The Clarity of Renko'sThis is not a chart reading - and i'll keep it super short ... this is just a quick reminder that we have many powerful tools that we can use to enhance our analysis and trading outcomes.. too many that we sometimes forget to use them. The above chart shows a great example of that .. I was going thru the daily analysis and thought i should share this note with fellow TV chartists and traders.
The 2 panels show 2 identical charts, same time frame, same date range, same symbol and same indicators .. the only difference, the chart on the right hand side is a Renko
It's surprising to see how clearer the picture is when we analyze the chart and the price/volume action through the Renko lens. Taking for example, the 3 double/triple top formations and how they were expressed on both charts .. which chart is easier to action and trade?
so the quick note here is, let's not forget about these powerful tools - and continue to leverage them as much as possible - Before initiating the next trade, check your Renko :)
Note: most of my indicators and TA concepts are "Renko-friendly" ;)
Notes & comments ?
MSFT trade ideas
MICROHARD??We could see a slight uptick after the recent downward movement over the past few days. A double top did print at the $275 zone so we could see a possible downtrend form.
MSFT TA until 2030Facts:
* Bull run started very long time ago
* Monthly quadruple RSI divergence
* RSI overbought territory
* RSI channel decline clearly started
* Fib channel soon will reach 1.618
MICROHARD?Price recently broke a 2-month trendline today as well as forming a double top at the $275 zone. As of now, I'm looking for a retest of the 261.50 zone and a strong indicator signifying a continuation of this downward movement.
MSFT AnalysisPrice did not play out as analyzed last week. Was expecting price to mitigate the bearish POI at 286.51 before the drop. Price has broken market structure to the downside and I expect a continuation lower.
Microsoft 1H OutlookWide Pattern Coverage and Derived Price Levels:
Keeping in mind the narrative of upcoming FED tightening policy because CPI & PPI figures. Also many longer term investors were disappointed about the financial reports of MSFT CORP. This negative incentive sets general dilation of falling fractal which covers negative market intentions.
Fractal of Falling:
Net BSP (EMA Smoothed):
Constant Time Cycles:
Since a sharp downward movement has occurred I doubt that the market incentive is fully priced in. Unless price holds strong blue and does a little pullback followed by side trend till TimeFib 2.
I expect further fall to shake bears off the market to become bullish. A longer bearish wave would cover report induced sale but not recent negative economic reports.
Microsoft -> It's Now Or NeverHello Traders,
welcome to this free and educational multi-timeframe technical analysis .
On the weekly timeframe Microsoft stock just recently created an awesome double bottom and also already broke above the neckline confirming the weekly pattern.
As we are speaking the market is retesting the neckline of the double bottom which is now turned support so from a weekly perspective I just do expect the continuation towards the upside from here.
On the daily timeframe however the market is currently massively bearish and I definitely don't want to catch a falling knife so I am now just waiting for some bullish structure on the daily timeframe before I will look to enter longs to capitalize on the continuation towards the upside.
Thank you for watching and I will see you tomorrow!
You can also check out my previous analysis of this asset:
Harmonics & Fibonacci on MicrosoftNASDAQ:MSFT
Harmonics applied on NASDAQ:MSFT showed perfect results.
Still looking bearish from current position until it fills gap around 240-239 and takes support around 232 for further move.
Microsoft Bump and RunBreaking out of long term diagonal down trend and (potentially) turning resistance into support.
Looking for a breakout of cloud next. SL is bottom of cloud $244
MSFT PUTSBase on my View on Microsoft this year will be bumpy..
Not financial advice.
trade base on your own decissions
MSFT, Something interesting about to happenMicrosoft is now waiting for something to happen, specially with this GPT news and integration which makes the fundamental side interesting, adding an extra volatility to the stock. Right now after the breakout of the downtrend line and the MA 200 there was a rejection in the 280 zone, price is heading to the downtrend line and the MA 200 that are now powerful supports. If there is not a breakout of those supports and the WTO gets below the 0 section, the long side will be an appealing option with targets at 273.5, 280 and 293.
However, if price breaks such a powerful supports the decline will be the better option and we assess levels then.
W PatternPrice is falling after a long rally up.
I see a W but it does match up with a pattern I am familiar with.
It appears to have terminated at the 1.272 almost on the dot but the hump of the W did not hit the .786 which is the rule for a butterfly.
There is also a triangle that may provide support.
No recommendation.
Bearish Gartley -> Microsoft ShortI posted this Idea first last Friday
Tuesday we got a reverse candle on daily basis and Wednesday was the perfect chance to go short (@ 270. TP is 220.)
Furthermore there are problems with the new Bing-Bot plus the global tech layoffs (quadrupled since mid.January).
Is it “game over” for Microsoft's Activision acquisition?When two hugely successful companies join forces, the initial market response is not always a bullish one, and traders who follow company mergers and takeovers know the only thing to count on is volatility. But what about the long run? Should traders buy in early and wait for the big picture to move the markets?
What’s happened so far?
Microsoft (MSFT) made headlines in January after announcing a hefty $69 billion bid to acquire Activision Blizzard (ATVI), the largest video game developer of all time. The acquisition is Microsoft's biggest ever.
Despite the huge number, this isn't necessarily a crazy bet for Microsoft. Gaming was already a booming business before the pandemic, and lockdowns further increased its appeal.
Estimates put gaming revenue increases at over 20% in recent years, approaching a staggering $200 billion, which has attracted the attention of tech giants such as Apple, Netflix, Amazon, and, of course, Microsoft.
Traders have already seen movement on the charts since the announcement, but the deal isn’t done just yet, as competitor Sony raised concerns about the monopolization of the industry. This brings the UK's regulatory commission, Competition and Markets Authority (CMA), into play.
What the CMA says about Microsoft’s acquisition
The CMA is expected to announce its provisional findings soon, which could either clear the way for the mega-deal, or put an unappealable halt to it.
The CMA has expressed concerns that the takeover could lead to competition issues in the console and subscription market, as well as in the growing cloud gaming sector.
Microsoft's goal in acquiring Activision Blizzard is to add popular games like Call of Duty to its portfolio, which already includes the Halo franchise and Minecraft.
Regulators around the world are worried that Microsoft dominance may soon make it harder for rivals to access Activision's popular titles. The CMA's decision is significant, as UK courts rarely overturn CMA merger decisions, and if the deal is blocked, there is little recourse for Microsoft and Activision.
The CMA's ruling will come before decisions from the EU and the US Federal Trade Commission, which has sued to veto the transaction.
In the hopes of greasing the wheels, Microsoft offered to grant a 10-year license for Call of Duty to its rival Sony. But that doesn’t address the issue that all upcoming Activision titles may become XBOX exclusives, leaving Sony’s PS5 catching dust in the corner.
Conclusion
If Microsoft’s Activision acquisition goes through, MSFT stocks probably won’t make much movement. Even though the purchase is $69 Billion, the effect on the company's profitability won’t be seen anytime soon—if ever.
In contrast, Activision stock soared by 25% after the acquisition was announced.
If the deal is blocked, we may see those early investors pulling out, and a rather rapid correction for ATVI. Don’t forget, last year the CMA concluded that Meta's purchase of GIPHY would limit choice for social media users, and Meta was ordered to sell GIPHY, so it’s not such a stretch to imagine the deal getting canceled.
MSFT is an amazing company to trade either way, but consider focusing your research and analysis on ATVI in the coming weeks and months and be ready for the CMA decision.
- By Paul Reid
MSFT: Sell ideaAs you see on the chart we will have a big probability of a downtrend continuity.Thanks!
Microsoft Desc. Triangle ready to pop to $239.96Descending Triangle is forming on Microsoft.
Can we talk about the gaps and liquidity issues? Is it because of the broker TradingView is showing for the company?
It's shocking and one I avoid trading by all means.
Anyway, the bearish signs are there
21>7>200
RSI<50
Bearish bias
Target $239.96
ABOUT
Microsoft is a multinational technology company based in Redmond, Washington that was founded in 1975 by Bill Gates and Paul Allen.
The company's most famous product is the Microsoft Windows operating system, which is used by over a billion people worldwide.
Microsoft also develops and produces a wide range of other software products, including the Microsoft Office suite, the Edge web browser, and the Xbox gaming console.
It's value is over $2 trillion in market cap
And of course the company is a major player in the field of artificial intelligence (AI) and is working on a number of innovative projects, including chatbots, speech recognition, and machine learning.
MSFT This one is interesting..
I see two different patterns here..
The bearish pattern is a double top that would take us to 255 or daily 200ema.
The bullish pattern is a falling wedge - that would take us back to 272 gap close.
So which one is it?
If we drop below 260 that would be my entry for 255 target.
Anything above 260 isn't a good entry for a short.
For the bullish scenario any entry should be above trendline breakout. I prefer above 264 but if your a permabull 😉 you can jump the gun with a 260 stop loss.
Overall Msft will go In market general direction at this point but like aapl and tsla , msft sheer market cap can move the nasdaq.
I bought calls earlier on this after swinging short. Got stopped out late in the day
$MSFT breaks out of the major bull flagThe golden uptrend was broken and backtested twice. Now the red bull flag is broken which calls for new all time highs.
MSFT AnalysisPrice consolidated since my last analysis with many gaps recently. Price action is very unclear even on the lower timeframe. However, I do see many fair value gaps lower than the current price. Price could potentially fill these gaps before rallying into the final target for this uptrend.
MSFT Reaches Equilibrium within Its DowntrendPrimary Chart: Weekly Chart of MSFT Showing Down Trendline, 200-Week SMA, Key VWAPs and Fibonacci Levels
Microsoft Reaches a State of Equilibrium within Its Downtrend
Equilibrium means "a state of balance." Equilibrium has been reached precisely because MSFT is holding above long-term support, and below its primary downtrend resistance levels. It also has been acting bullishly (the failed breakdown today already discussed). SPX remains in a very tight triangle pattern, and this likely resolves soon (as the apex is approaching rapidly), perhaps after the February 1, 2023 FOMC. MSFT will likely follow suit with whatever direction SPX takes after that key decision. Markets seem to be interpreting every bit of news bullishly at the moment, giving even negative headline a positive spin. This should not be surprising, as markets do whatever they want, and this favors technical analysis. So markets may continue fighting the Fed even if nothing new is stated at the FOMC presser on February 1, 2023.
SquishTrade will briefly summarize key technical points concerning Microsoft Corporation NASDAQ:MSFT . This firm reported earnings yesterday after the closing bell. Initially, the stock popped vigorously on what appeared to be earnings that were not as bad as feared. But when it gave guidance on its earnings call, the firm fell just as violently. During trade today, however, the forces buoying markets helped MSFT recover back above its uptrend line that runs from early January 2023 lows. This "failed breakdown" is short-term bullish from a technical perspective.
Upside price targets have a lot of obstacles in their path given that the primary-degree downtrend remains intact from all-time highs in late 2021. Thus, any upside price target should be viewed as tenuous and conditional on substantial further progress in major indices (SPX / NDX). Upside price targets include two alternative Fibonacci and measured-move projections as well as major resistance from previous swing highs (blue rectangle) and down trendline resistance. Downside support remains at the 200-week SMA as well as the uptrend line off 2022 lows (dark blue).
Conditional upside price targets
1. If SPX breaks its triangle pattern (approaching its apex now) to the downside, upside price targets should be invalidated. The FOMC presser on February 1, 2023, may be a critical turning point for markets.
2. Provided markets continue pushing higher, with pivot-hopeful stocks leading the way, and provide SPX breaks above its triangle pattern even if only for a few weeks, MSFT can reach $254.67 (which it reached after hours yesterday after the earnings report), and the 200-day SMA also aligns with this level (not shown) as of today. The down TL also lies near this area. If the downtrend line is broken convincingly, $261-$263 can be considered a more aggressive upside target, with the most aggressive target around $270-$273.
3. Downside support remains at the blue uptrend line from 2022 lows. Shorter-term support at the parallel channel from January 6, 2023, lows is also important. This support held despite a volatile whipsaw below it today after earnings were reported.
Importantly, this post does not intend to imply that the Fed will pivot. No one knows when that happens, and the Fed has been stating that it intends to keep rates higher for longer, above 5% for all of this year. But mention of a pause by the Fed, or a discussion of a pause by the voting members, can fuel further rallies especially in technology stocks by participants who perceive this (perhaps incorrectly) as a pivot.
Summary of key technical evidence :
MSFT's weekly chart shows MSFT holding above an upward sloping 200-week SMA after piercing this long-term MA a couple of times.
But the down TL from MSFT's all-time high remains intact. In fact, MSFT's down TL has not been attacked the way that SPX and NDX's down trendlines have been in recent weeks.
Key VWAPs from all-time highs and from mid-August 2022 highs remain intact as well. The mid-August 2022 VWAP was resistance today, though barely so. The VWAP from the lows of 2022 was recovered today after a failed breakdown below it after earnings yesterday.
MSFT has been forming higher lows (and higher highs) since its low in 2022. An uptrend line can be drawn from the October 2022 low to the present price bar.
MSFT's candle this week has formed a doji—a technical signal of indecision (and equilibrium between buyers and sellers). This has followed large moves up and down in volatile trade after earnings were reported this week.
MSFT experienced a failed breakdown below recent support and the shorter-term uptrend channel after earnings. This is short-term bullish suggesting the possibility of further upside.
A major horizontal zone of resistance from 260-270 has rejected price firmly since late August 2022.
MSFT may follow the direction SPX takes out of its consolidation triangle, where price is rapidly nearing the triangle's apex.
Additional Charts
Supplementary Chart A
Notice how MSFT's price reclaimed the VWAP from the November 2021 low. That seems bullish. But it also failed at the anchored VWAP from the August 2021 high. That seems weak. This is yet additional evidence of the equilibrium between buyers and sellers, perhaps waiting to see if the Fed remains hawkish or if markets rally no matter what the Fed says, because the market has resolutely refusing to believe the Fed's dot plot anyway.
Supplementary Chart B
Notice this logarithmic linear regression channel's upper edge (+2 standard deviations) coincides with the downward trendline from the 2021 peaks as well as with the major area of resistance / supply (the blue rectangle shown).
Concluding Comments
Lastly, SquishTrade will address a few issues relating to the forces that appear to be at work as equities, including MSFT, rise higher despite bad news. It appears that markets are eagerly anticipating a Federal Reserve pivot or pause of some sort in the near future. There is some disconnect between what the Fed has said and what markets believe. Markets have priced in rate cuts later this year in fact, and the Fed's dot plot from the most recent FOMC meeting shows 5.1% as the terminal rate to be held throughout the entirety of 2023 with *no cuts anticipated.* Many believe that this Fed approach will soon change, as reflected by equity prices and Fed Fund futures pricing in rate cuts. Further, FOMO, combined with short covering, and CTAs that trade strictly with momentum in whatever direction, have driven prices near mid-December 2022 highs in the indices.
Disinflationary trends have caused investors to believe that inflation is history. While inflation may have reached its peak, certainty about whether it will return to the Federal Reserve's target of 2% remains elusive. Will sticky inflation keep monetary policy tight for the remainder of the year? Will the market be proved wrong and ultimately decline to new lows because the Fed's view is right and the markets are fighting the Fed? Will the Federal Reserve pause hikes and hold rates higher for longer until more evidence appears that inflation is well on its way to the target?
No one knows the answers to these questions, but they are relevant to what is happening in markets right now. If the market is wrong about inflation quickly returning to the Fed's target, or if the market is wrong about a "soft landing" (earnings and the economy not falling into a major downturn), then markets will quickly and viciously reach new lows. Until these become more apparent, expect prices to remain buoyed in MSFT and other major names.
Thank you for reading, and Happy New Year / Feliz Año Nuevo!
________________________________________
Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed.
Please note further that this technical-analysis viewpoint is short-term in nature. This is not a trade recommendation but a technical-analysis overview and commentary with levels to watch for the near term. This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice should price move beyond a level of invalidation. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. And countertrend or mean-reversion trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, is lower probability and is tricky and challenging even for the most experienced traders.
DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
Microsoft Ex-Dividend date on WednesdayMSFT has been on a bull run since it's 2023 bottom of $219.35 on 1/6/23. MSFT missed its Q2 December 2022 earnings revenue by -$240M and beat EPS by 3 cents. In its Q2 earnings conference call, MSFT guided lower for its Q3 March 2023 earnings forecast. Now lately everything AI has been on a speculative tear which includes ChatGPT OpenAI investment by MSFT. Tomorrow 2/14 is CPI so if the market goes up, it could be a sell higher opportunity. Friday's options data is roughly half puts and calls. Also, Wednesday 2/15 is Microsoft Ex-Dividend date which should bring investors selling pressure afterwards. pi RSI is overbought & pi RSI pattern looks similar to its run up on 8/17/22 Ex-Dividend date and TTCATR resistance levels are ahead. Taking all of this into consideration, I am posting MSFT as a short probability on or around this Wednesday 2/15. Here's MSFT 16hr ext (1 day) chart with important levels and options data:
SMA50 = 245
SMA100 = 241
SMA150 = 250
SMA200 = 254
TTCATR SMA20:
top = 283
R3 = 275
R2 = 267
R1 = 259
pivot = 250
S1 = 242
S2 = 234
S3 = 226
bottom = 218
2/17 expiry options data:
Put Volume Total 28,246
Call Volume Total 57,986
Put/Call Volume Ratio 0.49
Put Open Interest Total 254,904
Call Open Interest Total 235,546
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 1.08
3/17 expiry options data:
Put Volume Total 5,794
Call Volume Total 18,124
Put/Call Volume Ratio 0.32
Put Open Interest Total 199,425
Call Open Interest Total 261,863
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 0.76
4/21 expiry options data:
Put Volume Total 2,551
Call Volume Total 7,096
Put/Call Volume Ratio 0.36
Put Open Interest Total 96,267
Call Open Interest Total 112,208
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 0.86
$MSFT Flexing its musclesNo questions asked. I don´t care why but MSFT as well as NVDA (as most prominent examples) are counter trending vs the over all tech market.
$MSFT's chart is telling us the following story at the moment:
1. Breakout above the 10 EMA (M), which is a key threshold.
2. Breakout into 5 month highs.
3. Break of structure with a fresh higher high after the price failed to make new lows.
Caution:
1. The bar hasn't closed yet,
2. Price trading against a heavily congested area where the bears could step in.
3. No obvious trading set up yet. I Would need another breakout above the upcoming resistance to confirm the uptrend.
Manage risk! Manage risk! Manage risk!
Cheers,
Tenacious Tribe
Microsoft earnings tomorrowMicrosoft Q2 December 22' earnings are tomorrow 1/24 at 4:05pm. Microsoft (MSFT) reported Q1 September 2022 earnings of $2.35 per share on revenue of $50.1 billion. The consensus earnings estimate was $2.29 per share on revenue of $50.1 billion. Revenue grew 10.6% on a year-over-year basis. The company said during its conference call it expects Q2 revenue of $52.35 billion to $53.35 billion. Here's a MSFT 1 day chart with levels and options data:
Q2 December 2022 Consensus:
EPS = $2.29
Revenue = $53.48 B
SMA200 = $256
VWMA 20 TTCATR(beta):
top = $262
R3 = $255
R2 = $248
R1 = $241
pivot = $234
S1 = $227
S2 = $220
S3 = $213
bottom = $206
1/27/23 expiry options data:
Put Volume Total 13,459
Call Volume Total 66,070
Put/Call Volume Ratio 0.20
Put Open Interest Total 55,919
Call Open Interest Total 54,424
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 1.03
2/17/23 expiry options data:
Put Volume Total 2,465
Call Volume Total 5,343
Put/Call Volume Ratio 0.46
Put Open Interest Total 161,671
Call Open Interest Total 170,326
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 0.95
