On semiconductor monthly chatGood 4 short, medium and long term traders
First target 83.5$
Second target : 85$ & more 😉
ONSE trade ideas
if $NXPI can be up on its earning report, $ON can tooCFRA likes ON’s exposure to the industrial and automotive markets, about 80% of revenue,
which should support profit margins and better growth opportunities long term. That said, CFRA
sees near-term softness within certain industrial applications and inventory digestion within the
automotive space, similar to peers. Long term, CFRA remain optimistic about content gain
potential within the automotive space due to the electrification of the vehicle (EVs) and
Advanced Driver Assistance System (ADAS) adoption. CFRA see content growth partly
offsetting any potential automotive end demand weakness, while we expect SiC demand
to sharply outpace capacity growth (grew to $800M in 2023 from $200M in 2022; $2.5B
potentially in 2027). Given healthy free cash flow, we see more aggressive buybacks ahead
(new SEED_TVCODER77_ETHBTCDATA:3B authorization in February).
ON potential Buy setupReasons for bullish bias:
- Price gave triangle breakout
- Price bounce from support
- LH breakout
- No divergence
Here are the recommended trading levels:
Entry Level(CMP): 78.74
Stop Loss Level: 58.74
Take Profit Level 1: 98.74
Take Profit Level 2: 110.26
Take Profit Level 3: Open
ON 4.3:1 possible resurgence after November's dropNASDAQ:ON fell hard November 2023, we could see it rise to previous levels, firstly we can point out the main support at $60, the main resistance at around $87 and some around $75, I'm assuming an entry point at $62 or $61. My SL is right below the support at $57.8 and my TP at $83.3. Personally I would also sell a third of the shares at $75 just to lock in some of the profits and include a trailing stop loss somewhere below that. Of course we will see how things play out and I will keep this post updated as things play out.
ON potential Buy setupReasons for bullish bias:
- Price bounced from support
- Bullish Harmonic XABCD pattern
- Strong bullish candles at support
- Positive Earnings
Here are the recommended trading levels:
Entry Level(CMP): 73.58
Stop Loss Level: 67.16
Take Profit Level 1: 80
Take Profit Level 2: 85.99
Take Profit Level 3: Open
ON Semiconductor - betting on corrective UT rallyOn Semi conductor's selling has been weakened since Nov 23 and the larger falling wedge is pointing towards a larger bullish reversal pattern. First the cup and handle is close to a completion and will confirm the pattern once it breaks above US$72.84 resistance.
Volume is low but is a potential sign of accumulation. Long-term MACD is close to a bottom crossover. Stochastic Oscillator is oversold. 23-period ROC shows bullish divergence.
Hence will consider buying at spot or wait for pullback at 65.13 support. Target is at 79.85 and 98.54.
ON Semi - possible ABC correctionON semi pattern is a bit sceptical. The stock was in a super uptrend peaking at ATH 111+ tested 87-89 area, broke out to 111, but quickly reversed in few weeks and again couple times tested the same resistance of 87-89.
Assuming 111 was an end of wave 5, as we did not have other highs tested, we are now in a serious ABC correction shaping a H&S pattern as tentatively indicated in the chart. Fairness sake would not presume it’s a true H&S, as there is no boost in volume on red candles of the right shoulder as well as the height of a neckline should bring the stock in theory down to 8 what either makes no sense.
Out of ABC correction wave (A) reversed fibo 0.768 of wave (5) ending at neckline 61.50, then wave (B) retraced 0.5 of wave (A) to 87 resistance mentioned above. Hence, correction wave (C) should be as long as either 25 (fibo 0.5 W(A)), or 31 (fibo .618 W(A)). The former brings us to 62, while the latter matches the H&S hypothetical neckline of 56. I wonder to see if it tests 56 and if it does break, then it’s not an ABC correction of the uptrend, but a downtrend as such and we are in wave (3) of the downtrend!
ON Semiconductor lags its leading peer Engulfing Candle LONGON shown on a 30 minute chart- has fallen behind but is a top 50 seached on the the Zack
website. It recently trended down from a push to outside the Bollinger Bands showing extreme
buying volaility and price action than a big fade into selling volatility and a slight compression.
The TTM squeeze fired just as price fell outside the lower band. Price rose abruptly into and
over the trendline and then printed a so called" Big Ass Candle" engulfing about five
hours of price action. This is a strong buy. ON will work to catch up with MU NVDA and the
frontrunners. I will profit while it runs that race.
Car related Semiconductors supply metJust passing along a news headline I read last week. It said that the auto industry has finally caught up with the demand from auto-related semi chips.
Remember when GM couldn't release anymore SUV's until it found chips for the AC units?
ON Semi could've well been the supplier. But now that demand has softened, and supply is more plentiful, what does it mean for this company?
I haven't analyzed their balance sheet but I'm willing to bet there's nothing in there to make you pay up now for a semi chip company isn't in the spotlight anymore. They cater to other industries, yes, but auto is their bread and butter.
I'm not saying it's a bad company because it isn't, the macro situation just doesn't do it justice right now. What for sub $50 to buy this stock again.
ON: Potential BuyPrice has broken the downwards trend line with very bullish momentum. I'm expecting the upside to continue backed with positive analyst expectations.
$ON poised to fill the upside gap...Update: NASDAQ:ON +177% since the start of 2020. Signal comes back in line at 73.32 and fills the gap at 80.51. I would look at an upward retrace to the 0.5 (81.38) the same as an upside gap fill.
Given the depth of oversold on the 1D RSI in combination with an extremely high central tendency illustrated by the Pearson's R^2 of 0.94, a 'dead cat bounce' to the upside is not unreasonable to expect in the near term.
As long as price remains above the RET 1 (61.47) I believe NASDAQ:ON will retrace the 0.5 at 81.38 by the end of the year.
If price does not remain above the 61.47 level and further selling pressure is applied to the 'EV economy', a spill down to the 1.382 (46.26) is not out of the question.
130 day volume index flows (bottom indicator) remain constructive despite the recent sell off, implying a market willingness to absorb price at these levels.
Not financial advice. All stocks can go to zero.
On Onsemi SemiconductorComing off oversold and making a bounce at a trendline established in March of 2020. Financials look good. Future EV and Electonics looks to become more prevalent. Onsemi may bounce back nicely from its recent sell off. Probably in the range of $77 and $80 where there was prior activity.
$ON: The EV downside is already priced in.$ON:1D
With the earnings forecast providing downside price pressure on the longterm trend, NASDAQ:ON hits the lowest level on its1D RSI in over two years.
Needless to say, our trend has been weakened from a Pearson’s R^2 of 0.91 down to a Pearson’s R^2 of 0.88 while losing a little more than 3% of the longterm trend strength in the process.
While there are significant headwinds facing the EV market at current, from supply constraint’s on graphite to scaling EV’s across our shaky electrical grid system, it seems as though NASDAQ:ON has those concerns ‘overly priced in’ and could be poised for a rebound along with the broader semi-conductor market.
I would expect NASDAQ:ON to make an attempt at coming ‘back in line’ with its long term trend and to make a move up to the lower 3rd standard deviation line at 76.49 and possibly higher before year’s end.
Not financial advice. All stocks can go to zero.
$ON: EV headwinds are priced in.$ON:1D
With the earnings forecast providing downside price pressure on the longterm trend, NASDAQ:ON hits the lowest level on its1D RSI in over two years.
Needless to say, our trend has been weakened from a Pearson’s R^2 of 0.91 down to a Pearson’s R^2 of 0.88 while losing a little more than 3% of the longterm trend strength in the process.
While there are significant headwinds facing the EV market at current, from supply constraint’s on graphite to scaling EV’s across our shaky electrical grid system, it seems as though NASDAQ:ON has those concerns ‘overly priced in’ and could be poised for a rebound along with the broader semi-conductor market.
I would expect NASDAQ:ON to make an attempt at coming ‘back in line’ with its long term trend and to make a move up to the lower 3rd standard deviation line at 76.49 and possibly higher before year’s end.
Not financial advice. All stocks can go to zero.
Stocks pairs trading: LSCC vs ONIn the semiconductor sector, Lattice Semiconductor (LSCC) and ON Semiconductor (ON) offer contrasting financial metrics and growth prospects. Going long on LSCC and short on ON could capitalize on their differences, aiming for a reversion to their historical performance relationship.
Why Go Long on Lattice Semiconductor (LSCC):
Valuation: LSCC has a higher P/E of 47.88 compared to ON's 19.15, often an indication that the market expects higher growth prospects from LSCC. Additionally, LSCC's forward P/E of 28.53 signals that the market is expecting the earnings to improve in the near future.
Profitability: LSCC has an ROA of 27.38% and an ROE of 40.53%, which are both higher than ON’s figures of 16.60% and 31.59%, respectively. This indicates better utilization of assets and equity for LSCC. The expected EPS growth for the next year for LSCC is 17.96%, which is more than double ON's expected 8.33%.
Performance Metrics: Despite recent short-term declines, LSCC has had a strong Perf Year of 38.90%, making it a candidate for a potential rebound.
Why Short ON Semiconductor (ON):
Valuation: While ON’s current P/E of 19.15 is lower, its forward P/E of 14.76 may not show as much expected growth in earnings as LSCC, given that ON's current P/E is already lower than LSCC's forward P/E.
Short Interest: ON has a short float ratio of 5.49%, indicating some level of negative sentiment, which could support a short position.
Profitability: Although ON has healthy profitability metrics, they are generally lower than LSCC's. An ROA of 16.60% and ROE of 31.59% don't measure up to LSCC’s robust figures.
Performance Metrics: ON has seen negative trends in the Perf Week, Perf Month, and Perf Quarter metrics, which may reinforce the short position.
Decision:
Long on 1 LSCC
Short on 1 ON
does the ON the bullish trend continue👁👀very strong trend since May 2023, sitting right at support now. Bounce here and we rally to 111-114 resistance area.
also a very strong RSI Support zone, boost and follow for more. thanks 💛
ON Entry, Volume, Target, StopEntry: with price above 105.35
Volume: with volume greater than 5.23M
Target: 110.55 area (this is an area, no guarantee it reaches this price, but you should be selling on the way up)
Stop: Depending on your risk tolerance; Based on an entry of 105.36, 102.77 gets you 2/1 Reward to Risk Ratio.
This LONG swing trade idea is not trade advice and is strictly based on my ideas and technical analysis. No due diligence or fundamental analysis was performed while evaluating this trade idea. Do not take this trade based on my idea, do not follow anyone blindly, do your own analysis and due diligence. I am not a professional trader.
ON Entry, Volume, Target, StopEntry: when price clears 89.84
Volume: with average daily volume
Target: 98 area
Stop: depending on your risk tolerance; 87.13 gets you 3/1 Risk/Reward.
This swing trade idea is not trade advice and is strictly based on my ideas and technical analysis. No due diligence or fundamental analysis was performed while evaluating this trade idea. Do not take this trade based on my idea, do not follow anyone blindly, do your own analysis and due diligence. I am not a professional trader.
$ON BULLISH WEEKLY CHART!Let take a look at the recent weekly close. A nice simple base has formed. We see the price dropped to the 8 day ma at $78.60 but ate all the way up to $86.50 and closed near the weekly high. The indicates great strength to me. Institutional buying seen here with the above average volume. Your chance to get in was at $78.60, maybe I'll get in on a break of $90. Do your own homework before investing in stocks.
ON - RisingTrend Channel [MID TERM]- ON is in a rising trend channel in the medium long term.
- ON has broken a resistance level and given a positive signal for the long-term trading range.
- In case of a negative reaction, the stock has support at approximately 76.00 .
*EP: Enter Price, SL: Support, TP: Take Profit, CL: Cut Loss, TF: Time Frame, RST: Resistance, RTS: Resistance to be Support LT TP: Long Term Target Price
*Chart Pattern:
DT - Double Top | BEARISH | RED
DB - Double Bottom | BULLISH | GREEN
HNS - Head & Shoulder | BEARISH | RED
REC - Rectangle | BLUE
iHNS - inverse head & Shoulder | BULLISH | GREEN
Verify it first and believe later.
WavePoint ❤️
ON BREAKOOUT BUYGREAT R/R if breakout happen on god name ow risk
great market conditions if market follows this stock is $$$
ON - Rising Trend Channel [MID TERM]- ON is in a rising trend channel in the medium long term.
- The stock has broken up through resistance at 76.00.
- In case of negative reactions, there will now be support at 76.00.
- The stock is assessed as technically positive for the medium long term
*EP: Enter Price, SL: Support, TP: Take Profit, CL: Cut Loss, TF: Time Frame, RST: Resistance, RTS: Resistance to be Support LT TP: Long Term Target Price
*Chart Pattern:
DT - Double Top | BEARISH | RED
DB - Double Bottom | BULLISH | GREEN
HNS - Head & Shoulder | BEARISH | RED
REC - Rectangle | BLUE
iHNS - inverse head & Shoulder | BULLISH | GREEN
Verify it first and believe later.
WavePoint ❤️
$ON push to new ATH?$ON is in a great symmetrical triangle.
It's in the lower portion of it and looks pretty good.
For upside I would like a hold of $76 and of course a hold of the bottom part of the triangle.
Targets around 90-92$.
