HD trade ideas
$HD BEARISH PERSPECTIVE GOING INTO EARNINGS.We must have a look at the Bearish perspective on HD as we go into the much anticipated retailers earnings reports this week. Spring is like christmas to Home Depot, home improvements , and in particular planting season for gardener, this year however, mother nature has not been kind which will have a impact on earnings.
Secondly, longer term is it possible the end is in sight for this economic cycle, house prices have started to stagnate and HD is very much dependant on continued homes sales .
Home depot is also very highly leveraged with debt, which has been overlooked as growth and revenues have increased, this will be to the forefront if growth stalls.
From a charting perspective, things to consider=
We could still be in correction and entering into the C wave
RSI uptrend has broken since early may
B Bands signal downside risk
7/12/26 mas all negative.
Possibility of a major H&S forming from Jan 18
Wait, yall are bullish on this!?About to break the 50 and crash straight to that 200. thats 157-158ish. SHORT this horse selling relic.
THE WEEK AHEAD: HD, HPQ EARNINGS; ASHR, GDXJ, EEM PREMIUMEARNINGS:
HD (33/24) announces earnings on Tuesday before market open; HPQ (68/38), Thursday after market close.
Although the rank/implied metrics are less than stellar, pictured here is an HD June 21st 180/185/200/205 iron condor paying 2.13 (1.06 at 50 max), expected move break evens, and delta/theta metrics of -2.22/2.96.
Alternative Trades:
June 21st 180/205 short strangle, 2.48 credit (1.24 at 50 max), one standard deviation move break evens, 4.33/9.35 delta/theta metrics.
HPQ is a bit hard to work with given its size, which imply that the only way you'll get paid to play is via short straddle. The June 21st 19 is paying 1.60 (.40 at 25 max), with expected move break evens and delta/theta metrics of -5.00/2.23.
Alternative Trades:
June 21st 18 short put (bullish assumption; potential acquisition play), .45 credit, 29.78 delta, cost basis of 17.55 if assigned (a 7.9% discount over where the stock was trading at Friday close).
EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS SORTED BY RANK/IMPLIED
Top 5 By Rank: ASHR (57/30), GDXJ (50/28), EEM (41/21), GDX (40/34), SMH (37/29).
Top 5 By Implied: OIH (34/34), EWZ (27/34), XOP (22/31), XBI (35/31), ASHR (57/30).
We're a bit close in time for June setups (33 days) and a bit far out for July (61), so would probably wait until the July monthly is closer in time in the absence of absolutely desperation to pile on theta to burn ... .
$HD Possible long term H&S$HD Possible long term H&S
Monitor for a close below $193 support level. Next key supports at $180 then $170.
ER coming up late May
Note: Informational, not investment advice.
$HD Home depot is Amazon proof. Great long hold.There is just somethings you got to go to a store for, every spring we jump in the car with the wife to get those plants and fertilizers etc etc etc, come home plant them and let then die as usual, then next spring back to Home Depot and buy they same things over and over, Lazy gardeners are Home depots best friends in spring. When we decide there is a project that we can do ourselves rather that hire a professional of we go to Home depot for great advice and a truck load of material delivered. Amazon can not offer this sort of service and never will, materials are heavy, costly to transport, costly to warehouse and distribute but mainly it is free advice that is key to our relationship with HD.
Finding some resistance at Fib ext lvlif it breaks that 38 lvl, I will expect HD to go at least to 214 without a problem if the market continues to show this strenght
a) 1985 - presentPatterns observed in various homebuilder stocks, not limited to Home Depot, run concurrent with anticipated cyclical moves in US and International housing markets. A move down to the solid black trendline, within 2 years, would validate our overall macro view.
HD: Bottom breakout, support to sustain gains ahead of earningsHD broke out and above the short term resistance levels of a bottom completion area. This bottom is an intermediate-term bottom formation. The breakout has support to sustain the gains and is occurring ahead of the earnings season which provides potential for a pre-earnings run which tend to be fueled by pro traders, who provide sustainable momentum runs.
$HD Home Depot Golden Cross - Bullish Options Activity$HD Home Depot - Golden cross on the daily chart appears imminent (50d/200d crossover). Forming bullish channel that began with the Xmas eve bottom. Monitor for breakout above $185 for confirmation.
Unusual bullish options activity - Over 16k $110.00 strike Jan'2020 calls traded today for total premium of $120M. These are deep in-the-money, expensive contracts trading for over $7k a piece.
Medium term target - $205.00-$210.00 range by late April
Note: Informational, not investment advice.
HD - trade setups Here are 2 possible exits on todays trade for HD. HD missed earnings, so 2 hard stops are the 100MA on the daily and the 100MA on the weekly. If we blow buy the daily the weekly should be the final stop for the day.
Home Depot Warning on 2019Home Depot's earnings out this morning,missed analyst estimates,
with the company warning on 2019 slowing earnings guidance.
I had been short term bullish on HD previouslyin its most recent run towards 200,
However with this warning today,
and the stocks reaction to the news in pre market trading
I have changed my opinion to bearish.
Also note that RSI was not supporting the recent advance in the stock
and the Chaikin Money Flow Indicator CMF, shown here
shows that selling was overwhelming buying despite it's recent advance.
The is a large cap bellweather Dow stock.
Pay attention to what they are telling you.
HD 185.57 Last
THE_UNWIND
2/26/19
Mountains/New York
THE_UNWIND
