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AMD trade ideas

AMD Chart-Based Probabilistic TargetsFRACTAL SCALING For a start I'll use the monthly timeframe that captures the broader market cycles and observes the structural trends to understand the scale and distribution of randomness over time. We need a solid foundation before diving into finer timeframes for more detailed analysis. Capturing critical points of a cycle with Fibonacci channels, especially when aligned with the direction of the trend, reveals hidden non-linear dynamics due to the following reasons: Fibonacci ratios reveal fractal structures that align with key reversal points in cycles, reflecting inherent market patterns. Directionality highlights trend asymmetries, showing where price reacts differently in bullish or bearish conditions. Cycles map the rhythm of reversals, exposing non-random patterns in market transitions. Price reacts disproportionately at Fibonacci levels, reflecting non-linear market forces like supply and demand. Hidden symmetry emerges, revealing harmonic relationships within price swings. Integration of time and price uncovers rhythm, where significant moves align with Fibonacci projections. Historical patterns anticipate future reactions, showing the underlying structure of market behavior. Justified Shift This version of the wave metrics aligns the top of the Fibonacci channel with a more recent cycle high, allowing it to better reflect the current price structure. By anchoring the top cycle closer to the present price action, the analysis enhances the accuracy of the underlying frequency dynamics and non-linear relationships. This adjustment also highlights a clearer transition between past and current cycles, capturing how momentum evolves within the channel. The updated metrics likely improve the identification of potential reversal zones or continuation points relative to the new cycle top. Curves Curves are essential in fractal analysis because they reveal the non-linear dynamics and self-similar structures that govern market behavior. Unlike straight lines, curves accurately model the natural rhythm of price movements, capturing how trends accelerate or decelerate over time and oscillate between key levels. By connecting critical price points such as highs, lows, and retracement levels, curves expose the proportional relationships that link fractals, often aligning with natural laws like the Fibonacci sequence. They also define boundaries like "Full Capacity," highlighting where price tends to exhaust momentum and reverse, offering a roadmap for identifying turning points. Furthermore, curves integrate time and price, capturing the dynamic relationship between the two and providing deeper insights into how cycles evolve and repeat. In fractal analysis, they bridge the gap between mathematical models and real market behavior, making them invaluable for interpreting and anticipating price action. Weekly Timeframe AMD’s remarkable growth of 14,018.01% from $1.61 to its all-time high signals an impressive rally, but it also raises the likelihood of growing bearish pressure as the market enters an overheated condition. Such parabolic moves are rarely sustainable, and they often lead to exhaustion, where natural resistance levels, such as the upper bounds of the Fibonacci channel, come into play. These levels, particularly the "Full Capacity" threshold, often signal overbought conditions, triggering profit-taking by institutional investors and traders. As price approaches these critical thresholds, momentum typically begins to slow, with indicators like RSI or volume divergence potentially signaling weakening bullish sentiment. The natural cyclical behavior of markets, combined with extended valuations, creates a favorable environment for bearish reversals. Additionally, macroeconomic risks, declining earnings growth, or broader fundamental concerns can further amplify selling pressure. If price fails to maintain upward momentum or begins forming bearish reversal patterns such as lower highs or rising wedges, it may confirm that the market is entering a corrective phase. Monitoring technical indicators, such as volume trends and momentum divergences, alongside fundamental triggers, will be essential in assessing whether bearish pressure will dominate in the near term. Repetitive Patterns The repetitive pattern circled in yellow represents a critical cyclical phase in AMD's price movement. Each time this pattern completes, it is immediately followed by an "off-the-range" move that resembles the beginning of a super cycle. This phenomenon suggests that the yellow-circled phase acts as a precursor to a significant shift in the market's dynamics, where price transitions into a larger, more powerful trend. That fractal may indicate consolidation or accumulation, where price oscillates within a confined range before breaking out. This breakout initiates a super cycle, marked by a rapid and sustained directional move beyond the previous range. The repetitive nature of this sequence highlights the fractal behavior of the market, where similar patterns recur at different scales, providing opportunities to anticipate major market movements. Fractal I Fractal II
NASDAQ:AMD
by fract
7
AMD Rebounds Towards Resistance! Key Levels to Watch. Jan 14Technical Analysis Overview: 1-Hour Chart: * Trend: AMD has broken out of a descending channel, signaling a potential bullish reversal. * Indicators: * EMA (9/21): The price is trading above the 9 EMA and 21 EMA, confirming short-term bullish momentum. * MACD: Shows a bullish crossover with increasing momentum, supporting further upside. 30-Minute Chart: * Price Action: * AMD is recovering from its recent low of $113.30, with $118 acting as a critical level. * Resistance lies at $120-$122, aligned with GEX levels and gamma resistance. * Volume: Rising volume during the breakout indicates strong buyer interest. Key Levels to Watch: Support Levels: * $116: Immediate support level with high gamma activity. * $115: Strong PUT support zone. * $113.30: Recent swing low and key support. Resistance Levels: * $120: Critical resistance level aligned with 22.31% GEX (GEX8). * $122: 2nd CALL Wall, significant gamma resistance. * $126-$130: Strong CALL walls and major resistance zones. GEX Insights: Key Gamma Levels: * Positive Gamma Walls (Resistance): * $120: Immediate resistance with 22.31% GEX. * $122: 27.79% GEX (3rd CALL Wall). * $126: 33.46% GEX (2nd CALL Wall). * $130: 22.03% GEX (GEX10). * Negative Gamma Levels (Support): * $115: -96.94% PUT support, critical for maintaining bullish momentum. * $113: Key support, near significant gamma level. Options Metrics: * IVR: 62.2, showing elevated implied volatility. * IVx: 53.3, above average, reflecting potential price movement. * Call/Put Bias: 31.3% Calls, indicating neutral to slightly bullish sentiment. Trade Scenarios: Bullish Scenario: * Entry: Above $120 with confirmation of volume. * Target: $122-$126. * Stop-Loss: Below $115 to limit downside risk. Bearish Scenario: * Entry: Rejection at $120 or $122. * Target: $116-$113. * Stop-Loss: Above $126 to control losses. Directional Bias: * AMD is recovering strongly, but $120-$122 remains a critical resistance zone. A breakout could propel it towards $126 or higher, while rejection could bring the stock back to test $116-$115. Conclusion: AMD's breakout signals short-term bullish momentum, but traders should watch the $120-$122 resistance closely. Gamma levels provide a clear framework for upside and downside targets. Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your research and trade responsibly.
NASDAQ:AMD
by BullBearInsights
Market Overview: AMD Sell Signal ConfirmationNASDAQ:AMD Market Analysis: AMD is currently showing a confirmed sell signal based on multiple timeframe indicators, including the Supertrend and RSI. The price opened at $115.28, and the analysis suggests a potential target of $103.34, signaling a possible decline of approximately 10.3%. This is an excellent opportunity for traders seeking short positions with clear risk/reward dynamics. The Supertrend indicator, a reliable trend-following tool, has confirmed downward momentum across several timeframes. Specifically, the 1-Hour, 15-Minute, 5-Minute, and 1-Minute charts are all aligned in bearish trends, providing strong confirmation for a sell entry. Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on shorter timeframes (1-Min, 5-Min, and 15-Min) indicates that AMD is currently in overbought conditions, which adds further strength to the sell signal. The 4-Hour Supertrend provides additional confirmation of the bearish sentiment, supporting the idea of a downward movement over the next few days.
NASDAQ:AMDShort
by krossis1995
1
AMD at BUY ZONES with EarningsAMD is at an Inflection Point. Upcoming Earnings and Company Forecasting will determine bearish continuation or rebound. Currently at my 1st buy zone at 200 EMA + is also at VWAP from 2021 High and 2022 low. Downside: with 17% downside to 2nd Strong Buy Zone around $95. - Technical Indicators: Oversold with Bullish Divergence on RSI, MACD, STOCH, -Timeline: concurrent with downtrend timescale from previous draw (over 300 days) ^$^ I have begun accumulation buying shares and selling puts. *I hope to see $95 and $75 with further accumulation and holding to sell at $160 (39% gain at current price) , $180 (56%) , $220 (91%) + keeping 25% shares for long term portfolio. -News: Downgrades "conservative PC and traditional server unit outlook—and modest growth for data center graphics processing unit (GPUs), possible exporting regulations & lower exposure to AI compared to competition. Positives: outsourced manufacturing model, as its tight relationship with industry leader Taiwan Semiconductor TSM enabled it to grab a technological lead when rival Intel INTC stumbled with its internal manufacturing road map. AMD’s data center business should boom over the next few years. Its server central processing units should be in high demand, as should its GPUs suited for AI workloads. All information opinions & analysis welcome- good trading
NASDAQ:AMDLong
by Black_Sheep1
Short AMDI remain short AMD after this major pivot. NVDA simply will continue to outperform this company and the stock based compensation relative to cash flows for AMD is pretty bearish/reckless. Key zone 1 has been rejected after an attempt at a strong bounce, I believe the next test will also fail and the monthly demand zone will capture. This is about another 15% downside. I expect the BBWP to cool off buy the stochastic RSI to heat up momentarily before the next rejection of zone 1. Note a falling average volume as well. This is a great stock to hedge an aggressive growth portfolio with through puts, alongside other majors like PLTR. My plan: Put spreads March 100-105
NASDAQ:AMDShort
by Apollo_21mil
AMD - good DCA candidateAMD has dropped close to 50% from it's all time high, during the height of the AI exuberance. It's now in a speakerphone pattern and has entered the Golden Pocket Fibonacci retracement level. I believe this is a good opportunity to start a position, using a DCA approach, in the hope it drops more for further accumulation. It could well drop another 20-30% from here, where I would add more for a long term hold. If you're bullish on AI and if we are indeed in the early innings of a new industrial revolution, AMD presents an excellent opportunity to get in on the longer term growth of this cyclical trend. It's true AMD is no Nvidia but the upside potential for Nvidia is far less that AMD. Looking back at the price action, you will notice similar patterns have played out before a strong push to the upside. This is not financial advise, do what's best for you.
NASDAQ:AMDLong
by NoFOMO_
4
AMD bearish price targetAMD has failed to hold support after failing to breakout of the descending trend line. The preferred price target would now be $94, which is the 61.8% retracement of the move up from $54.5 to ATHs, as well as the 1 to 1 extension of the move down from the ATH to $122 from $173. Price is however now sitting at the 200W EMA. Should price show a bullish reaction next week, the move down to $94 may not play out. Conversely, confirmation for the move down would be obtained with a breakdown of the EMA.
NASDAQ:AMDShort
by andrewyu02
1/10/25 - $amd - Opening 2.5% position as of open1/10/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:AMD Opening 2.5% position as of open copy/pasting my chat w D on the USSA's day off for dead prez. bc situation fluid, but want to do this timely. AMD is a buy here in a YE context. will size up closer to $100 is TL;DR V the short answer is we're probably much closer to a floor than where stock will be in a 1-2Y context. interestingly they spend a massive amt of $ on a relative basis (e.g. as a % of revenue) vs. peers on R&D. for perspective NVDA is ~7-8 bn last year, amd is approaching 6 bn. so optically this "hurts" EBITDA mgn, cf generation etc. etc. and stock looks relatively more expensive. but given su's ties to jensen (cousins i believe), what she's done w the biz, their now will-be leadership in x86 and move into more interesting applications (datacenter)... the GM should begin to flex sooner than later - so the right bogey (if there's confidence here in leadership) is probably not a '25 # but a '26 figure. should we not see any ST hiccups in 25 the stock will be a double between here and YE '26. it's objectively cheap considering execution risk. this is a tough one for me - i've been trading AMD since the late '90s (albeit with less experience vs. today) and caused me to ultimately short it on that meteoric rise it had in the last 5-10y only to realize... something was different. zooming out - it's hard to deny execution has been good (they've basically dethroned intc from a technical advantage going back several years, and they have a capable team attacking new surfaces). given trump, china, high 10Y rates etc. etc. nevermind it's been a weaker semi into year end '24 and to start this year... it's unclear beyond a broader sector reversal what fundamental factors/ announcements will move the stock decisively and effectively putting a true floor on the stock. if your downside is say 20% or maybe at most 25% here, but upside (from same pt here ~$120) is also 20-25% with decent degree of confidence given cash gen, not expensive etc. etc. but where upside scenario is 100% in 2Y and downside scenario still might only be 35-40%... it's clearly a "buy". now what size is critical. do you run a concentrated book ( NYSE:TSM and NASDAQ:NVDA will lead), can you rotate out of winners into laggards these are all portfolio decisions that depend on factors, mostly personal. but if you asked me point black "is it a buy, yes or no". the answer is, yes. i might copy this answer b/c i've gotten this question from like 5 ppl in the last 5 days lol but haven't spelled it out in so much detail. i'd also like to understand if anyone has a real information edge here , or where we should be looking. i'd guess gross margin (and by extension gross profit) will be the main driver of stock as it portends successful use of R&D spend and CF flex w/ growth. in that vein, you could probably put this at 3% fcf and with such high growth "re-rate 30-50%" into year end (from current levels). near $100 the stock is a 5% position, esp if it's only market related beta sell off e.g. trump comes in and everything gets whacked immediately on some tariff news or anti-china blah blah etc. that's an ez size up. my guess is it's probably worth a 1% spot here with a wait and see approach to take it to 1.5% (even higher nevermind lower) and if we do get some 10-15% further pullback, 3% makes sense and any additional 5% probably should add 1% per 5%. in other words you're at 5% at close to $100 give or take with great risk reward for that capital to remain patient for the year. hope that helps give my POV.
NASDAQ:AMDLong
by VROCKSTAR
1
AMD Weekly Chart Support and Resistance Levels: Key Support: AMD has found strong support around the $115-$120 zone, as marked on the chart. Resistance Target: The upside target is set at $177, representing a potential 46% gain if the stock reclaims higher levels. Indicators: SMA 20 and SMA 50: The price is currently below both the SMA 20 ($143.19) and SMA 50 ($136.60), indicating a bearish trend in the medium term. However, this could shift if AMD breaks above these levels in the coming weeks. RSI (14): RSI is at 38.41, indicating the stock is approaching oversold territory. This could signal a potential reversal if buyers step in. Volume: The volume has remained steady, but any significant breakout or breakdown would need to be confirmed by higher-than-average trading volume. Risk/Reward: Risk: The stop loss is set just below the $115 support level to minimize downside exposure. Reward: The target price of $177 offers a favorable risk/reward ratio of over 2:1. Market Context: AMD is currently consolidating after a substantial decline from its peak. This setup might attract buyers looking for a technical bounce or a reversal pattern.
NASDAQ:AMDLong
by Missmoyeu
1
AMD: Ready to Break Out – Confluence Supports and Bullish PatterI’ve already written a weekly analysis on NASDAQ:AMD , which you should read before this one, as it explains the broader technical and fundamental support in the bigger picture. Looking at the 4-hour chart, we can see the more granular movement of the stock over the last few months. The fact that we held the trendline, which has been in place since 2023, is a good sign that overarching algorithms still have an interest in the stock. The trendline also corresponds to a so-called "confluence support," where multiple support levels overlap. 1. Trendline Trendlines alone are not reliable price action structures, as they are often broken during consolidations without affecting the overall trend. However, since this trendline is older, has been tested multiple times, and now coincides with other support levels, it serves as one of several building blocks. 2. Fibonacci Retracement We hit the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (horizontal yellow line) exactly and bounced upward from there. The 61.8% Fib is always a good reversal point during pronounced consolidations, as we’ve seen here. AMD has been consolidating since March 2024, over nine months now. 3. Horizontal Support In addition to the Fibonacci retracement, the price range between $117 and $121 was already a support area. This zone has been a support and resistance level since September 2021 and has consistently prompted strong price reactions. 4. Descending Wedge The current leg down is forming a descending wedge, which breaks upward in more than two-thirds of cases, making it a bullish pattern. The target for a breakout is typically the highest point of the wedge, which currently means a target around $170. However, a conservative trader always plans more cautiously, so we’ve combined our target with the last gap close. 5. Gaps While not a proper support level, the still-open daily gaps at $137 and $158 act as magnets for higher prices. These gaps lie along the path upward and make good spots to place take-profit levels. Fundamental Reasons AMD's Position: With the launch of the MI300 series, AMD has taken a significant step toward competing with NVIDIA in the AI GPU market. These chips are optimized for high-performance computing and generative AI. Potential: In Q3 2024, AMD generated $1.5 billion in revenue from the data center segment, a 42% year-over-year growth. This growth is expected to accelerate further in 2025 due to AI applications. Market share: AMD has consistently gained market share from Intel in the CPU market, especially in the server segment. According to Mercury Research, AMD’s server CPU market share rose from 23.4% in Q3 2023 to 26.5% in Q3 2024. Forecast : With the planned launch of Zen 5 processors in H2 2025, AMD is expected to gain even more market share, driven by improved performance and energy efficiency. EV Market: Additionally, the electric vehicle market, after weaker years in 2023 and 2024, is expected to regain momentum. This will significantly impact the semiconductor market as a whole.
NASDAQ:AMDLong
by LGNDRY-Capital
3