Crude Oil Short /CF /CF
Crude oil idea
30m supply zone
30m resistance
Higher time frame downtrend
Potential liquidity sweep above 69.31
6:1 RR
A+ setup
WTI trade ideas
Instrument: WTI Crude OilCurrent Price: $69.29
Overall Bias: Neutral to Bearish (Short-term downside risk)
Key Observations:
1. 12-Month Chart (Long-Term):
• Price Action: WTI Crude is currently trading at $69.29, having retraced from a high of $98.59.
• Fibonacci Levels:
• The price is currently hovering around the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement at $73.80.
• 0.618 level (strong support) lies at $67.94.
• Support Levels: Key long-term support is at $67.94. A breakdown below this could lead to further downside towards $60.70.
• Resistance Levels: Immediate resistance is at $77.00 (just above the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement).
• Volume: 411.056M, signaling significant long-term trading activity.
2. 1-Month Chart:
• Price Action: WTI Crude peaked at $135.00 and has been correcting ever since. The price is now around $69.29 after finding support in the $60-70 range.
• Support Levels: $69.29 is the immediate support, with major long-term support at $56.82.
• Resistance Levels: Immediate resistance at $75.00 and the next key resistance around $96.10 (0.236 Fibonacci level).
• RSI: RSI is sitting at 59.40, indicating a neutral to slightly bullish momentum, but still within a broader downward structure.
3. 1-Week Chart:
• Price Action: Crude oil is attempting to rebound from the $67.94 level (close to the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement).
• Support Levels: Immediate support at $69.29 and the 0.618 Fibonacci level at $67.94.
• Resistance Levels: Strong resistance lies at $84.00 (close to the 0.382 Fibonacci level). Above that, $96.10 would be the next significant level to watch.
• RSI: 50.49, suggesting crude is at a neutral point with neither overbought nor oversold conditions.
• Stochastic Oscillator: Positioned at 17.06, which is nearing the oversold region, implying potential for a bounce in the short term.
4. 1-Day Chart:
• Price Action: The daily chart shows crude struggling at $69.29. A target of $81.51 is visible, but only if the price can hold above current levels.
• Support Levels: Immediate support at $69.29, with potential downside to $65.55 and further to $60.70.
• Resistance Levels: Resistance at $77.00 and $81.51.
• RSI: RSI at 40.41, indicating the asset is nearing oversold territory.
• Stochastic Oscillator: 15.95, which is also signaling oversold conditions. This suggests there could be a short-term bounce before further downside.
5. 4-Hour Chart:
• Price Action: WTI Crude recently tested support at $67.95 but is showing some consolidation around $69.29. There’s potential for a short-term bounce, but downside risks remain significant.
• Support Levels: Immediate support at $65.55. If broken, this could lead to a drop towards $60.70.
• Resistance Levels: Resistance at $77.00, with a target of $84.00 if bullish momentum picks up.
• RSI: 32.23, indicating oversold conditions and potential for a short-term bounce.
• Stochastic Oscillator: Deep into oversold territory at 9.13, suggesting an imminent bounce is possible.
6. 30-Minute Chart:
• Price Action: The short-term structure shows a local high of $87.56 before a steady decline to $69.29.
• Support Levels: Immediate support lies at $68.04, and below that, $65.55 becomes critical.
• Resistance Levels: Short-term resistance is at $77.00.
• RSI: 34.77, indicating oversold conditions, suggesting there could be a short-term bounce.
• Stochastic Oscillator: Currently at 36.10, signaling that downward pressure could persist in the short term.
Trading Strategy:
Primary Bias: Neutral to Bearish with potential short-term bounce
• Short Position:
• Entry: If WTI Crude fails to hold above $69.29 and starts breaking down below $67.94 (0.618 Fibonacci retracement), this could be an opportunity to short.
• Stop-Loss: Place a stop-loss above $77.00 (immediate resistance).
• Take-Profit Levels:
• First target: $65.55.
• Second target: $60.70 (0.764 Fibonacci level).
• Aggressive target: $56.82.
• Long Position (Bounce Play):
• Entry: If WTI Crude holds above the $67.94 level and shows signs of a reversal, consider a long position.
• Stop-Loss: Place a stop-loss below $65.55 to manage downside risk.
• Take-Profit Levels:
• First target: $77.00.
• Second target: $81.51.
• Aggressive target: $84.00.
Risk Management:
• Position Sizing: Given the volatile nature of crude oil, use conservative position sizing to manage risk, especially with the potential for sharp reversals.
• Stop-Loss: Always keep strict stop-losses in place as the downside potential remains significant, especially if $67.94 support breaks.
Conclusion:
WTI Crude Oil is at a critical juncture, currently trading near its 0.618 Fibonacci retracement at $67.94. A break below this level could open the door to further downside, with potential targets at $65.55 and $60.70. However, oversold conditions on multiple time frames suggest that a short-term bounce is possible.
For bearish traders, a breakdown below $67.94 is a trigger for shorts, with targets around $65.55 and $60.70. Bullish traders should watch for support holding at $67.94, with upside targets at $77.00 and $81.51 if the rebound materializes.
Drop Base Drop Pattern: A Technical Analysis PerspectiveDefinition:
The Drop Base Drop pattern is a technical chart pattern that indicates a potential continuation of a downtrend. It consists of a sharp decline in price, followed by a period of consolidation or sideways movement (the base), and then a resumption of the downtrend.
Formation:
First Drop: A significant price decline.
Base Formation: A period of consolidation or sideways movement, often below the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level of the previous decline.
Second Drop: A continuation of the downtrend, breaking below the base's low.
Trading Implications:
Sell Signal: If the Drop Base Drop forms below the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level in a downtrend, it suggests a potential continuation of the bearish trend.
Risk Management: Employ stop-loss orders to mitigate potential losses.
Confirmation: Seek additional technical indicators or chart patterns to reinforce the bearish signal.
Key Considerations:
False Breakouts: Be cautious of false breakouts, where the price temporarily breaks below the base's low but then reverses.
Market Conditions: The effectiveness of the pattern may vary depending on overall market conditions and the specific characteristics of the underlying asset.
Individual Stocks: The pattern's reliability can differ between stocks. Analyze multiple timeframes and technical indicators for a more comprehensive assessment.
Conclusion:
The Drop Base Drop pattern can be a valuable tool for identifying potential downtrend continuations. However, it's essential to use it in conjunction with other technical analysis techniques and risk management strategies.
LONG OILPrice has found support at $70. Looking for the low of the week to be in . Stop loss is a nice distance away just incase it needs one last push lower. Looking for this to be the next swing low after OPEC has paused the planned oil hike .
Crude Oil Technical Analysis.Weekly - Bearish - Price is below the trend-line (Grey)
Daily - Bearish - Price is below the trend-line (Blue)
4 hour - Bearish - Price is below the trend-line (Red)
30 mins - Bearish - Price is below the trend-line (Yellow)
I have placed one trade to the downside risking 1%.
This is not a financial advice just the way I trade and on how I’m see the markets.
USDOILSPOTThis trade will go up and take out equal highs before the end of trading today.
This is based on it already taking out liquidity from today and yesterday. A move to the upside will now happen - crossing moving averages on the way. Additionally, price is in a very low discount standard deviation against vwap from today and previous days.
USOIL / TRADING ABOVE DEMAND ZONE IN THE DAILY CHART - 4HUSOIL / 4H TIME FRAME
HELO TRADERS
The overall trend is uptrend , until trading above demand zone in the daily chart .
Current Position Prices are above the demand zone, which is a strong support area. This indicates that the current support level is holding and may lead to a price increase , For an uptrend to be confirmed, prices need to break and stabilize above turning level at 71.82 . Successfully doing so suggests that the bullish momentum is strong enough to push prices towards the next resistance levels at 74.24 and then 76.21.
If prices fall below 71.82 and stabilize, it indicates that the support level is no longer effective, potentially leading to a decline , If prices reach 69.18 and a 4-hour or 1-hour candle closes below this level, it suggests a continuation of the downtrend. A further break and stabilization below 68.28 would confirm a sustained bearish trend, indicating further price decreases.
KEY LEVELS :
TURNING LEVEL : 71.82 .
RESISTANCE LEVELS : 74.24 , 76.21 .
SUPPORT LEVELS : 69.18 , 68.28 .
USOIL BUYERS WILL DOMINATE THE MARKET|LONG
Hello, Friends!
We are now examining the USOIL pair and we can see that the pair is going down locally while also being in a downtrend on the 1W TF. But there is also a powerful signal from the BB lower band being nearby indicating that the pair is oversold so we can go long from the support line below and a target at 73.19 level.
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USOIL Is Going Up! Long!
Please, check our technical outlook for USOIL.
Time Frame: 8h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is testing a major horizontal structure 69.81.
Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 72.72 level soon.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
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WTI Crude Crucial Runover At Lows..The current fall on Oil has taken us a key level where there has been repeated price rejection.
It's far easier to trade within the realms of reality with calculated risk, than it is to overleverage and guess.
Spot Crude Oil 30-Minute Chart AnalysisStrategy Overview:
The chart shows Spot Crude Oil on a 30-minute timeframe, where price action is consolidating around the 70.00 USD level. The market is currently trading in a tight range, suggesting the possibility of an upcoming breakout.
Key Levels:
Support Levels:
The price is finding support at 69.871, which acts as a critical level for potential upward movements.
A break below this support could signal further downside momentum, possibly testing lower levels around 69.399.
Resistance Levels:
The nearest resistance sits at 70.431, where the price may face selling pressure if tested.
Further resistance is identified in the 72.00-72.50 zone, marked as a strong supply area. A successful breakout above this resistance could indicate a stronger bullish move in the medium term.
Trading Strategy:
Buying Strategy: A buy entry can be considered near the support level of 69.871, with a stop loss just below this level. The first target would be the 70.431 resistance zone, and the second target can be the 72.00-72.50 range.
Selling Strategy: If the price fails to break above 70.431, a short position can be initiated targeting a pullback towards 69.871. A break below this level would confirm the bearish momentum.
RSI Confirmation:
The RSI indicator is showing neutral momentum, hovering around the middle range. A breakout above 70.431 may be confirmed if the RSI moves into overbought territory, while a drop below 69.871 could push the RSI toward oversold conditions.
Conclusion:
With price consolidating between 69.871 and 70.431, this chart suggests both buying and selling opportunities based on how the market reacts to these key levels. The upcoming sessions could see either a breakout above resistance for bullish continuation or a failure that could result in a bearish correction.
Crude oil might get back into the rangeCrude oil might get back into the trading range, as the possibility of a false breakout is pretty high: markets rarely make big moves ahead of NFP report.
Now, the position of the price is below the massive triangular formation as well as below the intermediate-term low.
Oil is driven down, as well as DXY, by expectations of extreme dovishness of the Fed, which might not be the case: traders still weigh probabilities of two scenarios (one vs two-step declines) as equal.
For traders willing to take the risk, the current point represents an asymmetrical trading opportunity for a long position.
Always DYOR and manage your risk!
WTI Crude Oil Ready for a BounceThe chart shows a break of a rising trendline with price pulling back to retest the $69.40 support level.
Given the rejection at this level, there's a potential for a bullish reversal targeting the next liquidity area around $72.50.
Traders should watch for confirmation of a higher low before entering long positions to ride the breakout.
#OIL rebound#OIL is @ $70.05
#Buy and #TP @$71.75
While major NSE:OIL producers may delay an output increase planned for next month and American Petroleum Institute (API) data showing U.S. crude oil fell by 7.431 million barrels last week.
USOIL Downtrend Line Rejection At $69.43 05.09.2024USOIL: Downtrendline rejection at $69.43 on 1HR chart.
If confirmed, targets are $68.09 and $66.42.
If rejected, targets are $70.42 and $71.23.
Apply risk management
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Disclaimer
US OILA **bullish divergence** is a technical analysis term used to identify potential reversals in a downtrend. It occurs when the price of an asset is making lower lows, but an indicator (such as the Relative Strength Index, RSI, or MACD) is making higher lows. This suggests that while the price is declining, the selling pressure is weakening, and there may be a shift towards upward momentum.
There are two types of bullish divergences:
Regular Bullish Divergence**: It signals a potential trend reversal from a downtrend to an uptrend. It occurs when:
- Price makes lower lows.
- Indicator (like RSI or MACD) makes higher lows.
Hidden Bullish Divergence**: This signals a continuation of the uptrend during a pullback. It occurs when:
- Price makes higher lows.
- Indicator makes lower lows.
Both divergences suggest that a potential upward movement could occur, but they are not guaranteed and should be used alongside other tools for confirmation.
Recession Alert: WTI Trendline Breakdown Mirrors Previous CrasheThe WTI trendline is exhibiting a parallel to past crude oil price crashes, specifically the 2014 oversupply crisis driven by booming US Shale production and the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic. Given this historical similarity, a critical question arises: is the current trendline breakdown a warning sign of an impending recession?
WTI - This Might Get NastyThe oil market is extremely exciting. The price is currently approaching a long-term support zone between USD 66 and 68. Will the price hold there? In my view, this is questionable.
I am taking a bearish stance on WTI for several reasons:
First of all, the global economy is sluggish, which is causing demand for oil to fall. As things stand at present, the world's largest economy, the USA, is also heading for a recession. At the same time, renewable energies are on the rise, which in turn is dampening demand for oil.
From a technical perspective, the volume profile is cause for concern: if we look at the profile between the low from 2020 and the high from 2022, we can see that the price of WTI has only now entered the value area.
The POC is around USD 40.50 and therefore significantly below the support zone. The low of the value area is even just over USD 31.
Unfortunately, I cannot show the volume profile in this chart due to a lack of data; instead, I have derived it from the CL chart (WTI futures). If the downward trend continues, WTI could start its first braking attempts at around 55 dollars.
I am not saying that WTI is necessarily bearish. Still less am I calling for merciless shorting of the market. However, I would like to point out that a very sharp fall in prices is possible if WTI breaks through the aforementioned support zone between USD 66 and 68.
USOIL:BUY@70.3-72.8
After a sharp decline, the current indicators have the conditions for a rebound. Today, USOIL can be traded long, with short-term targets of 71.6/72/72.7
CRUDE OIL Strong Support Ahead! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
CRUDE OIL keeps falling
But the price will soon hit
A horizontal support level
Of 66.92$ from where we
Will be expecting a rebound
And a local bullish correction
Because oil is already oversold
Sell!
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Oil Is Heading Down In Price, Support at $72 Just Broke, Low $60The price of Oil was in a trading range between $72 and $85ish, this past week it broke down support and now is going to head lower, I suspect we can see $62ish at first level of support, but I think mid $50's is now on the table.
Why? Elections are upon us and they want to make costs come down, so it looks like they are curbing inflation and thus justify more rate drops. Also if Trump wins, he is talking about lower energy costs and ramping up production in the US, so the outlook is bearish for the energy commodities prices... as supply increases and demand remains the same, price goes down... and so the bear market starts.
USOIL.. Breakout!? what's next??#USOIL.. perfectly break our area with further drop.
It market continue his drop the. It will leads you towards downside next mentioned areas.
Don't buy until any confirmation.
Good luck
Trade wisely
USOIL Weekly - Key Buy and Sell LevelsOn the weekly chart for USOIL , we’re observing significant levels that could dictate future price movements. The green lines mark potential buy opportunities where price might experience bullish support. Conversely, the red lines indicate critical sell zones where bearish pressure could come into play. These levels are essential for long-term trading strategies and market analysis.
Disclaimer: Trading involves risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own analysis before making any trading decisions.
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