OIL Short - Tariffs Might Pump The USDUSD goes up. Oil goes down. Oil is heavily longed, I expect a major flush down.
WTI1! trade ideas
CRUDE - WEEKLY SUMMARY 17.2-21.2 / FORECAST🛢 CRUDE – 12th week of the base cycle (28 weeks), mature 1st phase. Holding the short position from the February 3 extreme forecast. The first phase of the base cycle is not yet complete but is very mature. Crude is pressing against strong support at 69.80 on the April futures contract, which must either be broken or eroded. I believe the maturity of the 1st phase in this context is not coincidental.
⚠️ I maintain my bearish stance, which I explained in my crude oil post from summer 2024. Next pivot forecast for crude: February 24. Next extreme forecast: March 3.
MICRO CRUDE OIL - BULLISH OR BEARISH INCOMING ACTION?Crude Oil looking to breakout this week. Downside or upside? Let's hear your thoughts.
CL 15M Bearish ICT Unicorn Breaker to go shortCL retraced back to Daily FVG zone, swept previous daily high and reversed sharply leaving 15M breaker aligned with 15M FVGs. Setting limit order to go short at the breaker.
CL 15M Bearish ICT Unicorn breakerCL is in Daily downtrend. It retraced to Daily FVG, swepr previous day high and reversed sharply. 15M ICT Unicorn breaker has formed. Setting limit order to go short
USOIL Sell Setup🔻 USOIL Sell Setup
📉 MSS Confirmed → Liquidity Grab
🎯 Target: Equal Lows (Sell-Side Liquidity)
🔍 Entry: Retrace to FVG / OB in Premium
⏳ Confirm: Volume + Momentum
🔥 Let me know if you need a chart! 🚀
Possible riseOil is now in a correction phase after having been descending, as noted on the left side of the chart. The price may move between 73.72 and 70.12 and a break of either side may lead to bull run or a bearish continuation.
For the immediate bullish rise, if price continues to be above 70.12, and passes 71.6 simultaneously settling above, the commodity may try to touch 73.000 zone
My View : CLJ2025 - Crude Oil Futures (April 2025)Summary analysis :
Price Movement: The current price is at 71.43, showing a slight decrease of 0.01 (-0.02%) from the previous close. The price has been relatively stable within a narrow range, with the high at 71.46 and the low at 71.38.
Trend Indicator s: The Heikin Ashi candles suggest a potential consolidation phase, as there is no strong directional movement indicated by the candles. The Bollinger Bands (BB20) show the price is near the middle band (SMA close at 71.10), indicating a balanced market without significant volatility.
Support and Resistance : Key support levels are around 71.00 and 70.50, while resistance levels are near 72.50 and 73.00. The price is currently hovering near the lower end of the recent range.
Volume and Momentum : The volume data is not explicitly provided, but the lack of significant price movement suggests low momentum. The ARIMA forecast (BQECASTHL) indicates a potential for minor fluctuations without a clear trend.
Fractals and Signals : The presence of fractals suggests potential reversal points, but without a clear pattern, it’s challenging to predict a strong move. The SELL and BUY signals are not strongly pronounced, indicating a neutral market sentiment.
Time Frame : The analysis is based on a 1-hour chart, which is suitable for short-term trading. Traders should monitor for breakout signals above 71.46 or below 71.38 for potential short-term opportunities.
In summary, the Crude Oil Futures market for April 2025 is currently in a consolidation phase with limited volatility. Traders should watch for breakout signals and monitor key support and resistance levels for potential trading opportunities.
CL: Squeeze: sell ideaOn CL as you can see on the graph we have a squeeze. This means that we would have a high probability of seeing the market go downward over a time unit of one (1) hour, especially when the vwap is broken forcefully by a large red candle.
Bearish Outlook: Short Crude Oil Next Week as Resistance Holds- Key Insights: Crude oil is currently entrenched in a bearish trend, with
recent trading activity indicating waning speculative interest and a
reluctance to decisively break past resistance levels. The market is
consolidating around the low 70s, reflecting broader concerns about
geopolitical tensions and their impact on supply. This scenario presents a
viable short opportunity as prices may struggle to maintain upward momentum.
- Price Targets:
Next week targets are T1 = 68.50, T2 = 66.00.
Stop levels are
S1 = 72.50, S2 = 73.50.
This positioning reflects the current market sentiment and expected resistance.
- Recent Performance: The crude oil market has experienced a series of lower
highs and lows, and trading has remained stagnant. Prices have been hovering
in a narrow range, with a slight bearish inclination driven by external
factors and limited investor confidence.
- Expert Analysis: Analysts project continued bearish movements for crude oil in
the short-term, advising caution among traders. Geopolitical events,
particularly concerning Iran, remain critical in shaping market dynamics,
alongside potential impacts from OPEC's decisions.
- News Impact: Geopolitical concerns, particularly around sanctions against Iran
and conflicts influencing global oil supply chains, are pivotal in
understanding current price movements. Developments in Ukraine and OPEC’s
production strategies are additional elements that could sway market
direction.
Crude Oil Short Setup: Targeting the Low $70s to High $69sCrude oil appears to be showing signs of bearish momentum after a failed attempt to break higher. With the price stalling around the $71.00 level, we’re positioning for a short trade targeting a retracement into the low $70s or possibly into the high $69s, where we see potential support levels.
MCL1! – Bearish Target in Play MCL1! – Bearish Target in Play
🔻 Short Bias | 🎯 Target: 70.36824 | ⏳ Deadline: Feb 25
After a temporary bounce, crude oil is facing resistance, and momentum suggests a move lower toward 70.36824 is possible. Monitoring price action for further confirmation.
💡 All trades can be replayed on TradingView for confirmation.
#CrudeOil #MCL #TradingView #MarketAnalysis
#202507 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oil futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: No bigger opinion on this trading range. 70 holds, we chop until a bigger news event pushes us above 74. Below 70 we could flush to 69 and then 67.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 70 - 75
bull case: Bulls preventing meaningful lower lows but we have a clear bear trend line. Bulls are still favored going into next week to buy around 70 and test back up to at least 72. They want to break above the Tuesday high 73.67 and make the market more neutral again. If they get it, we could test 75 next.
Invalidation is below 69.7.
bear case: Bears have closed the week near the lows and they want to poke at 70 until it fails. I have no idea how likely that is next week but for now it’s support and if we see decent buying pressure tomorrow, bulls are favored. Volume is also trash again. Below 70 we test 69 and then 67.
Invalidation is above 75.
short term: Neutral for now. Still no interest in this tbh. 70 should hold but the last thing I want to do is buying this. Nothing has changed since last Sunday. Play the range or trade something else.
medium-long term - Update from 2025-01-19: Triangle is dead and market is now in a proper trading range with upside to 80 or even 85.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Nothing
CL1! SELL 70.25CL1! currently trending strong to downside
daily/ 4hr
* if we can get a 15min candle to close near/ below 70.25 area trend should continue
* exit around 68.54 if we get enough momentum or once you start seeing strong buying pressure
CRUDE - WEEKLY SUMMARY 10.2-14.2 / FORECAST🛢 CRUDE – 11th week of the base cycle (28 weeks), mature 1st phase. The pivot forecast on February 11 worked as a reversal, similar to the extreme forecast on February 3. This marks the second reversal from the combined resistance of the MA20 and the large triangle boundary, which I discussed in previous posts. Holding the short position from the February 3 extreme forecast. The first phase of the base cycle isn’t over yet, but it is very mature.
⚠️ Note that the pivot forecast on January 17 marked a triple top with the extreme forecasts of July 1 and April 12 (Retrograde Mercury). I maintain my bearish stance, which I explained in my crude oil post from summer 2024. Next pivot forecast for crude: February 24. Next extreme forecast: March 3.
SHORT ON OILIf it rejects of 72.00 I'm looking for a quick sell. If not I'm looking for buy to the upside. Still overall downtrend, but may be trying to reverse, just hasn't broken that 4Hr Level yet. Watching News today as well.
Crude Oil (MCLH2025) – Bullish Setup DevelopingCrude Oil (MCLH2025) – Bullish Setup Developing
🟢 Long Bias | 🎯 Target: 71.47014 | ⏳ Deadline: Feb 14
Price is consolidating after a recent move, showing potential for an upward push. Watching for momentum to build toward the 71.47014 target. A break above could open further upside opportunities.
💡 All trades can be replayed on TradingView for confirmation.
#CrudeOil #MCL #Futures #TradingView #MarketAnalysis
Bias is Long on OilHitting an Daily Level, may be bouncing back from a big ~300-Tick move to the downside. Engulfing candle on the 15 min. Currently in a Low Value Area 70.64. Point of Control is 72.45. Hoping for a nice pullback since it's still in overall downtrend. Trying to catch some moves before market opens...Lets' see. Up, up, and away.
CL longsTaking CL longs here, based on my model that was posted before. Same setup, partials taken, rest will be managed accordingly. Support on H4 BISI, following same OF in 15m and 5 m confirmation entry.
CL1! BULLISH intraday forcast The outlook for CL (Crude Oil) in intraday trading is somewhat mixed, with a few bullish factors and technical indicators to consider. Recent analysis shows that while technical signals point to a bearish trend in the short term, there are elements suggesting potential price support. For instance, the strength of the crude crack spread has risen to a 5¾-month high, which could indicate positive momentum for crude prices. Additionally, the U.S. GDP growth is showing positive signs, potentially leading to an increase in oil demand. This economic growth could push prices higher, especially if the market responds favorably to these fundamentals. However, technical indicators, including moving averages, suggest a "Sell" position at the moment. Therefore, traders should monitor market developments closely, weighing both the technical signals and broader economic factors when considering intraday trading strategies for CL.
CL1 LongsThis is exactly my setup and how price action shows it hands that my model is playing out. H4 BISI with 15m FVG supporting the orderflow and 5m SIBI being invalidated to take out that smooth highs.
Bearish Outlook for Crude Oil: Short Position Recommended Next W
- Key Insights: The crude oil market is exhibiting bearish momentum with lower
highs and lower lows. Key geopolitical factors will remain pivotal in
determining price trends. Investors are advised to monitor resistance levels
closely, as any breaches could alter the current outlook.
- Price Targets: Next week targets are T1 at $70.50 and T2 at $68.50. Stop
levels are S1 at $73.00 and S2 at $75.00.
- Recent Performance: Crude oil has been trapped in a bearish channel, with
significant resistance at $73.50. The trend of lower price action is
influenced by a combination of supply/demand dynamics and market sentiment.
- Expert Analysis: Experts indicate sustained pressure on crude oil prices
unless resistance at $73.50 is overcome. The potential for a shift in focus
towards commodities could heighten market volatility, yet bearish sentiment
remains due to current pressures.
- News Impact: Recent geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East,
coupled with fluctuating sanctions on Russia, are impacting oil price
stability. Developments from Saudi Aramco regarding pricing strategies also
add to the uncertainty facing the crude oil market.
Crude Oil Analysis near resistance areaAs the market continues to react to various economic indicators and geopolitical developments, Crude Oil prices are currently at a pivotal point.
Below are two potential scenarios based on the current market conditions.
Current Analysis: Crude Oil is currently facing a critical resistance zone between $71.5 and $72.8. Based on the price action and market sentiment, I foresee two potential scenarios:
Scenario 1: Bearish Reversal
Resistance Strength: The resistance at $71.5 and $72.8 is strong.
Expected Movement: If the price fails to break through this resistance, I anticipate a rebound, leading to a decline towards the $68-$69 area.
Action Plan:
Entry Signal: Monitor for bearish price action signals, such as a Shooting Star or a Bearish Engulfing Pattern, indicating a potential reversal.
Entry Point: Enter a short position upon confirmation of the bearish signal.
Target: Set a target at the $68-$69 range.
Stop Loss: Place a stop loss at $72.8 to manage risk effectively.
Scenario 2: Bullish Breakout
Resistance Strength: The resistance at $71.5 and $72.8 is weak.
Expected Movement: If the price successfully breaks above this resistance, I expect it to rally towards the $77-$77.5 area.
Action Plan:
Entry Signal: Wait for a confirmed close above $72.8, ideally accompanied by a strong bullish candle (preferably a long green candle) to validate the breakout.
Entry Point: Enter a long position upon confirmation of the breakout.
Target: Set a target in the $78-$79 range.
Stop Loss: Place a stop loss at $71.5 to protect against potential reversals.
Summary
The key levels to watch are $71.5 and $72.8 for potential reversals or breakouts. I will wait for confirmation through price action signals befare takeing a decision.
