Weakness of Dollar Could Be Over SoonTextbook Head & Shoulders pattern is underway on DXY chart.
Price is close to the target of 101.91.
Watch how price will react there as weakness of dollar could be over soon
USDX trade ideas
DXY Will Go Lower From Resistance! Sell!
Take a look at our analysis for DXY.
Time Frame: 1h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is testing a major horizontal structure 103.479.
Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 103.100 level soon.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
USDJPY and NZDUSD Analysis Here is an analysis of UJ and NU.
Currently, nothing is very clear at all. A large move already transpired on most pairs. Waiting for price to cool off and engineer some liquidity. What I see on the chart can be seen via the video.
- R2F Trading.
start the uptrendGiven the behavior of the index within the specified support ranges, possible scenarios have been identified. It is expected that a trend change will take place and we will witness the beginning of an upward trend.
USDX-BUY strategy 12 hourly Line Break (2)The USDX is very oversold and requires correction I feel. MACD shows we have buying pressure building and RSI of course very oversold.
Strategy BUY @ 103.10-103.50 and take profit near 104.57.
DXY Dollar Index at Key Support: Is a Major Retrace Coming? 💹📉
In this video, we dive deep into the DXY and analyze the current market conditions. 📊 At the moment, the pair is overextended and trading into a critical weekly support level. 🔄 Join me as we break down the trend, price action, and market structure, and explore a potential trade idea based on these insights. 🧠💡 Whether you're a seasoned trader or just starting out, this analysis will give you valuable perspectives on how to approach key levels in the market. ⚠️ This is not financial advice—always trade responsibly! ⚠️ Don't forget to comment, and boost my video if you find value in the content! 👍📈✨
US DOLLAR INDEX (DXY): Bearish Movement ContinuesAs I expected, the Dollar Index decreased last week.
Analyzing the price movements throughout the day, we can see further evidence of a strong downward trend.
After consolidating within a horizontal range on a 4-hour chart, the price broke below its support level and closed below it.
Sellers are showing their dominance once again, with a retest of the broken support level indicating a potential move lower to at least 103.10.
DXY BEARISH SCENARIOIt can be seen that DXY is bullish in long term as President Trump initiates trade wars with other countries. This will pave way for a strong pump for the DXY soon. This will further weaken the currencies that are pegged to the US dollar..
Dollar Index - We Are Seeing Heaviness To The DownsideIt is important to note that although we have recently seen huge decline in the dollar, there is still a possibility for a minor relief rally into the monthly BISI which is now a inverted FVG @ 104.636 - 104.420 which could seek out small movements to the downside for GBPUSD and EURUSD.
Fully aware that dollar can continue to present risk on conditions, taking out 103.373 lows and making its way into the longer term monthly bias of the 101.917 - 103.373 FVG.
DXY (U.S. Dollar Index) Bearish Outlook – Key Levels & PredictioDXY (U.S. Dollar Index) Analysis – Daily Chart
🔹 Recent Downtrend:
The DXY has been in a strong decline ⬇️ after breaking key support around 104.5 📉.
The price dropped sharply, showing bearish momentum 🚨.
🔹 Key Zones Identified:
Resistance Zone (104.0 – 105.0) ❌📊 (Previously support, now acting as resistance)
Support Zone (100.5 – 101.0) ✅📉 (Potential target for further downside)
🔹 Expected Price Movement:
A possible short-term bounce 🔄 back toward the 104.0 - 104.5 resistance ⚠️.
If rejected ❌, the downtrend may continue toward the 100.5 – 101.0 level 🎯📉.
🔎 Conclusion:
✅ Bearish Bias – Trend favors further downside unless the price reclaims 105.0.
📌 Watch for a retracement before another drop 📉.
📊 Key Levels:
Resistance: 104.0 – 105.0 🚧
Support: 100.5 – 101.0 🛑
$DXY-101.64 retrace the Trump PumpHola people!
expecting this to dip below the 200 ema and take liquidity
would love it to slice through but surely some sort of reaction there
currently at a key level of 103.650 which was our range high in Jan 2016
so acceptance below this along with a close below the weekly 200 ema should get things moving quicker
let see what we get on the weekly close either way time to pay attention
Investors Brace for US CPI Inflation Data Amid Increasing Trade Market participants will closely monitor February’s CPI inflation report (Consumer Price Index), scheduled to be released tomorrow at 12:30 pm GMT. The consensus anticipates that headline and core metrics will demonstrate signs of cooling.
Economists anticipate that year-on-year CPI inflation has eased to 2.9% (down from 3.0% in January) and that core inflation has cooled to 3.2% (from 3.3% in January). Between January and February, month-on-month headline inflation is expected to have slowed to 0.3% (down from 0.5%), with the core reading also forecast to cool to 0.3% (from 0.4%).
Most will probably agree that US President Donald Trump’s back-and-forth on tariffs is challenging to keep track of, and the uncertainty is impacting risk assets. Last Tuesday, the US administration imposed levies on three of America’s largest trading partners: Canada, Mexico, and China, only to see some goods exempted the following day (for one month), with additional items added to the exempted list on Thursday of the same week. During an interview with Fox News on Sunday, uncertainty mounted when Trump sidestepped whether he was expecting a recession this year, stating ‘he hates to predict things like that’ and adding that there would be a ‘period of transition’. As a result of tariffs enforced in February, this week’s CPI inflation release could be a turning point. Although tariffs did not take effect in February (except for China), given the 30-day reprieve, businesses have been preparing to bear tariffs by raising prices. Both the ISM (Institute for Supply Management) manufacturing and services PMIs (Purchasing Managers’ Indexes) showed that the prices paid sub-indexes pushed higher. While the ISM manufacturing index dropped to 50.3 from January’s reading of 50.9 – along with the employment and new orders indexes dipping into contractionary territory to 47.6 and 48.6, respectively – the prices paid index surged to the upside, coming in at 62.4 from 54.9 in January. If this week’s report indicates rising price pressures, I believe this presents a noteworthy upside risk to inflation, potentially influencing rate pricing, which may result in a bid in US Treasury yields and the US dollar (USD).
Fed Unlikely to Move Based on February’s CPI Print
Should data report as expected, although this would mark signs of cooling inflation, it provides the US Federal Reserve (Fed) with little incentive to begin easing policy at this juncture given the current uncertainty ahead.
According to market pricing, this month’s meeting (19 March) will unlikely see any rate adjustment; investors currently have their eye on June’s meeting for the next 25 basis point (bp) cut (-34 bps). As a note, Fed speak will be limited until the next meeting as the central bank limits the extent to which Fed officials speak publicly – known as the ‘blackout period’.
Nevertheless, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell made the headlines on Friday. Speaking at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business Monetary Policy Forum in New York, Powell reiterated that the Fed is not in a rush to cut rates, commenting: ‘Our current policy stance is well positioned to deal with the risks and uncertainties that we face in pursuing both sides of our dual mandate’.
Precipitous USD Decline
As per the US Dollar Index, the USD is down nearly 4% this month, and, according to the monthly chart, sellers could strengthen their grip at least until reaching the 50-month simple moving average at 101.72. A similar picture is seen on the daily chart following the breach of support from 103.94 (now marked resistance); an absence of support is reasonably clear until 101.92, levels not seen since October 2024. So, given the lack of support on the bigger picture, any pullbacks will likely be sold into until price action reaches possible support between 101.72 and 101.92.
Lower-than-expected data, of course, would likely support USD downside and see investors increase rate cut bets, though should data surprise to the upside, this could see an unwind in short positions (note that positioning is also relatively overstretched to the downside) as traders seek mean-reversion strategies. On the other hand, although a short-term burst to the upside could be seen, this may be tricky as an increase in price pressures could also stimulate stagflation concerns.
Written by FP Markets Market Analyst Aaron Hill
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) – Key Technical Levels & Market OutlookU.S. Dollar Index (DXY) Monthly Chart Analysis 📊💵
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is currently navigating a critical price structure, with key supply and demand zones influencing market direction. Here’s a professional breakdown of the chart’s technical outlook:
📍 Key Technical Insights
✅ Supply & Demand Zones
Supply Zone (Resistance): 109 - 114 📈 – A key area where selling pressure has historically emerged. A decisive breakout above this level could signal further upside potential.
Demand Zone (Support): 100 - 103 📉 – A strong accumulation zone where buyers have stepped in previously. A breakdown below could indicate a shift in market sentiment.
✅ Market Structure & Momentum
A Break of Structure (BOSS) has been identified, signaling a shift in trend dynamics.
The market is currently ranging between major resistance (~109) and support (~100).
✅ 200-Month Moving Average 📊
The long-term moving average (red line) is acting as dynamic support, reinforcing the bullish bias unless decisively breached.
📊 Potential Scenarios
🔹 Bullish Outlook: If DXY maintains support above 100-103 and breaks past 109, the index could aim for 114+ in the coming months. 🚀
🔹 Bearish Risk: A sustained drop below 100 may open the door for further downside towards 95-89, signaling a broader correction. ⚠️
📌 Conclusion
The DXY remains in a consolidation phase, with key inflection points around 103 (support) and 109 (resistance). A breakout or breakdown from this range will determine the next major trend. Traders should monitor these levels closely for potential trading opportunities.
Dollar Index Monthly Review: Key Support Levels with the help ofIn the first Fibonacci setup, we observe a retracement of the index to the 61.8% Fibonacci level, after which a trendline could be drawn. Applying a second Fibonacci retracement on the chart reveals that the Dollar Index once again found support within the 50.0%-61.8% zone.
In January of this year, the dollar attempted to break above the 110.00 level but encountered resistance at the 61.8% bullish retracement level. This led to another pullback, increasing the likelihood of a decline toward the trendline in the 98.50-99.00 zone. The 100.00 level is expected to act as support, though a temporary dip below this level within a consolidation phase is possible before another solid support is established.
Once a new support base is confirmed, the Dollar Index could initiate the next bullish rally, potentially forming a new high above the 116.00 level.
DXY USDTrend Overview: The DXY has been in a strong bullish trend recently, driven by market sentiment favoring the US dollar due to strong economic data and expectations of continued Federal Reserve hawkishness. The index has shown resilience at key support levels and is trending upward.
Current Price Action: The DXY is currently trading around the 104.20-104.50 level (assuming recent data), with the potential for a move toward the 106 zone, which is a key resistance area.
Support and Resistance Zones:
Key Resistance Levels:
The 106.00 zone is the key resistance area. This is a major psychological level as well as a technical level from previous price action. A break above this level would suggest further bullish momentum toward 107.50 or even higher.
Intermediate Resistance: The 105.50 zone could be an interim resistance level that needs to be overcome before targeting 106.00.
Intermarket analysis, Gold the perfect SAFE HEAVENThe image shows the comparative performance of various assets, with gold being the only one in positive territory at +8.70% while everything else has declined.
Gold: +8.70% (showing strong upward trend)
S&P 500: -4.13% (showing significant decline)
USD: -1.89% (US Dollar Index showing weakness)
Oil: -9.76% (substantial drop)
BTC (Bitcoin): -17.83% (showing the steepest decline of all assets tracked)
Gold indeed appears to be fulfilling its traditional role as a "safe haven" asset during market turbulence. During periods of economic uncertainty or market volatility, investors often flock to gold as a store of value, which seems to be happening in early 2025 according to this chart.
The timeline shown covers January through early March 2025, and the divergence between gold and other assets became particularly pronounced from mid-February onward. This pattern suggests investors seeking safety amid broader market declines.
Dollar long idea The dollar weakness has been strong for the week, but it is at a relatively strong support level. A bullish correction move is expected.
U.S Dollar Technical analysis.The image is a technical analysis chart of the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) on the 1-hour timeframe from TradingView. Here’s what it represents:
Downtrend Line: A blue trendline shows a previous downward trend.
Support Zone: A purple rectangular box highlights a support level around 103.654–103.363.
Breakout and Retest: The price appears to have broken out of the downtrend and is forming a potential bullish setup.
Projected Move: A blue arrow suggests a bullish breakout after a possible retest of the support zone.
Target Level: The projected upside target is approximately 105.204.
Economic Event Indicators: U.S. flag icons at the bottom suggest upcoming fundamental events that might impact the price.
This analysis suggests that traders anticipate a reversal from the support zone, aiming for higher price levels. Let me know if you need further insights!
DXY Breakdown: Major Support in Play or More Downside Ahead?Welcome back, guys! 👋
I'm Skeptic , and let's kick off the week with a unique and exciting analysis of DXY.
🔍 Daily Time Frame Analysis
Starting with the daily time frame, DXY recently hit a significant peak at 109.655 , followed by a sharp decline, breaking below the critical support zone at 107.405 . This breakdown resulted in forming lower highs and lower lows, confirming a bearish structure. Afterward, DXY retraced sharply to the 0.618 Fibonacci level of its major uptrend, signaling a potential corrective phase.
Although the sentiment remains bearish for now, we must consider the possibility of a price reversal from this crucial support zone.
⏳ 4H Time Frame Analysis
Now, moving to the 4-hour time frame, as discussed in the previous analysis, we anticipated a breakdown of 104.235 , which indeed played out, hitting our target of 103.398 . Currently, the 104.235 level serves as a 4H resistance, while 103.303 acts as a daily support.
These two levels form our main triggers:
💚 Long Trigger: Above 104.259 (confirming a potential reversal)
🔴 Short Trigger: Below 103.303 (aligned with the short-term downtrend)
The short trigger has a higher win rate and risk-to-reward ratio since it aligns with the ongoing bearish trend.
💡 Final Thoughts
Thanks for sticking with me through this analysis! I hope your week ahead is profitable and insightful.
Remember, planning and executing trades with clarity is the key to long-term success.
Catch you on the next breakdown! 🚀
Strange Event in the DollarLast week had one of the strangest events of all time: simultaneous declines in the U.S. dollar index and the S&P 500.
This weekly chart includes a special script that calculates the simple change of the main symbol (DXY) and a second symbol (SPX). If they both move in the same direction by a user-defined threshold, the script plots a white arrow in the lower study.
Big, coordinated drops are unusual because the two indexes typically move in opposite directions. SPX is a “risk” asset while DXY is a “safe haven.” That’s why stock-market selloffs often see the U.S. dollar rally.
Since the data began in 1967, coordinated declines of at least 2 percent have only happened 15 times. This highlights the normal inverse relationship.
Adjusting the script’s threshold to -3 percent, we find last week was one of only two on record with coordinated declines of that magnitude.
In other words, markets just saw a historic coordinated weakness in both the U.S. dollar and U.S. stocks. European and Chinese benchmarks rallied at the same time, which suggests it wasn’t a pure “risk off” move.
These events occur against the backdrop of tariffs and hopes of increased German defense spending. They potentially suggest investors see more opportunity overseas following years of American exceptionalism.
The only other time DXY and SPX fell so sharply at the same time was in September 1981. That instance was less meaningful because it was just a quick pullback in the midst of a strong uptrend.
Last week, on the other hand, DXY was stuck below an earlier high and could be trending lower.
Investors may view this as a freak event. Or they may think it’s a sign of capital moving away from the U.S. Either way, it’s an unusual signal that could merit watching.
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dollar index weekly analysis weekly analysis of dollar index after NFP . you looking for a continuation of the sells ?
DXY Index: Wave Analysis & ForecastHi tradars!
Based on the DXY index, considering the deep overbought conditions on the 4-hour timeframe and the reversal of indicators on the 1-hour timeframe, we can assume that subwave ((iii) within the larger third wave has now been formed.
It reached approximately 100% of subwave ((i)), and in the coming week, we expect the development of wave 4. After that, likely next week—closer to the Federal Reserve meeting—we could see the continuation of the bearish rally in DXY from around the 104.70 level.
Currently, the chart displays the primary wave count. Let’s see if this scenario plays out.
#DSI #WaveAnalysis #Forex #Trading #FedMeeting
DXY - longDXY - long , hi am still long on dxy, last long entry, is all about risk and trade managment
