AMAT trade ideas
AMAT shortHey all, I'm currently up negligibly on my AMAT short. Along with SMH, I've been short on this name for the longest period of time out of any of the positions in my portfolio- I filled short when this thing hit 108 for the first time on the rally it is seeing. That being said, this is about as incredible a short setup as I've ever seen. I firmly believe this thing will virtually straight line down to $72/share. Even if that isn't the case, the risk:reward on this name is incredible, even here, down a few percent from the highs of this rally. I'm extraordinarily bearish on semiconductors currently; the names across the board look terrible, and as a very cyclically-sensitive sector, I believe they are primed to fall, a lot.
AMATter of timeHey all, I've been calling for a rally these last few weeks, and the rally has occurred. I am now looking to enter short with heavy size tomorrow, 7/29. AMAT is one of my favorite shorts- it has made a very clean Wyckoff distribution at the top, and has virtually no support until $70. I am incredibly bearish on semiconductors here, and AMAT is my favorite of the names to short. Favorable risk, favorable reward, with many safety net levels to hide behind if this rally does somehow, miraculously continue.
Applied Materials on the way down - AMATLong term chart here, logarithmically scaled to account for the long time span. As you can see, it's at the top of the channel and after the horrific week it just had I think that's the catalyst for a trip back down in the channel. It just broke below the 50 SMA. Top of channel + 20% down week + 50 SMA breach + macro market headwinds = down.
4/17/22 AMATApplied Materials, Inc. ( NASDAQ:AMAT )
Sector: Producer Manufacturing (Industrial Machinery)
Market Capitalization: 100.142B
Current Price: $113.36
Breakdown price: $114.50
Sell Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $125.60-$136.95
Price Target: $97.20-$94.80 (4th)
Estimated Duration to Target: 40-44d (4th)
Contract of Interest: $AMAT 5/20/22 110p
Trade price as of publish date: $4.95/contract
Short Idea: $AMAT1) I expect a momentaneous recovery in the week. Why? The stock market never goes directly to 0, the price always fluctuates and moves in waves (ups and downs), but the overall trend prevails. Also, sellers will take profits on the way down, causing a small recovery. That being said, I will start adding 15% of my total capital for this trade (Risk Management).
2) Once the stock resumes the trend I will add 25% at the breakout of the first trade.
3) 3% down since 2), I will add 40% as the trend, once again, is confirmed.
4) Last but not least, I will add the last 20% after a 4% drop since 2) happened.
Average price around $115, take profit $91, total profit 21%.
All ideas are welcome! Thanks for your time!
Applied Materials looking bearish. AMATImmediate targets 124, 112. Invalidation 195.
We are not in the business of getting every prediction right, no one ever does and that is not the aim of the game. The Fibonacci targets are highlighted in purple with invalidation in red. Fibonacci goals, it is prudent to suggest, are nothing more than mere fractally evident and therefore statistically likely levels that the market will go to. Having said that, the market will always do what it wants and always has a mind of its own. Therefore, none of this is financial advice, so do your own research and rely only on your own analysis. Trading is a true one man sport. Good luck out there and stay safe
AMAT Big resistance above, earnings upcomingLooks bad on Daily, Downtrending RSI, peaked Accumulation, negative 21 day slope, piled on shorts. Much resistance above. Earnings up shortly. It is a good stock, it sits right on an upward sloping 52 week Exponential moving average, so I will buy one day. Now is not the time.
Zooming on Applied Materials. AMATGoing strong on this upgoing zigzag, and it looks like just a little bit more to go to hit our sole (just one) taget here. Never squeeze, rush or get greedy with the market. It is a beast with a mind of its own, and can be more cruel and unforgiving than any human opponent. This entity has no remorse, reason and it does not forgive impatience. Stay safe.
We are not in the business of getting every prediction right, no one ever does and that is not the aim of the game. The Fibonacci targets are highlighted in green with invalidation in red. Fibonacci goals, it is prudent to suggest, are nothing more than mere fractally evident and therefore statistically likely levels that the market will go to. Having said that, the market will always do what it wants and always has a mind of its own. Therefore, none of this is financial advice, so do your own research and rely only on your own analysis. Trading is a true one man sport. Good luck out there and stay safe!