COST trade ideas
Long $COST on overreaction Long Costco on market overreaction to 170 and I'll leave some on and aim for 180.
COSTCO WEEKLY REVIEWLarge knee-jerk selloff + July 4th weekend coming up + historical precedence = good entry opportunity
TRADE IDEA: COST JULY 21ST 155/158/175/178 IRON CONDORAfter news of AMZN's acquisition of WFM, COST's implied volatility has popped here, with its implied volatility rank ramping up to the 67th percentile over the preceding 52-week period, and with background implied volatility at 21%, making a premium selling play potentially worthwhile.
Metrics:
Probability of Profit: 64%
Max Profit: $93/contract
Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: $207/contract
Break Evens: 157.07/175.93
Theta: 1.96
Delta: -2.47
As an undefined risk alternative, the July 21st 150/175 short strangle is going for 2.35 at the mid with a probability of profit of 71%, BE's at 155.65/177.35, theta 8.85, delta -3.91.
Notes: Because I could potentially see this snapping back to the upside, you may want to skew the setup to the call side, narrow the call side spread to reduce call side risk, or otherwise put on a limited upside risk play (e.g., July 21st 160/173/175 Jade Lizard, 1.95 credit at the mid, BE's at 158.05/174.95). With the Jade Lizard, upside risk is limited to .05 (the width of the call side spread (2.00) minus the credit received (1.95) ... .
$COST 171.6 possible V from here, support 169.7, stop 163$COST 171.6 possible V from here, support 169.7, stop 163
Bullish On Costco, But Earnings FirstOn May 17, Costco bounced off of its reoccurring support level. This has been solid support since August 2015. Costco also has earnings in focus this week. The estimated EPS is nearly where it was during the previous quarter's EPS which was a massive miss. A similar massive miss this time around will yield the analysis contained herein almost worthless. However, positive earnings and forecasts should easily meet the projection in this article.
When we take a look at other technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 47.4805. RSI tends to determine trends, overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. Currently the RSI is relatively neutral and it could go any direction.
The true strength index (TSI) is currently 11.2060. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The current reading declares the stock has been moving down for the past two weeks.
The positive vortex indicator (VI) is at 0.9097 and the negative is at 0.9696. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. Currently the negative and positive indicators are moving closer together, with the positive moving up. With continued upward movement of this indicator the stock will go with it.
The stochastic oscillator K value is 16.3099 and D value is 9.6028. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals and short-term activity. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. The stochastic is currently oversold and should move up soon.
Considering the RSI, TSI, VI and stochastic levels, the overall direction favors a move to the upside. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the current position, the stock could gain at least 3.33% over the next 19 trading days if not sooner. The major hurdle for this movement will be from the earnings released this week.
$COST Preps For Triple Top Breakout...Shares of Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ:COST) and hammering on a triple top breakout. The level is $169 and if Costco can blow through that level, it has significant upside, maybe as high as $200. Don't jump the gun and buy Costco before it breaches the level as it may not breakout, instead collapsing lower. This is a possible breakout, not a breakout that has taken place. Check out the stock chart below.
View my documented and VERIFIED performance right here: verifiedinvesting.com
COSTCO just broke out, bullishCOST just broke out of a nice symmetrical triangle and that's what i was waiting like i said in my notes. If the stock go up tomorow morning around 164.18, i will be looking to buy the stock. When we see a nice breakout from a triangle like that with a strong candle and with strong volume that shows there is great buying pressure, this is why im looking to go long. There is a long resistance line and this is why i want the stock to move above to confirm the direction of the trend. My thoughts are that the stock will probably break that resistance and then will go up for a 2-3 days, after that the stock will retrace around 164 as resistance become support and then will bounce and keep moving higher close to new all time high.
A Little Far-fetched but Why Not?You can create a strategy around this if the roller-coaster keeps going, I just can't think of any earth-shaking revelations or headline risk that can derail the ride, trade safe!
COST: Buy out of the money calls for a monthWe have a pretty low risk trade here. You can look to buy way out of the money calls for dirt cheap after the earnings report for $COST. Upside is crystal clear. Even though this stock isn't such a good value pick, as say, $KSS (which has been nothing short of amazing so far), it's still a good contender to catch up to the retail rally it's been lagging.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
Playing COST for an earnings popLots of stored upside energy in this one. I have already picked the long side for 'pot-odds'. A reversal and pop will pay off better than a continuation of the ABC correction
Costco COST update6 days ago I posted on a short trade on COST - Here is the update Target 1 hit. As we are in the blue zone now I will watch the price action carefully but would like to think the next target of 144.72 is achievable also. We'll see :)
Costco ( COST ) Timing & level very close. Another leg down?I like it when price recognises my predictive trend lines, drawn when the high was put in on August 15th. Even better when it has been acting as a resistance angle. The black dashed vertical line here represents time. It's not telling me direction but suggests that's when another bout of momentum should kick in when price reaches it. The blue box is where I would expect price to reach before COST can take a breather and then think about a move up from there. As price has not dipped to the blue box yet, I'd prefer a short stock or long PUT from this level with targets at the red horizontal lines.
COST needed to be revisited at this levelNeutral to bullish at these level. RSI 21.96, 8EMA 158.34 This chart is due for a relief rally
Overall industry breakdown makes COST a potential candidate for Overall industry breakdown makes COST a potential candidate for short. In the technical side it is rolling over from a double top and broke Upward trend. Money-flow is heading down. We think it can decline to 140 area.
You can check our detailed analysis on COST in the trading room/ Executive summery link here-
www.screencast.com
Time Span: 18:00”
Trade Suggestion Date: Aug 26th
Trade Status: Pending/Watchlist
