UNH trade ideas
UNH trade 4/1/20market outlook:
-Vixcentral: contango, no overt flattening of curve from M1-3 for the past week
-VIX bouncing between 22-24 the past week which may indicate slow steady growth of SPY
-SPY on up-trend, not overextended based on 20EMA
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UNH - united health grp
Almost correlates to SPY - went down when SPY went down but did not recover as much as the SPY in the past few months
On 1H chart,
a) just broke out of a 2 week triangle
b) just crossed a resistance
c) Crossed resistance with a hammer
d) Crossed resistance with high volume and a volume ramp
e) prior to hammer, there was a series of 4 green candlesticks that almost looks like 3 white solders pattern
UNH - United Healthcare Overpriced?United Healthcare is trading between the upper Bollinger bands and upper Keltner channel bands and it couldn't be at a better time. The topic of the affordable care act is now making headlines as Republican-led states and the Trump administration voice their case to the Supreme Courts today, claiming that the Affordable Care Act Mandate is unconstitutional. While the outcome of this case is still pending and may not have an impact on the stock, United Healthcare has been known to react whenever there is a potential change in how Americans receive healthcare. Today, President elect Joe Biden made a speech in favor of keeping and protecting the affordable care act. Let's see if any of these recent events surrounding the affordable care act have an effect on United Healthcare's stock over the next few days.
Just looking at the charts, my opinion is that the stock is overpriced. The stock is trading higher relative to the exponential moving average on the chart. So, any news related to the Affordable Care Act supreme court case could encourage a sell off.
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SPHealth 2 Week Comparisons (Oct 7-20 2020)SPHealth - Growth Analysis & Comparison - Cindicator Poll Submission (October 7th - 20th 2020)
I've been looking through my Cindicator questions, making forecasts and watching markets as new polls pop up. Here's a comparison chart for 5 major S&P health companies and my rankings forecast.
(Descending order from most growth to least)
United Health Group Inc (UNH)
Abbott Labs (ABT)
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)
Pfizer Inc. (PFE)
Merck & Co. (MRK)
This forecast will be explicitly graded by total growth % comparisons of opening prices on October 7th to closing prices on October 20th across the 5 aforementioned companies.
As of right now before 10-9-20 daily market open, the percentage growth is as follows:
UNH +1.9%
PFE +1.87%
JNJ +1.56%
ABT +1.1%
MRK +0.54%
When looking at a specific metric within the already completed duration since I submitted my forecast, overall recent growth is:
UNH +2.82%
PFE +2.66%
JNJ +2.24%
MRK +2.22%
ABT +1.62%
10-9-20 Forecast Adjustments:
Now that I have seen the last 2 days play out, I'm starting to notice a couple things about my forecast and actual live value.
I'm confident that United Health will still outperform, but this outlook could change if any major market sell off occurs before the 20th. Pfizer looks like it could be a strong runner up, and I may have flubbed my original forecast by ranking it 4th in growth. Johnson & Johnson is performing approximately as expected. Merck and Abbott Labs could be tricky to pinpoint exactly without some further research and analysis but, I'm guessing that Abbott may come in 4th place if everything settles after any quick rallies that should happen. If a light pump in Merck occurs over the 19th-20th, then there could be a small chance it outperforms Abbott for 4th but it feels like an unlikely scenario.
After these deliberations, I've decided my forecast doesn't need much adjusting other than to swap the placement of Pfizer and Abbott. My updated forecast is as follows:
United Health Group Inc (UNH)
Pfizer Inc. (PFE)
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)
Abbott Labs (ABT)
Merck & Co. (MRK)
One thing to note is that I believe TradingView is not calculating its percentage scale correctly, its placing the 0% Y axis at the close value of the first candle used to calculate growth. So this graph is really just more for me to check my own work by hand, as the percentages on the left will not accurately portray what is actually being graded by Cindicator.
I'll check back in after the 20th to see how this turned out!
Thanks for tuning in :) Disclaimer, I am not responsible for any losses incurred while attempting to use my data, I hope this can prove to be some sort of learning tool for some and give insight as to how I personally come up with my own numbers. Take into full consideration this could be a completely bad forecast. Cheers