USTECH100MINICFD trade ideas
NAS100USD: SMT Divergence Hints at Potential ReversalGreetings Traders,
In today’s analysis of NAS100USD, although the current market structure reflects bearish institutional order flow, there are growing signs that a potential reversal may be forming.
Key Observations:
1. Smart Money Technique (SMT) Divergence:
We are currently observing SMT divergence—a strategy where the underlying asset (NAS100) is compared against its benchmark (US500). These indices typically maintain a 90–100% correlation. However, when this correlation breaks down, it often signals that a reversal may be imminent. In this case, while NAS100 continues to show bearish momentum, the divergence from US500 suggests the possibility of bullish interest building.
2. Institutional Support at the Rejection Block:
Further confluence for a potential reversal lies in the presence of a rejection block acting as a strong institutional support level. This is a zone where smart money previously defended price, and if confirmed, it could provide an optimal entry for long positions.
Trading Plan:
We will monitor the rejection block for confirmation of bullish intent before entering any trades. If confirmed, the idea is to target the buy-side liquidity residing in premium pricing zones.
Invalidation Level : This reversal idea will be invalidated if NAS500 breaks below its most recent swing low.
Stay alert for confirmation, and always ensure the idea fits within your broader trading framework.
Kind regards,
The Architect
My NQ Long Idea 5/5/2025Been a while but I haven't been posting ideas because I have been scalping and doing smaller time frame trades. I think we have NQ at a nice price level where we might see a bull run soon with the market sentiment slowly "thawing" on the idea of "risk-off" sentiment to "risk-on" sentiment and environment with more uncertainties clearing out of the market scenes.
We have US trying to negotiate deals with many countries including China which is very challenging and we can never know if it will be achieved or not. However, from an economic point of view we can agree that the US economy is in the Neutral-bullish. We have a very bullish price action in the past week or so. We also have healthy economic numbers but it is still unclear until Wednesday.
On Wednesday the FED will speak on this matter and give us some clarity on whether it is a Risk-on or Risk-off environment. Anything will happen but I can see the "Gap" getting filled on FED day due to the SPIKE that will be delivered to us.
Currently Edgefinder tool is giving us 8 for NQ with only the GDP and sPMI scores in the negative. However the net score is bullish and on the positive.
I think 1 of those two ideas will be played out sooner or later anything can happen but from a technical view I would like to see the price reaching the 50% FIB and then take off from there.
It is subjective though and everything in trading is subjective including what I do and say.
NAS100 and the analysis that has reached a conclusion and has noToday I was reviewing my previous analyses when I came across this chart on NAS100 and after months of waiting, it had come to fruition.
It's a bit late to publish now, but I will gradually increase the number of symbols and arrange the time so that the results are available to everyone on time!!
Good luck!
MJ.REZAEI
NAS100 Rejected at Key Supply Zone | Pullback in Play?The NASDAQ 100 (NAS100) just tapped into a strong supply zone around 20,000 – 20,100 and is showing signs of rejection. Price is currently at 20,007, down -0.45%, and struggling to hold above the demand turned resistance.
Chart Highlights:
Supply Zone: 20,000 – 20,100 (visible rejection area).
Key Support Levels:
19,852 – immediate structure level.
18,846 – breakout origin, potential demand zone.
17,673 – major volume and demand cluster (orange zone).
Bearish Bias:
If price loses 19,852, we could see a drop toward 18,846.
Failure there opens the path for a deeper correction to 17,673, where buyers are likely to step in.
Bullish Trigger:
A clean break and close above 20,100 would flip the script and suggest continuation of the bullish rally.
Volatility Warning:
Upcoming U.S. economic data could cause sharp moves (see calendar icon on chart). Be cautious and reactive.
Trade Setup: Watch for short opportunities below 19,852 with stops above supply and targets near the marked supports.
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Is NAS100 gearing up for a dip or breaking out soon? Drop your forecast in the comments!
#NAS100 #NASDAQ #TechnicalAnalysis #SupplyAndDemand #VolumeProfile #LuxAlgo #PriceAction #IndicesTrading #USMarket #ForexSignals #SmartMoney
Technical Breakdown on US 100 | 1H TimeframeTechnical Breakdown on US100 1H Chart using Volume Profile, Gann, and CVD + ADX
1. Key Observations (Volume, Gann & CVD + ADX Focused)
a) Volume Profile Insights:
Value Area High (VAH): 20,035 (approx. from most recent high-volume node)
Value Area Low (VAL): 19,710
Point of Control (POC):
High-Volume Nodes: Clustered between 19,850 – 20,050 (heavy volume activity)
Low-Volume Gaps: Between 19,700 – 19,800 (could act as fast move zones)
b) Liquidity Zones:
Liquidity Pools:
Order Absorption: Observed near 19,850 (buy side absorption with wicks and CVD reaction)
c) Volume-Based Swing Highs/Lows:
Swing High: 20,035 with volume tapering and price exhaustion
Swing Low: 19,710 showing high delta rebound and large wick
d) CVD + ADX Indicator Analysis:
Trend Direction: Uptrend (price making HH/HL, supported by rising channel)
ADX Strength: ADX > 20, DI+ > DI- → Confirmed bullish trend
CVD Confirmation:
2. Support & Resistance Levels
a) Volume-Based Levels:
Support:
Resistance:
b) Gann-Based Levels:
Recent Swing Low: 19,710 (1/3 retracement zone)
Key Retracement Levels:
3. Chart Patterns & Market Structure
a) Trend: Bullish (confirmed by ADX > 20 and CVD rising)
b) Notable Patterns:
Bullish Ascending Channel clearly forming with higher lows
Price pulled back to mid-channel + POC confluence, showing signs of retest and continuation
No major bearish reversal patterns yet; healthy pullback structure
4. Trade Setup & Risk Management
a) Bullish Entry (CVD + ADX confirm uptrend):
Entry Zone: 19,850–19,875 (POC retest + trendline support)
Targets:
Stop-Loss (SL): 19,700 (below VAL and swing low)
RR: ~1:2.5
b) Bearish Entry (Only on breakdown):
Entry Zone: Below 19,700 (VAL loss + CVD breakdown)
Target: T1: 19,422.18 (previous POC support)
Stop-Loss (SL): 19,860 (back above trendline/POC)
RR: ~1:2
c) Position Sizing:
Risk only 1-2% of capital per trade for controlled exposure
Nas100 Buy Looking at the w1 chart we can spot out a strong pullback momentum which gave D1 TF a bullish bias and now on h4 price look to pullback towards an AOI for a bullish continuation. Fingers crossed
NASDAQ SELL?This is just a rough idea, I still need to wait and see where the market moves to and rejects from in order for TP and SL placement.
But, there is a Asian high, a London high and a NY high sitting closely together, causing what I call a liquidity pool, and we all know that liquidity moves the market. its like a magnet for the market.
so I'll be waiting and watching to see which session is swept and how the market reacts. But all in all, this is what i personally think Nasdaq will do
what are your thoughts? I would love to hear them.
I hope you all have a fantastic week and you rake in those profits.
God bless
J.D.L
NQ: Upcoming Weekly Analysis!FA Analysis:
1- Macro economic Indicators: Most data came red and few were inline confirming the slowing down of the economy.
2- Inflation data came better than expected.
3- Trump Tariffs: Strong rumors about deals underway from this week. The 90-day pause will become an indeterminate pause.
4- We have the FED this week. Nothing in terms of immediate rate cut, but the conference is very important for the looking forward.
5-ISM Services data is important.
From FA perspective, market is focusing on Tariffs deals. If it materializes, the ST outlook will change from Sell to Buy. MT and LT Outlook will stay Sell.
TA Analysis:
Weekly TF:
The weekly close was bullish and price retraced more than 61.8. This could be the end of this wave.
The FED and/or the tariff deals will give the signal for either the start of wave 3 or a continuation up. Until then, a consolidation is expected.
Daily TF:
Same as weekly... a bullish daily close. A consolidation is expected until the FED.
Happy and green week to Everyone!
US100 BEST PLACE TO SELL FROM|SHORT
US100 SIGNAL
Trade Direction: short
Entry Level: 20,101.6
Target Level: 18,779.9
Stop Loss: 20,975.6
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 12h
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
✅LIKE AND COMMENT MY IDEAS✅
NAS100 1WTake a look at this chart! After a solid uptrend, the price broke an important ascending trendline and corrected down to the 0.5 Fibonacci level — right where a key structural support zone is (that blue area near the bottom).
From there, we’ve seen a strong bounce back upward, and now the price has reached a critical zone:
Previous resistance
The 0.618 to 0.786 Fibonacci retracement area
And most importantly, a retest (pullback) to the broken trendline
There are two possible scenarios ahead:
1. If the price breaks and holds above this resistance zone, we might see the continuation of the bullish move.
2. But if it fails to break through, the market could enter another corrective phase.
Also, keep in mind that we have the interest rate decision this week. With Trump applying repeated pressure, there’s a chance rates might be cut — which could fuel a green, bullish market.
Bearish Look for potential Reversal bearish candlestick formation upon the retest of daily supply zone.
X2: NQ/US100/NAS100 Long - Day Trades 1:2X2:
Risking 1% to make 2%
NAS100, US100, NQ, NASDAQ Long for day trade, with my back testing of this strategy, it hits multiple possible take profits, manage your position accordingly.
Risking 1% to make 2%
Use proper risk management
Looks like good trade.
Lets monitor.
Use proper risk management.
Disclaimer: only idea, not advice
Nasdaq LongsThe setup is self explanatory. If price is to retrace to the marked levels I will take longs, The details are in the charts...If price does not retrace, I will improvise
Nasdaq LongsShould price retrace to that IFVG level, I will look for a sell side liquidity sweep and go long.
Descending Triangle Formation with Bullish Breakout Potential The NASDAQ (US100) is currently forming a descending triangle pattern with a clear A-B-C-D-E wave structure, signaling price compression and consolidation.
🔍 Key Insights:
The previous move was strongly bullish, increasing the probability of a continuation after consolidation.
A potential breakout above the descending trendline (blue resistance) could trigger a sharp upward move.
Target zones:
✅ First target: 20,060.6
✅ Second target: 20,573.9
Key support zone: 19,524.7 – this area acted as a launchpad for the previous bullish impulse and confirms the base of the triangle.
🧠 Suggested Strategy:
Wait for a confirmed breakout with volume. Look for entries on a pullback toward the 19,811.1 zone – ideally with a bullish continuation candle.
📊 Additional Context:
These types of consolidation patterns often lead to explosive moves. Patience and risk management will be crucial here.
NQ: NFP day!Good day!
Yesterday candle was bearish, Is it the end of the upper move?
All will depend on today's data and rumors from WH.
1- Undershoot data: Very bad for equities and NQ starts its Wave 3. But keep in mind, an undershoot also means FED will cut and free money will be on the table which is positive equities.
2- Inline: Bad for equities as FED rate cut and free money chances will decrease. In this case, price might continue its consolidation.
3- Overshoot: Good for equities and NQ might reach 21000. In this scenario, Fed rate cut will be out from June meeting.
Regarding WH rumors, it seems tariffs deals are imminent or underway. I already mentioned here few times that the 90-day pause will become an eternity pause. This seems a major change. But in my view it won't be a sustainable or durable change as all countries lost confidence in US.
Until the rumor becomes a fact, I maintain the same plan for ST/MT/LT: Sell.
GL!
NAS - Move to the downsideTechnicals, trend and price-action is hinting towards a drop on NAS, that needs to respect 19478. I'm earmarking a 'loaded' push from there to 19571 and then conclude for the week.
Happy trading!
US100US100 has shown great strength after terrif news.
If we look at the bigger picture, recent bullish rally looks like a pull back. Currently it is heading towards very important region , 20500 which is also the 61% retracement level.
If the price close above 20500 then we can consider it a new bullish rally.
NAS100... 4h chat pattern Your NAS100 (Nasdaq-100 index) *sell setup* looks like this:
* *Entry (Sell):* 1983
* *1st Target (TP1):* 1845
* *2nd Target (TP2):* 1800
This is a *bearish trade, targeting a roughly **138-point* drop for TP1 and *183-point* drop for TP2.
To evaluate this trade, consider the following:
### 1. *Technical Context*
* Is there a *resistance level* or *reversal pattern* around 1983?
* Are *momentum indicators* like RSI or MACD showing bearish divergence?
* What does the *volume* say — decreasing on up moves, increasing on down moves?
### 2. *Risk Management*
* Where is your *stop loss*? (This is critical to protect against a reversal.)
* What's the *risk-to-reward ratio*? Ideally, aim for 1:2 or better.
* Are you risking a fixed % of your capital (e.g., 1–2%)
NAS100USD: Price Respects Bearish Structure at 62% FibGreetings Traders,
In today’s analysis on NAS100USD, we observe sustained bearish institutional order flow, and we aim to align with this directional bias by identifying high-probability selling opportunities.
KEY OBSERVATIONS:
1. Retracement into Premium Resistance:
Price has recently retraced into premium pricing levels, reaching the 62% Fibonacci retracement zone—a level that often acts as dynamic resistance. This retracement also aligned with a bearish breaker block, confirming institutional resistance at that level. The market has since shown signs of rejection, reinforcing the bearish narrative.
2. Emergence of Fair Value Gap (FVG) as a Key Resistance Array:
Following the rejection, a new FVG has formed, acting as a potential short-term resistance zone. This area provides a refined point of interest where institutions may look to re-engage in selling activity. The alignment of the FVG with previous resistance adds further confluence to the bearish setup.
TRADING PLAN:
We will monitor the newly formed FVG zone for signs of bearish confirmation. Upon confirmation, the plan is to execute short positions targeting liquidity pools in discounted price zones, in line with institutional price delivery patterns.
Remain focused, wait for confirmation, and make sure this idea aligns with your overall trading plan.
Kind Regards,
The Architect
NASDAQ Buy idea🔸 Structure Breakout → Pullback → Consolidation beneath resistance
🔸 Support Zone Multiple rejections from 19,370–19,385 demand zone
🔸 Liquidity Stops likely resting above 19,420 → potential fuel for breakout move
🔸 Candle Behavior Strong rejection candles from demand zone + no bearish follow-through
🔸 Momentum Price failing to make lower lows → bullish pressure building
NAS100 Breakdown Watch: Bearish Structure Forms Below Key Highs1. Key Levels
Yesterday’s High: 20,037.0
Yesterday’s Low: 19,658.8
Today’s High (so far): 19,912.4
Current Price: 19,844.4
Price is currently trading below today’s high and below yesterday’s high, but still well above yesterday’s low.
2. Structure & Market Flow
The BoS/ChoCh (Break of Structure / Change of Character) indicator marks:
Multiple BoS (green) up to the April 30th peak, showing bullish structure.
A ChoCh (red) occurred just after the top on April 30, followed by more ChoCh signals, indicating potential short-term bearish momentum.
Most recent price action shows consolidation between 19,840–19,912, forming a range after rejecting near today's high.
3. Moving Averages (3EMA)
Blue Line (Short EMA - 20): 19,843.0
Purple Line (Mid EMA - 50): 19,840.3
Price is slightly above both the 20 and 50 EMA, which are now flattening — suggesting neutral momentum with no strong trend currently in place.
4. Market Context / Price Action
The sharp rejection at 20,037 (yesterday's high) indicates supply pressure.
Price wicked above today’s high before dropping below both EMAs.
Price bounced around the 50 EMA and appears to be forming lower highs, showing bearish microstructure.
Current structure looks like a potential distribution pattern.
5. Trade Ideas (Scenarios)
A. Bearish Bias (High Probability if 19,840 breaks cleanly)
Entry: Break and close below 19,840 with volume confirmation.
TP1: 19,700 (just above yesterday’s low)
TP2: 19,658.8 (yesterday’s low)
SL: Above 19,912 (today’s high)
This setup capitalizes on a rejection of key highs, a ChoCh confirmation, and fading bullish momentum.
B. Bullish Scenario (Only if we reclaim today’s high)
Entry: Strong 15-min candle close above 19,912, targeting 20,037 and beyond.
TP1: 20,037 (yesterday’s high)
TP2: 20,100–20,150 (psychological and recent rejection zone)
SL: Below 19,840
This would be a breakout-retest continuation trade, but less favorable given current structure.
6. Bias & Recommendation
Short Bias is currently favored due to:
Repeated ChoCh signals
Price trading below today's high and rejecting yesterday’s high
Weak upside follow-through despite attempts to push higher
Tight consolidation and lower highs forming near resistance
