SPXNAS100AAPLNVDA Howard Marks' latest memo – Nobody Knows (Yet Again) – explains why he buys stocks.
After Lehman’s collapse in 2008, fear gripped the markets. Financial institutions seemed poised to fall “like dominoes,” and a downward spiral had begun. In my memo Nobody Knows, I acknowledged that “there was nothing anyone could say they ‘knew,’ and that included me.” But amid panic and discounted prices, I saw an opportunity.
I didn’t act with certainty — in fact, I consider “analyze the future” an oxymoron. Still, I believed we had to assume the spiral would eventually stop. The logical choice: start investing, including the $10 billion we had ready in Opportunities Fund VIIb, created for distressed debt.
History shows that “most of the time the world doesn’t end.” Waiting for certainty — “for the dust to settle” — often means missing the best bargains. As Walter Deemer put it, “When the Time Comes to Buy, You Won’t Want To.”
Prices had fallen not because assets were bad, but because fear was high. That’s when “the babies are thrown out with the bath water.” I wasn’t sure of the timing, but I believed deeply in value — and that value was finally back on sale. It wasn’t confidence in the future, but trust in logic and discipline that led me to buy.
NVIDIA BUYING REASONS (4/14/25) -Trump temporarily lifts tariff restrictions for chip and mobile companies -EXTREME FEAR. A super-mega reason to buy -Trump makes his friends make money while there’s fear, and then everything will be more expensive. He’s making everything crazy to gain attention. It’s not a real crisis. It’s just a show of power and taking advantage of fear to get his friends to buy. -Nvidia can quickly become the best company in the world. Currently the 3rd best. -It has corrected -40% and now shows signs of turning around. -They’re not going to sink that top company no matter what. The entire market and global economies will collapse first. +27% upside potential. -Current bullish trend within a bearish one and a huge long-term bullish one. -It’s been consolidating for a year. It’s time to rise at least to all-time highs. -Indexes are poised for a massive surge. -Trump won’t want the market to fall further. They wouldn’t vote for him. It’s not in his interest to see it fall further than it already has without a crisis. -Nvidia innovates, impeccable fundamentals. -Analyst rating: BUY. -There’s no semiconductor crisis or anything. -The government and all global companies are maximizing AI, and that benefits NVIDIA the most. -Deep Seek (competition) isn’t too worrying. -Good momentum! The other day it rose +18% thanks to Trump pausing tariffs for 90 days.
CONCLUSION: TIME TO GO SHOPPING TODAY! (not an investment advice) NDXSPXNVDA