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NVIDIA Analysis: A Pattern Similar to Its Past?! 24.12.31Hello, this is Greedy All-Day. Today's analysis focuses on NVIDIA. Daily Chart Overview Let’s begin with the daily chart. From May 2023 to January 2024, NVIDIA remained in a range-bound market marked by the yellow box, with a range between approximately 39 and 51. After breaking out above the green box, NVIDIA experienced a one-way rally, as seen in the candles within the blue box. Since April 2024, NVIDIA has been forming a new pattern: a rising wedge. About the Rising Wedge Pattern This pattern typically suggests a bullish continuation during its formation. However, if the support zone at the bottom of the pattern is broken, it can signal a trend reversal or even a drop to the starting point of the pattern. For NVIDIA, this would mean a break below the red box, potentially leading to a drop to the 75 level, which marks the start of the pattern. Considerations The pattern is not yet complete, as it requires a confirmed breakdown to be validated. Currently, the stock price is moving upward, forming higher lows, indicating potential consolidation for a strong upward move. For now, this is something to monitor rather than act on immediately. Preparing for Potential Scenarios Even when looking at NVIDIA’s last 5 years of data, the stock has shown significant corrections during long-term trend reversals: Minimum correction: 42% Maximum correction: 66% At the current stage, while the possibility for further upward movement remains, a break below the red box would signal a completed rising wedge pattern. The pattern’s target zone suggests a drop of approximately 50% from the recent high. A breakdown from the red box could lead to an immediate correction of around 35%. Being prepared for such a trend reversal can be a prudent approach. Buying Strategy Where would be the best entry points for buying NVIDIA? Here’s the strategy: 1st Entry Zone: 75 (White Box) Reason: This level corresponds to the start of the rising wedge pattern, aligning with the support zone seen in the blue box above. 2nd Entry Zone: 50 (White Box) Reason: This level marks the upper boundary of the range formed from May 2023, which previously acted as resistance but is now expected to act as support. Significant buying activity is likely to hold this level. Additional Evidence In the orange box, the previous one-way upward trendline (white trendline) was broken in the purple box, causing a decline to the starting point of the rally before rebounding. Similarly, in the red box, after forming a range-bound market with supply zones, NVIDIA created a rising wedge pattern like the current one, ultimately dropping to the pattern’s start before rebounding. Based on this evidence, I recommend 1st and 2nd entry zones for safer buying opportunities. Why Not Consider Breakout Trades? Personally, I believe NVIDIA has become too expensive, which is why aggressive breakout trades are not part of this strategy. Conclusion NVIDIA is currently forming a critical pattern, and while there’s potential for further upside, it’s essential to prepare for potential trend reversals. Following the outlined strategy with well-considered entry points can help mitigate risk and maximize opportunities.
NASDAQ:NVDA
by Greedy_allday
HOW-TO use the Rainbow Indicator? (full guide)Below is a complete instruction on how to use the Rainbow Indicator along with examples. This indicator is an important facet of my decision-making system because it allows me to answer two important questions: - At what price should I make a trade with the selected shares? - In what volume? Part 1: Darts Set My concept of investing in stocks is buying great companies during a sell-off . Of course, this idea is not unique. One way or another, this was said by the luminaries of value investing – Benjamin Graham and Warren Buffett. However, the implementation of this concept may vary depending on the preferences of each investor.To find great companies, I use the Fundamental strength indicator , and to plan opening and closing positions I use the Rainbow indicator. To begin your acquaintance with the Rainbow Indicator, ⁣ I would like to invite you to take part in a mental experiment. Imagine two small rooms for a game of darts. Each room has a different target hanging in it. It can be anywhere: center, left, right, bottom, or top. Target #1 from the first room looks like a small red circle. Target #2 from the second room looks like a larger red circle. You get a reward for hitting the target, calculated according to the following principle: the smaller the target in relation to the wall surface, the greater the reward you get. You have 100 darts in your hand, that is 100 attempts to hit the target. For each attempt, you pay $10. So to play this unusual game of darts, you take with you $1,000. Now, the most important condition is that you play in absolute darkness . So you don't know exactly what part of the wall the target is hanging in, so all your years of darts practice don't matter here. The question is: Which room will you choose? This is where you begin to think. Since your skills and experience are almost completely untapped in this game, all of your attempts to hit a target will be random. This is a useful observation because it allows you to apply the theory of probability. The password is Jacob Bernoulli. This is the mathematician who derived the formula by which you can calculate the probability of a successful outcome for a limited number of attempts. In our case, a successful outcome is a dart hitting the target as many times as necessary in order to, at least, not lose anything. In the case of Target #1, it is one hit or more. In the case of Target 2, it is 10 hits or more. The probability of hitting Target #1 is 1/100 or 1% (since the target area occupies 1% of the wall area). The probability of hitting Target #2 is 10/100 or 10% (since the target area occupies 10% of the wall area). The number of attempts is equal to the number of darts - 100. Now we have all the data to calculate. So, Bernoulli's formula : According to this formula: - The probability of one or more hits on Target #1 is 63% (out of 100%). - The probability of ten or more hits on Target #2 is 55% (out of 100%). You may say, "I think we should go to the first room". However, take your time with this conclusion because it is interesting to calculate the probability of not hitting the target even once, i.e., losing $1,000. We calculate using the same formula: - The probability of not hitting Target #1 is 37% (out of 100%). - The probability of not hitting Target #2 is 0.0027% (out of 100%). If we calculate the ratio of the probability of a successful outcome to the probability of losing the whole amount, we get: - For the first room = 1.7 - For the second room = 20370 You know, I like the second room better. This mental experiment reflects my approach to investing in stocks. The first room is an example of a strategy where you try to find the perfect entry point - to buy at a price below which the stock will not fall. The second room reflects an approach where you're not chasing a specific price level, but thinking in price ranges. In both cases, you'll have plenty of attempts, but in the first room, the risk of losing everything is much greater than in the second room. Now let me show you my target, ⁣ which is a visual interpretation of the Rainbow Indicator. It also hangs on the wall, in absolute darkness, and only becomes visible after I have used all the darts. Before the game starts, I announce the color where I want to go. The probability of hitting decreases from blue to green, and then to orange and red. That is, the smaller the color area, the less likely it is to successfully hit the selected color. However, the size of the reward also increases according to the same principle - the smaller the area of ​​color, the greater the reward. Throwing a dart is an attempt to close a position with a profit. Hitting the selected color is a position closed with a profit. Missing the selected color means the position is closed at a loss. Now imagine that in the absolutely dark room where I am, I have a flashlight. Thanks to it, I have the opportunity to see in which part of the wall the target is located. This gives me a significant advantage because now I throw darts not blindly, but with a precise understanding of where I am aiming. Light shining on the wall increases the probability of a successful outcome, which can also be estimated using the Bernoulli formula. Let's say I have 100 darts in my hands, that is, one hundred attempts to hit the chosen target. The probability of a dart hitting a red target (without the help of a flashlight) is 10%, and with the help of a flashlight, for example, 15%. That is, my ability to throw darts improves the probability of hitting the target by 5%. For hitting the red target, I get $100, and for each throw I pay $10. In this case, the probability of hitting the red target ten or more times is 94.49% (out of 100%) versus 55% (out of 100%) without a flashlight. In other words, under these game conditions and the assumptions made, if I try all 100 darts, the probability of recouping all my expenses will be 94.49% if I aim only at the red target. In my decision-making system, such a "flashlight" is the Fundamental strength indicator, dynamics of cash flows, the P/E ratio and the absence of critical news. And the darts set (target and darts) is a metaphor for the Rainbow Indicator. However, please note that all probabilities of positive outcomes are assumptions and are provided only for the purpose of example and understanding of the approach I have chosen. Stocks of public companies are not a guaranteed income instrument, nor are any indicators associated with them. Part 2: Margin of safety The idea to create the Rainbow Indicator came to me thanks to the concept of "margin of safety" coined by the father of value investing, Benjamin Graham. According to his idea, it is reasonable to buy shares of a company only when the price offered by the market is lower than the "intrinsic value" calculated based on financial statements. The value of this difference is the "margin of safety". At the same time, the indicator does not copy Graham's idea but develops it relying on my own methodology. So, according to Graham, the "margin of safety" is a good discount to the intrinsic value of the company. That is, if a company's stock is trading at prices that are well below the company's intrinsic value (on a per-share basis), it's a good opportunity to consider buying it. In this case, you will have a certain margin of safety in case the company is in financial distress and its stock price goes down. Accordingly, the greater the discount, the better. When it comes to the intrinsic value of a company, there are many approaches to determining it - from calculating the Price-to-book value financial ratio to the discounted cash flow method. As for my approach, I don’t try to find the coveted intrinsic value/cost, but I try to understand how fundamentally strong the company in front of me is, and how many years it will take to pay off my investment in it. To decide to buy shares, I use the following sequence of actions: - Determining fundamental strength of a company and analysis of cash flows using the Fundamental Strength Indicator. - Analysis of the recoupment period of investments using P/E ratio . - Analysis of critical news . - Analysis of the current price using Rainbow Indicator. To decide to sell shares, I use: - Analysis of the current price using Rainbow Indicator. - Or The Rule of Replacement of Stocks in a Portfolio . - Or Force majeure Position Closing Rule . Thus, the Rainbow indicator is always used in tandem with other indicators and analysis methods when buying stocks. However, in the case of selling previously purchased shares, I can only use the Rainbow indicator or one of the rules that I will discuss below. Next, we will consider the methodology for calculating the Rainbow Indicator. Indicator calculation methodology The Rainbow indicator starts with a simple moving average of one year (this is the thick red line in the center). Hereinafter, a year will mean the last 252 trading days. Applying a moving average of this length - is a good way to smooth out sharp price fluctuations which can happen during a year as much as possible, keeping the trend direction as much as possible. Thus, the moving average becomes for me the center of fluctuations of the imaginary pendulum of the market price. Then the deviations are calculated from the center of fluctuations. To achieve this, a certain number of earnings per share is subtracted from and added to the moving average. This is the diluted EPS of the last year. Deviations with a "-" sign from the Lower Rainbow of four colors: - The Blue Spectrum of the Lower Rainbow begins with a deflection of -4 EPS and ends with a deflection of -8 EPS. - The Green Spectrum of the Lower Rainbow begins with a deflection of -8 EPS and ends with a deflection of -16 EPS. - The Orange Spectrum of the Lower Rainbow begins with a deflection of -16 EPS and ends with a deflection of -32 EPS. - The Red Spectrum of the Lower Rainbow begins with a deflection of -32 EPS and goes to infinity. The Lower Rainbow is used to determine the price ranges that can be considered for buying stocks. It is in the spectra of the Lower Rainbow that the very "margin of safety" according to my methodology is located. The Lower Rainbow has the boundaries between the spectra as a solid line . And only the Red Spectrum of the Lower Rainbow has only one boundary. Deviations with a "+" sign from the Upper Rainbow of four similar colors: - The Red Spectrum of the Upper Rainbow begins with a deflection of 0 EPS and ends with a deflection of +4 EPS. - The Orange Spectrum of the Upper Rainbow begins with a deflection of +4 EPS and ends with a deflection of +8 EPS. - The Green Spectrum top rainbow begins with a deflection of +8 EPS and ends with a deflection of +16 EPS. - The Blue Spectrum of the Upper Rainbow begins with a deflection of +16 EPS and goes to infinity. The Upper Rainbow is used to determine the price ranges that can be considered for selling stocks already purchased. The top rainbow has boundaries between the spectra in the form of crosses . And only the Blue Spectrum of the Upper Rainbow has only one boundary. The presence of the Empty Area (the size of 4 EPS) above the Lower Rainbow creates some asymmetry between the two rainbows - the Lower Rainbow looks wider than the Upper Rainbow. This asymmetry is deliberate because the market tends to fall much faster and deeper than it grows . Therefore, a wider Lower Rainbow is conducive to buying stocks at a good discount during a period of massive "sell-offs". The situation when the Lower Rainbow is below the center of fluctuations (the thick red line) and the Upper Rainbow is above the center of fluctuations is called an Obverse . It is only possible to buy a stock in an Obverse situation. The situation when the Lower Rainbow is above the center of fluctuations and the Upper Rainbow is below the center of fluctuations is called Reverse . In this situation, the stock cannot be considered for purchase , according to my approach. Selling a previously purchased stock is possible in both situations: Reverse and Obverse. After loading the indicator, you can see a hint next to the closing price - Reverse or Obverse now. Because the size of the deviation from the center of fluctuation depends on the size of the diluted EPS, several important conclusions can be made: - The increase in the width of both rainbows in the Obverse situation tells me about the growth of profits in the companies. - The decrease in the width of both rainbows in the Obverse situation tells me about a decrease in profits in the companies. - The increase in the width of both rainbows in the Reverse situation tells me about the growth of losses in the companies. - The decrease in the width of both rainbows in the Reverse situation tells me about the decrease in losses in the companies. - The higher the company's level of profit, the larger my "margin of safety" should be. This will provide the necessary margin of safety in the event of a transition to a cycle of declining financial results. The corresponding width of the Lower Rainbow will just create this "reserve". - The growth in profit in the company (after buying its shares) will allow me to stay in the position longer due to the expansion of the Upper Rainbow. - A decrease in profit in the company (after buying its shares) will allow me to close the position faster due to the narrowing of the Upper Rainbow. So the Rainbow indicator shows me a price range that can be considered for purchase if all the necessary conditions are met. By being in this price range, my investment will have a certain margin of safety or "margin of safety." It will also tell me when to exit a stock position based on the company's earnings analysis. Part 3: Crazy Mr. Market The Fundamental strength of a company influences the long-term price performance of its shares. This is a thesis that I believe in and use in my work. A company that does not live in debt and quickly converts its goods or services into money will be appreciated by the market. This all sounds good, you say, but what should an investor do who needs to decide here and now? Moreover, one has to act in conditions of constant changes in market sentiment. Current talk about the company's excellent prospects can be replaced by a pessimistic view of it literally the next day. Therefore, the stock price chart of any companies, regardless of its fundamental strength, can resemble the chaotic drawings of preschool children. Working with such uncertainty required me to develop my own attitude towards it. Benjamin Graham's idea of market madness was of invaluable help to me in this. Imagine that the market is your business partner, "Mr. Market". Every day, he comes to your office to check in and offer you a deal with shares of your mutual companies. Sometimes he wants to buy your share, sometimes he intends to sell his. And each time he offers a price at random, relying only on his intuition. When he is in a panic and afraid of everything, he wants to get rid of his shares. When he feels euphoria and blind faith in the future, he wants to buy your share. This is how crazy your partner is. Why is he acting like this? According to Graham, this is how all investors behave who do not understand the real value/cost of what they own. They jump from side to side and do it with the regularity of a "maniac" every day. The smart investor's job is to understand the fundamental value of your business and just wait for the next visit from crazy Mr. Market. If he panics and offers to buy his stocks at a surprisingly low price, take them and wish him luck. If he begs you to sell him stocks and quotes an unusually high price, sell them and wish him luck. The Rainbow indicator is used to evaluate these two poles. Now let's look at the conditions of opening and closing a position according to the indicator. So, the Lower Rainbow has four differently colored spectra: blue, green, orange, and red. Each one highlights the desired range of prices acceptable for buying in an Obverse situation. The Blue Spectrum is upper regarding the Green Spectrum, and the Green Spectrum is lower regarding the Blue Spectrum, etc. - If the current price is in the Blue Spectrum of the Lower Rainbow, that is a reason to consider that company for buying the first portion (*) of the stock. - If the current price has fallen below (into the Green Spectrum of the Lower Rainbow), that is a reason to consider this company to buy a second portion of the stock. - If the current price has fallen below (into the Orange Spectrum of the Lower Rainbow), it is a reason to consider this company to buy a third portion of the stock. - If the current price has fallen below (into the Red Spectrum of the Lower Rainbow), that is a reason to consider that company to buy a fourth portion of the stock. (*) The logic of the Rainbow Indicator implies that no more than 4 portions of one company's stock can be purchased. One portion refers to the number of shares you can consider buying at the current price (depending on your account size and personal diversification ratio - see information below). The Upper Rainbow also has four differently colored spectra: blue, green, orange, and red. Each of them highlights the appropriate range of prices acceptable for closing an open position. - If the current price is in the Red Spectrum of the Upper Rainbow, I close one portion of an open position bought in the Red Spectrum of the Lower Rainbow. - If the current price is in the Orange Spectrum of the Upper Rainbow, I close one portion of an open position bought in the Orange Spectrum of the Lower Rainbow. - If the current price is in the Green Spectrum of the Upper Rainbow, I close one portion of an open position bought in the Green Spectrum of the Lower Rainbow. - If the current price is in the Blue Spectrum of the Upper Rainbow, I close one portion of an open position bought in the Blue Spectrum of the Lower Rainbow. This position-closing logic applies to both the Obverse and Reverse situations. In both cases, the position is closed in portions in four steps. However, there are 3 exceptions to this rule when it is possible to close an entire position in whole rather than in parts: 1. If there is a Reverse situation and the current price is above the thick red line. 2.if I decide to invest in another company and I do not have enough free finances to purchase the required number of shares (Portfolio Replacement Rule). 3. If I learn of events that pose a real threat to the continued existence of the companies (for example, filing for bankruptcy), I can close the position earlier, without waiting for the price to fall into the corresponding Upper Rainbow spectrum (Force majeure Position Closing Rule). So, the basic scenario of opening and closing a position assumes the gradual purchase of shares in 4 stages and their gradual sale in 4 stages. However, there is a situation where one of the stages is skipped in the case of buying shares and in the case of selling them. For example, because the Fundamental Strength Indicator and the P/E ratio became acceptable for me only at a certain stage (spectrum) or the moment was missed for a transaction due to technical reasons. In such cases, I buy or sell more than one portion of a stock in the spectrum I am in. The number of additional portions will depend on the number of missed spectra. For example, if I have no position in the stock of the company in question, all conditions for buying the stock have been met, and the current price is in the Orange Spectrum of the Lower Rainbow, I can buy three portions of the stock at once (for the Blue, Green, and Orange Spectrum). I will sell these three portions in the corresponding Upper Rainbow spectra (orange, green, and blue). However, if, for some reason, the Orange Spectrum of the Upper Rainbow was missed, and the current price is in the Green Spectrum - I will sell two portions of the three (in the Green Spectrum). I will sell the last, third portion only when the price reaches the Blue Spectrum of the Upper Rainbow. The table also contains additional information in the form of the current value of the company's market capitalization and P/E ratio. This allows me to use these two indicators within one indicator. Returning to the madness of the market, I would like to mention that this is a reality that cannot be fought, but can be used to achieve results. To get a sense of this, I will give an example of one of the stereotypes of an investor who uses fundamental analysis in his work.His thinking might be: If I valued a company on its financial performance and bought it, then I should stay in the position long enough to justify my expenses of analysis. In this way, the investor deliberately deprives himself of flexibility in decision-making. He will be completely at a loss if the financial performance starts to deteriorate rapidly and the stock price starts to decline rapidly. It is surprising that the same condition will occur in the case of a rapid upward price movement. The investor will torment himself with the question "what to do?" because I just bought stocks of this company, expecting to hold them for the long term. It is at moments like these that I'm aware of the value of the Rainbow Indicator. If it is not a force majeure or a Reverse situation, I just wait until the price reaches the Upper Rainbow. Thus, I can close the position in a year, in a month or in a few weeks. I don't have a goal to hold an open position for a long time, but I do have a goal to constantly adhere to the chosen investment strategy. Part 4: Diversification Ratio If the price is in the Lower Rainbow range and all other criteria are met, it is a good time to ask yourself, "How many shares to buy?" To answer this question, I need to understand how many companies I plan to invest in. Here I adhere to the principle of diversification - that is, distributing investments between the shares of several companies. What is this for? To reduce the impact of any company on the portfolio as a whole. Remember the old saying: don't put all your eggs in one basket. Like baskets, stocks can fall and companies can file for bankruptcy and leave the exchange. In this regard, diversification is a way to avoid losing capital due to investing in only one company. How do I determine the minimum number of companies for a portfolio? This amount depends on my attitude towards the capital that I will use to invest in stocks. If I accept the risk of losing 100% of my capital, then I can only invest in one company. It can be said that in this case there is no diversification. If I accept the risk of losing 50% of my capital, then I should invest in at least two companies, and so on. I just divide 100% by the percentage of capital that I can safely lose. The resulting number, rounded to the nearest whole number, is the minimum number of companies for my portfolio. As for the maximum value, it is also easy to determine. To achieve this, you need to multiply the minimum number of companies by four (this is how many spectra the Lower or Upper Rainbow of the indicator contains). How many companies I end up with in my portfolio will depend on from this set of factors. However, this amount will always fluctuate between the minimum and maximum, calculated according to the principle described above. I call the maximum possible number of companies in a portfolio the diversification coefficient. It is this coefficient that is involved in calculating the number of shares needed to be purchased in a particular spectrum of the Lower Rainbow. How does this work? Let's go to the indicator settings and fill in the necessary fields for the calculation. + Cash in - Cash out +/- Closed Profit/Loss + Dividends - Fees - Taxes +Cash in - the number of finances deposited into my account -Cash out - the number of finances withdrawn from my account +/-Closed Profit/Loss - profit or loss on closed positions +Dividends - dividends received on the account -Fees - broker and exchange commission -Taxes - taxes debited from the account Diversification coefficient The diversification coefficient determines how diversified I want my portfolio to be. For example, a diversification coefficient of 20 means that I plan to buy 20 share portions of different companies, but no more than 4 portions per company (based on the number of Lower Rainbow spectra). The cost of purchased shares of this company (fees excluded) Here, I specify the amount of already purchased shares of the company in question in the currency of my portfolio. For example, if at this point, I have purchased 1000 shares at $300 per share, and my portfolio is expressed in $, I enter - $300,000. The cost of all purchased shares in the portfolio (fees excluded) Here, I enter the amount of all purchased shares for all companies in the currency of my portfolio (without commissions spent on the purchase). This is necessary to determine the amount of available funds available to purchase shares. After entering all the necessary data, I move on to the checkbox, by checking which I confirm that the company in question has successfully passed all preliminary stages of analysis (Fundamental strength indicator, P/E ratio, critical news). Without the check, the calculation is not performed. This is done intentionally because the use of the Rainbow Indicator for the purpose of purchasing shares is possible only after passing all the preliminary stages. Next, I click "Ok" and get the calculation in the form of a table on the left. Market Capitalization The value of a company's market capitalization, expressed in the currency of its stock price. Price / EPS Diluted Current value of the P/E ratio. Free cash in portfolio This is the amount of free cash available to purchase stocks. Please note that the price of the stock and the funds in your portfolio must be denominated in the same currency. On TradingView, you can choose which currency to display the stock price in. Cash amount for one portion The amount of cash needed to buy one portion of a stock. This depends on the diversification ratio entered. If you divide this value + Cash in - Cash out +/- Closed Profit/Loss + Dividends - Fees - Taxes by the diversification coefficient, you get Cash amount for one portion . Potential portions amount Number of portions, available for purchase at the current price. It can be a fractional number. Cash amount to buy The amount of cash needed to buy portions available for purchase at the current price. Shares amount to buy Number of shares in portions available for purchase at the current price. Thus, the diversification ratio is a significant parameter of my stocks' investment strategy. It shows both the limit on the number of companies and the limit on the number of portions for the portfolio. It also participates in calculating the number of finances and shares to purchase at the current price level. Changing the diversification coefficient is possible already during the process of investing in stocks. If my capital ( + Cash in - Cash out +/- Closed Profit/Loss + Dividends - Fees - Taxes ) has changed significantly (by more than Cash amount for one portion ), I always ask myself the same question: "What risk (as a percentage of capital) is acceptable for me now?" If the answer involves a change in the minimum number of companies in the portfolio, then the diversification ratio will also be recalculated. Therefore, the number of finances needed to purchase one portion will also change. We can say that the diversification ratio controls the distribution of finances among my investments. Part 5: Prioritization and Exceptions to the Rainbow Indicator Rules When analyzing a company and its stock price using the Fundamental Strength Indicator and the Rainbow Indicator, a situation may arise where all the conditions for buying are met in two or more companies. At the same time, ⁣ Free cash in the portfolio does not allow me to purchase the required number of portions from different companies. In that case, I need to decide which companies I will give priority to. To decide, I follow the following rules: 1. Priority is given to companies from the top-tier sector group (how these groups are defined is explained in this article ). That is, the first group prevails over the second, and the second over the third. These companies must also meet the purchase criteria described in Part 2. 2. If after applying the first rule, two or more companies have received priority, I look at the value of the Fundamental Strength Indicator. Priority is given to companies that have a fundamental strength of 8 points or higher. They must also be within two points of the leader in terms of fundamental strength. For example, if a leader has a fundamental strength of 12 points, then the range under consideration will be from 12 to 10 points. 3. If, after applying the second rule, two or more companies received priority, I look at which spectrum of the Lower Rainbow the current price of these companies is in. If a company's stock price is on the lower end of the spectrum, I give it priority. 4. If, after applying the third rule, two or more companies have received priority, I look at the P/E ratio. The Company with the lower P/E ratio gets priority. After applying these four rules, I get the company with the highest priority. This is the company that wins the fight for my investment. To figure out the next priority to buy, I repeat this process over and over again to use up all the money I have allocated for investing in stocks. The second part of the guide mentioned two rules that I use when deciding whether to close positions: - The Rule for replacing shares in a portfolio. - Force majeure position closure Rule. They take priority over the Rainbow Indicator. This means that the position may be closed even if the Rainbow indicator does not signal this. Let's consider each rule separately. Portfolio stock replacement Rule Since company stocks are not an asset with a guaranteed return, I can get into a situation where the position is open for a long time without an acceptable financial result. That is, the price of the company's shares is not growing, and the Rainbow indicator does not signal the need to sell shares. In this case, I can replace the problematic companies with a new one. The criteria for a problem company are: - 3 months have passed since the position was opened. - Fundamental strength below 5 points. - The width of both rainbows decreased during the period of holding the position. To identify a new company that will take the place of the problematic one, I use the prioritization principle from this section. At the same time, I always consider this possibility as an option. The thing is that frequently replacing stocks in my portfolio is not a priority for me and is seen as a negative action. A new company would have to have really outstanding parameters for me to take advantage of this option. Force majeure position closure Rule If my portfolio contains stocks of a company that has critical news, then I can close the position without using the Rainbow Indicator. How to determine whether this news is critical or not is described in this article . Part 6: Examples of using the indicator Let’s consider the situation with NVIDIA Corporation stock (ticker - NVDA). September 02, 2022: Fundamental Strength Indicator - 11.46 (fundamentally strong company). P/E - 39.58 (acceptable to me). Current price - $136.47 (is in the Orange Spectrum of the Lower Rainbow). Situation - Obverse. There is no critical news for the company. The basic conditions for buying this company's stock are met. The Rainbow Indicator settings are filled out as follows: The table to the left of the Rainbow Indicator shows how many shares are possible to buy in the Orange Spectrum of Lower Rainbow at the current price = 10 shares. This corresponds to 2.73 portions. To give you an example, I buy 10 shares of NVDA at $136.47 per share. October 14, 2022: NVDA's stock price has moved into the Red Spectrum of the Lower Rainbow. The Fundamental Strength Indicator is 10.81 (fundamentally strong company). P/E is 35.80 (an acceptable level for me). Current price - $112.27 (is in the Red Spectrum of the Lower Rainbow). Situation - Obverse. There is no critical news for the company. The basic conditions for buying this company's stock are still met. The Rainbow Indicator settings are populated as follows: The table to the left of the Rainbow Indicator shows how many shares are possible to buy in the Lower Rainbow Red Spectrum at the current price (5 shares). This corresponds to 1.12 portions. To give you an example, I buy 5 shares of NVDA at $112.27 per share. A total of 3.85 portions were purchased, which is the maximum possible number of portions at the current price level. The remainder in the form of 0.15 portions can be purchased only at a price level below $75 per share. January 23, 2023: The price of NVDA stock passes through the Red Spectrum of the Upper Rainbow and stops in the Orange Spectrum. As an example, I sell 5 shares bought in the Red Spectrum of the Lower Rainbow, for example at $180 per share (+60%). And also a third of the shares bought in the Orange Spectrum, 3 shares out of 10, for example at $190 a share (+39%). That leaves me with 7 shares. January 27, 2023: NVDA's stock price has continued to rise and has moved into the Green Spectrum of the Upper Rainbow. This is a reason to close some of the remaining 7 shares. I divide the 7 shares by 2 and round up to a whole number - that's 4 shares. For my example, I sell 4 shares at $199 a share (+46%). Now I am left with 3 shares of stock. February 02, 2023: The price of NVDA stock moves into the Blue Spectrum of the Upper Rainbow, and I close the remaining 3 shares, for example, at $216 per share (+58%). The entire position in NVDA stock is closed. As you can see, the Fundamental Strength Indicator and the P/E ratio were not used in the process of closing the position. Decisions were made only based on the Rainbow Indicator. As another example, let's look at the situation with the shares of Papa Johns International, Inc. (ticker PZZA). November 01, 2017: Fundamental Strength Indicator - 13.22 points (fundamentally strong company). P/E - 21.64 (acceptable to me). Current price - $62.26 (is in the Blue Spectrum of the Lower Rainbow). Situation - Obverse. There is no critical news for the company. The basic conditions for buying shares of this company are met. The settings of the Rainbow Indicator are filled as follows: The table to the left of the Rainbow Indicator shows how many shares are possible to buy in the Lower Rainbow Blue Spectrum at the current price - 8 shares. This corresponds to 1 portion. To give you an example, I buy 8 shares of PZZA at a price of $62.26. August 8, 2018: PZZA's share price has moved into the Green Spectrum of the Lower Rainbow. The Fundamental Strength Indicator is a 9.83 (fundamentally strong company). P/E is 16.07 (an acceptable level for me). Current price - $38.94 (is in the Green Spectrum of the Lower Rainbow). Situation - Obverse. There is no critical news for the company. The basic conditions for buying shares of this company are still met. The Rainbow Indicator settings are populated as follows: The table to the left of the Rainbow Indicator shows how many shares are possible to buy in the Lower Rainbow Green Spectrum at the current price - 12 shares. This corresponds to 0.93 portions. To give you an example, I buy 12 shares of PZZA at a price of $38.94. A total of 1.93 portions were purchased. October 31, 2018: PZZA's stock price moves into the Upper Rainbow Red Spectrum and is $54.54 per share. Since I did not have any portions purchased in the Lower Rainbow Red Spectrum, there is no closing part of the position. February 01, 2019: After a significant decline, PZZA's stock price moves into the Orange Spectrum of the Lower Rainbow at $38.51 per share. However, I am not taking any action because the company's Fundamental Strength on this day is 5.02 (a fundamentally mediocre company). March 27, 2019: PZZA's stock price passes the green and Blue Spectrum of the Upper Rainbow. This allowed to close the previously purchased 12 shares, for example, at $50 a share (+28%) and 8 shares at $50.38 a share (-19%). Closing the entire position at once was facilitated by a significant narrowing in both rainbows. As we now know, this indicates a decline in earnings at the company. In conclusion of this instruction, I would like to remind you once again that any investment is associated with risk. Therefore, make sure that you understand all the nuances of the indicators before using them. Mandatory requirements for using the indicator: - Works only on a daily timeframe. - The indicator is only applicable to shares of public companies. - Quarterly income statements for the last year are required. - An acceptable for your P/E ratio is required to consider the company's stock for purchase. - The Rainbow Indicator only applies in tandem with the Fundamental Strength Indicator. To consider a company's stock for purchase, you need confirmation that the company is fundamentally strong. What is the value of the Rainbow Indicator? - Clearly demonstrates a company's profit and loss dynamics. - Shows the price ranges that can be used to open and close a position. - Considers the principle of gradual increase and decrease in a position. - Allows calculating the number of shares to be purchased. - Shows the current value of the P/E ratio. - Shows the current capitalization of the company. Risk disclaimer When working with the Rainbow Indicator, keep in mind that the release of the Income statement (from which diluted EPS is derived) occurs some time after the end of the fiscal quarter. This means that the new relevant data for the calculation will only appear after the publication of the new statement. In this regard, there may be a significant change in the Rainbow Indicator after the publication of the new statement. The magnitude of this change will depend on both the content of the new statement and the number of days between the end of the financial quarter and the publication date of the statement. Before the publication date of the new statement, the latest actual data will be used for the calculations. Also, once again, please note that the Rainbow Indicator can only be used in tandem with the Fundamental Strength Indicator and the P/E ratio. Without these additional filters, the Rainbow Indicator loses its intended meaning. The Rainbow Indicator allows you to determine the price ranges for opening and closing a position gradually, based on available data and the methodology I created. You can also use it to calculate the number of shares you can consider buying, considering the position you already have. However, this Indicator and/or its description and examples cannot be used as the sole reason for buying or selling stocks or for any other action or inaction related to stocks.
NASDAQ:NVDAEducation
by Be_Capy
NVIDIA (NVDA): Will $142 or $133.92 Break First?Morning Trading Family NVIDIA is sitting at a key point, and what happens next could lead to a big move. Let’s break it down in simple terms so it’s easy to follow. If NVDA Breaks Above $142 Things could get exciting for the bulls. Here’s what to expect: Breaking above $142 could kick off a solid bull run. We’d likely see momentum push the price higher from there. If NVDA Breaks Below $133.92 The bears might take over, and these levels could show up next: $129: The first stop where some buyers might try to step in. $114: A bigger drop, which would be an important level to watch for support. Here’s the Plan -Watch $142 and $133.92—these are the key levels. -Be ready for a breakout or breakdown, but only trade when it’s confirmed. -Always manage your risk. Use stop-losses and don’t risk more than you’re comfortable losing. If you enjoyed this breakdown, give it a like or follow. Have questions about NVIDIA or any other chart? Send me a DM, and I’ll help you out. Feeling stressed or burned out from trading? You’re not alone. Let’s chat about ways to build a balanced trading mindset that helps you stay in the game for the long term. You’ve got this! Kris/Mindbloome Exchange Trade What You See
NASDAQ:NVDA
by Mindbloome-Trading
15
Take a Long Position on Nvidia: Targeting Growth Next Week- Key Insights: Nvidia continues to establish itself as a leader in the GPU market, driven by strong demand in gaming, AI, and data centers. The upcoming quarterly earnings report is a key catalyst, creating potential for upward price movement. Market sentiment remains bullish as institutional investors have shown increased interest, further bolstered by the company's robust product offerings and future growth prospects in AI and machine learning applications. - Price Targets: For next week, I am setting targets as follows: T1 at 142.50, T2 at 145.00. For stop levels, I recommend S1 at 135.00 and S2 at 132.00. This positioning reflects a cautious optimistic approach within a favorable trading range. - Recent Performance: Over the past month, Nvidia's stock has exhibited volatility, aligning with broader tech market trends. However, despite fluctuations, the overall trajectory remains upward as strong earnings from key segment drivers suggest resilience and potential for growth. The past week has seen a modest increase, highlighting positive investor sentiment. - Expert Analysis: Analysts express a generally optimistic outlook, noting Nvidia’s leadership in critical growth areas such as AI and cloud computing. Many experts believe that the stock has ample room to grow, particularly as new technologies emerge and the market expands. Sentiment remains largely positive, with expectations for the upcoming earnings report providing a further boost to confidence. - News Impact: Recent announcements regarding new product launches and partnerships have invigorated market interest. Additionally, ongoing developments in AI technology and their implications for industries like automotive and healthcare have kept investors engaged. Competitor activity and legislative changes in tech regulation are also factors to monitor, as they could directly impact Nvidia's business landscape.
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by CrowdWisdomTrading
1
NVDA Approaching Key Levels! Scalping, Swing, and Options PlaysScalping Analysis for NVDA: 1. Support and Resistance Levels: * Immediate support at $133 (put wall) and $132 (gamma support). * Resistance near $140 (call wall) and $142-$145 (gamma resistance zones). 2. Key Indicators: * 9 EMA & 21 EMA: Price is trading near these EMAs, showing indecision. A breakout above or rejection below these levels will provide clarity for scalping opportunities. * MACD: Bullish crossover indicates potential upward momentum, but confirmation is needed with volume. 3. Scalping Plan: * Bearish Scenario: * Entry: On rejection near $138-$140. * Target: $135, $133. * Stop Loss: Above $141. * Bullish Scenario: * Entry: Breakout above $140 with volume. * Target: $142, $145. * Stop Loss: Below $138. Swing/Day Trading Analysis for NVDA: 1. Trendlines: * NVDA recently broke below a rising channel, signaling potential downside unless it reclaims the channel. 2. GEX Analysis: * Strong resistance at $140 (call wall) and $145 (major gamma resistance). * Solid put support at $133 and $130 suggests limited downside in the near term. 3. Trade Scenarios: * Bullish Swing: * Entry: Near $133-$135 on support confirmation or breakout above $140. * Target: $142, $145. * Stop Loss: Below $132. * Bearish Swing: * Entry: Breakdown below $133 with retest confirmation. * Target: $130, $127. * Stop Loss: Above $135. Options Play with GEX Insights: 1. High GEX Areas: * Call Wall: $140, $145. * Put Wall: $133, $130. 2. Suggested Options Strategy: * Bullish Play: * Buy Jan 5th $140 Call if NVDA sustains above $140 with volume. * Target: Move toward $142-$145. * Risk: $138. * Bearish Play: * Buy Jan 5th $130 Put if NVDA breaks below $133. * Target: $130-$127. * Risk: $135. 3. Options Oscillator Metrics: * Low IVR (22.1%) indicates options premiums are cheaper, making directional plays favorable. * Call bias (12.2%) suggests slight bullish sentiment, but resistance at $140 could cap gains. Insights: * NVDA is at a pivotal zone with strong gamma resistance and put support. A breakout above $140 or a breakdown below $133 will likely define the next directional move. * Volume is Key: Watch for confirmation of breakouts or breakdowns with a spike in trading volume. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always trade responsibly and manage risk.
NASDAQ:NVDA
by BullBearInsights
1
Volatility Is Back - NVIDIA Is Not Our DarlingTHESIS: SPX lacks diversification due to mega cap dominance. Year end looks towards projections regarding 2nd Trump term in office (tariffs price concern, Geopolitical policies, uncertain stance on Taiwan defence.) Prolific investors are seeking opportunities elsewhere as US Mega Cap stocks overpriced (Buffet as example selling Apple and BoA shares.) Institutional ownership at approx 65%, sell side orders outweigh buy-side, reverse repo down from 2.3 Trillion to 116 Billion on Treasury. NVDA trend is currently downward, looking to correct value - I am looking for those key areas. Several large gaps persist, leading to opportunities to buy later $75 a share is the target. Housing market cycle is coming to an end, yield curve has just about normalised to upward sloping, treasury yields jumped on FED meeting Dec. Final piece of inflation puzzle is asset prices, SPY rejection from 600 is key indication of end of bull trend, large volume flows and VIX spikes indicative of further retracement. ACTION Hedge US mega stock exposure using VIX derivatives whilst premium is low. Short NVDA and other mega caps using mid dated options, plenty of Theta, ATH strikes. Look for where the newly created liquidity from the mega caps goes to - potentially mid-caps with strong fundamentals, potentially to currently very underpriced treasuries offering strong yields.
NASDAQ:NVDAShort
by dmchardy98
The #1 Trading SecretAm still hurt about the argument i had with that young person I feel so sad and sometimes angry young people have so much power i wish i could help them see the truth if i was younger i wish i had someone like me with the experience and knowledge to help me sadly it will never happen without commitment the only way i can help them is if they come into my environment going to help someone without a plan to bring them into your environment is not a good strategy this is why i only share trading secrets inside trading communities, Look at this chart below is the MACD indicator showing you a buy signal plus the price action is above the 50 ema and the 200 ema also, this stock is trending upwards which means it's a good trend buy. Thats the number #1 Secret of trading buy a stock like NASDAQ:NVDA that is trending up or gaping up, Rocket boost this content to learn more. Disclaimer: Trading is risky please learn risk management and profit-taking strategies Also use a simulation trading tool before you trade with real money.
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by lubosi
NVIDIA and Tesla TechnicalsNVIDIA As much as I want the train to keep moving forward, we are at an inflection point where the bears are starting to really pile in. The bulls are pulling back, and we may experience that -10% S&P correction. Everyone says this would be "healthy" for the markets, which would align in the traditional sense. However, we live in a different time now. With emerging markets and excess capital, companies are healthy. But, the economy is weakening. The Biden Administration has propped up the stock market with faulty "jobs numbers" adding ridiculous amount of government employees to supplement Jots Jobs Reports. Furthermore, this is the time of year for reallocation for major capital holders. Hence, the volatility increase. I fear the Bears are taking advantage of this time to pile on. NVIDIA had an increase of shorted shares by 4.5% in December. If the Bears take over and the bulls pull back NVIDIA will move down to $120 NVIDIA at $120 is inside "The Golden Fibonacci Pocket", a round number, AND the HIGHEST VOLUME Price level for the entire year of 2024. 3 VERY significant technical reasons big money will wait for this $120 level to be reached. It will ALSO be where the Shorts of $139-$140 will cover. This could spawn a V shape recovery from $120 flying HIGH straight to $160 ($4 Trillion Market Cap). Apple is at $3.85 Trillion. NVIDIA currently does more Net income with 30% the Revenue that Apple does. Who will reach $4 Trillion first? TESLA In a much more simple analysis. TESLA is currently testing the 78% Fibonnaci Level. Already flushed through the short time frame "Golden Pocket". So, the 78% Fib is the last line of support for TESLA. The break of the 78% Fib level will be a clear sign of a move down to a lower low, with support being around the bottom of the downtrend channel seen in the chart. IF interested in shorting TESLA is the better one.... currently. However, that could change. I personally will only Day trade SHORTING TESLA looking for the $365 level to start buying in, and dollar cost averaging down. TESLA is here to stay, I'm sure. Same with NVIDIA JUST REMEMBER... Apple has gained 60,000% since 2001.... and I believe NVIDIA is the future. Because, AI is the future. Like smart phones were the future. I believe AI will be bigger than Tele-Communications.
NASDAQ:NVDA
by Scottlee74136
NVIDIA 12-28 🔥 LucanInvestor’s Commands: 🩸 Resistance: $137.50. A breakout targets $140 and $145 as the next significant levels. 🩸 Support: $136.00. A breakdown exposes $133 and $130, aligning with key EMA zones. 🔥 LucanInvestor’s Strategy: 🩸 Long: Above $137.50, aiming for $140 and $145 as momentum strengthens. 🩸 Short: Below $136.00, targeting $133 and $130. 🩸 NVIDIA's MACD suggests consolidation, with the stock hovering around key EMA levels. Bulls should hold longs above $137.50, while bears can short below $136.00. Volume spikes at critical levels will confirm the direction. 👑 "Dominance belongs to those who act decisively in the chaos of the market." — LucanInvestor
NASDAQ:NVDA
by LucanInvestor
NVDA- MONTHLY, TOP IS IN Be cautious out there traders. Looking at the monthly here we can see the last several months the sellers have started taking control. Look at all the top wicks the last few months compared to the last two years. In my opinion a major reversal is coming over the months ahead. I like this company but nothing goes up forever. It’s due for a good correction. The $90 level will be the first test. We will take it level by level and update along the way. Be safe out there
NASDAQ:NVDAShort
by Thetraderedge
$NVDA inverted h&s 4H daily. Short term play. I grabbed 200 cons of 150c for 1/3/2025 avg. @.17. I may be crazy but I’m fun. Should see a burp to $140. $135 very very strong. Low volume today and the whole market reacted the same way so not really too worried. Looking to see where we are New Year’s Eve with a shortened week once again but the tendency seems to be super boost before a holiday. Day before Thanksgiving and day before Christmas the market went big green but we have a full day NYE not half. Also within that tendency there seems to be some type of dip prior. Interesting to watch. Strong close 12/27. We’ll see, we’ll see. I’m manifesting $140 Monday and $144 Tuesday and I’d sell 150 contracts. I’ll be in touch. WSL
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by wallstreetloser001
Stock Market Logic Series #12 TradingView is so awesome that they let you change any piece of the chart . You can use this chart template for visual clarity. FYI, all my chart templates, are for visual clarity trading purposes, you can choose anyone that looks good for your eyes. So in this chapter in the series #12 lets see what we have here. 1 - The trendline is still alive. 2 - On the correction, you can see that there is a high volume on the upside. So it means that the puppet master is buying. 3 - You could see that there are 3 down candles, on increasing volume, but their spread is smaller and smaller. So it means that the puppet master also buying on the downside, also, stops where hit there strongly, and many people stopped out directly into the hands of the puppet master, classic puppet master move. 4 - The biggest volume is on the up side ! since this is the last (recent) piece of information, this is what counts! so currently, the chart is LONG biased. 5 - Crack pattern AWARENESS- if the price will test the low, it will be the crack pattern and then the price can go down up until $105 again. It will also be a break of trendline so it makes sense that there will be a fast SHORT move. But if the price goes to test $135 and then makes $140 push, it will be a failure of the crack pattern, which increases even more dramatically the LONG bias. WHY? Because if it is short... the crack pattern should materialize... since it can't materialize... it means it is not short, so it is LONG. #### I already showed the same exact logic, in AMD, failed crack pattern (in the past posts). #### 2 & 3 & 4 Examplify beautifully my concept of FORCE of the puppet master.
NASDAQ:NVDAEducation
by ZoharCho
6