HOG trade ideas
Mean reversionWhen 200ema is almost flat, i can see that the price is range bound.
Harley Davidson is in an obvious downtrend channel.
After better than expected earning, it gaps up near channel top.
It would be interesting to see if price can have another gap up to break channel top and test 200ema.
My short order is welcoming at:
1. 64
2. 65.5
3. 67
Bear plans to backpack by Harley DavidsonA mid-term trendline from Oct 2012 has been broken on end of July 2014. Price attempted a retest but was rejected by the support turned resistance trendline as well as cushion between 8ema & 20ema
Currently, it formed a triple top and price just hang on 60.54. A break below that would signal at least a mid-term bear market with first target profit of 55.5 and the second 50
My short was triggered at 64.50
Early Bearish Signs ... Is #HarleyDavidson Petering Out? | #NYSEFriends,
Cruising around the NYSE charts, my predictive analysis and forecasting system pointed to a potential bear, seen in Harley Davidson's stck ($HOG - #NYSE).
First, a recent relief rally occurred, but failed to carve a new structure high. instead, it fell square into a price range I had defined as "EAGLE" (for Extremely AGgressive Level of Entry for a counter-trend opportunity). Since then, price rolled right at the level (today) where an early bearish market reversal signal is getting ready to print. I expect that a further slide in price might sound that bearish alarm.
For the time being, two potential targets have emerged as the signal remains pending, namely:
1 - TG-1 = 54.50 - 26 MAR 2014, moderate probability, corresponding to an occult geometry support level
and
2 - TG-2 = 48.82 - 26 MAR 2014, moderate probability, corresponding to a potential proprietary Great White Pattern
As indicated above, the system can produce directional signs of market reversal, but until a signal is generated, it remains just that: a sign.
OVERALL:
This trader's directional bias is bearish, whereas the predictive analysis and forecasting system is neutral to bearish, based on potential bearish signs defined above. More on this as the market unfolds.
Cheers,
David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis and Forecasting
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- Remember to remain dubious about every and any thing I say. All comments are subjective perceptions based on unshared, proprietary and common knowledge of fundamental analysis, classic technical analysis, basic and advanced pattern trading, as well as personal research in occult market geometries, predictive analysis and quant-based forecasting, some or none of which is being shared in my trading profiles, so do your due diligence and review the disclaimer below.
- Forecasts, analyses and directional opinions generated herein are for educational purposes only and are not trading recommendations. We trust that you will do your own due diligence first, then seek professional advice from a licensed professional, then enter the market at your own perils - David Alcindor - TradingView.com Alias: 4xForecaster
