MAST trade ideas
MA - Long Mastercard new catalyst with APPLMastercard (MA) is powering the new Apple (APPL) credit card along with Goldman Sachs (GS). This provides a short term news cycle catalyst and a long term new growth opportunity and partner for Goldman, but more importantly Mastercard. Once the news settles on the Apple event it will be clear the real winner is Mastercard who stands to only gain from the relationship. Millennials and younger generations with their strong affiliation for Apple should be drawn to the card and it's unique benefits.
Apple Mastercard
www.apple.com
MA has support levels at 224 and 211, and should continue upward throughout the year barring in major Macro news.
The path of least resistanceMomentum in the MA moves has been slowing down. Minimally, it may retreat to the previous resistance level or to the dynamic short term volatility band.
MA IS THE KEY WAVE 1 OR X HAS ENDED MARKET TOPPING NOW We have ended or just about to end the uptrend for the short term I now look for a decline back into into a .382 over the next 8 td days I amout and flat I also covered small short in wti net loss.06 of 1 % I am net short 20% qqq and will add 10 % 178.09
The Mastercard TradeAfter the latest apple credit card news, MA stock is going up, and probably won't stop just now. I'm opening a long trade ( trend following ) on this one even though or usually don't trade stocks, ( due to the liquidity i prefer fx) but this one seems to be a big one. Analysts are saying that this credit card trend could grow a lot, not only with apple, but with other great brands that have extremely loyal customers, and the main card provider? you got i, Mastercard! I mean you could also analyse Visa and compare it to Mastercard but, let's be honest, everyone has a mastercard, imagine if every apple purchase would pass through one.
Going long with 2.2 RR ratio, waiting for P SAR reversal point. SL under support and TP with RR placement
Be cautious chasing MA higherThis is a daily chart of Mastercard showing its impressive three year rally from $80 to current levels. The pattern is an undeniable Elliott Wave impulsive move higher, with an extended Wave 3 on strong momentum. After breaking out of its base channel in 2017, the stock put in a near parabolic rally (even on a log-scale chart) to its Wave 3 high around $225. Following the September 2018 high, MA corrected in three waves, finding support at the midpoint of the prior trend channel. With price now making new highs, it seems likely that the stock is in Wave 5. Therefore, we expect to see a topping pattern in coming months as momentum fades. The resulting sell-off should take MA back into and through the trend channel, ultimately finding some level of support at the Wave 4 low around $175.
This setup is notoriously difficult to time, as MA could continue to grind higher in Wave 5 for an extended period of time. However, if you're currently holding long positions, now may be a good time to start scaling out and taking profits. We're watching the 61.8% Fibonacci extension level of Waves 1 + 3 vs. Wave 5 as a potential area of resistance.
$MA LONG MA is a great example of a strong stock. trending nice in this pattern, we are in a short term call position and will start unloading at 220 and then at previous high.
This is what tax cuts and buy backs look like.This is what tax cuts and buy backs look like.
"Return of Capital to Shareholders
For the full year of 2018, Mastercard repurchased approximately 26.2 million shares at a cost of $4.9 billion and
paid $1.0 billion in dividends. "
"During the fourth quarter of 2018, Mastercard repurchased approximately 4.4 million shares at a cost of $888
million and paid $259 million in dividends. Quarter-to-date through January 30, the company repurchased an
additional 4.0 millionshares at a cost of$773 million, which leaves $6.0 billionremaining undercurrent repurchase
program authorizations. "
MA Approaching First Resistance, Potential Drop! MA is approaching our first resistance at 205.38 (horizontal swing high resistance (Horizontal swing high resistance, 100% Fibonacci extension, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement) where a strong drop might occur below this level pushing price down to our major support at 193.51 (horizontal overlap support, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement).
Stochastic (89,5,3) is also approaching our resistance where we might see a potential drop in price.
MA: Expanding triangle formation with MACD divergenceWith every slowing economy comes the surge in credit cards charge-offs and MA is one of the most richly valued companies which I have looked at. Price action has been knocking around a bearish expanding triangle and held in check by the 240M 200-periods moving average with a negative MACD divergence. Not sure if I am early to the punch but downside potential is around the $1600 region which implies -c.17% downside.
MasterCard will slip off..3rd Head and Shoulders forming for MA and will surely come down hard to 180 target and might retest lows of 175s again. Credit section will fall this year and looking at financial banks to be caught on the slowdown since the economy will plateau and cause panic for financial markets. Next on my list is JPM and V stay tuned!
Short term BearishMomentum is slowing down.
Downtrend is healthy
Forming LL, LH, LL, LH
Short term Bearish.
I may open Bull Put Credit Spreads by the end of trading day tomorrow.
DTE = 45 days
Good luck to you.
WindowThe price is just going to close the window at around 203. If this would fail or when this will be done the trend shall continue.
MA has been oversoldMy quant model predicts
Profitability: it has a high probability(80%) to rebound at this level.
Worst Case: it could drop to $171.49
Money Management: Bet no more than 20% of capital
Suggested Strategy: long stock for 5 Days, wait and exit
Mastercard shares offer a buying opportunityMA shares have been a fabulous growth story for years. The sales, EPS, & div growth have been top notch and this pullback can be a great entry for a long-term outperformer.
