WHEAT longCommodity market long therm looks like bulls want to take control, moreover commodities are the best performer out of different asset classes during rising inflation period. On WHEAT I will be waiting for pullback, and then next cycle to the upside targeting upper descending resistance line, looking for the same pattern as in SOYBEAN.
WHEATUSD trade ideas
# CFD WHEATUSD Rising WEDGE Pending sell option#WHEATUSD is in a consolidation pattern as a rising wedge in case of the loss of upside momentum can give the pattern a bearish bias and the final break of the support indicates that the forces of supply have finally won out and prices are likely to be lower!
Let's see how it goes!
Good Luck............
WHEAT - D - LONGReason for long : I'm pulling the trigger a bit fast on this one, as we don't have yet confirmation of end of consolidation on weekly TF. However, as I'm embarassed to miss the natgas rally (this is one of my favorite asset and I have waited weeks for this to finally miss it because of external factors). I believe raw materials are in for a good year in 2018 as cyclical this market can get. I'm not too much into GOLD/SILVER right now and wait for correction. But WHEAT is also tanking a lot since weeks and altough we made some pips weeks ago on false breakout, this was not convincing.
This time may be the same... or not.
Trade with your own diligence.
Find a setupHi,
this is a setup for a long or a short position with the same key point.
After the big seasonally short ther is a new opportunity to go long (setup is in the chart) if the red line will hold that means imo that oil will go to 54/56.
If this setup will fail there is a possibility , maybe more interesting, of a fall to main support as is more likely to have during this season.
Wheat Short Position Initiated on Daily ChartWe initiated a short position on wheat futures through OANDA platform on daily chart, based on constructive price action pattern and some fundamental indications that the extreme cautions about the 2017 wheat production are way too exaggerated. As the summer progress we see increasing downside pressure and possible good profit opportunity. Our Reward/Risk is 1, although we expect further downside potential and may join the trend in a later point again. A contango situation when the short position pay off just for holding it is also present that additionally favor keeping this position for longer.
Wheat H1 EW AnalysisIn the Wheat M60 chart we see some 5 wave formation. We are on the way to finish the 3. wave. The subwave 4 is build in the next few h. and we have a chance to trade the correction after subwave 5 to create wave 4. We see the fibo time level 0.618 -1.618. In that area the market has to drop back. If the market do we have a nice entry
WHEAT - Daily - Wonderful.This is just a wonderful commodity to trade. If there were no broker swaps (holding costs) in this, then it would be even better.
We had some good selling and now we might recover a bit of that.
We are approaching some key levels right now and this could just play out nicely.
The level that I'm watching is 4.15 and then higher. If we close above 4.15 strongly, then the next one watch out for will be 4.30 (23.6%).
But the 4.15 level is also a strong potential resistance level, because we have the trend line running there, which will be tested underneath and we have the 20 SMA of the Bollinger Band.
At this point in time, I would say it's a BUY, to capture a few pips. Once you're in profit, then move you SL just above the entry price, in case it will decide to reverse quickly.
Happy trading and keep your eyes on the price action!
WHEAT - The start of a new bull marketI would like to show a longer term view in wheat on the weekly chart.
These kind of setups are rare opportunities. I think in 2016 November we printed the bottom of the multi year bear market.
The previous bull market peaked in 2012 summer. After that date wheat started a multi year decline.
I highlighted by red boxes the yearly cycles. In wheat the yearly cycles are 49-66 weeks long.
In a bear market we are printing lower yearly cycle lows and lower yearly cycles highs. If you check this weekly chart it's obvious we had a clear bear market in the last 5 years. But...
There was a change a few weeks ago. The actual yearly cycle peaked higher (5.55) at the beginning of July than the previous yearly cycle high in 2016 June (5.22)... That's a very important character change. This is how the bear market ends and the bull market starts...
Based on this my previous call is possible a bit early... The perfect entry will be most probably next week. The weekly RSI should get more oversold .
If I'm right price will not get below 3.67$ in the following few years...
I still see there is a possibility price is breaking below marginally 3,9$. But as we are printing a yearly cycle low in the following weeks I want to be in a starting position as a rally out of this low will be V-shaped .