity out and then seek the 50% possibly rebalance Fridays FVG.
Could be a side ways day high resistance delivery after NFC and no red folder today.
DXY Long-Term Roadmap🧭 Roadmap Overview:
The DXY (US Dollar Index) moves in multi-decade cycles of bull and bear runs, reflecting changes in global economic conditions, monetary policies, and investor sentiment. In this chart, I’ve mapped out a long-term roadmap based on historical cycles that indicate where we are now and what to expect in the future.
I’ve also included how crypto adoption and stablecoins could potentially impact the DXY in the coming years.
🔎 Historical Cycles & Trends:
1️⃣ 1980-1985 Bull Run:
Driven by Federal Reserve rate hikes to combat inflation. The DXY reached a peak around 160, marking a major bull run.
2️⃣ 1985-1995 Bear Run:
The Plaza Accord in 1985 led to a devaluation of the dollar. The DXY dropped significantly during this period.
3️⃣ 1995-2002 Bull Run:
The dot-com boom and a period of economic expansion saw the DXY rally once again, reaching highs above 120.
4️⃣ 2002-2008 Bear Run:
Post-9/11 and the housing bubble crash triggered a major decline in the DXY.
5️⃣ 2008-2022 Bull Run:
The global financial crisis in 2008, combined with Fed tightening policies, triggered a long bull run in the DXY, peaking around 114 in 2022.
🧩 Where We Are Now:
Currently, the DXY is at a critical inflection point. Based on historical cycles:
The next bear run is expected to start soon, driven by a potential Fed pivot to lower interest rates and increasing global de-dollarization efforts.
After this bear run, I expect another multi-year bull run, starting around 2030, as the dollar remains the world’s primary reserve currency.
⚡ How Crypto Could Impact the DXY:
🔵 1. Bitcoin as a Hedge Against USD:
Bitcoin is often seen as digital gold, offering investors a way to diversify away from the U.S. dollar. If Bitcoin adoption grows globally, it could reduce demand for USD and put downward pressure on the DXY.
🟢 2. Stablecoins Competing with USD:
Stablecoins like USDT, USDC, and DAI are pegged to the USD and used globally as digital dollars. However, if crypto-native stablecoins start to replace traditional banking systems, it could challenge the dominance of the USD in global trade.
For example:
USDT has a higher daily transaction volume than PayPal.
Crypto transactions across borders bypass traditional banking systems, reducing the need for USD reserves.
🟡 3. De-Dollarization & Crypto Adoption:
Countries like Russia, China, and BRICS nations are pushing to reduce reliance on the USD. If they adopt crypto or blockchain-based settlement systems, it could accelerate the decline of the DXY.
Example:
Russia is exploring digital currencies to settle international trade.
China’s digital yuan (CBDC) aims to reduce reliance on the USD for cross-border payments.
⚡ Key Risk:
The more crypto adoption grows, the more demand for traditional USD may decline, which could negatively impact the DXY in the long term.
🎯 Predicted Cycles:
📉 Bear Run: 2025-2030
📈 Bull Run: 2030-2040
💬 What are your thoughts on how crypto adoption could impact the future of the DXY? Let me know your thoughts below! 👇
#DXY #USD #Crypto #USDT #Stablecoins #Bitcoin #DeDollarization #Forex #Trading #MacroAnalysis #BTC
U.S. Dollar Index . 1W Hello dear traders and respected companions!
I always keep an eye on the DXY chart because it is one side of all the currencies in the world. Friends, this is an important chart, and its key time frames are monthly, weekly, and daily. During President Bush's term, an important event occurred where we had a Break of Structure (BoS) in the monthly chart. The chart moved upwards hastily without correction to reach the upper imbalance. The Order Block Extreme was successfully met, but the Order Block Extreme is still intact.
I’m watching to see what happens to this important Order Block after the price reaches it. With the presence of President Trump, I hope this economy makes proper reforms and I expect it to create a Change of Character (CHOCH) on a monthly basis. Then, I will wait for a major economic correction to happen, but perhaps with the price hitting this important Order Block, we may have a significant correction and then see a logical and stable upward movement from this economic chart! In summary, friends, whenever this correction is about to start, it’s time to buy in other currencies, especially for long-term and significant investments. We need to be prepared; my team and I are actively following it and we will continue.
The situation in the weekly timeframe is very bullish and moving towards BoS. If I see any changes in this trend, I will update all of these points.
Quick Conclusions:
Attention to the DXY chart: This chart has a profound impact on global markets, and analyzing it is essential.
Order Block Extreme: We must pay attention to the price reaction in the daily timeframe after it hits this Order Block!
Monitoring the economic situation: Given the political and economic changes, we expect corrections in the near future.
Readiness for buying: The best time to purchase in other currencies is when corrections begin, and we must be prepared for long-term investments.
Thank you for your support!
Fereydoon Bahrami
"A retail trader in the Wall Street trading Center (Forex)."
Bullish Bias Until Opposing DisplacementClassic SMC concept:
Price at Premium area, in order to gather liquidity it has to go to Discount area.
Lets break down it into available Week unfolding Scenario:
Scenario A:
The easiest target for Price is to take PWH (Premium) and then we may face the some sort of displacement it could create Daily/4h -OB then we may trade up to Thursday for having Bearish Bias (short term) by keeping in mind Bullish Bias intact in mind (long term).
Scenario B:
Price may drop into FVG:BISI(4h) and may turn Bullish and then we may notice FVG creation on Monday and may ride Tuesday retracement to frame Bullish trade up to Thursday/Friday.
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) Update: Peaking Phase in FocusIn our previous analysis, we projected a bullish trend for the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), forecasting its strength to persist until it reached a critical "Area of Interest" (highlighted in pink on the chart). This area corresponds to a significant resistance zone near the 109.6–110.0 level, as marked on the chart.
Current Observations:
- The DXY has now entered the projected "peaking phase," as shown by its approach to the identified resistance zone.
- Momentum indicators, such as the RSI, suggest overbought conditions near this level, reinforcing the likelihood of a reversal.
- The chart highlights a series of ascending waves culminating in the current peak, aligning with the earlier analysis of the bullish phase ending by early 2025.
What’s Next?
- A bearish reversal is anticipated, with the DXY likely retracing to lower support levels. Key targets for the downturn are:
- The 100.00 psychological level, which also aligns with a structural support zone.
- The 97.8 level, representing a major support from previous price action.
- The longer-term downtrend trendline remains intact, suggesting the DXY could experience sustained weakness throughout 2025.
Implications for Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies:
As noted earlier, a weakening U.S. dollar often correlates with upward momentum in dollar-denominated assets, including Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. If the DXY confirms its reversal, we could see a bullish breakout in Bitcoin beginning around Q1–Q2 2025, as the market prices in dollar devaluation.
Conclusion:
Investors should monitor the DXY's behavior closely within the "Area of Interest." Confirmation of a bearish reversal could trigger significant market shifts across various asset classes. Stay vigilant for further updates as the DXY's trajectory unfolds.
DXY Is Going Up! Long!
Please, check our technical outlook for DXY.
Time Frame: 12h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is testing a major horizontal structure 109.638.
Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 111.019 level soon.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
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