XAGUSD long ideaExpecting higher prices from this point; we took out HTF liquidity and left an SMT between gold and silver. The 50% level of this range is a potential area for partials.
XAGUSD trade ideas
How To Validate Supply and Demand ZonesHey,
In this video I explain the inner workings of imbalance zones and how to convert them to trade-able supply and demand zones. I also share how I draw them in and how I validate them for trading.
Hope you like it! Let me know :)
Max
Look inside Silvers 4HR d/bottom, we find a bull trap!
This is what Silver wants us to believe to draw in renewed buying under 30.0.
They want to promote a false representation of Long-entry-buying, by cultivating this fake D/bottom on 4hr timeframe and I think 1hr and 2hr.
Check out the 1,2,3 minute timeframes and herein lies the bull-trap today. It's a bears head n'shoulders which when triggers will cause selling to sweep straight through these double bottoms even though they are on higher time frames.
It will be a huge silver sell-off and there was already one in the Asia session today.
Is it just me, or do you often wonder how these patterns get written at such pivotal points..?
I'm ready for a sell-off tonight in silver which will trigger the sell into gold.
Trading is risky. My thoughts only and I have not replicated ideas from anyone else. The only 1 news item I was influenced on today was for bearish prices in gold for the rest of the year, supply demand thing.
You will find a silver story from 2hours ago here.
www.tradingview.com
On gold:
www.tradingview.com
Happy thanks-giving USA. I understand you won't have a market today.
Two possible way for Silver, let seeI think there is two options to chose now, for those not selling yet, wait for it to break the low, then look for small time frame consolidation then only sell.
It is possible one more up to complete the third leg up, then only down. However, I will stick for sell because the AO/MACD indicator all are red in color (selling signal).
Trade with patient, waiting the right time may become the winning point for everyone.
Silver Anatomy: Elliot Wave Insights PT IIGreetings, Everyone
In part two of our silver update, I will dive into the structures of Elliott Wave Theory, focusing on Impulse Waves and Corrective Waves.
Let’s break down these components for a deeper understanding.
Understanding the Types of Waves
Impulse Waves (1-3-5)
Impulse waves are powerful, directional moves characterized by strong momentum. These waves typically occur in the direction of the main trend, with Wave 3 often being the most dominant.
Corrective Waves (2-4)
Corrective waves are pauses or pullbacks in the trend, often seen as sideways price action. They take forms such as:
• Flat Patterns
• Triangles
• Zigzags (a sharp, back-and-forth movement).
Using RSI to Analyze Waves
The RSI provides valuable insight into wave structures:
• Vertical lines mark the RSI peaks corresponding to major impulse waves.
• Colored boxes on the RSI panel highlight key areas to watch.
Key Impulse Wave Rules
• Wave 1: Marks the beginning of the trend reversal, confirmed by the RSI breaking above the zero line and the histogram turning green.
• Wave 3: Typically the strongest and longest wave in the sequence.
Key Corrective Wave Rules
• Wave 2: Does not retrace 100% of Wave 1. In this case, note how the RSI dips below the previous impulse level. An expanded flat pattern with a large B-wave exceeding the prior impulse is also evident.
• Wave 4: Should not close below the level of Wave 1.
Rule of Alternation
• If Wave 2 is simple (small), then Wave 4 will likely be complex (large), and vice versa.
Support and Resistance Dynamics
Observe the green boxes in the price chart marking major pivot points, which often signal the end of corrective waves. These pivots align with critical support and resistance levels, frequently igniting substantial rallies thereafter.
Analyzing Bias & Executing
Trading Probability
In my enthusiasm, I anticipated a significant breakout (bias) at the triangle peak of Wave 5, as outlined in my second silver trading post.
I had drawn a triangle breakout expecting an upward move. While my bias led me to the wrong conclusion, my analysis itself wasn’t incorrect—the triangle did break out, but it moved to the downside instead against by bias.
As previously mentioned, when a pattern fails, it often leads to dramatic price action in the opposite direction.
For those who stayed objective and followed the chart rather than their bias, this presented a prime opportunity.
The downside breakout retraced the entire impulse cycle in a remarkably short period of time, showcasing the power of trading without assumptions. It leads to question how can we stay objective while in these trades?
The answer I found is to always be referencing key manual & guides.
Fibonacci Applications for Traders by Robert Fischer provides a valuable solution to the dilemma I encountered (not sponsored or paid, by the way).
In one section, Fischer mentions that “following the Elliott wave concept will lead you to not buy in an uptrend at the end of Wave 3.”
To elaborated more on this idea — it is best to avoid buying wave 4s because Wave 5 is sometimes truncated or fails to materialize altogether, leading to a price reversal.
This insight answers many questions about why wave 5 is so difficult to trade. Will it extend, will it be shorter? Will it be a .618 measurement of wave 1, 1 exact measurement of wave 1, will it extend to 1.618, or will it fail?
One key rule he emphasizes is that, in an Elliott Wave cycle, only three waves may exist under certain conditions—challenging the assumption of a full five-wave sequence.
Trading Strategy Improvements
1. Enter at Wave 2 Retracement Levels
• Focus on taking a large position at Wave 2 retracement levels, but only after confirmation of a reversal.
(Human tendency): We often experience FOMO when prices are high. However, history shows that chasing during high-FOMO moments usually signals a peak. Patience pays off at retracement levels.
2. Pyramid Positions During Wave 3
• Gradually scale aggressively into your position as Wave 3 begins moving with strong momentum. This allows you to capitalize on the high-octane movement of the impulse wave by adding to a winning trade.
3. Exit Around Wave 3.3 or 3.5
• Scale out of your position during the middle or later part of Wave 3. Exiting while the momentum remains strong ensures you lock in gains before the trend begins to fade.
Conclusion
By combining Elliott Wave Theory with RSI analysis, we gain clearer insight into market dynamics, helping us anticipate potential turning points with greater confidence.
Bullish On Precious Metals XAGUSD A breakout of this triangle pattern allows bullish momentum to continue which I think will lead to a top at around ~$400
This creates a nice angled W pattern
Bullish on precious metals as crypto continues to melt faces
SILVER RISKY LONG|
✅SILVER is going down to retest a horizontal support of 29.72$
Which makes me locally bullish biased
And I think that we will see a rebound
And a move up from the level
Towards the target above at 30.72$
LONG🚀
✅Like and subscribe to never miss a new idea!✅
The Anatomy of a Downtrend: A case study of silver XAGUSDTopic 1: Downtrend analysis
Introduction:
This post serves two purposes: to educate readers and to act as a personal reference tool for future analysis.
We’ll be reviewing recent price action in Silver (XAGUSD) , offering valuable insights that apply not just to commodities but also to equities. This sequence of events, while varying in scale, repeats itself across all time frames—daily, monthly, yearly. As a rule, the higher the time frame, the greater the potential returns.
Rant
We don’t need a million strategies. We don’t need overpriced guru courses claiming to deliver “10,000% gainers” (cue eye roll). What we need is a solid understanding of market behavior and the tools to make informed decisions.
Preface
Due to charting limitations, I’ve compressed the information here. Additional research may be necessary for a full understanding.
This analysis incorporates:
• Classical Chart Patterns (Part 1)
• Elliott Wave Theory (Part 2)
• Support & Resistance Levels (Blended)
Getting Started: Understanding Trend Reversal
Silver Price Peak
Notice the rejection at $34.86 red circle on October 24. Silver spiralled lower, first to $33.08, briefly rebounded to $34.58, but lost momentum and rolled over again big purple circle.
Reversal Peak
Draw a trendline from $34.5 down to $30.615, connecting as many wicks as possible. Pay attention to the price swings during this dramatic decline.
Downtrend Sequence
Silver followed this classic pattern of lower highs and lower lows:
1. Swing Low
2. Lower High
3. Lower Low
4. Lower High
5. Lower Low
Tip: Identifying Swing Extremes
Use your drawing tool to circle ⭕️ or draw a square ⬛️the major swing points—areas where price reacted most sharply or moved the furthest before reversing. These are key reference points for understanding market structure.
Potential Reversal
Price broke out of its down trend and subsequently broke over its (lowest high) last purple swing point.
At this point price formed a new high green circle 🟢 however a (higher lower) has not yet been confirmed on the higher time frame.
In the next post, I’ll dive into the lower time frames, focusing on Elliott Wave Theory and key observations since the trendline break.
If you found this analysis helpful, please leave a like and share your thoughts in the comments—thank you!
Short SilverSilver broke the low and I think it will fall lower up to next resistance level.
The only problem which I see is what is stop loss level because it is already too far from last swing.
Working off the fall of Silver. H4 26.11.2024Working off the fall of Silver 📉
Silver continues to fall, which I showed in the last analysis . On Monday we got a pushing volume down and if they give a new pullback, I advise to sell with targets around 29 and below. There is still potential for decrease. Major volumes remained up, major segment is also overlapped down and DPOC contract near 31.30 accumulated which gave a reaction down.
CAPITALCOM:SILVER
$SILVERDixie loosing key level and this bubba at key support
surely, we giga chad from here
close above thick blue line pls
careful with a quickie stop hunt
Silver Trade IdeaSilver pared most of its gains on easing Geo political tension. It hit a low of $29.98 and currently trading around $30.33.
The AI chip market is expected to grow rapidly, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 38.16% from 2024 to 2033, increasing the demand for silver used in microchips and electronics. Total silver demand could reach 1.2 billion ounces in 2024, with industrial use, especially in the AI sector, contributing significantly. The push for green energy will also boost silver demand as it is vital for solar panels and renewable energy technologies. Additionally, the growth of electric vehicles (EVs) will increase silver use since each EV contains about 25 grams of silver. Overall, silver prices are likely to rise above $30 per ounce due to demand outpacing supply and a projected shortfall in production.
The minutes suggest that more rate cuts may happen, with another possible cut in December. While inflation is easing, it is still above the Fed's 2% target, and employment gains have slowed, though unemployment remains low.
Current Market Indicators
The gold-silver ratio is currently at 86.54, showing that gold has outperformed gold recently. A ratio above 80 suggests silver might become a more attractive investment compared to gold.
Technical Analysis: Key Levels to Watch
For trading, the major level to monitor is $30. Silver is below key moving averages, with near-term support at $30. If it falls below this, it could target $29.60/$28.47. On the upside, immediate resistance is at $30.80; breaking this could lead to targets of $31.25/$31.75,$32.20, $32.75, $33, $33.60, $34, $34.50, and even $34.73.
Trading Strategy: Opportunities in the Current Market
It may be a good strategy to buy on dips around $29.60, with a stop-loss at $28.47 and a target price of $31.75.
Silver Trade IdeaSilver pared most of its gains on easing Geo political tension. It hit a low of $29.98 and currently trading around $30.33.
The AI chip market is expected to grow rapidly, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 38.16% from 2024 to 2033, increasing the demand for silver used in microchips and electronics. Total silver demand could reach 1.2 billion ounces in 2024, with industrial use, especially in the AI sector, contributing significantly. The push for green energy will also boost silver demand as it is vital for solar panels and renewable energy technologies. Additionally, the growth of electric vehicles (EVs) will increase silver use since each EV contains about 25 grams of silver. Overall, silver prices are likely to rise above $30 per ounce due to demand outpacing supply and a projected shortfall in production.
The minutes suggest that more rate cuts may happen, with another possible cut in December. While inflation is easing, it is still above the Fed's 2% target, and employment gains have slowed, though unemployment remains low.
Current Market Indicators
The gold-silver ratio is currently at 86.54, showing that gold has outperformed gold recently. A ratio above 80 suggests silver might become a more attractive investment compared to gold.
Technical Analysis: Key Levels to Watch
For trading, the major level to monitor is $30. Silver is below key moving averages, with near-term support at $30. If it falls below this, it could target $29.60/$28.47. On the upside, immediate resistance is at $30.80; breaking this could lead to targets of $31.25/$31.75,$32.20, $32.75, $33, $33.60, $34, $34.50, and even $34.73.
Trading Strategy: Opportunities in the Current Market
It may be a good strategy to buy on dips around $29.60, with a stop-loss at $28.47 and a target price of $31.75.
The Silver Bulls!Looking to buy silver as structure has shifted bullish on the hourly TF, which aligns with the inducement being taken on the daily TF.
Already have a risk entry set on the LTF as a chain is starting to form, this could potentially be the start of the daily swing run. Meaning that price might not always mitigate the extreme POI and would rather mitigate the decisional or form a LTF model after taking out the inducement.
Bearish drop?The Silver (XAG/USD) is rising towards the pivot which has been identified as an overlap resistance and could drop to the 1st support which acts as an overlap support.
Pivot: 30.80
1st Support: 29.68
1st Resistance: 31.52
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The big XAG LongPlaying the potential Wave 3 for Silver.
My invalidation will be a weekly close below the highlighted demand zone.
XAGUSD, Bullish Momentum again . From the Low of Aug to High of Oct Silver gave a good impulsive move , then a A-B-C correction , Shorter TF below Daily the C wave was an extended C and did the Depth of Correction( Correction up to 4th of one lesser degree).
Now looks like a new impulse to start 1&2 done with 78% retracement where 2 is a sharp correction . I have placed a entry 30.29 and got it SL is 30.22 Target 1 is 31.52 and final target may be 32.99. This is not a investment advice but sharing it for my own learning and education purpose only .
XAU/USD 26.11.2024OANDA:XAUUSD
Hello Traders, after November 25, the market moved down as calculated. I would now interpret this as a small ABC correction (orange count). I am currently looking for bullish momentum for the move from B to C.
Silver AnalysisThe chart is in a bearish phase on the daily timeframe. Given the price movement, support around the 29.140 level is not unexpected. With proper risk management, a buy position can be considered in this area.
This analysis is based on price action, multi-timeframe analysis, and ICT (Inner Circle Trader) methodology.
This analysis is brought to you by the FXonbit Traders Team
Bearish drop off 50% Fibonacci resistance?XAG/USD is rising towards the resistance level which is an overlap resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could drop from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 30.75
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 31.55
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level.
Take profit: 29.667
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
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SILVER (XAGUSD): Downtrend Emerges from ResistanceThe price of SILVER (XAGUSD) is showing bearish momentum after testing key resistance levels marked by both horizontal and vertical trend lines.
Initially, the pair consolidated within a range but experienced a sharp decline upon testing a descending trend line.
This movement breached the range's support with a decisive bearish candle, suggesting further downside potential. The price is likely to continue falling, with a target set at 30.00.
SILVER (XAGUSD): Bearish Move From Resistance The price of SILVER appears to be bearish following a test of significant resistance levels, based on a horizontal and vertical trend line.
Initially, the pair traded within a range before dropping sharply after testing a downward trend line.
This move broke through the support of the trading range with a strong bearish candle. It is likely that the price will continue to decrease, with a target of 30.00.
SILVER POTENTIAL BOUNCE PLAY BUY OPPORTUNITYHey everyone hope you are having an amazing day! I just wanted to come make another post here on this Thanksgiving week here in the States and give some insight to what I see for the commodity Silver! Hope this brings some value and you guys can pull some nuggets from this! Cheers
OK so here is a breakdown based on each timeframe for what I am seeing!!
1W (Weekly) Timeframe:
**price is overall bullish
**price is coming back to a previous area of demand (buyers)
**weekly fib retracement confluence with level
1D (Daily) Timeframe:
**price is coming to previous demand around $29 per ounce
**will be at a extreme discount zone (relevant to current market trend)
**may be in oversold conditions on the RSI tool
4H (Hourly) Timeframe:
**waiting to watch how price momentum from sellers is coming into zone
**waiting for lower timeframe confluence
Hope you guys enjoy this post please boost and follow the page for more analysis and potential setups! Cheers!
