"Drill baby drill"Will we get a second leg up on crude oil? We might be in for a multi year bull market here.
WTICOUSD trade ideas
US oil consolidation breakdown alert trend Sell continue channel📉 USOIL Price Forecast – Channel Downtrend & Breakout Alert! 🚨
🔹 Market Overview:
USOIL remains in a channel downtrend, with a bullish retest at $70.00 - $70.60 before continuing its downward move. After a sideways consolidation, the market broke down with a strong bearish candle, signaling further downside potential.
🔹 Key Levels to Watch:
✅ Retest Zone: $70.00 - $70.60
✅ Sell Entry: $68.80
✅ Target: $68.00 → $67.00
📌 Trading Strategy & Risk Management:
✔ Follow the trend – momentum favors sellers
✔ Protect your capital – control stop loss
✔ Stick to the trading plan
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Crude Oil / WTI short cheap and good time to bounceVolatility on WTI has been very strong on past years but is narrowing. Especially in past months we can see a seemingly tightening volatility in prices. And we all know what that means right ?!
Correct, a breakout will follow. The questions is only in which direction. A good risk ration is achievable since we are very close to a bounce level / support (green line) and far away from the next resistance (red line). Commodity markets tend to be mean reverting and whenever commodities are cheap it makes sense to but them. Boom and bust cycles. But this is rather a long term strategy.
In any case, breakdown as below:
Entry:
Ideally we would average down the long position down to 67.28 and potentially below, in case price tests areas below.
Exit:
Ideally we would exit at TP slightly before 80 USD to avoid the resistance and the magical strength of full numbers. Something like 79.4 USD should work.
If price moves against us close at SL or once daily candle break below the support and closes.
In such case we could even consider a short position but with tight TP as fundamental dont point towards much lower prices.
Conclusion:
An easy trade can be entered with good risk reward ratio if executed correctly.
Disclaimer: This is non financial advice
let me know if any question.
Bullish rebound off pullback support?USO/USD is reacting off the support level which is a pullback support that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension and could rise from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 67.16
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that lines up with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension.
Stop loss: 65.80
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that lines up with the 100% Fibonacci projection.
Take profit: 69.33
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
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WTI WEEKLY ANALYSIS WTI::=WTI's weekly correction has been completed, now it will go further in the next cycle, I am hopeful that now it will reach the long target, my previous prediction results have been 100%, the target has been fully achieved, today's weekly analysis is also my personal opinion, trade should always be done according to one's own prediction.
OilHello traders, please feel free to share your trading ideas, and please give a Boost if you agree with my trading plan. My trading strategy is Price Action, which is the simplest strategy of trading on the price movement. A key part of my discipline is Stop Loss set when opening a trading position, which ensures every trading is risk managed. My 1 to 1 trading training is available, please message. Trade well and good luck!
MY VISION THE US OIL FOR NEXT WEEKSRecent data indicates that U.S. crude oil prices are projected to average around $70.66 per barrel in 2025, with ample supply expected to stabilize prices despite ongoing political uncertainties.
Additionally, Goldman Sachs anticipates a modest short-term boost in U.S. energy production due to current tariff policies, which could influence oil prices.
iven these factors, U.S. oil prices are expected to remain relatively stable in the coming weeks, with potential fluctuations influenced by geopolitical developments and trade policies.
Had this planned out for weeks, Finally time
Been watching this since about $73 and drew this up and had a lot more fair value gaps ut the 68.68 was a number that lined up in a FVG and on the trendline.. Could have went to the lower one but felt safe here with a SL at $67 possibly losing the trendline. 4hr or 1 day chart. Data seemed consistent. Now we wait and see. First TP $75 possible $100 if we break out. if not we bounce in the range take some swing shorts as a hedge.
USOIL Is going to Drop to 75.8 A BarrelThe price of USOIL is expected to decline to $75.8 per barrel, indicating a potential bearish move in the market. Traders should watch for key support levels and market reactions to confirm the trend. Factors like supply-demand shifts, geopolitical events, and economic data could influence the drop.
USOIL - at breakout level? what's next??#USOIL.. market perfect breakout in yesterday and now again market just near to his today breakout level or resistance area that is around 67.85-90
keep close that level and if that is clear breakout then we can expect a further drop...
dont be lazy.
good luck
trade wisely
Oil Tariff Problems – Breaking Lower From a Sideways Range?In a previous post on Oil from December 9th (please take a look at our timeline for details) we highlighted that prices were back to an interesting level on the chart. Tests of an uptrend, which had been forming since the September 10th low at 65.63, were being seen as a sideways range in price developed.
It was suggested at the time that traders may be watching this support level, as closing breaks below it might expose a more extended phase of price weakness, or if the support held, upside pressures might emerge once more. As we now know, the support level remained intact and a strong price rally was seen up to 81.01, the January 15th session high.
However, as impressive as the December/January Oil price strength proved to be, after trading to the 81.01 January 15th highs, there was an equally significant failure of upside momentum, as sellers materialised again. This saw a sharp decline in Oil prices, all the way down to 67.11 the latest correction low posted on March 4th.
Now, this last move lower has been in response to concerns about the demand outlook for Oil across the rest of 2025 as President Trump’s tariffs on key trading partners Canada, Mexico and China took effect and were met by retaliatory tariffs back on US goods.
The fear is that an escalation of trade wars will negatively impact the global economy, and the ensuring slowdown will see the demand for Oil reduce.
Whether it does or not remains to be seen, but Oil prices may remain volatile across the rest of this week as traders receive more tariff updates and start to focus on key US economic data in the form of the US ISM Services PMI, released tomorrow at 1500 GMT, and then the all important US Non-farm Payrolls, which is released at 1330 GMT on Friday.
Technical Focus:
What is now interesting with the chart above, is that Tuesday is seeing breaks under the support offered by the uptrend, which if confirmed on a closing basis, may in turn suggest the possibility of a more extended phase of Oil price weakness.
This type of break lower in price is no guarantee of further declines and much will depend on future price sentiment and trends, but if it does happen, being aware of possible support levels, can be helpful.
Technical Update: Potential Oil Price Downside Focus
Previous correction lows are often a good place to start, as they have held declines before and seen prices rally, so are potentially areas where buyers maybe found again. With this in mind, 66.75, the November 18th low, or even 65.63, which was the September 10th low, may well be worth watching as possible support levels.
Now, if these lower supports do give way on a closing basis, it’s not out of the question from a longer term perspective that there could be potential for an even deeper decline. If this is the case, as highlighted on the chart above, it might prove to be 63.68, which was the May 2023 low, or even 61.91, which was the November 2021 low that could in time come into focus.
What if the Support Holds?
Now, with so much uncertainty, it is possible that these support levels hold, so having some potential resistance levels to consider if there is a bounce can also be useful.
Half of this week’s sell-off stands at 68.84, which if broken to the upside may suggest greater risks for continued Oil price strength. However, as recently proved to be the case when the market recovered into the 68.47 February 20th price high, it was the declining Bollinger mid-average that limited and then reversed the rally back to the downside.
So, it could be this mid-average, which currently stands at 70.95, that traders might feel is a more challenging resistance area to overcome. Certainly, it would need to be broken on an upside closing basis, before evidence might turn towards a more extended retracement of January/March price declines.
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OIL Weekly Timeframe
Zooming out to the weekly chart, price action is tightening inside a triangle defined by the green trendlines.
My bias is slightly bullish, due to the bullish RSI divergence, and the strong gray support zone.
But there hasn't been an upside reversal in smaller timeframes yet, so I'm still keeping an eye on price movements.
USOIL BULLS ARE GAINING STRENGTH|LONG
Hello, Friends!
We are now examining the USOIL pair and we can see that the pair is going down locally while also being in a downtrend on the 1W TF. But there is also a powerful signal from the BB lower band being nearby indicating that the pair is oversold so we can go long from the support line below and a target at 73.21 level.
✅LIKE AND COMMENT MY IDEAS✅
Oil Drops Below $68 Amid Trade Wars and Oversupply RisksCrude Oil drops on oversupply risks and weakening demand expectations
Key Events:
- Trade wars between the world’s largest economies heightens inflation and economic contraction risks
- OPEC plans to unwind supply cuts in April despite oversupply concerns.
- Trump - Ukraine dispute may disrupt oil's bearish trend if tensions escalate with the EU and Russia.
Key Levels:
Oil eyes a 4-year support zone ($63.80–$66), and the potential for the consolidation to extend above that zone persists.
- A close below $63.80 may extend declines to $61.50, $60, and $55 (aligning with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the 2020-2022 uptrend.
- A hold above $68.80 could cap gains at $70.50, $73.50, and $75.
Upside potential on Oil is expected to remain short-lived given the bearish implications of trade wars in tandem with oil's 2022 - 2025 dominant downtrend. A clean close above 78-80 zone may reinforce longer term bullish expectations.
- Razan Hilal, CMT
Oil drops againCrude oil rallied sharply last Thursday, but not by enough to push prices into positive territory for the week, let alone the month of February. It went on to sell off sharply yesterday, following a report that OPEC+ would not be extending their production cuts beyond April. The production cuts have been running since May 2023, and have been extended on several occasions. Most analysts believed that OPEC would roll over the cuts beyond April, given the supply dynamics that have kept prices subdued, along with a succession of downgrades to the demand growth outlook. It is now estimated that supply will be boosted by an additional 138,000 barrels per day, mostly from Saudi Arabia and Russia. With Trump’s tariffs on Mexico and Canada kicking in today, and with China retaliating against additional tariffs with levies of its own on US imports, the world trade situation is getting increasingly, and unnecessarily, complex. Front-month WTI continues to trade south of $70 per barrel and this will be its first hurdle on any rally attempt. The daily MACD is in negative territory, but it is not back to the kind of oversold levels from which big rallies have previously begun. Overall, it feels as if the bears have control, having driven back prices from the highs made in mid-January. Back then, crude looked as if it had finally broken out of a downtrend which had been building from September 2023. Crude was lower again this morning, shrugging off some relatively upbeat manufacturing data from China. Investors have yet to be convinced that the Chinese economy is ready to recover from its disastrous property collapse. This saw the evaporation of billions of yuan, with a significant proportion owned by private citizens, and the subsequent loss of confidence.
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WTI WeeklyConsidering all recent political events and the US Gov. efforts in line with wars ending, the Oil price drop is more likely to happen as the weekly chart seems to complete its B triangle pattern and start the C wave.
OIL UPWARD TREND UPCOMING SOONThis chart shows WTI Crude Oil (CFDs) on a 4-hour timeframe. The price is currently approaching a key support level around 67.75, with an order block indicated. After a recent decline, the target is set at 70.00, suggesting a potential upward movement if the support level holds. Traders should watch for confirmation of a bounce from the support zone towards the target level of 70.00.
USOIL POTENTIAL BUYS On M15 Timeframe USOIL is showing a lot of buying momentum due its manner on this particular time frame. So am expecting price to rise to resistance 70.55
Entry:69.43
Stoploss:68.97
Take Profit:70.56
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Crude - Further downside expectedFollow up on this:
Price shot up to test the triangle trendline once again. Now the price is trading very close to a very strong support level.
Based on Elliott Waves, I expect this level to break to make a new low, at least till $58-$60. Since this is the last leg of correction, it is likely to be a sharp drop.
Sell on USOIL ..my idea on USOIL, USOIL current on 4h demand zone. But there's a supply zone formed in the15min that may cause a short term sell.
USOIL As we can see price is approaching the previous highs that supply was made .This level is now a resistance point . In current trades , traders can secure a profit target at that level .
Now If the price breaks that level which is 70.32, we can expect price to further on continue a bullish movement towards 71.13 after a break and retest depending on the momentum of the market .
Traders are therefore encouraged to look at these key levels if we expect a beginning of a bullish trend.
Further swings could be aimed at 71.55 - 71.98
Wish you the best of luck 💯
Crude ProspectGuys, it is time to start buying in from 65 dollars.
GET READY AND FULL IN FROM 65!!!!!!!
We will aim for 80 first averaging 60-65$, SL of 10 dollars😁
