#WHEAT 🟢 M5 LONG
Medium-term deal on Wheat.
Entrance to retest M5 imbalance
The trend is downward, but the imbalance requires a corrective movement
input: 668.3 (on imbalance retest)
stop: 664.1
tp-1: 672.6
tp-2: 681.1
WHEAT trade ideas
Wheat retracement done?Chicago wheat tried to stage a Thursday recovery but faded a dime from the earlier highs to close 2 1/4 to 3 1/2 cents in the red. Spring wheat prices also faded 5-9 cents from their intra-day highs, but held onto 3 3/4 to 7 1/4 cent gains for the close. HRW futures extended the week’s pullback with another 5 3/4 to 7 1/2 cent losses on Thursday.
The weekly Export Sales report showed 155,167 MT of wheat was sold during the week that ended 6/22. Estimates were to see between 50k and 400k MT. By class, HRS makes up 30.3% of the committed 23/24 business. HRW sits at 22% with 30% for SRW.
Russia’s 23/24 wheat harvest has begun, according to the Ministry of Agriculture Russia has harvested 2 MMT of grains through 6/28 - ahead of last year’s pace. The Russian Federation has planted 55.6m HA through 6/28, which is more area than last year but the planting pace as a percentage of expected area is inline with average.
Jul 23 CBOT Wheat closed at $6.53, down 2 3/4 cents,
Sep 23 CBOT Wheat closed at $6.67 1/2, down 2 1/4 cents,
Cash SRW Wheat was $6.08 3/8, down 1 5/8 cents,
Jul 23 KCBT Wheat closed at $7.94 1/4, down 6 1/2 cents,
Cash HRW Wheat was $7.52, down 7 3/8 cents,
Jul 23 MGEX Wheat closed at $8.07 1/2, up 3 3/4 cents,
On the date of publication, Alan Brugler did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
WHEAT FUTURE 1D reversal candle, support lev LONGHello fellow traders,
this idea is based on the support/resistance levels and candle formation. The price has bounced off the support level and reversal daily candle formed which suggest finally the trend is to change. The take profit at level of 700 being the psychological and resistance level tested previously. The trade is at 1:2 risk to reward ratio, always be prepared to close the trade not loosing too much and trade with rewards at least as high as reward never less :)
RE<MEMBER- This is just an idea not a trading advise!
Can we have an inverse shoulder?Key Takeaways
Wheat market is facing both bullish and bearish news, creating risks for traders and emphasizing the importance of risk management.
Hard red winter wheat crop is shorter than both USDA projections and trade expectations, but news of overpriced wheat in the US and milling wheat from Europe entering the market created bearish sentiment.
World markets, including weather conditions in key wheat-producing countries like Argentina, Australia, the US, Russia, and Canada, will play a crucial role in determining future wheat prices.
Wheat Long 1. Bullish engulfing initiates support
2. Bullish engulfing confirms support
3. Double bottom established
4. First target and double bottom measured move at 720
5. Second target at 800
Wheat Long1. Bullish engulfing initiates support
2. Bullish engulfing confirms support
3. Double bottom established
4. First target and double bottom measured move at 720
5. Second target at 800
Wheat (The revenge of the fallen!)
View On Wheat(16 May 2023)
Wheat is in
* Uptrend in short term (Intraweek)
* Uptrend in Mid term (Intramonth)
* Downtrend in Long term (Last 3 months)
We had a strong wake up call yesterday and it ends with bullish tones.
Now $640 region is acting as strong support and it can rise higher for now.
We shall see $700 region soon.
Let's see.
DYODD, all the best and read the disclaimer too.
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Thank You!
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WHEAT accumulation is ON... /\WHEAT is on accumulation mode at the moment. The prospect for a big price shift is very high from a weekly perspective.
A revisit to 1k levels is possible within the year.
SEEDED L at 674.0
TAYOR.
Upside in wheat possible - 4 bottomsQuadrupple bottom forming in wheat with a higher high in the short term momentum.
Note that testing horizontal support for 4th time is also a sign of weakness.
However, the new high wave suggests upside is possible.
Play your entry and stops wisely.
Wheat Price Might IncreaseWheat looks bullish from a support zone of 775; a bullish rejection of the current candle in the area marked 5 will give a potential rise up to 784 for a bias of 788.66.
Descending Triangle Setup on Wheat, Target at 525Overview
The main view of this trade idea is on the Daily Chart.
The commodity Wheat is in a descending triangle setup, with the resistance trend line at lower highs of 949.08 and 798.34. These lower highs occurred on 10th October 2022 and 30th December 2022 respectively. The support line is observed around the 730 price level. Expectations are for the support at the 730 price level to break and the commodity will decline towards 525. A negation of this view will result in Wheat rallying above 800.
Technical Indicators
Some technical indicators corroborate the chart pattern setup. The Supertrend indicator is in a sell mode and the Awesome Oscillator is below 0 and Red, indicating a downward trend. The RSI for the commodity is also below 50.
The intra-day trend following indicators of Wheat also show downtrends in the 15-Min, 2-Hr, 4-Hr and Daily timeframes. Short term resistance is observed around the 730-770 price range.
The longer-term view also show Wheat in a downtrend. It broke below trend in late June 2022 and has been below trend ever since. Indication of a downtrend has been utilized using the 28-Week Simple Moving Average. A change in the long term trend would occur, at the time of writing, with a weekly close above 805.
Recommendation
The recommendation will be to go short at market, with a stop loss at 800 and a target of 525. This produces a risk/reward ratio of 2.97.
Disclaimer
The views expressed are mine and do not represent the views of my employers and business partners. Persons acting on these recommendations are doing so at their own risk. These recommendations are not a solicitation to buy or to sell but are for purely discussion purposes.
At the time of writing, I have exposure to Wheat.
Wheat With Another Rejection At Support LevelThere was inside bar price action on Wheat in the last 2 trading days at the support level. Will this cause more buyers into wheat?
N.B
- Let emotions and sentiments work for you
-ALWAYS Use Proper Risk Management In Your Trades
Wheat price attempts to recover – AnalysisWheat price decline stopped around 740.00 areas, to start rising and hint heading to achieve expected gains in the upcoming sessions, on its way to visit 778.10 mainly.
Therefore, the bullish bias will be suggested for today, and breaching 758.50 will ease the mission of achieving the mentioned target, while breaking 745.00 will stop the expected rise and press on the price to resume the bearish track.
$914 is the next destination!After a 3drive in the daily TF and reaching the origin of the upward movement, there is an expectation of a rise to the $914 zone. Before that, $883 will appear as an important resistance.
So don't forget position management...
Base drop base - what's next?I think the price is in a zigzag pattern, and the next wave will be another drop. Bullish, than bearis
Wheat crisis solved?I'm not reading too much about the politics, but the price suggest for me that the mini wheat crisis is solved. More possible drop in the cards.
Wheat to continue sideways but in a broader rangeOn Monday, Ukraine struck several Russian ships-turned-submarines, Russia wanted to withdraw from its grain corridor agreement. Earlier today, Turkey has re-emphasized that corridor will remain in place. Both news had major impact easily seen in the Wheat futures charts.
I think it will calm for a few weeks ahead now. Random unscheduled news are more likely to be bulish though. Another clue to where the price will go over the coming weeks is in the further-away contracts prices, specifically ZW3 trades roughly 20 dollars above ZW1. As the rollover time approaches, the prices are likely to converge which is bullish for current contracts.
In my opinion, the market will remember today and will not go below $822 as it was just reminded of the risks. This means that I am looking for speculative longs near the bottom - that will possible be hit during another market-wide high-volatility news, FED press conference later today.
Wheat - ZW | Long IdeaHere I lay out my trade idea for Wheat.
Given Global Macro events, technical patterns and indicators, I see a long here.
3:1 RR
1% Risked.
Let's see where this goes!
Wheat, why this last raising?My backtests, September and October are not good months for long swing trading, but Im finding some reason from last WASDE reports
*****************September release on wheat
– U.S. wheat outlook for supply and use is unchanged this month
– Global wheat outlook raises supplies, consumption, exports, and ending stocks this month, as production increases for Russia and Ukraine, more than offset a decline in beginning stocks. Area harvested, yield, and production for Russia will all reach record highs . The Ukraine production forecast is increased as higher yields in the Forest and Forest-Steppe zones
******************October release on wheat
***US***
- The outlook for 2022/23 U.S. wheat this month is for lower supplies , domestic use, exports, and stocks.
Supplies are reduced on lower 2022/23 production.
Reductions in both harvested area and yield.
Production only minimally higher than last year
Partially offsetting the production decline are higher projected imports. This would be the lowest U.S. wheat exports since 1971/72
Projected ending stocks are lowered
***WORLD***
The global wheat outlook for 2022/23 wheat is for reduced supplies , consumption, trade, and stocks.
reduced production for the United States and Argentina more than offsetting higher EU production although world production remains at a record
Global consumption is reduced on lower food, seed, and industrial use more than offsetting higher feed and residual use.
World trade is lowered on reduced exports by the United States and Argentina more than offsetting higher EU exports.
Projected 2022/23 ending stocks are lowered mostly on a reduction for the United States.
Chainsaw on the wheatNot so nice and jolting "pumps" on the chart of wheat. It means that all of these assymetrical, not impulsive price pumps have corrective role. Obvious, because all of these are moving in one nice and clear corrective channel. I'm waiting for the last HH. Bullish, than bearish
Wheat Rally back on with Russian AnnexWheat surged $60 last night as Russia annouced votes in the local donbas regions they control in Ukraine. Critical to the wheat exports the port in that area also means perhaps sanctions and increased fighting may hurt global supply already under pressure.
Adding to momentum is global headline news about beer shortages which adds to the grain rally.
As long as these issues persist Wheat may trade aggressively higher as commodites move alot more sharply with the start of the war brining highs of $1300.
Wheat - bet on harvest surprises?Technicals: After large rally in the beginning of the year followed by similar drop over the past months, Wheat has been consolidating in 750-850 range. From the technical perspective, I am missing a convincing rejection of the lower lows before a rally can take place. However if the fundamentals were strong enough, they would subsidize for such price action.
Fundamentals & seasonality:
→ Wheat is known to drop in August and September in anticipation of harvest. This is exactly what has been happening, but the markets are likely to either calm down and wait for harvest numbers, or will turn back into rally if the numbers are back. For the moment, the future contracts are priced slightly higher than the present ones which means the market anticipated risk and price growth in the future.
→ A lot of high-yielding regions of Ukraine are either occupied or under siege. Also, the logistics is disrupted in the region.
→ Fertilizer prices are an issue.
Catalysts: It will all come down to harvest. Price can go nuclear or it can continue sideways.
I am personally looking to get a long position somewhere after a technical setup arises - either a strong rejection of the lows, or reasonably strong breakout of the consolidation range high.
