IPCO trade ideas
$IP International Paper Co. on verge of breakoutEntry level $47.88 = Target price $53.53 = Stop loss $46.55
Stock on the verge of breaking out from congestion phase.
Bullish golden cross.
P/E ratio 13.78
Yield 4.43%
3.26 short interest.
International Paper Co. engages in the manufacture of paper and packaging products. It operates through the following segments: Industrial Packaging, Global Cellulose Fibers, and Printing Papers. The Industrial Packaging segment involves in the manufacturing of containerboards, which include linerboard, medium, whitetop, recycled linerboard, recycled medium, and saturating kraft. The Global Cellulose Fibers segment offers cellulose fibers product portfolio includes fluff, market, and specialty pulps. The Printing Papers segment includes manufacturing of the printing and writing papers. The company was founded by Hugh J. Chisholm in 1898 and is headquartered in Memphis, TN.
Bearish on IPOver the 2 weeks, we've been spotting red flags in IP as buyers started to struggle to prop it up, expecting the 44 support to break down soon. Sure enough, we are seeing a clean move downwards the past trading session and I am expecting to see more sellers piling in seeing a target price at the 40 psychological support where some short covering can happen
IP approaching resistance, potential drop! IP is approaching our first resistance at 49.59 (horiozntal overlap resistance, 38.2%, 50% fibonacci retracement) where a strong drop might occur below this level to our first support at 37.78 (horizontal swing low support).
Stochastic (21,5,3) is also approaching resistance where we might be seeing a corresponding drop in price.
International Paper Company (IP) Buy levelI think with the long awaited war against plastic this company has great potential to grow.
The company depends heavily on raw materials such as wood fiber, purchased in the form of pulpwood, wood chips and old corrugated containers (OCC), and certain chemicals, including caustic soda and starch, and energy sources, principally natural gas, coal and fuel oil. Elevated input costs are likely to limit margins in the near term. Further, distribution costs have been on the rise of late due to very tight truck and rail availability, and higher diesel fuel costs. This is likely to affect margins in the near term. Moreover, the company is set to incur elevated operational costs in the Printing Papers, primarily because of unfavorable foreign currency translation.
IP Approaching Resistance, Potential Drop! IP is approaching our first resistance at 49.59 (horizontal pullback resistance, 50%, 38.2% fiboancci retracement) where a strong drop might occur below this level pushing price to our major support at 37.78 (horizontal swing low support).
Stochastic 21,5,3) is also approaching resistance where we might see a corresponding drop in price.
Short IP for next wave lowerThis 120m chart of IP shows the stock breaking trendline support and then holding a re-test of the trendline as resistance. Further, price action from the high looks to be a clear "5 down, 3 up" Elliott Wave pattern. Initiating a short position at 53.50 for a continuation lower, with a profit target at 43.50. A move above 60 would cause me to reevaluate the trade.
Dead Money, the Cycle is Vicious; Wait for the Recession (PT$60)Failed mergers, an industry where consolidation and change are struggling to bring shareholders value. There's a lot to be wanting to try and keep up with the current "value" market. However, International Paper will struggle fiercely to try and impress. Lowest fib level is what demonstrates the inability of the company to break out. We've now plunged under it and there is little reason to try and capitulate on the decreased momentum to raise awareness and emotion.
Let IP do what it will. Let it ride out with all the volatility in 2018. Wait for at least three catalysts this year to prop it up and let it stop bleeding in 2019 and find a decent entry point. After that, if the easy money is gone and we enter more volatility or the first strings of the recession orchestra, know that the paper and corrugated industry are eternal until we find a better medium to make a box and print. Not recession proof, but when everything is down and ALL companies still need packaging materials, your friends at IP can do little to look grand.