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VARAUSD trade ideas

VARAUSD - Updated Technical AnalysisAs anticipated, price action broke through the middle band of the bollinger bands on the weekly and sadly did not produce a wick. Price action rejected off of the lower band placing us in a range bound movement again. While overall movement is sideways, with two red candles preceding this a green candle is stastically more likely and overnight on Sunday (tonight) will hopefully yield some movement out of USDX to the downside as I anticipate that this most recent market volatility is due to the over-active Federal Reserve board trying to shake things up prior to Trump taking office. It is no secret that the Board and Donald Trump do not see eye to eye and do not like each other. The thing is, these markets are hitting record volumes monthly. The entire market has pulled back which is a normal knee jerk reaction to the Fed loosening up on printing. I am in the banking sector professionally and know that the high rates have caused banks to fail and did very little to help slow inflation anyway. I do not foresee the rapid lowering of interest rates to do very much damage over the long run considering oil prices can be weaponized by the whitehouse to target high inflation, simply by making fuel dirt cheap inflation will go away. I would say, lets keep watching these order walls that are just below and above current price action within whatever order flow program you choose and lets see if that lower order wall moves up. I have a gut feeling that it is going to move up and when it does the price will level up.
COINBASE:VARAUSDLong
by fritbjorn
VARAUSD /USDX Negative Correlation - VARA Still RangeboundFear continues to trap price action within this sideways accumulation range. Sunday evening after the markets reopen USDX will prove either a very bearish pullback when traders sober up from the Fed announcement. Over the past few months, the Federal reserve has lowered rates a few times, each time causing the US dollar to rally against other currencies and pressing risk assets in the crypto market downward. With Bitcoin being one of the only ones to be able to break free from this negative correlation. This pattern is going to cease very soon. This I believe is because the Federal reserve is abusing its power in an attempt to increase inflation before President Trump takes office in January. It isn't going to work just as increasing the rates didn't have much of an effect on the economy. Investors are always fearful whenever the Federal reserve is as active as they are now, especially with the transition of power in the United States occurring next month.
COINBASE:VARAUSDLong
by fritbjorn
2
VARAUSD Large Movement Incoming - PredictionSee my chart I put comments therein. That WICK that I needed to see is forming on the weekly. I did go ahead and publish a low time frame for the trolls in here who cannot seem to get it through their thick skulls that I am not a day trader. What am I going to do with the pennies you are making. This little channel is an accumulation zone and I am buying here, there is nothing to sell at this level. People who are selling here are absolutely nuts in my opinion. Sell low, buy high. Yah no thanks.
COINBASE:VARAUSDLong
by fritbjorn
16
VARAUSD Weekly AnalysisThe wich off of the center B Band is developing nicely with a few days left in the weekly candle. I anticipated this pull back due to resistance from trapped longs and upper B Band psychological level. Next weeks candle will likely reverse and develop into a massive green candle, this time absorbing the remaining trapped longs at the $0.04 level. The center B Band is a target long position with next target accumulation zone around $0.045 and $0.11 depending upon BTC and USDX movements.
COINBASE:VARAUSDLong
by fritbjorn
12
VARAUSD - Bullish Trend - WeeklyAs you can clearly see the B Bands have tightened. Price action has already hit the upper band resistance as it is supposed to and support of the center band was previously confirmed. Price action is headed toward the center B Bands where it will likely confirm support again and break out. This sums up the accumulation phase on the weekly chart. Sorry to those of you who are staring at the 4 hour, that cannot be done on assets like this. We are only concerned with the big picture which is that this Asset pumped all the way up to the top of the B Bands and retreated. This is unavoidable even for Bitcoin. Understandably VARA is going to pull back more and more often, this is why swing trading the asset is such a joy. All I can tell you is small moves on the lower time frames are technical pointers but are in no way the direction of this coin. I mentioned previously that this weeks candle would likely be red and when I said that it did not mean the price is going up, it means exactly what it says, a downward move.
COINBASE:VARAUSDLong
by fritbjorn
6
VARA - Bullish Trend Reversal - Further AnalysisTrapped longs are regions where traders called a false bottom and went all in while the market continued to sell. The current actual bottom is indicated and called due to a trend reversal, heavy increase in buying pressure volume, and a clear change in market structure. There are currently trapped shorts in this region where stop loss and fear traders orders were filled and gobbled up by consumer, institution, and whale traders. This asset has a very low market cap, if and when the trapped longs are cured and price action breaks through this region of the chart greed will overtake breakout traders who will go all in. This hasn't occurred yet due to several massive pullbacks from the $0.04 mark. This asset has several psychological price points of approximately every half cent currently hitting .03 and .035 psychological resistance. Contracts are opening and closing in short periods of time partially due to lack of faith as well as automated trade activity. It will be interesting to see what happens overnight Sunday into Monday morning.
COINBASE:VARAUSDLong
by fritbjorn
VARA - Further AnalysisI've gotten quite a few messages from people wanting to know why I am bullish on VARA right now. Look at my chart, this is why. This asset has been trying to break out for months and it actually isn't falling it is in a bullish squeeze. This regression trend in the chart below is the top and bottom of the range (it is an approximation). This is also called an accumulation zone. If someone were to have averaged in throughout this regression trend the center line shows the average price for all coin bought.
COINBASE:VARAUSDLong
by fritbjorn
13
VARA - USD Bullish Whale AccumulationPlease see the chart for illustration. This asset remains in a whale accumulation sideways trend. Bollinger bands were compressed leading to a price action squeeze leading up to the initial breakout from above $0.025 with many long positions opening between this price point and $0.03 placing the local bottom at just below $0.03. Consumer and whale activity still indicates the bulls are in control of this market. I have increased my target to $0.15 pending breakout above the $0.10-$0.13 range where a larger set of trapped longs exist. Trapped longs are traders who locked in on a price point but failed to execute a stop loss. When this happens investors will try to hang on long enough to allow for the price to return to near their price in order to break even or take a small loss. This is incredibly risky considering once price action returns to that price point it is more likely to continue going upward for a time as greed overtakes their fear.
COINBASE:VARAUSDLong
by fritbjorn
12
Bullish Inversion on prive vs RSIThe last time Vara was this over sold and had an inversion there were spikes up. June has a smaller inversion on a shorter time span. There is another inversion happening on a longer time span that is creating a trend lin in the RSI. This time frame spans from last November to june this year. In about a 2 month timeframe there was a 268% increase in price per Vara. We shall see... Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. This is me sharing my observation. Trade, invest at your own risk or find your self a licensed financial advisor.
COINBASE:VARAUSDLong
by agilila
8