#ULTA#ULTA - conditional prediction
- if the market goes below 420, there is a high chance of a post-earnings gap.
ULTA trade ideas
ULTA SHORT Following the Gap on the results, where after the results the price dropped to 400, it's been on the retreat since backto 458. This is also 38% on the Fib, and looks to have rejected the level so expect to see this head down. Have captured the supply and demand levels and expect to see 400 retested sometime soon and then heading to 342......
ULTA - pullback or reversal?NASDAQ:ULTA gapped down after lowering guidance in their recent earnings call. The current price completes the proportional gap down and brings it to the 0.382 of the uptrend from the covid low, as well as an area with strong volume support. I'm looking for an entry at $393, TP at $460, and SL at $358.
Note that May 2022 was the last time that earnings guidance shifted sentiment and trend, and that a fib time zone from that period closely aligns with peaks and troughs. I'll look to draw the same once we have established forward sentiment from the current earnings guidance.
ULTA Beauty Options Ahead of EarningsLooking at the ULTA Beauty Options options chain ahead of earnings , I would buy the $480 strike price Puts with
2023-9-15 expiration date for about
$28.90 premium.
If the options turn out to be profitable Before the earnings release, I would sell at least 50%.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
ULTA - LONG Well back in for another try with LABU here in aftermarket , had to pay a bit of a premium to get a fill but still pretty near the close and I actually daytraded it in a seperate account earlier near the open and just sold that so I suppose that made up for the difference I paid here in the aftermarket for the swing account . The fill price I ended up paying was 535.20... was out hiking during the close...worth it .
Market/ General update :
Bulls still failed to get us out ( and keep us out) of this Trading range on QQQ but overall looks like they are winning , slightly . Will be watching closely monday , Looks like ELF was on Santa's sleigh again though , quite the mover that one , everything else held more or less ....
Have a happy weekend ~
ULTA has Overextended Strength SHORTULTA a women's beauty focused company has benefitted from the end of the Covid Era,
Earnings reports have been rock solid for sure.
I think ULTA is overdue for a correction.
On the 4H Chart, supply and demand zones are per the LuxAlgo indicator. Price touched
and retested demand several times last summer and early fall. It is now touching and testing
the supply zone above the POC line of the long term volume profile. It is in the overvalued
region of the long term anchored VWAP bands.
The Wycoff buying /selling oscillator is still positive but with a decreasing amplitude.
I see ULTA as setting up for a short sell entry. The entry could be now but a better
entry would wait for price to get under the POC line at HKEX:528 and the volume oscillator
turn to negative with the histogram below the zero line showing bearish volume momentum.
My preferred position is a put option at a strike of HKEX:530 expiring on 5/19/23.
ULTA , LONG This actually turned to a false entry by end of day , took it with less than 15 minutes left in the day , but unfortunately its signal could not hold , the reason I take my trades close to the close and sometimes after is exactly to avoid this and had I noticed earlier , I would have actually got out ...
Not to say it might not still work though so lets see , but not a proper signal , was actually either this or ACGL but I chose this because it has stronger RS... It is a fairly stronger stock so lets see how it handles FOMC tomorrow , but I expect to get stopped out with the bad close ...
Perhaps a Bit ToppyThis is a strong stock and also a Market darling.
Who knows? It could go up forever. I do not think so.
I know women love make up but Holy Cow. This is just not something I would buy way up here but we are all different.
Price is above the .236 of the trend up bit.
Something does not feel right and I could be wrong.
Earnings are estimated on 5-25. Short is less than 3%.
Risky to short as the folks that own this love it. Risky to go long way up here right now too.
I choose Short due to the huge move up and possible M pattern, for now but time will tell.
No recommendation
Ulta Beauty Strategy(1/2) Fundamental Analysis - Hello, this is my strategy on ticker $ULTA. I believe the stock is a great long-term buy-and-hold investment, but not at this time. The stock is undoubtedly overvalued. A recent study published by Macrotrends showed Ulta Beauty shares outstanding for the quarter ending January 31, 2023 were 0.051B. This is a decline of 7.05% YoY. The current downward macroeconomic trend and bearish customer sentiment in the market has caused a lot of disruption. What is really driving this stock? The company's financials look great, but have outpaced the market significantly. I believe this stock will pull back in the near future. Unless the company announces a dividend, I am bearish for the short term. Additionally, the company has seen a significant decrease in volume = a decrease in demand - but the stock is still soaring?
(2/2) Technical Analysis - I believe anywhere above $510 is a good place to short. The S/L should be $530 because I believe if the stock doesn't want to break, it will retest the resistance at $537 and run to around $550. The downside is about $20 and the upside is anywhere from $100-$130 for this short position. I see a clear long-term uptrend, but a short term decline before it heads up again. My target is from $390-$410. On March 13, 2023, the 200MA broke the 50MA on the 1H. I believe the 4H 50MA started a reversal. The 200MA is on the rise to try and break the 50MA. This stock will decline little bit little and eventually when the 200MA breaks the 50MA, we will see a significant decline and price. That should be our selling point.
Rising WedgeBearish Rising Wedge noted.
The bottom trendline remains in tact so it is not valid.
Both trendlines are sloping up and narrowing as the apex.
The lines show that the highs and the lows are either rising or falling at differing rates, giving the appearance of a wedge as the lines approach a convergence. Wedge shaped trend lines are considered useful indicators of a potential reversal in price action
Earnings are 3-9 and analysts appear positive on numbers.
No recommendation.
Short is around 3%.
ULTA: CAPPEDULTA hit the top of it's long term channel and bounced off resistance. It also hit the highest fib extension which is the first I've stock I've seen in the last few years to do so. Lastly, it is in an uptrend since October, so expect ULTA to fall below support as early as next week. Short term price targets are 494 and 486.
Not financial advice
Reanalyzing ULTAI bought puts on ULTA yesterday and I wish I would've waited until today. Oh well, they were well in the money, so I wasn't hurting too terribly today. Anyway, after the run up today, I looked at other alternatives for a stopping point. I don't ever use fib extension levels above 4.236 mostly because those targets are hardly ever hit, but after ULTA surpassed that level, I exited my previous strategy and looked at other alternatives for a stopping point. After pulling out the 4.618 and 4.764 fib extension levels, I'm sticking to the 4.764 as a last final target range of 525-529. Daily RSI is also the highest its been January 2020, so I'm not convinced it has more room to run. If 530 is broken, I'll reevaluate.
Top of ULTA (revised)Here's a 2nd chart of ULTA with less clutter
"Bought PUTS yesterdays on ULTA because I knew I'd miss todays morning move to hit the 1.618 fib extension. Today should be the highest point ULTA will hit for some time. Price target was 511 and some change for the smaller 1.618 extension which began on Jan 18 '23 as well as the larger 1.618 fib extension which began on Dec. 8 '22 which were both hit this morning. Weekly RSI is at 80.53 and daily is 73.17 and starting to trend downward. Short term price target is 458 (.382 fib retracement) and long term price target of 427 (.618 fib retracement). Something to note is the downgrade to $400 by Wells Fargo earlier this month.
Not financial advice"
Top of ULTABought PUTS yesterdays on ULTA because I knew I'd miss todays morning move to hit the 1.618 fib extension. Today should be the highest point ULTA will hit for some time. Price target was 511 and some change for the smaller 1.618 extension which began on Jan 18 '23 as well as the larger 1.618 fib extension which began on Dec. 8 '22 which were both hit this morning. Weekly RSI is at 80.53 and daily is 73.17 and starting to trend downward. Short term price target is 458 (.382 fib retracement) and long term price target of 427 (.618 fib retracement). Something to note is the downgrade to $400 by Wells Fargo earlier this month.
Not financial advice
