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CITI trade ideas

Citigroup Is Seen to Have an 18% Upside PotentialJPMorgan, Citigroup and Wells Fargo are going to publish their quarterly earnings reports on Friday.JPMorgan’s Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be at $3.03 and its revenue is forecasted to be $29.89 billion. Wells Fargo is expected to report EPS at $1.12 and revenue at $18.9 billion, while Citigroup is seen to report EPS at $1.38, and revenue at $16.75 billion.According to Refinitive polls the strongest upside potential is expected to be seen from the Citigroup stocks at $80.47 per share, or with an uprise of 18.72% of the current prices.  Let’s look closer at the technical incentives of this possible spike. Firstly, stocks are moving within the upward trend that started in March 2020, and the last time this trend line has reached was at the end of 2021. The recent upside wave started on December 20, 2021. However, the upside potential at the moment is limited by the resistance line of the junior downside trend from February 2021. This junior trend was approached by the price from the downside for the fourth time. This increases the chances of a possible breakthrough. Once successful, if the price surpasses the $68.70-69.00 area, it would lead the price to the previous highs at $80-83 per share. The last time Citigroup stock prices were located at $80.29 and at $80.70 was in June 2021 and January 2018 respectively. The all-time high for the stock prices was established at $83.11 in January 2020. So, technically there are no reasons to stop the climb after stock prices would break above $69.00 per share. However, even the ongoing attempt of a breakthrough would be less successful this time so Citigroup stocks should not be left behind, as they may perform a short downside correction to $64.50-65.00 to the crossing of the EMA21 and EMA55 moving averages on the daily chart. From this zone buy operations could be resumed as the next attempt of an upside breakthrough could finally succeed.
NYSE:CLong
by scavoanastasiia
1
Citi - A Conservative InvestmentReally interesting while all banks are doing great, and there is this sole company that lagged so much behind everyone, including the banking sector ETF: XLF. Because of that, I think it's a good idea to research a little bit about Citi. So based on statistics, given a 99% level of confidence, Citi is clearly sharing a similar pattern as XLF, but less gain, more loss. While examining the PE ratio, I noticed it was almost as close as the 2020 low. From the trend perspective, it looks like a descending wedge in my opinion, and with earnings coming, I think it's a good idea to start watching this stock. As it fell to the lower edge of the wedge, I am more optimistic about its outlook and am aiming for a target price of 63(conservative), and 68ish for a more aggressive move. I see the banking industry doesn't pay that well, but I personally believe the "expected return" ratio would be higher compared to the tech sector, as there really isn't too much risk involved at all. - By Qtaro
NYSE:CLong
by Kujo_Qtaro
2
Rectangle TopThis has broken to the downside after violating the bottom trendline of the rectangle. Target possible listed below but is getting close to the 100% fall from the rectangle. The width of the rectangle is used to project targets. It is a guesstimate only. Price can fall further or less than the 100% mark. A bear flag formed before the break of the bottom trendline of the rectangle which represents support until broken. It is now resistance. C broke the bottom trendline on the 5th touch. Bullish candle today. No recommendation
NYSE:C
by lauralea
Citigroup | Fundamental AnalysisCitigroup CFO Mark Mason lately visited the GS financial services conference and noted that the bank would suspend its share buybacks in Q4. This hidden comment took many shareholders by surprise. Part of the thesis of needing to own Citigroup now is that the bank can buy back a large number of shares as long as the stock is trading below book value (TBV), which is what the bank would be worth if it were liquidated. In case a bank buys back shares below TBV, the math works so that TBV goes up, and bank shares usually trade relative to TBV, so a rise in TBV is very good for the stock in the long run. The ability to buy back shares below TBV is rare, so investors were excited that Citigroup would be able to grab this opportunity while eliminating all of the bank's other problems and planning a new growth path. Let's take a look at why the bank was forced to suddenly suspend share buybacks and what this implies for the stock going forward. Banks are complex organizations, and they have numerous rules about how much capital they must hold in reserve for all their operations that could lead to losses (such as loans). In 2022, another intricate regulatory rule, called the standardized approach to assessing counterparty credit risk (SA-CCR), will come into force. Basically, the SA-CCR will require large banks like Citigroup to modify the way they calculate the risk associated with derivatives contracts. As you know, derivatives, which are financial instruments such as mortgage-backed securities, played a role in the Great Depression. The overall result of the SA-CCR is that most large banks will see an expansion in risk-weighted assets (RWA). Banks hold regulatory capital based on accumulated RWA, so if their internal regulatory capital ratio is 10% or 11% and then the RWA grows, they must hold more regulatory capital to maintain that ratio. And the more regulatory capital a bank holds in reserve, the less money it has left to invest in the business or distribute capital, such as paying dividends or repurchasing shares. Mason said the SA-CCR would result in a $60 billion to $65 billion increase in RWAs, which could require Citigroup to hold an additional 0.50-0.60 percent of its regulatory capital. That's not an inconsequential amount. Curiously, however, I haven't heard of any other major banks that have suspended share buybacks because of the SA-CCR despite the need to increase RWA. This may have been the case with Citigroup because the bank has embarked on a strategy update with many moving parts. For example, the bank is exiting 13 global consumer banking franchises as part of a broader idea to wind down areas where it does not have enough scale to compete and is instead investing in the bank's higher-margin businesses. Citigroup announced in the fourth quarter that it was winding down its consumer banking franchise in South Korea, which could result in costs of up to $1.5 billion. Citigroup posted a $680 million pre-tax loss in the third quarter due to the sale of its Australian consumer banking operations. Mason said the fourth quarter will be something of an "anomaly" when it comes to the bank's capital return philosophy and share buybacks, especially mentioning SA-CCR and expenses for Korea. Since SA-CCR requires an increase in RWA, and Korea expenses affected earnings this quarter, the bank may have run out of room over its target regulatory capital ratio to be able to conduct the stock buyback it originally planned. The suspended stock buyback is disappointing because it appears that management either didn't plan the capital buyback very well or didn't effectively communicate that information to shareholders. Mason said the bank will resume share buybacks next quarter at the level of the third quarter, which also fell a bit short of investors' expectations in terms of Citigroup's buyback volume. With Citigroup trading at such a low stock price and now well below TBV, the bank should buy back as much stock as possible. With the poor track record that Citigroup has had over the previous years, it really can't afford to make such mistakes because shareholders are sick of it. However, analysts still believe in the renewal strategy and the Citigroup story. But that's mainly because a bank with the kind of U.S. deposit market share that Citigroup acquired and its successful investment banking unit shouldn't be trading so below book value.
NYSE:CShort
by FOREXN1
Citigroup Inc: A model worth + 10%In my personal opinion Citigroup Inc. is a wonderful investment for the time being. The whole banking sector is performing very well and they are reporting wonderful profits. Citigroup Inc. is doing the same thing as well as it keeps reporting strong profits and from the other side, the dividends are not bad at all $0.51 per share or 3.05%. As we can see from the chart the price tested the lower part of a very strong support area. By evaluating the previous Harmonic pattern the price bounced more then+10%. So we can see the same scenario repeating again. Target: $73.73 to $74.60 Thank you and Good Luck!
NYSE:CLong
by KlejdiCuni
15
RectangleMid rectangle is 70.30 and can be a good stop for whichever way you think this may go, up or down. A break of support. or the bottom trendline would be a downward break. This is a consolidation pattern and price may remain inside for quite some time but eventually, the market will make a decision. A rectangle is a neutral pattern and needs 5 touches, 3 to one trendline and 2 to the other. This one is trying to touch for the fifth time. It can go up and down inside for a while though, Possible bear flag. No recommendation
NYSE:C
by lauralea