Sideways Consolidation & Breakout Strategy
📌 Key Observations:**
- **Sideways Market:** Price is consolidating between **561.43 (support)** and **585.96 (resistance)**.
- **Bullish Momentum Indicators:**
- **RSI Divergence:** Bullish signal indicating potential upside.
- **MACD Crossover:** Suggests an uptrend could gain strength.
- **Volume Profile:** High volume resistance around **607.20**.
#### **🎯 Short-Term Targets (If Price Remains in Range):**
1️⃣ **568.67 - 569.22** → First minor resistance (watch for rejection).
2️⃣ **573.75 - 585.96** → Major range resistance.
#### **🚀 Breakout Scenario (If Price Breaks Above 585.96):**
- **Next Targets:**
- **607.20** → Strong liquidity level.
- **621.15** → Major resistance & profit-taking zone.
#### **🔹 Trade Considerations:**
- **Entry:** Inside consolidation, targeting minor resistance levels.
- **Breakout Entry:** After strong close above **585.96**.
- **Stop-Loss (SL):** Below **561.43** to manage risk.
Would you like a trailing stop strategy to **lock in profits**? 🚀 (**Not Financial Advice**)
WHEATUSD trade ideas
Global Wheat Market: February 2025 WASDE Report Insights (02.11)The February 2025 WASDE report presents updates on the global wheat market, reflecting shifts in production, trade, and pricing trends. The U.S. wheat outlook for 2024/25 shows a slight increase in domestic use, leading to reduced ending stocks. Food use has been raised by 4 million bushels to 970 million, driven by a 2% increase in wheat flour grind in the October-December quarter. However, projected ending stocks have been lowered to 794 million bushels, though still 14% higher than the previous year. The season-average farm price remains unchanged at $5.55 per bushel.
Global Supply and Trade Overview
The global wheat supply for 2024/25 has increased slightly by 0.6 million metric tons, reaching 1,061.3 million tons. This adjustment is primarily due to higher production estimates in Kazakhstan and Argentina. However, global trade is expected to decline by 3 million metric tons to 209 million, with significant reductions in exports from the European Union, Mexico, Russia, Turkey, and Ukraine. Notably, China’s wheat imports have been cut by 2.5 million tons to 8.0 million, marking the lowest level in five years. Last year, China was the leading global wheat importer, with 13.6 million tons.
Demand and Consumption Trends
Global wheat consumption is projected to rise by 1.8 million metric tons to 803.7 million. This increase is largely driven by higher feed and residual use in the EU, Kazakhstan, Thailand, and Ukraine. Strong demand from China and Turkey continues to influence the global wheat market, as both countries increase their wheat imports to offset domestic shortages and meet rising consumption needs.
Price and Market Implications
With tighter supplies and a reduction in global stocks to 257.6 million metric tons, wheat prices are expected to remain firm in 2025. Currency fluctuations, particularly a weaker U.S. dollar, could enhance the competitiveness of American wheat exports. However, intense competition from Russia and other major producers continues to limit the U.S. share in global trade. Additionally, ongoing climatic uncertainties, such as droughts and heatwaves, pose risks to future wheat yields, potentially exacerbating supply constraints.
Investment Opportunities and Risks
The wheat market presents both opportunities and challenges in 2025. Futures contracts may remain volatile, offering potential gains for short-term traders. Agricultural technology companies focusing on drought-resistant wheat varieties and precision farming techniques could benefit from the ongoing push for efficiency in wheat production. Furthermore, investors may consider diversifying into agriculture-related exchange-traded funds (ETFs) or stocks linked to the wheat supply chain, such as fertilizer companies, machinery manufacturers, and logistics providers.
As the global wheat market continues to evolve, staying informed about production trends, trade policies, and price movements is still important for market participants. Understanding these factors can help investors navigate potential risks and capitalize on emerging opportunities in this essential commodity sector.
CBOT:ZW1!
Wheat Uptrend Intact: Buy Opportunity on RetracementWheat prices are in a bullish trend, consistently forming higher highs with no signs of divergence. A potential retracement after the latest high may present a strong buying opportunity. As the uptrend is expected to continue, it is advisable to safeguard the previous higher low.
Wheat - Tariffs will move the prices in our favor!Hi guys, we are going to take a look into Wheat.
Currently as shown on the added picture we can see that Mexico and Canada are quite big importers of Wheat in the U.S. with the tariffs coming from the U.S. and respectfully from Canada and Mexico we should see a decent surge in the prices of wheat, we are keeping it simple towards the Supply and Demand rule about commodities.
Entry: 567
Target 600
As always my friends happy trading!
P.S. If you have questions or inquiries about one of my existing set-ups or personal questions / 1 on 1 sessions consider joining my community so you can follow up with me in private!
Wheat Market Dynamics: Global Supply and Trade TrendsAs 2025 unfolds, the global wheat market is experiencing significant shifts driven by supply chain disruptions, changing trade flows, and climatic challenges. According to the January 2025 WASDE report, global wheat production and trade are adjusting to new realities, with the United States, Russia, and Ukraine playing pivotal roles in determining supply and price movements.
Global Supply and Production Overview
Global wheat production for 2024/25 is revised downward due to a combination of lower yields in key regions and reduced acreage. Notably, U.S. Production- ending stocks are forecast to rise due to reduced exports, signaling domestic surplus but limited international competitiveness. Persistent drought conditions in key wheat-growing states have further constrained yields. Russia and Ukraine issues keep Geopolitical tensions and logistical challenges continue to disrupt wheat exports. The Black Sea corridor remains volatile, affecting the timely shipment of grain to global markets. About other Major Producers, Countries like Canada and Australia have reported mixed results, with droughts in parts of their growing regions offset by favorable conditions elsewhere.
Trade and Export Dynamics
Global wheat trade is expected to decrease in 2025 due to a pullback in exports from the Black Sea region. Despite being the world’s largest wheat exporter, Russia is scaling back shipments due to domestic policy measures, prioritizing food security, and a weaker ruble, which complicates trade logistics. Continued geopolitical instability in Ukraine has limited export capacity, with disruptions in rail and port infrastructure, reducing overall supply to key markets. American wheat faces stiff competition from lower-priced Russian grain, reducing its share in global trade. The WASDE report projects U.S. exports to decline to 19 million metric tons, a significant drop year-over-year.
Demand Trends
On the demand side, China and Turkey have emerged as key buyers, with both increasing wheat imports due to domestic shortages and growing consumption. Wheat demand in North Africa and the Middle East remains robust, driven by population growth and food security concerns. The use of wheat in animal feed and industrial use is expected to decline marginally as corn becomes more cost-competitive in some markets.
Price Outlook
Wheat prices are projected to remain elevated in 2025 by a few important reasons. Tighter supplies, reduced global stocks and slower trade volumes are contributing to higher prices. Currency effects, a weaker U.S. dollar, could bolster demand for American wheat, though competition remains intense. Weather Risks, such as ongoing climatic uncertainties, including droughts and heatwaves, pose risks to future crop yields, potentially exacerbating supply constraints.
Investment Implications
For traders and investors, the wheat market offers both opportunities and risks in 2025. First one is Futures Trading. Elevated prices and volatility make wheat futures an attractive option for short-term speculation or hedging strategies. Second point is Agri-Tech Investments. Companies developing drought-resistant wheat varieties and precision farming technologies could benefit from heightened demand. And the last one is Diversification: investors may consider diversifying into agriculture-focused ETFs or stocks with exposure to the wheat supply chain, such as fertilizers, machinery, and logistics providers.
Conclusion
The wheat market in 2025 is a dynamic landscape “run” by geopolitical, economic, and climatic factors. For investors, understanding these trends is pretty important to navigating opportunities in this essential commodity area. By closely monitoring supply disruptions, trade policies, and price movements, market participants can position themselves to capitalize on emerging trends.
"WHEAT" Commodity CFD Market Bullish Heist Plan🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo!🌟
Dear Money Makers & Robbers, 🤑 💰
Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the "WHEAT" Commodity CFD market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes long entry. Our aim is the high-risk Red Zone. Risky level, overbought market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bearish robbers are stronger. Be wealthy and safe trade.💪🏆🎉
Entry 📈 : Traders & Thieves with New Entry A bull trade can be initiated at any price level.
however I advise placing Buy limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe. Entry from the most recent or closest low or high level should be in retest.
Stop Loss 🛑: Using the 4H period, the recent / nearest low or high level.
Target 🎯: 5.700 (or) Escape Before the Target
Scalpers, take note 👀 : only scalp on the Long side. If you have a lot of money, you can go straight away; if not, you can join swing traders and carry out the robbery plan. Use trailing SL to safeguard your money 💰.
Fundamental Outlook 📰🗞️
Based on the current market situation and fundamental analysis, the outlook for Wheat is bullish in the short term. Prices are expected to continue rising due to supply and demand imbalances, weather-related issues, and geopolitical tensions. However, traders should be cautious of potential price volatility and keep a close eye on upcoming events that may impact wheat prices.
CURRENT FUNDAMENTALS:
Supply and Demand: The global wheat supply is currently outpacing demand, which has put downward pressure on prices. The International Grains Council (IGC) estimates that global wheat production will reach 765 million tons in 2023, up from 758 million tons in 2022.
Weather Conditions: Weather conditions in major wheat-producing countries such as the United States, Russia, and Ukraine have been favorable, which has supported wheat yields and production.
Government Policies: The US government's trade policies, including tariffs on Chinese goods, have impacted the wheat market. The US is a major wheat exporter, and trade tensions have reduced demand for US wheat.
Competition from Other Grains: Wheat is competing with other grains such as corn and soybeans for market share. The price of corn and soybeans has been relatively high, which has made wheat less attractive to buyers.
BULLISH SENTIMENT:
Weather Risks: 20% of traders and investors believe that adverse weather conditions in major wheat-producing countries could reduce wheat yields and production, which could support prices.
Trade Deals: 15% of traders and investors believe that a resolution to the US-China trade dispute could increase demand for US wheat and support prices.
Strong Demand from Importers: 10% of traders and investors believe that strong demand from importers such as Egypt and Turkey could support prices.
Trading Alert⚠️ : News Releases and Position Management 📰 🗞️ 🚫🚏
As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions,
we recommend the following:
Avoid taking new trades during news releases
Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits
Please note that this is a general analysis and not personalized investment advice. It's essential to consider your own risk tolerance and market analysis before making any investment decisions.
Keep in mind that these factors can change rapidly, and it's essential to stay up-to-date with market developments and adjust your analysis accordingly.
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Wheat could be up by at least 7% in the next few daysWheat with little resistance in the zone between 590 and 632 will likely rise 7%.
Any escalation in Ukraine and maintained demand in Egypt will drive the demand up against supply.
This will add an inflationary pressure on most markets and might be an uncontrolled pressure on the USD amongst many others,
BUY!
GBP/CHF Short and WHEAT/USD ShortGBP/CHF Short
Minimum entry requirements:
• Tap into area of value.
• 1H impulse down below area of value.
• If 2 touch 15 min continuation, 5 min risk entry within it, or reduced risk entry on the break of it.
WHEAT/USD Short
Minimum entry requirements:
• Tap into area of value.
• 1H impulse down below area of value.
• If 2 touch 5 min continuation, reduced risk entry on the break of it.
• If 2 touch 15 min continuation, 5 min risk entry within it, or reduced risk entry on the break of it.
GBP/CHF Short and WHEAT/USD ShortGBP/CHF Short
Minimum entry requirements:
• Tap into area of value.
• 1H impulse down below area of value.
• If 2 touch 15 min continuation, 5 min risk entry within it, or reduced risk entry on the break of it.
WHEAT/USD Short
Minimum entry requirements:
• 1H impulse down below most recent low.
• If 2 touch 5 min continuation, reduced risk entry on the break of it.
• If 2 touch 15 min continuation, 5 min risk entry within it, or reduced risk entry on the break of it.
WHEATS ON A RUNPART OF THE PLAN
price
action
resistance
trapped
order blok
fairvaluegap
touch of fibwedge LEV 2
hammer
engulfing candle stick pattern
price action
leverage
accumalation
negotiate is the exit
I want to show everyone that making money is easy but bring profitable constantly throught out each trade u got to understand the full phrase and the physco logic behind this PHRASE
if u can put this all in one u wouldn't loose a trade and you would know wen to get in the market at any pregiven time
this is my 1st photo publish
WheatUSD Oanda Buying Breakout Trend ContinuesRealising my folly from my previous trade, I recognised my faults.
Recap -
1st - I traded with the Higher Time Frame and Entry Time Frame Trends, but I am actually entering on a opposing trend against the Lower Time Frame, and that is why the price never move in my intended direction after hours.
The opposing trend movement is also a sign that price is tanking, and that the Big Boys might not be into this product anymore.
2nd - Trade Breakout Trends was my thang. But I subconsciously/consciously shifted my setups to Trend Following which is to buy high and sell higher. Low winrate, needs to gather a ton of trades before the results show, stressful way to trade. I recognised my fault and now I shifted myself back to Breakout Trends.
I would like to add on also that, I would see this as a price game instead of a time frame game. But I also recognise that 50/60MA on the 15Minutes Time Frame is very powerful, and I called it Duck Hunting and I would be hunting ducks again, on the 15 Minutes Time Frame.
Would I trade on the 4H Time Frame or the Hourly? It's a price game so as long as the price is right, and it aligns with my point 1 and 2, I would.
2019SGT
22052024
Wheat: double-top then back to fundamentals or La Nina concerns?Wheat has completed five Elliot waves up and with bearish fundamentals on the ground remaining, an ABC correction may now be in order.
If the rally has in fact exhausted itself, then a double-top which has often followed wheat rallies would not be unusual here. The conditions for another bounce off shorter time frame averages to yesterday's highs to form that double-top appear to be in play.
However, if La Nina worries persist, then the market may stabilize as it meets the rising 20 day MA and new highs could be in play. The Golden Cross about to be formed by the daily 50MA crossing up over the 200MA would give these climate/weather concerns form.
Not financial advice and you trade at your own risk.
Wheat: Megaphone down wave vs impending Golden CrossOn wheat's daily chart, the rally appears to have completed 5 Elliot waves up. Bearish fundamentals of current ample supply may now play out in an ABC correction, though how deep with a La Nina expected to affect Russia it remains to be seen.
Beyond an ABC correction, it's possible to consider that said bearish fundamentals may see an impulse all the way down to the lower megaphone structure line. The problem with this scenario is the time it would take to get down there. If La Nina is to play a part this Northern hemisphere growing season, then it's affects on the market will be felt sooner.
The probability a drop that significant may be further weakened by the impending Golden Cross of the daily 50MA crossing up over the 200MA. TA indicators like this may not yet reflect bearish current fundamentals of supply, but make sense in terms of the pricing in of a La Nina event.
Not financial advice; trade at your own risk.
Wheat in Elliot Waves pt.2: Fifth wave completed?Wheat saw another bullish end to the week after a favorable USDA report.
In the last post, we looked in TA terms at whether the current rally's first impulse occurred in March or on April 19th. The latter (in pink numbers) seems to have been the case as we saw the 5th wave up to near the 2.618 Fib. If this analysis continues to hold true, TA wise an ABC correction down may soon occur. This correction should also reflect the current supply side bearish fundamentals of the grain and it will be interesting to see how deep it goes. However, if the ABC down is somewhat shallow, this could suggest the continued accumulation of a bullish trend, with adverse weather and or climate anomalies the main concern going forwards.
Another reason to suspect this coming correction may be shallow is the now imminent Golden Cross of the daily 50MA in orange and 200MA in white. While events like the crossing of moving averages are not certain things, they do indicate trend direction and are worth considering here. Remember though, that supply fundamentals remain currently bearish and a correction will have to reflect that at some stage.
In terms of those weather/climate concerns, market analysts (link below) have identified that the expected return of the La Nina weather system in the coming months historically means drought in Russia, the largest producer. This in turn may significantly reduce yield in Russia and affect global prices. This demonstrates the fickle and thus volatile nature of grains, as the same analysts were pointing out in early March how Russian oversupply, some of it stolen from Ukraine, was continuing to strangle the market. Furthermore, it should not be forgotten that this will be a climate change La Nina, meaning it may prove unpredictable and thus volatile on markets.
www.grainbrokers.com.au
Not financial advice and you trade at your own risk.