Long Signal on NITFLIX _15MinHello enveryone,
We have a good Signal to short on NITFLIX for a short term investement, with a target of 443$,
Best regards
NFLX trade ideas
NFLX Long Term OutlookIf the awaited recession comes into play, this could be a possible scenario for Netflix.
Remember that this is a long term view.
Trade Safe!
Netflix in a fall, unless it breaks the channelAn unlikely winner in the current recession, Netflix could continue a trend down unless it breaks out the trend channel within the remainder of October. Despite promising results earlier this week, Netflix bounced on the channel's upper edge. Now this could be only a resolution of a few targetted positions by a few traders aware of the channel, but if the trend isn't broken within the next five days, or the price comes back to the PEG ground, the downtrend of Netflix will continue.
Netflix Consolidates After Earnings Surge Netflix jumped earlier this month after announcing results. It’s now consolidating, and some traders may see potential for more upside.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the bullish gap on October 19 following the quarterly report. Prices cleared a peak of $394.90 from two weeks prior and have remained there since. Has old resistance become new support?
Second, that level is near the 50-day simple moving average (SMA).
Third, NFLX is now trying to form a bullish inside week. That could indicate the stock is digesting its gains and consolidating.
Next you have the falling trendlines along the peaks of July and September. Traders could be watching for a breakout through this resistance.
Short-term indicators may also have gotten more bullish: The 8-day exponential moving average (EMA) is above the 21-day EMA, and MACD is rising.
Last, the fundamental case may have improved because NFLX entered earnings season under a cloud of negativity. It then shocked the bears with strong subscriber growth, making it a potential turnaround story.
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NETFLIX Can it realistically reach $600 in this environment?Netflix (NFLX) has established itself above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) since the aggressive price jump of October 19 on its bullish earnings. Still, the price is failing to break above the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the blue Channel Down and technically the longer it fails to do so, the higher the chances become of a rejection. Until that happens, we can see that during similar 1D MA50 consolidations after price jumps in the recent past, Netflix rallied more. Now it has the 1W MA100 (red trend-line) as its long-term Support, hence a potential new rally can be even stronger.
The previous 3 medium-term rallies have hit (or marginally missed) the 2.0 Fibonacci extension, so that is our target in case the price breaks above the top of the Channel Down. $600 is technically fair as it is on the Higher Highs trend-line of the Bullish Megaphone. Time-wise, this target is achievable by January 2024 as this is what the Sine Waves suggest. As you can see all 3 previous Higher Highs have been within the peak spectrum of the Sine Wave.
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Netflix Q3 EarningsNFLX Q3 September 2023 earnings are on Wednesday 10/18/23 at 4pm. Netflix (NFLX) reported earnings of 3.29 per share on revenue of 8.19 billion for the second quarter ended June 2023. The consensus earnings estimate was 2.83 per share on revenue of 8.27 billion. The company beat expectations by 13.84% while revenue grew 2.72% on a year-over-year basis. The company said it expects third quarter earnings of approximately 3.52 per share on revenue of approximately 8.52 billion. I'm posting this as a long because of the setup with NFLX price at its VWMA200 level.
Q3 September 2023 Consensus:
EPS = 3.47
Revenue: 8.43B
VWMA 50 = 409.41
VWMA100 = 417.44
VWMA200 = 369.33
YTD anchored VWAP = 374.60
TTCATR20:
R3 = 424.27
VWMA20 = 385.69
S3 = 347.10
Options data:
10/20 expiry
Put Volume Total 14,812
Call Volume Total 15,144
Put/Call Volume Ratio 0.98
Put Open Interest Total 82,510
Call Open Interest Total 67,499
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 1.22
highest open interest call strike = 390
highest volume call strike = 370
highest open interest put strike = 350
highest volume put strike = 365
Netflix: Bearish Crab with Bearish ConfirmationNetflix recently traded just above the HOP level of a Bearish crab and has since gapped down below the 1.618 PCZ and given us a Bearish Divergence on all Oscillators as well as PPO Circle Confirmation. We could see Netflix begin a full retrace of the Harmonic range from here.
Netflix Surges 16% Post Earnings!Netflix's stock surged 16% due to a 70% spike in subscribers for its new ad-supported tier, adding over 8 million users.
This pushed the global subscriber count to 247 million, marking the largest growth since Q2 2020, a period influenced by pandemic-driven home entertainment demand.
Financially, Q3 earnings exceeded expectations: projected at $3.49, they reached $3.73.
Although the stock previously neared a concerning $300, positive earnings pushed it back up past the $400 level.
Yet, a challenge remains: breaking the $423 resistance level from June 2018.
Still, with a 7% rise in October and a 37% annual increase, the outlook remains optimistic.
$NFLX TIME TO STOP HEREI believe this was enough of a rally for Netflix and we should start seeing more selling pressure.
62% Fib along with a resistance zone makes me feel Netflix will be back at 400 soon.
Earnings Glory and Quiet Storms: Netflix's Path ForwardNetflix has experienced a remarkable surge in subscriber growth attributed to its proactive measures to curtail password sharing and the introduction of a new ad-supported subscription tier. In the third quarter, the global streaming juggernaut welcomed an impressive 8.76 million new subscribers, significantly outpacing Wall Street's conservative estimate of 5.49 million. This milestone represents the most substantial quarterly increase since the second quarter of 2020, a period marked by a surge in subscriptions due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
In terms of financial performance, the results for this quarter are as follows:
1- Earnings: Netflix achieved earnings of $3.73 per share, surpassing the projected figure of $3.49 per share (as per LSEG, formerly known as Refinitiv).
2- Revenue: The company generated revenue of $8.54 billion, aligning precisely with the expected figure of $8.54 billion (according to LSEG).
3- Total memberships: Netflix reported a total of 247.15 million memberships, exceeding the anticipated 243.88 million (according to Street Account).
Nonetheless, it is important to consider that there are underlying aspects that may not be immediately apparent to investors, but could impact the company's stock price in the future.
Firstly, Netflix's trailing twelve-month Price to Earnings (P/E) ratio currently stands at 38.19, which exceeds the historical average of approximately 15. This valuation places Netflix in the category of overvalued stocks, as investors are paying a premium compared to its earnings. Netflix's trailing twelve-month earnings per share (EPS) of 9.39 may not fully justify its current market valuation. It is important to note that trailing P/E ratios may not account for a company's projected growth rate, which can lead to elevated P/E ratios driven by expectations of substantial future growth, even if current earnings appear low.
Further, Netflix boasts a 12-month forward Price to Earnings Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.36. This suggests that the market is currently valuing Netflix above its expected growth potential, given that a PEG ratio above the fair market value of 1 indicates overvaluation. The PEG ratio of 9.39 is calculated by dividing its forward price to earnings ratio by its growth rate. PEG ratios are a widely used valuation metric, as they consider various fundamental metrics and prioritize the firm's future rather than its past performance. The combination of these valuation metrics paints a somewhat unfavorable picture for Netflix at its current market price, due to an overvalued PEG ratio despite robust growth.
Furthermore, Netflix recently implemented price hikes for its services, with the basic subscription rate in the UK rising by £1 to £7.99 and the premium option increasing by £2 to £17.99. Similarly, premium plans in the US and France experienced price increases of $3 and €2, respectively. While these adjustments are indicative of the company's growing confidence, they come at a time when Netflix is confronting concerns about its ability to continually attract new members amidst mounting competition, escalating prices, and disruptions caused by a Hollywood strike.
It is worth noting that in a landscape of intensifying competition and Netflix's imposition of increased constraints on its subscribers, such as price hikes and sharing limitations, there is the potential for adverse implications on future subscriber growth.
From a technical standpoint, Netflix's price chart illustrates the completion of five upward waves within an ascending channel, with a subsequent breakage and retesting of the channel. This retest has generated a considerable price gap that suggests a likelihood of retracement to fill the gap. Should this scenario unfold as anticipated, there is a possibility that prices may revert to prior lows, particularly around the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement level at approximately $286.00. A breach of this level could precipitate a further decline, potentially revisiting the initial channel starting point at $170.00.
I encourage you to delve into my other analyses, as they provide valuable insights into the broader economic landscape. By combining these analyses, you'll gain a clearer understanding of what's on the horizon.
Your commitment to assessing multiple viewpoints is a commendable approach to informed decision-making in the complex world of financial markets.
Goodluck!
Positive Earnings Gaps Seldom Fill: NFLXTo follow up on my analysis of NFLX from Wednesday ...
Despite the market moodiness and selling, NASDAQ:NFLX reported well above estimates.
HFTs triggered a huge gap up on heavy pre-open order flow yesterday. Volume was also huge, so smaller funds' VWAPs triggered and retail traders chased the stock while Pro Traders and HFTs made some big profits.
Gaps up on positive earnings seldom fill completely. There is a strong support level at $350 which the gap up now confirms.
ANOTHER SCENARIOThere are 2 patterns I see, the bat and a head and shoulders. I hate to contradict myself but I see it )o; This could have been a Head and
Shoulders pattern that did not make a 100% fall which is not unusual. This pattern can fall more or less than 100 percent.
The 2 spinning tops are sitting on the prior neckline so I turned this level blue versus green as it has been recently broken.
The prior fall from the possible neckline hit between the .618 and the .786 before reversing up. This would mean it hit T2 and almost hit T3 (.786) on the last descent.
H&S is bearish versus a Bullish Bat pattern.
Time will tell and one or the other pattern will play out. it is possible the H&S fall is complete. The H&S can break back above the neckline as no pattern lasts forever and patterns continually morph.
Nothing in the market is written in stone and anything can happen.
Change is the only thing that never changes )o:
No recommendation
BATBullish Bat as most M patterns are bullish meaning they reverse on the 4th leg which is down.
The first leg is Up. Peak 2 s lower than peak 1.
This did not quite hit the .886 but still very close. News popped this early and there was also a very small gap that acted as support.
Price is at a horizontal resistance level and 2 spinning tops are struggling at this level. Spinning top candles represent indecsion. Price must surpass this level to hit above targets.
No recommendaton
NFLX To Reverse Its Course Soon After forming a 1-2-3-4-5 Motive Wave, NFLX is forming an A-B-C Corrective Wave. Currently, NFLX is in C wave of this Corrective Wave.
C wave retraces 100 percent of A wave of A-B-C Corrective Wave. In this C wave, waves 1 and 2 have formed and wave 3 is under formation.
The spike after recent earnings is a short pull back in wave 3.
NFLX, BUY, 16.91% PROFITBought NASDAQ:NFLX on 10/18/2023 at market close and closed position on 10/19/2023 at market open. Net 16.91% profit.
Bulls losing control on NFLX 🥵🐻NFLX breaking bullish trend support zone today, very bad news for longs short term!
I can see a quick dip to 371 before any upside, but if that pivot level at 370 can't hold then we can possibly see a dip to 311 before any big move back to upside targets.
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NETFLIX Up +18% today, sending a message to the market.Netflix made a huge price jump today, opening on the MA50 (1d) for the first time in more than 1 month.
It remains under the Falling Resistance, but held the Rising Support trend lines of the Bullish Megaphone.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy after the price crosses over the Falling Resistance or if it hits the MA200 (1d) again.
Targets:
1. 508.45 (January 20th 2020 gap).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1d) made a huge oversold jump. Similar jumps can be seen on March 9th 2023 and May 9th 2022, both market bottoms.
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NetflixPrice is falling for many days with less pullbacks. On the lower time frame price has formed a falling wedge, which is a bullish pattern.
On higher time frame, that is weekly chart, price has broken the trend line which confirms the bearish trend. As per the weekly chart, support is at 310 - 315 level.
Resistance zone is 358 - 362.
Buy above 353 with the stop loss of 350 for the targets 356, 360 and 366.
Sell below 344 with the stop loss of 348 for the targets 340, 336 and 330.
Do your own analysis, before taking trades.
Netflix Jumps 14% After Surge In 3rd Quarter SubscribersNetflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) shares jumped more than 13.5% in pre-market Thursday trading after it handily beat profit expectations as subscriber numbers rose.
The streaming giant reported earnings per share of $3.73 on revenue of $8.54 billion. Analysts expected EPS of $3.49 and revenue of $8.54 billion. The third quarter results beat Netflix’s previous guidance.
The company said paid subscribers rose 8.76 million in the third quarter, well above expectations for just over 6 million.
“The last six months have been challenging for our industry given the combined writers and actors strikes in the US,” Netflix said in a shareholder letter, noting that while the writers’ strike has ended, it continues to talk to the actors’ unions. “We’re committed to resolving the remaining issues as quickly as possible so everyone can return to work making movies and TV shows that audiences will love.”
For the fourth quarter, Netflix sees earnings per share of $2.15 and revenue of about $8.69 billion. The revenue growth is expected to be around 10.7%, after growing 7.8% in the third quarter.
The company said operating margin in the third quarter was 22.4%, slightly above its guidance, and it sees 2023 operating margin near the top of its range at 20%.
KeyBanc analysts upgraded shares to Overweight with a $510 per share price target.
"In my my own view, Netflix is entering 2024 a cleaner story as: 1) paid sharing appears to have changed Netflix's ability to reach the next ~250M subs; 2) operating profit and FCF are steadily ramping; and 3) buybacks should support a 25%+ EPS growth profile," they said in an upgrade note.
JPMorgan analysts hiked the price target to $480 per share on the Overweight-rated stock.
"We’re encouraged that NFLX is executing on Paid Sharing by converting borrower households, contributing to revenue acceleration to +12% FXN in 4Q, & we believe the forecast for similar net adds to 3Q +/- a few million should skew to the upside given more favorable seasonality in 4Q & a strong content slate," the analysts wrote.
NFLX Price Soars 12% after Strong ReportYesterday's closing price was 345.83, but this morning, NFLX's price rose above USD 390 per share in premarket trading. The reason is a strong report:
→ earnings per share = USD 3.73, expected = USD 3.49;
→ revenue = USD 8.54 billion, a year ago = USD 7.9 billion.
→ the main surprise is that the number of subscribers grew by an impressive 8.76 million in the third quarter (about 6 million were expected). The number of subscribers worldwide is approaching 250 million.
Given the increase in demand for its service, Netflix has decided to raise the price of its basic plan in the US to USD 11.99 per month from USD 9.99, and raise the price of its premium subscription to USD 22.99 per month from USD 19.99. This could attract more earnings per share in the future, which is what has helped NFLX's price soar.
From the technical analysis point of view:
→ NFLX price returns to the ascending channel that was in effect in 2023 and seems to be becoming relevant again. The false breakout pattern could become a support zone in the future.
→ NFLX price exceeded USD 370 per share.
Since early September, NFLX has been a laggard in the NASDAQ index, but after the report it may become one of the leaders. "While we have much work to do to build out this business, we're making good progress and laying the foundation for what we believe should be a multibillion-dollar revenue stream over time," Netflix executives wrote in a letter to shareholders.
Resistance to a powerful bullish impulse may come from:
→ psychological level of USD 400;
→ level at USD 412 – during the summer, the level provided support. But it was broken on September 13-14, and with a bearish gap, which could slow down the rally if the price of NFLX reaches this level. Also note that here is the Fibo resistance level of 50% of the decline A→B.
According to TipRanks, analysts have a target price of USD 454 for NFLX, but given its recent performance, the forecast could be raised.
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