Bullish Hammer on VIX Monthly chart. Are we in trouble?Bullish Hammer on VIX Monthly chart. Are we in trouble?
VIX trade ideas
VIX: VIX is at historic lows. won't go lower in this crisisVIX: VIX is at historic lows. won't go lower in this crisis. Will reach above 100s.
VOLATILITY INDEX / VIX ANALYSISThe volatility index is very important to us forex traders as it helps us quantify risk. Using the put and call options in the S & P 500 companies, we can get strong signals to when the stock market is changing trends from bullish to bearish and vice versa.
VIX BUYVIX has formed a pivot on RED Shiff fork and theres a chance for a big move towrd blue fork for next 2 weeks.
VIX to breakOut on April 24th SPX Crashhello traders,
Get ready for Stock Market Crash - of 2023
#VIX is now on a major support and growing consistently,
on April 24th 2023, it will break out of resistance and shoot up,
Two more weeks of Bulls, then Stock Market CRASH on the week of April 24 2023.
I will be liquidating all my Long Trades, on the next two weeks, and opening more short positions.
Trade:
Safe
Carefully
Hedged
Good Luck and Good Profit
Edward Trader
#SPX500 #SP100 #NASDAQ
VIX Will Grow! Buy!
Here is our detailed technical review for VIX.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is approaching a key horizontal level 17.57.
Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 24.08.
P.S
Please, note that an overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
The Vix TrendThe Trend in the VIX
It appears the VIX is bouncing off its lower diagonal support. Historically the VIX does move in diagonals trends, even prior to this one.
This chart is self explanatory from a trading perspective.
- Double bounces off diagonal support have been good long entries.
- Within 1 - 4 weeks of the double bounces there has been large increases in volatility (150%+ moves). This one has capacity for a 60 - 80% move and your risk is 5% to the downside.
- The risk reward is reasonable if you are not using leverage or using low leverage (2x or 3x). In general just don't ever use leverage, trust me.
- If you are going to use leverage, which i don't recommend be careful and recognize and ensure that the the product on your chart is the same as on the platform you are using.
(There are multiple VIX products and they all move a little different). Also please ensure you weight your margin put down 2 :1 or 3:1 to give you ample room to avoid liquidation (stops don't always work on fast moves so we protect against that too).
- Honor the dashed orange line. Strength and Honor!!
- The orange dashed line means you are leaving with a small loss or your exiting the trade with at least 80% of your original position after making some nice profit. Any move higher than this will mean epic recession and whilst a recession is highly likely within the next 12-18 months, that's a long timeframe in a volatility trade....lets not put our emotions through that.
- I would hope that we would have some direction on this trade short term....within 4 to 8 weeks.
Major Caveat - I do not trade the VIX however I will trade this set up and I have been haunted this chart for some time.
I consider this a highly risky trade and I will only be putting down a small percentage of a percentage of my portfolio.
If you are unsure about this trade, please only place a small fraction of what your had already considered.
I could not pass up sharing this as it really does look like a reasonable risk to reward and there is a defined pattern from a TA perspective.
Good luck to you all
PUKA
VIX at support Decent RR with the VIX in this area
Also at the support of the channel
Lets see if the earning will be a catalyst to the move up in the VIX
vix bottom and bouncethings are lining up to see some sort of bottom on vix and bounce. confluence of events? rate hike? ukraine war development. Debt ceiling limit? bad earnings?
vix daily re-accumulation before 150% gains🔸Hello guys, today let's review daily chart for VIX . Entering re-accumulation stage now,
expecting range bound trading during summer time season. Pretty wide range as well,
lows near 13 and highs set at 20.
🔸Similar fractal observed during summer season in 2021. Faded into range after heavy spike,
re-accumulation then 150% pump later during autumn 2021.
🔸Recommended strategy bulls: accumulate / buy VIX LEAP calls near range lows, once we
hit closer to 13, this is the perfect entry spot to profit from a new spike, which should come
during autumn season in 2023. Probably multiple buying opportunities near range lows
June through August 2023. good luck traders!
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Trading Futures , Forex, CFDs and Stocks involves a risk of loss.
Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Always limit your leverage and use tight stop loss.
Volatility in decline - why the VIX index is so lowHaving only recently traded through the most volatile (vol) environments in interest rates and bond markets since the GFC, we are now seeing far more subdued conditions in vol. Many have expressed disbelief at how the VIX index (S&P500 30-day implied volatility) is below 17% when the US is eyeing a possible recession this year, the credit crunch is yet to really bite, earnings estimates are likely due to be revised lower, and Treasury yields curves are still deeply inverted.
It’s not just the fact we haven’t seen the S&P500 close 1% lower since 22 March (18 sessions), but we also see the 5-day (exponential) moving average of the high-low trading range for S&P500 futures at a meagre 41-points. This is not far off the lowest levels since 2011, so traders are getting less and to work with intraday.
There isn’t one reason for the lower vol, so I have put some views on the considerations I see as causing these calmer conditions. I am sure there are others, but these jump out.
1. S&P500 realised volatility is impacting the VIX index – we see that S&P500 10-day realised vol is now 8.2%, with S&P500 20-day realised vol at 11.7%% - both are the lowest levels since Nov 21 – options market makers will typically look at how volatility is realising as the basis for pricing implied volatility. The fact the S&P500 just refuses to fall has also limited the demand for downside hedges- hedges cost money.
2. CTAs (trend-following funds) have been getting progressively longer and their estimated net exposure is ‘max long’ US S&P500 futures. Volatility-targeting hedge funds are adding equity exposure as equity realised vol falls – lower vol begets lower vol.
3. Why sell your equity longs? Funds are taking advantage of the grinding price action in stocks and selling S&P500 index calls and using the premium to buy OTM (out of the money) S&P puts – this means they can essentially hold their core equity holdings and utilise optionality with a cheap/free hedge.
4. Reduced interest rate risk – the Fed are now fully data dependent and the market prices a 25bp hike in May, with an extended pause through to November – with a far more normal distribution in the skew of expectations for bond price/yields (i.e. yields could go either way and not just higher), we’ve seen bond vol (we use the MOVE index) fall from the highs on 15 March. Probable lengthy inaction from the Fed has lowered volatility.
5. A weaker USD has helped lower broad market volatility - The USD index (DXY) fell 4.8% from 8 March to 14 April – in that time the VIX index fell 9 vols from 26% to 17%
6. The Fed’s response to managing instability risk through the rollout of emergency credit facilities was truly meaningful – the market is becoming comfortable that there will be consolidation in the US banking sector ahead of us, but the Fed has cut the systemic event risk.
7. Increased liquidity - Reserve balances held with the Fed are +12% since March. We also see that since January the TGA (Treasury General Account) has been drawn down by $450B to sit at $109B.
8. Corporate share buybacks authorisation hit a new record and nears $400b – companies are the biggest buyers of stocks, and this is suppressing vol.
9. BoJ gov Ueda said on 10 April that YCC is still the best policy for the current economy – the has reduced JGB and JPY implied vol, which again has spilt over into G10 FX volatility.
10. The Fed funds rate was hiked aggressively from 0.25% to 5% - Yet while the US real policy rate (fed funds adjusted for headline CPI) has moved from -8% to -0.2%, it is still negative and to some that are not restrictive enough.
11. The rise of 0DTE (days to expiry) options – fewer traders are trading 20–40-day expiries and the volume in ultra-short-term options means we see less volume in the strikes that feed the VIX calculation.
Trading Strategy – traders adapt their strategy to lower volatility and range compression. Recognising the market environment is pivotal for day traders – this means understanding if it’s a range/mean reverting session or more of a trending and possible momentum day. We can see that when the close-to-close percentage changes are low, and the trading ranges are compressing mean reversion strategies are preferred. Traders are selling strength intraday and buying weakness.
What changes this low-vol regime?
If we knew then everyone would be buying volatility – we can look at the known risks and anticipate, but we wait for the market to react and show it is now a factor – being early can hurt. To cause a material drawdown in risk and higher vol I think it must stem from liquidity. While we can’t rule out a renewed move to hike interest rates, I see the debt ceiling as a real risk – not because the US govt is going to miss a debt payment and technically default; the probability of that is incredibly low. But the actual negative event may come from once we see it resolved and the US Treasury aggressively rebuilds the TGA, and issues close to a $1t of short-term US Bills – this will act as a massive liquidity drain and QT on steroids. This comes at a time when the US could be moving into recession and the ECB balance sheet will be falling faster. A scenario many are starting to look at very closely now as liquidity is the oxygen in the market's lungs.
Lost VIX support, what does the history suggest?Since 2000 we've lost this support 3 times, in all of these cases after closing below a spike up followed (on monthly). Let's see what happens this time, looking for a close above the red line in order to have confirmed signal.
VIX a new low then POPThis is what I am watching for in the VIX.
Descend into a new low in or below the target box while the RSI reaches lower target level.
Then, a sharp rise and a market pullback.
Good Luck
Printers Go BRRRR Forever Small volatility spike soon, as the dxy bottoms and has its macro wave 5 move.
Markets print their last bearish wave/ a reccesion is announced.
Short lived pump (Should be a huge move to sucker in bulls)
(Look at the Nintendo chart and extrapolate that data over onto btc and now view the nintendo chart as an expanding flat correction in its second wave of complacency.
Don't hold to long as this will just be our macro disbelief rally/ the end of bitcoins B wave move.
Bitcoin is in an expanding flat correction unless we crack 33k which would invalidate the move.
Draw what you want from this chart and its implications.
But in my eyes i'm right and this confirms a 28 year bull run after what i detailed above plays out.
I'm not saying i'm right,
I'm just saying there is way to much evidence caked into the charts for this to be a coincidence.
linked my Nintendo and bitcoin charts below.
BTC was launched at the tail end of the 2008 financial crisis, right after the completion of tradfi's macro wave 3 move.
Tradfi has entered its macro wave 4 move that will most likely complete once cryptos has completed its macro 5 wave.
(We just finished it 1st macro wave by my count)
Really interesting stuff if true.
As Always,
Good Luck And Safe Trading
Macroeconomic Recession Outlook USD looks ready for a bounce despite fears of global de-dollarisation.
VIX is primed for a bounce as its reaching extreme lows in comparison.
SPX is running into major resistance levels and also appears to be forming a right shoulder of a head and shoulders chart pattern.
🟩 VIX is coming to 18 month low🚨🚨 ONE LINER 🚨🚨
Attention, traders! The Volatility Index ( TVC:VIX ) is approaching an 18-month low, which could indicate a strong bullish signal for the market.
Background : Two months ago, in December 2022, I discussed the significance of the VIX dipping below the 20 level as a key milestone for a bullish market. Today, I want to dive deeper into this topic and share with you three compelling ideas that support the notion of an imminent bullish market. Let's explore the historical context and see how this information can help us make informed decisions in the current market.
💎 IDEA 1 OF 3: VIX as a Key Reversal Indicator
Since 2022, the TVC:VIX has demonstrated a strong correlation with market reversals when positioned under the 20 level. This pattern suggests two possible outcomes:
If the correlation breaks and VIX continues to stay low, we might see a sustained bullish trend.
If the market reacts positively to today's FED communication, it could further solidify the bullish sentiment.
It's essential to keep an eye on the market's reaction and the VIX's behavior from this point forward. During the bear market, the VIX typically fluctuated between 20 and 32, so a sustained drop below 20 could indicate a significant shift in market dynamics.
💎 IDEA 2 OF 3: VIX Levels During Market Rallies
Historically, a VIX level below 20 is often associated with market rallies. Although we are currently above 20, the VIX remains relatively elevated compared to periods of strong upward trends. As the VIX moves closer to the 20 level, it's important to watch for signs of an impending bullish market rally, similar to what we experienced on December 4, 2022.
💎 IDEA 3 OF 3: VIX as a Market Transition Indicator
In previous market transitions from high volatility bear markets to low volatility bull markets, the VIX played a crucial role. As the VIX pushed below the 20 level and remained there long-term, it allowed the market to rally upwards. We can use this historical precedent to study the current market and determine the probable direction.
CONCLUSION :
The VIX nearing an 18-month low presents a compelling bullish signal for traders. By analyzing the VIX's behavior as a key reversal indicator, its levels during market rallies, and its role in market transitions, we can gain valuable insights into the market's probable direction. Keep an eye on the VIX as it approaches the critical 20 level, and stay tuned for updates on the evolving market landscape.
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Here is a section for the real trading geeks who want to learn further:
Let's examine some historical examples that highlight the VIX's behavior in relation to market trends.
Example 1: 2009 Bull Market Rally
In March 2009, the VIX dipped below 40, a significant milestone after the 2008 financial crisis when it had reached an all-time high of 89.53. As the VIX continued to decline, the S&P 500 rallied more than 60% by the end of the year, marking the beginning of a new bull market.
Example 2: 2012 Market Rebound
In 2011, the VIX spiked above 40 during the European debt crisis, causing increased market volatility. However, by early 2012, the VIX had fallen back below 20, coinciding with a strong market rebound. The S&P 500 gained over 13% that year, reflecting a renewed sense of optimism and stability in the market.
Example 3: 2016 Post-Election Rally
In the months leading up to the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election, the VIX experienced increased volatility, hovering around the 20-25 range. After the election, the VIX dropped below 15, and the stock market began a multi-year rally that continued into 2018. This period of low VIX levels correlated with significant gains in the S&P 500.
These historical examples illustrate the VIX's ability to signal market sentiment and direction. When the VIX drops below key levels, such as 20, it often precedes a bullish market rally. By monitoring the VIX and its relationship with the overall market, traders can make more informed decisions and capitalize on potential opportunities.
Happy trading from TinTinTrading!
VIX broke 5yr old trend lineThe week hasn't ended yet, but it seems quite clear that we broke a 5 year old trend line to the down side.
This may very well implicate that we will NOT get a major crash (this year) and the SPY will rise further.
The other scenario is that this is a MAJOR TRAP.
But then the VIX will have to reverse within the next 1 to 2 weeks.
Vix sitting at key levelI forsee rates continuing to increase. Banking to continue having a hard time, the value of the dollar to get stronger, and the price of equities to decrease due to less attractive opportunity costs vs bonds. I think a lot of people are not expecting this, and instead were expecting the fed to pause and for a bull market to begin. I think that equities will be re adjusted quite rapidly, and this will cause the vix to spike. Therefore, I am long the vix.
cboe volatality indexvix is in downward bullish channel .still not broken but chances are there to break the resistence level . looks like correction and came to the main demand zone .
NFA DYOR
VIX is dangerously lowThe Volatility S&P 500 Index rose slightly today, following a short period with a relatively low value. As is displayed on the chart, within the past year, these moments often coincided with tops in SPX and preceded times of increased volatility with significant selling pressure. Therefore, we will monitor this metric closely in the following days.
*The orange line represents SPX.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
