SPYSPXTSLAAAPL If you are the one who always ends up buying calls in a falling market, hoping that the market will reverse because you think it has already dropped too much and that there are high chances of a reversal, then you are not alone in feeling this way. This is a fallacy that has been scientifically proven, and it is famously known as the "Monte Carlo Fallacy." So next time, if you think the next move will be opposite to the previous ones because the past moves have been the same for a long time (for example, the market has been bearish for an extended period), remember to follow the trend and shift your thinking by accepting that the next move is independent of the previous ones. By doing so, you will build a stronger strategy and can avoid a gambling mindset.