A breakout is inevitable...Ive been watching this triangle that could go either way and wanted to share
XAGCAD trade ideas
2022-02-23 XAG CAD - bullish breakoutSilver looking to break Q4 2021 high.
Moving toward higher end of past 3 quarter range.
Inflecting around 200 week average.
Low risk breakout play and looking for smaller time frames to add positions for free trades.
Ideally this breakout area gets validated over next 2 to 3 weeks.
2021-06-10 XAG CAD - long4hr chart is showing a grind higher. Reverse head and shoulders.
Reverse head and shoulders has broken up not super pretty.
SILVER FOR SALE!!We can see on the weekly charts that silver has been in consolidation for months and weakening heading near a weakly low zone. As the Fed continues to print more and more money inflating the American monetary supply and deflating the dollar this could potentially be a great opportunity for investors to accumulate a real tangible asset that you can hedge against the dollar.
XAGUSD vs XAGCAD? More important than you might think.I have been looking at XAGUSD vs XAGCAD, with the theory that the relative performance of the pairs could be a signal. In this scenario, CAD should be thought of as a proxy for commodities, of which Silver is just one. The USD is acting as a measure of the wider economy, and the role Silver plays in it.
Starting with the long term then, some general notes. The CAD (main chart) persistently pegs more closely to the price of silver, as you might expect. It has lower highs, and higher lows. Priced in Silver, CAD is less volatile. USD on the other hand, fluctuates above and below this line, with important potential observations. Notice the considerable difference between the two charts today, a potential for catch up is coming?
We can see highlighted important regions. In green, the 2011 Silver and commodity bull market. Silver in USD significantly outperformed, more detail on that later. In red, we see the 2011 to 2020 bear market. Significant under performance of silver is highlighted. We will see some more detail of that in a bit as well, as there are some important differences today. Finally, the period today is highlighted, which appears to be under performed. More on that later.
Next, let's get more into the thesis. Here is the consolidation phase of the 2008 bear market. We see persistent and significant out performance, almost without exception from where you set the time scale. The difference grows to as much as 30% in several parts, all before the real bull market begins. Most of this can be seen around $25, which was the previous interim top from 2006.
The Silver Bull Market. The growth in XAGUSD continues throughout the process. The top in this cycle is amazingly formed as CAD reaches it's highest point in 40 years vs the USD, in April of 2011. Two months later, the CAD begins it's 30% retreat to the twenty year lows. Measured from December 2008, the performance of XAGUSD peaks in the region of +100% vs XAGCAD (This depends on the start and end date of course).
The Crash; Although not obvious initially, the XAGUSD Line dips below XAGCAD and stays below, which seems to confirm this bear market. This limits this relationship for picking tops, I admit.
The bear market 2011 to 2016. I've highlighted how the market consistently fails to outperform XAGUSD vs XAGCAD. Even during the 'Bull' run of 2016, there is only a brief, 3 month period where it is even possible to show out performance of XAGUSD, from Nov 2015 to Mar 2016. Move the chart and see for yourself. This signal is squashed even before the bull market begins, which could have been a warning sign as XAGUSD failed to break out relative to XAGCAD.
2016 to 2020. A mixed signal? The consolidation of 2016 to 2020 was mixed, there was no clear under performance, but neither did it outperform. Using the full consolidation phase, we cannot see a breakout today.
Today; While no breakout is clear, there are perhaps signs this has changed with this current phase. From the March lows, we can now see Silver in USD is clearly outpacing Silver in CAD, although not yet by as much as in the 2008-2011 cycle.
This could mean either;
The signal is registering a false breakout. Although unlike the 2016 and earlier interim tops, this out performance has lasted almost a full year. Something that has not happened since 2008.
We are still in the early stages of this bull market. Look for this comparison to breakout with a 20 to 30 point difference. This is not hard to see as possible, considering how far XAGUSD needs to catch up just to where XAGCAD is today. And considering that when it does, it tends to overshoot, this could be further confirmation that this party has just started.
Takeaways; Look for this comparison to breakout to the upside 20 to 30 points, which could then continue for months to years. A spike in the USD is not out of the cards as always, and would be negative for this relationship. If XAGUSD remained neutral in that scenario, I would be very bullish however. This relationship currently has about 10% cushion to allow that without dropping XAGUSD below XAGCAD. A spike in the USD driving this ratio down would also need to persist for several months to indicate this is not Silver's time. Top in the relationship should be formed by a significant high in the CAD.
Lost confidence in the cad I have been stacking silver for about a year now. I believe the Canadian dollar will fall to new lows as the debt climbs and our gdp shrinks. Silver is now the rarest metal in the world due to the costs to mine it are greater than to mine it. Central banks may try to print their way out of this and that is what I expect. I have 1000 dollar price target on silver due to the consolidation for the past 7 years and once silver breaks 50 an oz I believe silver will have a massive run. Silver is hard to find even at dealers. How bad will this depression be? No one knows but the civil unrest and terrorism in the USA displayed this week will have people thinking the stock market isn’t as safe as the fed is saying it is. Let me know what I think. I am curious what other people think about deflation or inflation and the cad.
go with the direction of the break periodttI just love charts and price action. Am i making money. Hell nah. In fact, I lost 10 racks.
good luck to yall this is analysis just for my studying and collecting data. peace ma people
Manage thy risk and let ur percentages compound or gamble away.
SILVER IS BEING ACCUMULATED!NEAR PICTURE-PERFECT WYCKOFF ACCUMULATION METHOD!
CORRESPONDING PRICE-VOLUME SPREADS!
DIPS ARE EXCELLENT ENTRIES FOR RETAIL INVESTORS AND TRADERS!
$XAGCAD is retracting. Looks like XAGCAD is retracting from 0.5 Fib and now might go up again. I personally will enter trade above 22.85 which is monthly pivot point. Also, looks like CAD is going to experience significant devaluation soon according to one of the respected Canadian traders @TheMacroTourist who has amazing article about only G7 country with inverted yield curve.
Please do your own research and use stop loss or hedge
Long silverEasy one silver long. High demand and lack of silver exploration. Silver is used is almost every electronic including electric cars. Love silver here. Made a nice low with a huge bull rally. Only bought 100oz But hedged my position with a 2x bull etf.
XAG CAD BUY (SILVER - CANADIAN DOLLAR)Hi there. Price is forming a continuation pattern to the upside. Wait for the price to complete the pattern and watch strong price action for buy.
Long in the long run, but short over the next month or twoFrom what I can tell, this upward movement has been a retrace and not a trend revesral (in the bigger picture). This is a quick analysis of the recent market movements and should NOT be used as financial advice. I am likely to be wrong and so this is mostly for just tracking purposes.
XAG/CAD LongYesterday morning, I noticed this candle on the 1h chart of XAG/CAD , we see the latest offers to be filled (arrow), which gave me a good signal for a possible turnaround, which is produced this morning, the market has even been higher.
On the 1D chart, we notice that the market is likely to change trend, today it is "testing" its resistance, but I believe that next week we will have the beginning of an uptrend, the blue boxes are my targets. Looking for a little pullback
Silver daily update (CAD chart)Silver looks ready for another impulse very soon.
We also have some records positions in the COT right now, check cotbase.com on silver.
Trade at your own risk!
Silver Bullion (XAGCAD) FINAL BEAR MARKET CONSOLIDATIONLast few years has been tough on silver bullion investors, but thankfully I only started my investing at 2013 bottom. Silver continues to consolidate, and underperform. I expect momentum on the downside, but I advise long term investors to take it as opportunity to buy. In 2019 - 2020, consolidation ought to be coming to an end and the momentum on the upside should commence in short order. Investing in Silver bullion now, versus indices and certain equities is good investment. That being said, the gold to silver ratio does indicate continued weakness in the silver space so I wouldn't discount continued weakness in the commodity. On the upside, silver versus gold is rapidly approaching lows not seen since I was born in the early to mid 1990s. THIS IS A GENERATIONAL OPPORTUNITY
Price expectations for the year in CAD $18 - $24 (with potential to go as low as $16.50)
Price expectations for the year in USD $14 - 19 (with potential to go as low as $12 - 13)
Silver to drop / flag on 4hSilver looks ready to fall on 4h, still a buy on daily.
Trade at your own risk!
