USOUSD (WTI crude) breakout-pullback-bearish continuation?Oil has been bearish for several months now and making mostly lower highs while the area between 67.140 and 65.280 has provided solid support. About 3 weeks ago a breakout below occurred and a pullback to the support zone is now in progress.
I will be monitoring PA closely next week to see if there is any evidence of bearish continuation. If bearish price action does resume, IMO, we could well see the round number 50.00 be achieved.
This is not a trade recommendation; itโs merely my own analysis. Trading carries a high level of risk, so only trade with money you can afford to lose and carefully manage your capital and risk. If you like my idea, please give a โboostโ and follow me to get even more. Please comment and share your thoughts too!!
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WTI trade ideas
USOIL: Target Is Down! Short!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse USOIL togetherโบ๏ธ
The market is at an inflection zone and price has now reached an area around 64.411 where previous reversals or breakouts have occurred.And a price reaction that we are seeing on multiple timeframes here could signal the next move down so we can enter on confirmation, and target the next key level of 63.338..Stop-loss is recommended beyond the inflection zone.
โค๏ธSending you lots of Love and Hugsโค๏ธ
Major Crash on USOIL ???US OIL in danger of collapsing
Trading plan
SL:60
TP:50/ floating
Trading set up
break of major support since 2023 at 65 level
Lower low lower high that indicates bearish momentum
price below its moving averages that shows seller pressure
price rejects 0,618 fib retracement
reasoning:
trade war, China retaliation, global demand slowdown, and oil has broken its yearly major support.
USOIL BEST PLACE TO SELL FROM|SHORT
USOIL SIGNAL
Trade Direction: short
Entry Level: 63.67
Target Level: 56.31
Stop Loss: 68.58
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 9h
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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USOIL BULLISH BREAKOUT|LONG|
โ
CRUDE OIL is going up now
And the price made a bullish
Breakout of the key horizontal
Level of 63.00$ which is now
A support so we are bullish biased
And we will be expecting a
Bullish continuation until
Oil hits the horizontal
Resistance above around 65.61$
LONG๐
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โจโจ
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Crude oil remains oscillating at a low levelCurrently, in the 4-hour level trend of crude oil, it is still under pressure around 63. The short-term moving averages are basically in a state of being glued together and flattened, indicating that it is likely to maintain a relatively oscillatory trend towards the end of the trading session.
The operation suggestions are mainly to go long at low levels after a pullback, supplemented by going short at high levels during a rebound. In the short term, pay attention to the resistance level at 63.0 - 63.50 on the upper side, and the support level at 60.2 - 60.5 on the lower side.
Oil trading strategy๏ผ
buy @ 61.10-61.40
sl 60.35
tp 62.20-61.40
If my strategy is helpful to you, please give a thumbs-up for support. If you have different opinions, you can leave your thoughts in the comments. ๐๐๐
Choose to go short at high levels for crude oilThe price of crude oil is still fluctuating within a range and lacks clear directional momentum. The outlook remains bearish until it breaks through the $63.70 mark or there are clear factors stimulating demand. In the short term, the trend of oil prices is likely to remain confined to the current range. In terms of trading suggestions, it is advisable to mainly go short and go long as a supplement.
Oil trading strategy๏ผ
sell @ 61.90-62.10
sl 62.80
tp 61.20-61.00
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USOIL:Sharing of the Latest Trading StrategiesEIA data shows ๐: U.S. gasoline & distillate inventories plunge โฌ๏ธ, (๐signals๐)
while the increase in crude oil inventories is lower than market expectations ๐ค, which supports the rebound of oil prices ๐ผ. Meanwhile, influenced by the new round of U.S. sanctions on Iran's oil exports โ ๏ธ and some members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) committing to cut excessive production ๐ข๏ธ, oil prices are boosted ๐น.
In the short term, the objective trend direction has resumed an upward trajectory ๐, and the bullish momentum is gradually strengthening ๐ช. If the price stabilizes within the range of 61.50 - 61.80 during the pullback โ๏ธ, one can try to take a long position with a light position ๐ฐ. The target prices are between 62.5 and 64๐ฏ.
Trading Strategy:
buy@61.5-61.8
TP:62.5-64
The signals resulted in continuous profits, and accurate signals were shared daily.
๐ signals๐
WTI crude oil Wave Analysis โ 17 April 2025
- WTI crude oil reversed from key support level 55,00
- Likely to rise to resistance level 65.00
WTI crude oil recently reversed up from the key support level 55,00 standing close to the lower daily and the weekly Bollinger Bands.
The upward reversal from this support level created the weekly Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern long-legged Doji which stopped the previous impulse waves 5 and (3).
Given the strength of the support level 55,00, WTI crude oil can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 65.00 (former multiyear support level, acting as the resistance after it was broken earlier).
oil and gold prices are divergingsince 2022, the price of oil and gold
have been diverging but they mostly
will shadow each other. Commodities
reflect the inflation of the money supply.
This is the simple reason why they move
together.
they also diverged in 2018 but then
realigned. this is a good
time to buy oil companies.
USOIL Short Trade Idea โ Targeting $55.05 from $61.00Entry Point: ~61.00 USD
Stop Loss (SL): 64.77 USD
Target (TP): 55.05 USD
Risk/Reward Ratio: Favorable
Risk: ~3.77 USD
Reward: ~5.95 USD
Approximate R/R ratio: 1:1.58
๐ง Strategy Insight
Trend Context:
Prior to the entry zone, price shows a strong downtrend.
The price retraced upward into a resistance zone (highlighted in purple).
The setup suggests a short position anticipating rejection from this zone.
Indicators:
Moving Averages (red & blue):
Likely 50 EMA and 200 EMA showing bearish alignment (price mostly under both).
Resistance Zone:
The purple shaded region represents a supply zone, where price previously reversed.
Entry Zone Analysis:
Entry just below a recent rejection candle.
It's a conservative spot to catch a move back in the direction of the dominant trend.
Target Zone (55.05):
Likely based on a recent support level or demand zone from earlier price action.
Matches previous lows.
๐ Possible Scenarios
โ
Bearish Scenario (Ideal Outcome):
Price gets rejected from the resistance zone and continues the downtrend toward the target at 55.05.
โ Bullish Scenario (Risk):
Price breaks above 61.00 and continues toward 64.77, invalidating the short setup.
WTI Oil H4 | Approaching a swing-high resistanceWTI oil (USOIL) is rising towards a swing-high resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 62.71 which is a swing-high resistance.
Stop loss is at 66.00 which is a level that sits above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and a pullback resistance.
Take profit is at 57.01 which is a swing-low support.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
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CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
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Losses can exceed deposits.
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"WTI / U.S Crude Oil" Energy Market Heist Plan (Scalping/Day)๐Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo! Marhaba!๐
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Based on ๐ฅThief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis๐ฅ, here is our master plan to heist the "WTI / U.S Crude Oil" Energy Market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes long entry. Our aim is to escape near the high-risk MA Zone. Risky level, overbought market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bearish robbers are stronger. ๐๐ธ"Take profit and treat yourself, traders. You deserve it!๐ช๐๐
Entry ๐ : "The vault is wide open! Swipe the Bullish loot at any price - the heist is on!
however I advise to Place buy limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe nearest or swing low or high level for pullback entries.
Stop Loss ๐:
Thief SL placed at the Nearest / Swing low level Using the 30mins timeframe (58.000) Day trade basis.
SL is based on your risk of the trade, lot size and how many multiple orders you have to take.
๐ดโโ ๏ธTarget ๐ฏ: 66.000 (or) Escape Before the Target
๐งฒScalpers, take note ๐ : only scalp on the Long side. If you have a lot of money, you can go straight away; if not, you can join swing traders and carry out the robbery plan. Use trailing SL to safeguard your money ๐ฐ.
๐ฐ๐ต๐ธ๐ข"WTI / U.S Crude Oil" Energy Market Heist Plan (Scalping/Day) is currently experiencing a bullishness,., driven by several key factors. ๐๐๐
๐ฐ๐๏ธGet & Read the Fundamental, Macro Economics, COT Report, Inventory and Storage Analysis, Seasonal Factors, Sentimental Outlook, Intermarket Analysis, Future trend targets & Overall Score... go ahead to check ๐๐๐๐๐
โ ๏ธTrading Alert : News Releases and Position Management ๐ฐ ๐๏ธ ๐ซ๐
As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions,
we recommend the following:
Avoid taking new trades during news releases
Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits
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XTIUSD Buy Setup โ 15M Entry with 4H Confluence (April 11, 2025๐ Multi-Timeframe Confluence Strategy
This trade is a bullish entry on the 15-minute chart of Crude Oil (XTIUSD), based on a confirmed bullish structure shift on the 4H timeframe. The 15M entry aligns perfectly with HTF (higher timeframe) momentum, making this a high-probability setup.
โฐ 4H Timeframe Breakdown:
Price has broken previous 4H lower highs, confirming a structure shift from bearish to bullish.
Strong bullish engulfing candles have cleared resistance levels, turning them into new support.
Market is likely to start forming higher highs and higher lows going forward.
๐ง 15-Minute Entry Logic:
Entry taken after retracement into minor 15M demand zone.
Trade executed at the point of short-term liquidity sweep, followed by bullish confirmation candle.
This creates a perfect LTF entry within HTF trend direction.
๐ Trade Setup Details:
Entry Price: Around 60.40 โ 60.50
Stop Loss: Below intraday structure at 58.50
Take Profit: Targeting previous resistance at 63.40
โ
Why This Setup Works:
โ
4H Structure Shift โ Higher timeframe bias is now bullish
โ
15M Pullback Entry โ Clean risk-defined entry
โ
Liquidity Sweep โ Market hunted stops before reversing (classic smart money move)
โ
Clear RR Setup โ High reward for controlled risk
๐ข Pro Tip:
Keep monitoring oil-related fundamentals and U.S. economic data (like inventories, geopolitical tension, etc.)โthey often trigger momentum in XTIUSD.
RRR (Risk-Reward): Approx. 1:3, ideal for intra-swing or scalping objectives
Remove Impulsiveness by planning your trade!! BUY OIL All the information you need to find a high probability trade are in front of you on the charts so build your trading decisions on 'the facts' of the chart NOT what you think or what you want to happen or even what you heard will happen. If you have enough facts telling you to trade in a certain direction and therefore enough confluence to take a trade, then this is how you will gain consistency in you trading and build confidence. Check out my trade idea!!
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WTI - Will Iran return to the group of oil producers?!WTI oil is below the EMA200 and EMA50 on the 4-hour timeframe and is moving in its medium-term descending channel. If the correction towards the supply zone continues, the next oil selling opportunity with a suitable reward for risk will be provided for us. In this direction, with confirmation, we can look for oil buying transactions.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), in its latest report, has downgraded its forecasts for oil and natural gas production, consumption, and prices for 2025 and 2026, while warning about the uncertain outlook of the energy market amidst economic volatility and escalating trade tensions.
According to the updated estimates, U.S. crude oil production in 2025 is expected to reach 13.51 million barrels per day, down from the previous forecast of 13.61 million barrels. For 2026, the figure has been revised to 13.56 million barrels per day, a reduction from the earlier 13.76 million forecast. Monthly data shows average U.S. oil output stood at 13.44 million barrels per day in April and 13.55 million in March, with similar levels expected in May.
Globally, EIA projects oil production in 2025 to be around 104.1 million barrels per day, slightly down from the earlier estimate of 104.2 million. For 2026, the revised figure stands at 105.3 million barrels per day compared to the previous 105.8 million.
On the demand side, global oil consumption forecasts have also been reduced. In 2025, demand is now estimated at 103.6 million barrels per day instead of 104.1 million, and for 2026 it is projected at 104.7 million barrels per day, down from the prior estimate of 105.3 million.
Regarding natural gas, the EIA reports that average U.S. gas production in April will be around 115 billion cubic feet per day, slightly lower than the 115.3 billion cubic feet reported in March. Mayโs forecast stands at 115.4 billion cubic feet. Demand has also dipped, with estimates for 2025 now at 91.2 billion cubic feet per day (down from 92), and for 2026 at 90.5 billion (previously 91.1).
In terms of pricing, EIA has made significant downward revisions. The average price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is now forecast to be $63.88 per barrel in 2025, compared to the earlier $70.68. For 2026, this drops further to $57.48. Brent crude is now estimated at $67.87 for 2025 and $61.48 for 2026, both notably lower than prior projections.
One key highlight from the report is EIAโs warning about high volatility in major commodity prices, especially crude oil. The agency underlined that reciprocal tariffs between China and the U.S. could heavily impact markets, particularly the propane sector.
EIA noted that U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports are likely to remain resilient despite trade disputes. This is attributed to strong global demand and the flexible nature of U.S. export contracts, which allow unrestricted shipments to multiple destinations.
However, when it comes to oil and petroleum products, the agency maintained a more cautious tone, emphasizing that recent shifts in global trade policies and oil production patterns may slow the growth of demand for petroleum-based products through 2026.
Altogether, the downward revisions by the EIA carry a clear message: the energy market outlook over the coming years is fraught with uncertainty. From supply and demand to pricing, political and economic forces such as trade wars and potential global recessions are expected to play decisive roles.
Meanwhile, according to Reuters, after U.S. President Donald Trump once again threatened military action if Tehran refuses to agree to a nuclear deal, a senior Iranian official responded by warning that Iran may halt its cooperation with the U.N.โs nuclear watchdog.
Reports indicate that American and Iranian diplomats will meet in Oman on Saturday to begin talks on Tehranโs nuclear program. Trump stated that he would have the final say on whether the negotiations are failing, which could place Iran in a highly dangerous position.
Ali Shamkhani, a senior adviser to Iranโs Supreme Leader, posted on X (formerly Twitter) that ongoing foreign threats and the looming threat of military confrontation could lead to deterrent actions such as expelling International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors and cutting ties with the agency.He also mentioned that relocating enriched uranium to secure, undisclosed locations within Iran may be under consideration
USOIL may continue to decline due to tariffsRestricted Economic Growth : The United States imposes tariffs, and other countries take countermeasures, intensifying global trade frictions and greatly increasing the risk of economic recession. NIESR predicts that if Trump imposes a 10% tariff on the world and a 60% tariff on China, the global GDP will shrink by 2% and the trade volume will decrease by 6% within five years ๐. The weak economy causes the demand for crude oil in various industries to decline, leading to a drop in the price of USOIL ๐.
Changes in Crude Oil Supply and Demand :
Demand Side: China imposes tariffs on U.S. crude oil, raising the import cost and reducing the import volume. The United States imposes tariffs on energy imports from Canada and Mexico, affecting the crude oil exports of these two countries to the U.S., reducing the demand for crude oil in the United States and putting pressure on the price of USOIL ๐.
Supply Side: After China reduces its imports of U.S. crude oil, it increases imports from other exporting countries, changing the global crude oil supply pattern and possibly strengthening the expectation of a supply surplus. The decrease in U.S. crude oil exports may lead to an increase in domestic inventory, exerting downward pressure on the price of USOIL ๐ฃ.
Influenced Market Sentiment :
The uncertainty of tariff policies and the escalation of trade frictions trigger market panic and speculation, intensifying the volatility of the crude oil market. Investors, being pessimistic, sell futures contracts, further driving down the price of USOIL ๐จ.
This upward movement has led to the clearing of many traders' accounts or significant losses ๐ซ. You can follow my signals and gradually recover your losses and achieve profitability ๐.
๐ฐ๐ฐ๐ฐ USOIL๐ฐ๐ฐ๐ฐ
๐ฏ Sell@61.0 - 61.5
๐ฏ TP 59.0 - 58.0
Traders, if you're fond of this perspective or have your own insights regarding it, feel free to share in the comments. I'm really looking forward to reading your thoughts! ๐ค
WTI - buy here or wait for 68$ My analysis of WTI in early December was good and it did wat I expected, but a stupid stop kicked me out it wave 2.
Then got the perfect entry for the short at 80.5 but didn't hold long enough...
So what to do next ? Could buy it here at the 0.236 retracement but I'd rather buy at 68.5 with a stop at 67.
Always keep in mind there is also politics involved here. Oil producers need higher prices to be profitable but on the other hand they want the price of oil to drop so Russia cannot sustain their war in Ukraine.
CRUDE OIL (WTI): Important Support Clusters to Watch
On a today's live stream, we discussed potentially significant
historic supports on WTI Crude Oil to watch.
Support 1: 57.0 - 59.0 area
Support 2: 52.5 - 54.6 area
Support 3: 48.8 - 50.4 area
Support 4: 40.6 - 43.7 area
The price is currently testing a lower boundary of Support 1.
It perfectly matches with a completion point of a harmonic ABCD pattern.
It looks like we may see some pullback soon.
โค๏ธPlease, support my work with like, thank you!โค๏ธ
USOIL SENDS CLEAR BULLISH SIGNALS|LONG
USOIL SIGNAL
Trade Direction: long
Entry Level: 57.67
Target Level: 66.44
Stop Loss: 51.82
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 12h
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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