Tariff news push down market, V sharp recovery still possibleDisclaimer: The following reflects personal opinions only and does not constitute investment advice. Please exercise your own judgment before making any decisions.
From Monday to Wednesday this week, the Nasdaq experienced a notable rebound, briefly climbing to 19,898 prior to the release of tariff-related news. However, the actual tariff figures and calculation methods far exceeded market expectations, causing a sharp sell-off once the announcement was made. On Friday, markets dropped further after China, the EU, and other countries announced retaliatory tariff measures. The VIX surged to 45.61 on Friday.
On Friday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell commented that the Fed remains in a wait-and-see mode regarding the future of tariffs. He noted that while tariffs could have short-term inflationary effects, current data shows inflation has significantly declined and the underlying U.S. economy remains strong. While this provided some support to the market, it was not enough to spark a meaningful rebound.
Key market concerns include:
1. Higher tariffs could lead to rising inflation, potentially delaying Fed rate cuts.
3. Tariff hikes and retaliatory measures may negatively impact multinational companies such as Apple and Nike that rely heavily on global markets and supply chains, resulting in lower revenues and increased operational costs.
3. Escalation of the trade war and more retaliatory measures may further dampen sentiment.
In the week ahead, markets will likely remain sensitive to policy developments.
A. If the Trump administration manages to reach agreements with certain countries to lower tariffs in exchange for concessions. Market sentiment could shift quickly, with investors viewing the tariff hike as a negotiation tactic with only short-term implications. - Vshape recovery
B. On the other hand, if the trade war continues to escalate, it would pose a clear negative for the markets.
Another potential headwind is the threat of U.S.-Iran conflict.
The Trump administration has repeatedly warned of possible military action against Iran. If such a conflict breaks out, markets may fear that Iran could block oil and gas shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, pushing up energy prices and triggering a broad risk-off move.
From a technical perspective, the market has broken below the upward trendline that has been in place since 2022, and continued to decline after retesting that level this week. Without a swift rebound, further downside is possible. Key support levels to watch are 16,962, 16,127, and 15,163.
That said, the tariff news has been priced in to some extent, and the VIX has already spiked above 45. The U.S. economy remains fundamentally solid, making it difficult for bearish sentiment to persist over the long term. Given Trump's negotiating style, some positive developments on tariffs are likely in the coming weeks. Meanwhile, the Fed has further reduced its balance sheet runoff in April, with QT now nearing its end.
In my view, short-term bearish sentiment may be near a turning point. There is a high probability of a rebound, but it’s essential to wait for further confirmation — either for negative news to subside or for a technical rebound signal to emerge.
At current levels, shorting the market carries high risk. Unless new negative catalysts or fundamental deterioration arise, I personally would not consider initiating short positions at this time.
