Long term support Price is moving on long term support trendline
It will soon exit from red channel down
Probably a strong uptrend will follow
NKE trade ideas
July 18: Generational buy opportunityI believe NYSE:NKE is at a generational buy opportunity, because the drop has now erased all the lows of all times and is the most oversold in the quarterly chart. Weekly chart shows the last pivot has also been erased and is at the buy zone. Price action-wise, selling has also stalled and is creating a hammer on the weekly. Further drop, if there is, will be minimal.
Who's keen on catching an Olympic sized knife?NYSE:NKE has been bleeding...but it's Nike.
Chart looks like knife catching to be buying here.
Largest marketing campaign in athletic brand history about to be rolled out around the Paris Olympics.
Another one that gets the heart racing at the potential opportunity, but you need a stomach for.
Exciting one to follow for the next 12 months.
$NKE just doing it to $88.50 from $72 after drastic drop off $98NYSE:NKE just doing it to $88.50 from $72 after drastic drop. Perfect to align with a bit above the 50% Fibonacci point as the RSI climbs higher towards the 200 day moving average above the 50 day moving average on the 2hour chart and in multiple timeframes.
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NYSE:NKE
NIKE INC. AMERICAN SHOOES LOOSING GLOSS, AHEAD OF U.S. RECESSIONNIKE Inc. or Nike is an American multinational company specializing in sportswear and footwear.
The company designs, develops, markets and sells athletic footwear, apparel, accessories, equipment and services.
The company was founded by William Jay Bowerman and Philip H. Knight more than 40 years ago, on January 25, 1964, and is headquartered in Beaverton, Oregon.
As of July 15, 2024, NIKE (NKE) shares were down more than 33 percent in 2024, making them a Top 5 Underperformer among all the S&P500 components.
Perhaps everything would have been "normal", and everything could be explained by the one only unsuccessful December quarter of 2023, when the Company’s revenue decreased by 2 percentage points to $12.6 billion, which turned out to be lower than analyst estimates.
But one circumstance makes everything like a "not just cuz".
This is all because among the Top Five S&P500 Outsiders, in addition to NIKE, we have also shares of another large shoe manufacturer - lululemon athletica (LULU), that losing over 44 percent in 2024.
Influence of macroeconomic factors
👉 The economic downturn hurts most merchandise retailers, but footwear companies face the greatest risk to loose profits, as higher fixed costs lead to larger profit declines when sales come under pressure.
👉 The Nasdaq US Benchmark Footwear Index has fallen more than 23 percent since the start of 2024 as consumer spending is threatened by continued rising home prices, banks' reluctance to lend, high lending rates, and high energy and energy costs. food products - weaken.
👉 In general, the above-mentioned Footwear Sub-Industry Index continues to decline for the 3rd year in a row, being at levels half as low as the maximum values of the fourth quarter of 2021.
Investment Domes worsen forecasts...
👉 In the first quarter of 2024, Goldman Sachs made adjustments to its forecast for Nike shares, lowering the target price to $120 from the previous $135, while maintaining a Buy recommendation. The company analyst cited ongoing challenges in Nike's near-term growth trajectory as the main reason for the adjustment, anticipating potential underperformance compared to market peers, noting that Nike's 2025 growth expectations have become "more conservative."
👉 Last Friday, Jefferies Financial Group cut its price target from $90.00 to $80.00, according to a report.
👉 Several other equity analysts also weighed in on NKE earlier in Q2 2024. In a research note on Friday, June 28, Barclays downgraded NIKE from an "overweight" rating to an "equal weight" rating and lowered their price target for the company from $109.00 to $80.00.
👉 BMO Capital Markets lowered their price target on NIKE from $118.00 to $100.00 and set an overweight rating on the stock in a research report on Friday, June 28th.
👉 Morgan Stanley reaffirmed an equal-weight rating and set a $79.00 price target (up from $114.00) on shares of NIKE in a research report on Friday, June 28th.
👉 Oppenheimer reiterated an outperform rating and set a $120.00 price target on shares of NIKE in a research report on Friday, June 28th.
👉 Finally, StockNews.com downgraded NIKE from a "buy" rating to a "hold" rating in a research report on Friday, June 21st.
...and it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy
Perhaps everything would have been fine, and all the deterioration in forecasts could have been attributed to the stretching spring of price decline, if not for one circumstance - it is not the ratings that are declining due to the decline in share prices, but the shares themselves are being pushed lower and lower, as one after another depressing ones are released analytical forecasts from investment houses.
16 years ago. How it was
On January 15, 2008, shares of many shoe companies, including Nike Inc. (NKE) and Foot Locker Inc. (FL) fell after investment giant Goldman Sachs (GS) slashed its stock price targets, warning that the U.S. recession would drag down the companies' sales in 2008 as consumers spend more cautiously. "The recession will further increase the impact of the key headwind of a limited number of key commodity trends needed to fuel consumer interest in the sector," Goldman Sachs said in a note to clients.
In early 2008, Goldman downgraded athletic shoe retailer Foot Locker to "sell" from "neutral" and cut its six-month share price target from $17 to $10, saying it expected U.S. sales margins to continue to decline in 2008 despite store closures.
The downgrade was a major blow to Foot Locker, which by early 2008 had already seen its shares fall 60 percent over the previous 12 months as it struggled with declining sales due to declining demand for athletic shoes at the mall and a lack of exciting fashion trends in the market. sports shoes.
Like now, at those times Goldman retained its recommendation rating to “buy” Nike Inc shares, based on general ideas about the Company’s increasing weight over the US market, topped off with theses about the Company’s international visibility, as well as robust demand ahead of the Beijing Olympics.
However Goldman lowered its target price for the shares from $73 to $67 ( from $18.25 to $16.75, meaning two 2:1 splits in Nike stock in December 2012 and December 2015).
Although Nike, at the time of the downturn in forecasts, in fact remained largely unscathed by the decline in demand for athletic footwear among US mall retailers, it reported strong second-quarter results in December 2007 (and even beating forecasts for strong demand for its footwear in the US and growth abroad) , Goldman Sachs' forecasts for Nike's revenue and earnings per share to decline were justified.
Later Nike' shares lost about 45 percent from their 2008 peaks, and 12 months later reached a low in the first quarter of 2009 near the $40 mark ($10 per share, taking into account two stock splits).
The decline in Foot Locker shares from the 2008 peaks 2009 lows was even about 80 percent, against the backdrop of the global recession and the banking crisis of 2007-09.
Will history repeat itself this time..!? Who knows..
However, the main technical graph says, everything is moving (yet) in this direction.
Getting closer to a bounce ~65-70The sell-off in NKE continues; however, we are approaching a key support area, particularly at the 61.8% Fibonacci level between the IPO price and the ATH.
Long-term Triangle PatternNike is getting close to the apex of a 4-year triangle pattern (where price inevitably breaks one way or the other). For now, I'm just watching for a certain setup to potentially trade on. If it breaks down out of the triangle (which it is currently threatening), it may find support around the 200-mo. EMA, which would be a better price to start a position. That said, it could certainly find support here but there isn't much upside to the top of the pattern (unless it breaks out).
29 Yr Ascending Channel Historical SupportsThe last two times NKE has reached these two lower bands is 2008 and 2000. In 2008 the stock rebounded 35% from the second lowest band and 2000 the stock continued downward to the lowest band to rebound 60+% in just 8 weeks time from the lowest low. The point is, some market exposure at the second lowest band with reserve to buy at the lowest is better than missing the rally entirely. Historically, even if it continues to the lowest, it appears it doesn't spend much time there.
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Nike - Just do it, but when?You’ve got to zoom out to get the bigger picture on Nike, so let’s look at it on the 3 Month chart.
The last time Nike hit the 0.75 speed fan was in the early 80s, it’s initial significant crash before they singed Michael Jordan.
No we are approaching that level 0.75 speed fan again. Will it hold or fail and send Nike down to $60? Things are not going well for Nike, Adidas is taking market share and other brands like Hoka are having their moment. Could the singing of Caitlin Clark provide a similar catalyst to this declining brand as Jordan did in the 80s?
Nike has a clear MOAT, it’s one of the strongest brands out there. Looking back at the major corrections 60% is approximately the average decline which can last from 1-3 years. We are in year 3 of the decline since 2021 and a similar draw down.
Personally I am looking to add spot Nike for a long term hold. They have a history of turning things around. It will require patience but I’m my opinion they will just about do it.
Not financial advice, just my thoughts.
Nike's Drop Will Offer a Great Dip... Soon!Nike's stock has dropped 30% this year and nearly 60% from its 2021 highs. It continues to drop, and now, I am worried that they will soon suspend their dividend to move cash flow into other areas that need to support the business.
I believe Nike may reach a low close to its COVID-19 crash levels, presenting a buying opportunity for patient investors as I've marked on the chart with the red circle. As Warren Buffett once said, "Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." I think that moment is coming with Nike.
Here are two tips for buying dips:
1. It can always go lower than you think so it's better to wait for some signs of a reversal rather than perfectly catching the bottom.
2. Set alerts so that you're ready and can get alerted with the time comes.
Now, why has Nike fallen like this? Several factors contribute to this decline:
1. Margin Pressures: Rising raw material and labor costs have strained Nike's profitability, causing investor concerns.
2. Product Control Issues: Expanding its product range has led to inconsistent quality and inventory management problems.
3. Excessive Product Range: The overwhelming number of products has confused customers and diluted the brand.
4. Increased Competition: New, agile brands are capturing market share, challenging Nike's dominance.
This one is on my watchlist! Let's see what happens next. I'll update you all rather soon.
#NKE Oversold - price at Covid LevelsAnalysis Overview
Focus: Primarily on fundamental analysis.
Current Price Context:
Last time NYSE:NKE was at these price levels was in March 2020.
The stock has been significantly beaten down.
This year's growth estimate is gloomy (-14%).
Investment Rationale
Despite the recent challenges, Nike remains a solid company and is the world's most valuable apparel brand. P/E (TTM) is 19.74 which hints a kind of fair valuation. Moreover, analysts estimate an upside potential of +26.16% on average.
Investment Decision
I decided to buy 10 shares of $NKE.
Exit Strategy
I haven’t determined a specific sell price yet and might keep the shares indefinitely. My decision will be based on:
General market sentiment
Potential price increases in the near term
Long-Term Outlook
I believe Nike will perform well in the long term, but I’m also open to acting opportunistically and selling if there is a significant price increase in the near term.
More Weakness for NKENKE has been getting hammered all year and in particular since the last earnings that led to the biggest single day drop in the stock's history. It hasn't been able to catch a bid since and is nearing the recent lows after breaking below this small descending wedge. This should lead to a further move down below the $75 area.
Buy Nike - touching a bullish trend line since 2000 + descending channel.
Target -10% correction to the Previous support that is now resistance.
NIKE - Just Do it
Looking for a long term long position.
Four years of gains wiped out.
Looking to retest COVID lows - look for a base before going long.
Nike (NKE) can be a very good buy down around USD 60.00 - 65.00Technical Analysis of Nike Inc. (ticker on NYSE: NKE)
Nike (NKE) is in a long-term downward trend, showing a very weak development.
Then we know the saying 'Never try to catch a falling knife', and you can safely say that about the Nike share here now.
According to the long-term falling trend that the share is moving within, a further fall towards around USD 60.00 - 65.00 is indicated.
Preferably within the next 1-3 months.
Naturally, there will occasionally be some rebounds, but the trend indicates that the share will likely fall towards USD 60.00 - 65.00 within 1-3 months.
So well worth keeping an eye on Nike stock going forward, and if it comes down to the bottom of the long-term downtrend, around USD 60.00 - 65.00, then it might be worth trying an investment in the stock around that level.
Yes, Nike is not going bankrupt, so to speak, but the company has had its challenges to contend with in recent years, and down to USD 60.00 - 65.00 the share can be an interesting investment, the undersigned believes.
After all, Nike is the largest athletic footwear and apparel brand in the world. Key categories include basketball, running, and football (soccer). Footwear generates about two thirds of its sales.
$Nke 85c aug 9 exp OLYMPIC PUMP Nike saw a slash in price from $94- $74 after a drop in annual sales.
After this drop we saw a consolidation at $74.79s and a bottom was formed.
We do need to clean break above $77 to bring in more volume
76.76- 77.47 is our volume box.
I believe in Nike. IT is a staple of American Sports and athletic apparel.
I am looking to buy $85-$87 calls for Early Aug exp. I will roll these calls for the duration of the 2024 Olympic games. We may not fill the entire $20 gap but 50% at $85 is very achievable.
Nike is still listed as a sell on TV indicators but we will be early to the breakout and nicely rewarded.
Patience. Discipline. Consistency.
This is not financial advice and please do your own due diligence and research prior to entering.
Current Price $75.47
Target Price $85.50
#Nke
Long Nike on the 76 fibNKE has been getting hammered badly recently and all of this can build up into cap down capitulations to the 76.
I like buying things cheap. Especially at 76 fibs and I love things crashing into 76 fibs.
Taking a NKE position build up of shorting put spreads and buying calls. Betting the low is in and we retrace at least 40% of the drop - possibly get to the high.
NKE ShortNike (NKE) has closed below the Anchored Volume Weighted Average Price (AVWAP) from the recent earnings report. An insider recently bought shares, prompting retail investors to follow. Despite the range-bound trading, there is potential for profit. The plan involves entering a second position at the low of the day (LOD) with a stop loss at the high of the earnings wick. This strategy aims to capitalize on the insider buying signal while managing risk through precise entry and exit points.
Nike’s Troubles Could Persist After Poor Results & Stock SlumpLess than a year after posting its longest losing streak on record, Nike’s stock registered its worst day ever, erasing nearly $20 on Friday. The collapse came after the sportswear giant reported poor Q4 FY2024 results and offered disappointing guidance. Revenues shrank 2% y/y, the most in four years, with executives expecting a stepper decline of 10% in the current quarter. But the bad news stop there, as they also reversed their full FY25 outlook, now seeing a mid-single digits drop.
The firm faces increased competition from startups like On running, while Adidas seems to be regaining its stride. Nike’s direct-to-consumer pursuit gave way to competitors and proved to be a mistake. Sales in Greater China grew in the reported quarter, but the was mainly due to the 6.18 promotional festival and this critical region remains a source of uncertainty.
At the same time the external environment remains unfriendly for discretionary goods, as US inflation lingers, borrowing costs remains high, the excess pandemic savings that supported spending are now gone and credit card delinquencies are rising. The Consumer Discretionary SPDR ETF (XLY) gains less than 5% YTD as the S&P500 soars, but over performs compared to Nike’s nearly 30% YTD losses. It is clear that Nike’s problems are likely to persist and continue to weigh on the stock. Friday’s historic plunge exposes NKE to the 2020 lows (60.00).
On the other hand, Nike’s leadership has been taking action to mitigate the issues. It is putting emphasis back on third party vendors, sales through which increased in the last quarter. It is cutting costs, which helped its gross margins and net income to widen in Q4FY24. Nike is also refocusing on innovation, which could help it regain its edge over rivals. The two major sporting events of the summer, the Euro 2024 football championship and the Paris Olympics, can help it regain its appeal. The turnaround efforts create optimism for the future, but they will take time and the next few quarters are likely not going to be easy.
Technically the drop of NKE is stretched and a rebound would be reasonable. However daily closes above the EMA200 (black line) would be needed for the bearish momentum to pause and that does not look easy under current conditions.
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Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
Nike unreal R:R opportunity Will want to be around when Nike breaks above 77. Incredible R:R trading opportunity
$NKE Nike, Inc is finally back to CHEAP-ENOUGH levelsMany years ago I had drawn this 1.7-1.3 level in the PSR (or Price-to-Sales Ratio) for NYSE:NKE and the recent smack down for NYSE:NKE stock has put it within reach of the 1.7-1.3 X Sales zone.
The RETURN for shareholders has been negative for the last 7 years in NYSE:NKE when adjusted for inflation. The stock is basically unchanged back to 2018 here (not factoring dividends).
What is the point of this?
When a stock gets sold down on bad news, there is an underlying level of value which will support it from that point forward. There are always portfolio managers looking to invest in stocks that have had solid long term fundamentals with rising sales and earnings and a nearly recession-proof business model.
The opposite is also true that there are NO BUYERS for a stock once it gets ridiculously overpriced and no one can justify buying shares are high prices. The only hope you have at that point is for momentum to attract new buyers who aren't paying attention to valuation and because of tax laws that encourage people to hold on for long term capital gains tax rates to kick in for holding periods greater than 1 year.
Thanks to TradingView for providing all of this high quality fundamental information AND for the ability to graph this data so we can visualize and see where the value is in the marketplace.
The value is down here in NYSE:NKE shares so it is a good time to start buying.
Cheers,
Tim
3:47PM July 1, 2024 76.67 last +1.30 +1.72%
NIKE - A No Brainer! Following on from our last analysis of Nike, we are down a further 20%! As explained in the last analysis, Nike is the world's largest supplier of athletic shoes and apparel and a major manufacturer of sports equipment, with revenue in excess of US$46 billion in its fiscal year 2022. The chance of it going bust is incredibly low. Any dips should be considered a buying opportunity.
We are fast approaching the pandemic lows, which is our initial area of interest. Anything below the pandemic levels will provide us an even bigger opportunity to buy!
For confirmation that we've reversed, we can wait for the break of the red trendline. Alternatively, we can slowly build our positions as we move lower.
The move up is inevitable. It's just a question of when!
Goodluck and as always, trade safe!
